Risk management to prioritise the eradication of new and emerging invasive non-native species

Robust tools are needed to prioritise the management of invasive non-native species (INNS). Risk assessment is commonly used to prioritise INNS, but fails to take into account the feasibility of management. Risk management provides a structured evaluation of management options, but has received little attention to date. We present a risk management scheme to assess the feasibility of eradicating INNS that can be used, in conjunction with existing risk assessment schemes, to support prioritisation. The Non-Native Risk Management scheme (NNRM) can be applied to any predefined area and any taxa. It uses semi-quantitative response and confidence scores to assess seven key criteria: Effectiveness, Practicality, Cost, Impact, Acceptability, Window of opportunity and Likelihood of re-invasion. Scores are elicited using expert judgement, supported by available evidence, and consensus-building methods. We applied the NNRM to forty-one INNS that threaten Great Britain (GB). Thirty-three experts provided scores, with overall feasibility of eradication assessed as ‘very high’ (8 species), ‘high’ (6), ‘medium’ (8), ‘low’ (10) and ‘very low’ (9). The feasibility of eradicating terrestrial species was higher than aquatic species. Lotic freshwater and marine species scored particularly low. Combining risk management and existing risk assessment scores identified six established species as priorities for eradication. A further six species that are not yet established were identified as priorities for eradication on arrival as part of contingency planning. The NNRM is one of the first INNS risk management schemes that can be used with existing risk assessments to prioritise INNS eradication in any area

Integration and continuity of primary care: polyclinics and alternatives - a patient-centred analysis of how organisation constrains care co-ordination

Background An ageing population, the increasing specialisation of clinical services and diverse health-care provider ownership make the co-ordination and continuity of complex care increasingly problematic. The way in which the provision of complex health care is co-ordinated produces – or fails to produce – six forms of continuity of care (cross-sectional, longitudinal, flexible, access, informational and relational). Care co-ordination is accomplished by a combination of activities by patients themselves; provider organisations; care networks co-ordinating the separate provider organisations; and overall health-system governance. This research examines how far organisational integration might promote care co-ordination at the clinical level. Objectives To examine (1) what differences the organisational integration of primary care makes, compared with network governance, to horizontal and vertical co-ordination of care; (2) what difference provider ownership (corporate, partnership, public) makes; (3) how much scope either structure allows for managerial discretion and ‘performance’; (4) differences between networked and hierarchical governance regarding the continuity and integration of primary care; and (5) the implications of the above for managerial practice in primary care. Methods Multiple-methods design combining (1) the assembly of an analytic framework by non-systematic review; (2) a framework analysis of patients’ experiences of the continuities of care; (3) a systematic comparison of organisational case studies made in the same study sites; (4) a cross-country comparison of care co-ordination mechanisms found in our NHS study sites with those in publicly owned and managed Swedish polyclinics; and (5) the analysis and synthesis of data using an ‘inside-out’ analytic strategy. Study sites included professional partnership, corporate and publicly owned and managed primary care providers, and different configurations of organisational integration or separation of community health services, mental health services, social services and acute inpatient care. Results Starting from data about patients’ experiences of the co-ordination or under-co-ordination of care, we identified five care co-ordination mechanisms present in both the integrated organisations and the care networks; four main obstacles to care co-ordination within the integrated organisations, of which two were also present in the care networks; seven main obstacles to care co-ordination that were specific to the care networks; and nine care co-ordination mechanisms present in the integrated organisations. Taking everything into consideration, integrated organisations appeared more favourable to producing continuities of care than did care networks. Network structures demonstrated more flexibility in adding services for small care groups temporarily, but the expansion of integrated organisations had advantages when adding new services on a longer term and a larger scale. Ownership differences affected the range of services to which patients had direct access; primary care doctors’ managerial responsibilities (relevant to care co-ordination because of their impact on general practitioner workload); and the scope for doctors to develop special interests. We found little difference between integrated organisations and care networks in terms of managerial discretion and performance. Conclusions On balance, an integrated organisation seems more likely to favour the development of care co-ordination and, therefore, continuities of care than a system of care networks. At least four different variants of ownership and management of organisationally integrated primary care providers are practicable in NHS-like settings. Future research is therefore required, above all to evaluate comparatively the different techniques for coordinating patient discharge across the triple interface between hospitals, general practices and community health services; and to discover what effects increasing the scale and scope of general practice activities will have on continuity of care

Causal inference and large‐scale expert validation shed light on the drivers of SDM accuracy and variance

