Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

First measurement of coherent ρ0 photoproduction in ultra-peripheral Xe–Xe collisions at √sNN = 5.44 TeV

The first measurement of the coherent photoproduction of ρ0 vector mesons in ultra-peripheral Xe–Xe collisions at sNN=5.44 TeV is presented. This result, together with previous HERA γp data and γ–Pb measurements from ALICE, describes the atomic number (A) dependence of this process, which is particularly sensitive to nuclear shadowing effects and to the approach to the black-disc limit of QCD at a semi-hard scale. The cross section of the Xe+Xe→ρ0+Xe+Xe process, measured at midrapidity through the decay channel ρ0→π+π−, is found to be dσ/dy=131.5±5.6(stat.)−16.9+17.5(syst.) mb. The ratio of the continuum to resonant contributions for the production of pion pairs is also measured. In addition, the fraction of events accompanied by electromagnetic dissociation of either one or both colliding nuclei is reported. The dependence on A of cross section for the coherent ρ0 photoproduction at a centre-of-mass energy per nucleon of the γA system of WγA,n=65 GeV is found to be consistent with a power-law behaviour σ(γA→ρ0A)∝Aα with a slope α=0.96±0.02(syst.). This slope signals important shadowing effects, but it is still far from the behaviour expected in the black-disc limit.publishedVersio

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified

A(c)(+) Production and Baryon-to-Meson Ratios in pp and p-Pb Collisions at root S-NN=5.02 TeV at the LHC

The prompt production of the charm baryon \u39bc+ and the \u39bc+/D0 production ratios were measured at midrapidity with the ALICE detector in pp and p-Pb collisions at sNN=5.02 TeV. These new measurements show a clear decrease of the \u39bc+/D0 ratio with increasing transverse momentum (pT) in both collision systems in the range 2<12 GeV/c, exhibiting similarities with the light-flavor baryon-to-meson ratios p/\u3c0 and \u39b/KS0. At low pT, predictions that include additional color-reconnection mechanisms beyond the leading-color approximation, assume the existence of additional higher-mass charm-baryon states, or include hadronization via coalescence can describe the data, while predictions driven by charm-quark fragmentation processes measured in e+e- and e-p collisions significantly underestimate the data. The results presented in this Letter provide significant evidence that the established assumption of universality (colliding-system independence) of parton-to-hadron fragmentation is not sufficient to describe charm-baryon production in hadronic collisions at LHC energies

A(c)(+) Production and Baryon-to-Meson Ratios in pp and p-Pb Collisions at root S-NN=5.02 TeV at the LHC

The prompt production of the charm baryon Λ_{c}^{+} and the Λ_{c}^{+}/D^{0} production ratios were measured at midrapidity with the ALICE detector in pp and p-Pb collisions at sqrt[s_{NN}]=5.02  TeV. These new measurements show a clear decrease of the Λ_{c}^{+}/D^{0} ratio with increasing transverse momentum (p_{T}) in both collision systems in the range 2<p_{T}<12  GeV/c, exhibiting similarities with the light-flavor baryon-to-meson ratios p/π and Λ/K_{S}^{0}. At low p_{T}, predictions that include additional color-reconnection mechanisms beyond the leading-color approximation, assume the existence of additional higher-mass charm-baryon states, or include hadronization via coalescence can describe the data, while predictions driven by charm-quark fragmentation processes measured in e^{+}e^{-} and e^{-}p collisions significantly underestimate the data. The results presented in this Letter provide significant evidence that the established assumption of universality (colliding-system independence) of parton-to-hadron fragmentation is not sufficient to describe charm-baryon production in hadronic collisions at LHC energies

Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

Background Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications. Methods We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC). Findings In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683–0·717]). Interpretation In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required. Funding British Journal of Surgery Society

Jet-associated deuteron production in pp collisions at s=13 TeV

Deuteron production in high-energy collisions is sensitive to the space–time evolution of the collision system, and is typically described by a coalescence mechanism. For the first time, we present results on jet-associated deuteron production in pp collisions at s=13 TeV, providing an opportunity to test the established picture for deuteron production in events with a hard scattering. Using a trigger particle with high transverse-momentum (pT>5 GeV/c) as a proxy for the presence of a jet at midrapidity, we observe a measurable population of deuterons being produced around the jet proxy. The associated deuteron yield measured in a narrow angular range around the trigger particle differs by 2.4–4.8 standard deviations from the uncorrelated background. The data are described by PYTHIA model calculations featuring baryon coalescence