Inverse meta-modelling to estimate soil available water capacity at high spatial resolution across a farm

Geo-referenced information on crop production that is both spatially- and temporally-dense would be useful for management in precision agriculture (PA). Crop yield monitors provide spatially but not temporally dense information. Crop growth simulation modelling can provide temporal density, but traditionally fail on the spatial issue. The research described was motivated by the challenge of satisfying both the spatial and temporal data needs of PA. The methods presented depart from current crop modelling within PA by introducing meta-modelling in combination with inverse modelling to estimate site-specific soil properties. The soil properties are used to predict spatially- and temporally-dense crop yields. An inverse meta-model was derived from the agricultural production simulator (APSIM) using neural networks to estimate soil available water capacity (AWC) from available yield data. Maps of AWC with a resolution of 10 m were produced across a dryland grain farm in Australia. For certain years and fields, the estimates were useful for yield prediction with APSIM and multiple regression, whereas for others the results were disappointing. The estimates contain ‘implicit information’ about climate interactions with soil, crop and landscape that needs to be identified. Improvement of the meta-model with more AWC scenarios, more years of yield data, inclusion of additional variables and accounting for uncertainty are discussed. We concluded that it is worthwhile to pursue this approach as an efficient way of extracting soil physical information that exists within crop yield maps to create spatially- and temporally-dense dataset

Saturation Physics of Threshold Heat-Flux Reduction

The saturation physics of ion-temperature-gradient-driven turbulence is examined in relation to the temperature-gradient variation of the heat flux, which can exhibit an upshift of the critical gradient for significant flux relative to the linear instability threshold. Gyrokinetic measurements of saturation properties and spectral energy transfer, which will be defined in Sec. II, are presented, indicating that the physics of saturation is fundamentally unchanged on either side of the upshifted gradient. To analyze heat transport below and above the upshifted critical gradient, a fluid model for toroidal ion-temperature-gradient turbulence is modified to include the kinetic instability threshold. The model and the heat flux are rendered in the eigenmode decomposition to track the dominant mode-coupling channel of zonal-flow-catalyzed transfer to a conjugate stable mode. Given linear and nonlinear symmetries, the stable mode level and the cross-correlation of the unstable and stable mode amplitudes are related to the unstable mode level via linear physics. The heat flux can then be written in terms of the unstable-mode level, which through a nonlinear balance depends on the eigenmode-dependent coupling coefficients and the triplet correlation time of the dominant coupled modes. Resonance in these quantities leads to suppressed heat flux above the linear threshold, with a nonlinear upshift of the critical gradient set by the resonance broadening of a finite perpendicular wavenumber and collisionality.</p

The UK’s total nitrogen budget from 1990 to 2020: a transition from source to sink?

This study estimates the annual total nitrogen balance of the UK from 1990 to 2020. The following inputs of nitrogen are considered: inorganic fertilizer, atmospheric deposition; food and feed imports; and biological nitrogen fixation. The outputs considered compose: atmospheric emissions; direct losses of sewage and industrial effluent to the sea; fluvial losses at source; food and feed exports; and terrestrial denitrification. It is shown that: (1) Inputs of inorganic fertilizer declined significantly over the study period with both atmospheric deposition and food and feed imports significantly increasing. (2) Outputs of total N also significantly declined with all output pathways decreasing except for atmospheric emissions and terrestrial denitrification to N2. (3) The UK was a net source of total nitrogen in 1990 of approximately −1941 ± 224 kilotonnes N/year (−8 tonnes N/km2/year; inter-quartile range of ±0.9 tonnes/km2/year). However, by 2012, this net nitrogen source had decreased to about −1446 ± 195 kilotonnes N/year (−5.9 tonnes N/km2/year). The future total N balance of the UK is being driven by declines in outputs rather than changes in inputs. The largest declines are in the atmospheric emissions of reactive nitrogen (Nr) and the fluvial flux of N such that by 2020 to the total N budget is predicted to be −1042 (±246) kilotonnes N/year (−4.2 tonnes N/km2/year) and by 2031 the UK would be a net sink of total N

Quantifying the frequency and volume of urine deposition by grazing sheep using tri-axial accelerometers