Aim: To develop a causal understanding of the drivers of Species distribution model (SDM) performance. Location: United Kingdom (UK). Methods: We measured the accuracy and variance of SDMs fitted for 518 species of invertebrate and plant in the UK. Our measure of variance reflects variation among replicate model fits, and taxon experts assessed model accuracy. Using directed acyclic graphs, we developed a causal model depicting plausible effects of explanatory variables (e.g. species' prevalence, sample size) on SDM accuracy and variance and quantified those effects using a multilevel piecewise path model. Results: According to our model, sample size and niche completeness (proportion of a species' niche covered by sampling) directly affect SDM accuracy and variance. Prevalence and range completeness have indirect effects mediated by sample size. Challenging conventional wisdom, we found that the effect of prevalence on SDM accuracy is positive. This reflects the facts that sample size has a positive effect on accuracy and larger sample sizes are possible for widespread species. It is possible, however, that the omission of an unobserved confounder biased this effect. Previous studies, which reported negative correlations between prevalence and SDM accuracy, conditioned on sample size. Main conclusions: Our model explicates the causal basis of previously reported correlations between SDM performance and species/data characteristics. It also suggests that niche completeness has similarly large effects on SDM accuracy and variance as sample size. Analysts should consider niche completeness, or proxies thereof, in addition to sample size when deciding whether modelling is worthwhile

A sampling strategy for genome sequencing the British terrestrial arthropod fauna

The Darwin Tree of Life (DToL) project aims to sequence and assemble high-quality genomes from all eukaryote species in Britain and Ireland, with the first phase of the project concentrating on family-level coverage plus species of particular ecological, biomedical or evolutionary interest. We summarise the processes involved in (1) assessing the UK arthropod fauna and the status of individual species on UK lists; (2) prioritising and collecting species for initial genome sequencing; (3) handling methods to ensure that high-quality genomic DNA is preserved; and (4) compiling standard operating procedures for processing specimens for genome sequencing, identification verification and voucher specimen curation. We briefly explore some lessons learned from the pilot phase of DToL and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic

Annual estimates of occupancy for bryophytes, lichens and invertebrates in the UK, 1970–2015

Here, we determine annual estimates of occupancy and species trends for 5,293 UK bryophytes, lichens, and invertebrates, providing national scale information on UK biodiversity change for 31 taxonomic groups for the time period 1970 to 2015. The dataset was produced through the application of a Bayesian occupancy modelling framework to species occurrence records supplied by 29 national recording schemes or societies (n = 24,118,549 records). In the UK, annual measures of species status from fine scale data (e.g. 1 × 1 km) had previously been limited to a few taxa for which structured monitoring data are available, mainly birds, butterflies, bats and a subset of moth species. By using an occupancy modelling framework designed for use with relatively low recording intensity data, we have been able to estimate species trends and generate annual estimates of occupancy for taxa where annual trend estimates and status were previously limited or unknown at this scale. These data broaden our knowledge of UK biodiversity and can be used to investigate variation in and drivers of biodiversity change

The genome sequence of the Large Brook Dun, Ecdyonurus torrentis (Kimmins, 1942) [version 1; peer review: 2 approved]

We present a genome assembly from an individual female Ecdyonurus torrentis (the Large Brook Dun; Arthropoda; Insecta; Ephemeroptera; Heptageniidae). The genome sequence is 503.2 megabases in span. Most of the assembly is scaffolded into 11 chromosomal pseudomolecules, including the X sex chromosome. The mitochondrial genome has also been assembled and is 15.69 kilobases in length

The vulnerability of British aquatic insects to climate change

Freshwater ecosystems are particularly at risk from climate change due to the intrinsic link between the physical properties of the water environment and those species that live there. Mayflies, stoneflies and caddisflies are key indicators of the health of freshwater environments and their biological traits and ecological preferences determine their vulnerability to climate change. Traits and preferences for 289 British species were analysed, with voltinism, length of flight period, altitudinal preference and affinity to headwaters being the main factors causing vulnerability. Sixteen species were deemed to be at risk from climate change. These species are distributed across Great Britain, but particular hotspots of vulnerability are present in upland areas. These areas should be targeted with mitigation measures to reduce the impacts of climate change on populations of aquatic insects

Urban Biodiversity: Successes and Challanges: Brownfields: oases of urban biodiversity

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The genome sequence of the black needle fly, Leuctra nigra (Olivier, 1811) [version 1; peer review: 2 approved]

We present a genome assembly from an individual male Leuctra nigra (black needle fly; Arthropoda; Insecta; Plecoptera; Leuctridae). The genome sequence is 536.3 megabases in span. Most of the assembly is scaffolded into 13 chromosomal pseudomolecules, including the X sex chromosome. The mitochondrial genome has also been assembled and is 17.6 kilobases in length

Pantheon: a new resource for invertebrate survey standards and analysis

The Pantheon database seeks to set a new standard in the analysis and reporting of invertebrates to achieve an approach comparable to that in use for other elements of biodiversity. This will facilitate simple analyses of invertebrate site survey data thereby helping ecology practitioners to produce site reports more quickly, with greater ecological breadth and deeper insight. The database is a free resource, which readers are invited to explore and use. Observations on functionality and design are welcome with a view to improving the first full version, scheduled for release in Spring 2018