Urine patches deposited in pasture by grazing animals are sites of reactive nitrogen (N) loss to the environment due to high concentrations of N exceeding pasture uptake requirements. In order to upscale N losses from the urine patch, several urination parameters are required, including where, when and how often urination events occur as well as the volume and chemical composition. There are limited data available in this respect, especially for sheep. Here, we seek to address this knowledge gap by using non-invasive sensor-based technology (accelerometers) on ewes grazing in situ, using a Boolean algorithm to detect urination events in the accelerometer signal. We conducted an initial study with penned Welsh Mountain ewes (n = 5), with accelerometers attached to the hind, to derive urine flow rate and to determine whether urine volume could be estimated from ewe squat time. Then accelerometers attached to the hind of Welsh Mountain ewes (n = 30 at each site) were used to investigate the frequency of sheep urination events (n = 35 946) whilst grazing two extensively managed upland pastures (semi-improved and unimproved) across two seasons (spring and autumn) at each site (35–40 days each). Sheep urinated at a frequency of 10.2 ± 0.2 and 8.1 ± 0.3 times per day in the spring and autumn, respectively, while grazing the semi-improved pasture. Urination frequency was greater (19.0 ± 0.4 and 15.3 ± 0.3 times per day in the spring and autumn, respectively) in the unimproved pasture. Ewe squat duration could be reliably used to predict the volume of urine deposited per event and was thus used to estimate mean daily urine production volumes. Sheep urinated at a rate of 16.6 mL/s and, across the entire dataset, sheep squatted for an average of 9.62 ± 0.03 s per squatting event, producing an estimated average individual urine event volume of 159 ± 1 mL (n = 35 946 events), ranging between 17 and 745 mL (for squat durations of 1 to 45 s). The estimated mean daily urine volume was 2.15 ± 0.04 L (n = 2 669 days) across the entire dataset. The data will be useful for modelling studies estimating N losses (e.g. ammonia (NH3) volatilisation, nitrous oxide (N2O) emission via nitrification and denitrification and nitrate (NO3−) leaching) from urine patches

The oceanography of southwest Ireland: current research activities

The coastal waters of Ireland are rich in physical features affecting both chemistry and biology. Amongst these are the tidal fronts of the Irish Sea (Le Fevre, 1986) and the Irish Shelf Front on the Atlantic coast lying along the 200m iso bath (Huang et al., 1991). Recently, an upwelling system has been described in the vicinity of the Fastnet Rock (Roden, 1986; Raine et al., 1990). Coastal upwelling systems are ecologically very important and are generally extremely productive, as nutrients brought up to the sea surface can stimulate extensive phytoplankton growth. This paper describes further satellite and ship-based investigations which are currently being carried out to examine the mechanisms driving the upwelling system and its effect on local ecology

The exposure of the hybrid detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Pierre Auger Observatory is a detector for ultra-high energy cosmic rays. It consists of a surface array to measure secondary particles at ground level and a fluorescence detector to measure the development of air showers in the atmosphere above the array. The "hybrid" detection mode combines the information from the two subsystems. We describe the determination of the hybrid exposure for events observed by the fluorescence telescopes in coincidence with at least one water-Cherenkov detector of the surface array. A detailed knowledge of the time dependence of the detection operations is crucial for an accurate evaluation of the exposure. We discuss the relevance of monitoring data collected during operations, such as the status of the fluorescence detector, background light and atmospheric conditions, that are used in both simulation and reconstruction.Comment: Paper accepted by Astroparticle Physic

Influence of Dietary Oil Content and Conjugated Linoleic Acid (CLA) on Lipid Metabolism Enzyme Activities and Gene Expression in Tissues of Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar L.)

The overall objective is to test the hypothesis that conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) has beneficial effects in Atlantic salmon through affecting lipid and fatty acid metabolism. The specific aims of the present study were to determine the effects of CLA on some key pathways of fatty acid metabolism including fatty acid oxidation and highly unsaturated fatty acid (HUFA) synthesis. Salmon smolts were fed diets containing two levels of fish oil (low, ~18% and high, ~34%) containing three levels of CLA (a 1:1 mixture of 9-cis,trans-11 and trans-10,cis-12 at 0, 1 and 2% of diet) for 3 months. The effects of dietary CLA on HUFA synthesis and β-oxidation were measured and the expression of key genes in the fatty acid oxidation and HUFA synthesis pathways, and potentially important transcription factors, peroxisome proliferators activated receptors (PPARs), determined in selected tissues. Liver HUFA synthesis and desaturase gene expression was increased by dietary CLA and decreased by high dietary oil content. Carnitine palmitoyltransferase-I (CPT-I) activity and gene expression were generally increased by CLA in muscle tissues although dietary oil content had relatively little effect. In general CPT-I activity or gene expression was not correlated with β-oxidation. Dietary CLA tended to increase PPARα and β gene expression in both liver and muscle tissues, and PPARγ in liver. In summary, gene expression and activity of the fatty acid pathways were altered in response to dietary CLA and/or oil content, with data suggesting that PPARs are also regulated in response to CLA. Correlations were observed between dietary CLA, liver HUFA synthesis and desaturase gene expression, and liver PPARα expression, and also between dietary CLA, CPT-I expression and activity, and PPARα expression in muscle tissues. In conclusion, this study suggests that dietary CLA has effects on fatty acid metabolism in Atlantic salmon and on PPAR transcription factors. However, further work is required to assess the potential of CLA as a dietary supplement, and the role of PPARs in the regulation of lipid metabolism in fish

An intervention to support adherence to inhaled medication in adults with cystic fibrosis : the ACtiF research programme including RCT

Background People with cystic fibrosis frequently have low levels of adherence to inhaled medications. Objectives The objectives were to develop and evaluate an intervention for adults with cystic fibrosis to improve adherence to their inhaled medication. Design We used agile software methods to develop an online platform. We used mixed methods to develop a behaviour change intervention for delivery by an interventionist. These were integrated to become the CFHealthHub intervention. We undertook a feasibility study consisting of a pilot randomised controlled trial and process evaluation in two cystic fibrosis centres. We evaluated the intervention using an open-label, parallel-group randomised controlled trial with usual care as the control. Participants were randomised in a 1 : 1 ratio to intervention or usual care. Usual care consisted of clinic visits every 3 months. We undertook a process evaluation alongside the randomised controlled trial, including a fidelity study, a qualitative interview study and a mediation analysis. We undertook a health economic analysis using both a within-trial and model-based analysis. Setting The randomised controlled trial took place in 19 UK cystic fibrosis centres. Participants Participants were people aged ≥ 16 years with cystic fibrosis, on the cystic fibrosis registry, not post lung transplant or on the active transplant list, who were able to consent and not using dry-powder inhalers. Intervention People with cystic fibrosis used a nebuliser with electronic monitoring capabilities. This transferred data automatically to a digital platform. People with cystic fibrosis and clinicians could monitor adherence using these data, including through a mobile application (app). CFHealthHub displayed graphs of adherence data as well as educational and problem-solving information. A trained interventionist helped people with cystic fibrosis to address their adherence. Main outcome measures Randomised controlled trial – adjusted incidence rate ratio of pulmonary exacerbations meeting the modified Fuchs criteria over a 12-month follow-up period (primary outcome); change in percentage adherence; and per cent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second (key secondary outcomes). Process evaluation – percentage fidelity to intervention delivery, and participant and interventionist perceptions of the intervention. Economic modelling – incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Results Randomised controlled trial – 608 participants were randomised to the intervention (n = 305) or usual care (n = 303). To our knowledge, this was the largest randomised controlled trial in cystic fibrosis undertaken in the UK. The adjusted rate of exacerbations per year (primary outcome) was 1.63 in the intervention and 1.77 in the usual-care arm (incidence rate ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.83 to 1.12; p = 0.638) after adjustment for covariates. The adjusted difference in mean weekly normative adherence was 9.5% (95% confidence interval 8.6% to 10.4%) across 1 year, favouring the intervention. Adjusted mean difference in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (per cent) predicted at 12 months was 1.4% (95% confidence interval –0.2% to 3.0%). No adverse events were related to the intervention. Process evaluation – fidelity of intervention delivery was high, the intervention was acceptable to people with cystic fibrosis, participants engaged with the intervention [287/305 (94%) attended the first intervention visit], expected mechanisms of action were identified and contextual factors varied between randomised controlled trial sites. Qualitative interviews with 22 people with cystic fibrosis and 26 interventionists identified that people with cystic fibrosis welcomed the objective adherence data as proof of actions to self and others, and valued the relationship that they built with the interventionists. Economic modelling – the within-trial analysis suggests that the intervention generated 0.01 additional quality-adjusted life-years at an additional cost of £865.91 per patient, leading to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £71,136 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. This should be interpreted with caution owing to the short time horizon. The health economic model suggests that the intervention is expected to generate 0.17 additional quality-adjusted life-years and cost savings of £1790 over a lifetime (70-year) horizon; hence, the intervention is expected to dominate usual care. Assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, the probability that the intervention generates more net benefit than usual care is 0.89. The model results are dependent on assumptions regarding the duration over which costs and effects of the intervention apply, the impact of the intervention on forced expiratory volume in 1 second (per cent) predicted and the relationship between increased adherence and drug-prescribing levels. Limitations Number of exacerbations is a sensitive and valid measure of clinical change used in many trials. However, data collection of this outcome in this context was challenging and could have been subject to bias. It was not possible to measure baseline adherence accurately. It was not possible to quantify the impact of the intervention on the number of packs of medicines prescribed. Conclusions We developed a feasible and acceptable intervention that was delivered to fidelity in the randomised controlled trial. We observed no statistically significant difference in the primary outcome of exacerbation rates over 12 months. We observed an increase in normative adherence levels in a disease where adherence levels are low. The magnitude of the increase in adherence may not have been large enough to affect exacerbations. Future work Given the non-significant difference in the primary outcome, further research is required to explore why an increase in objective normative adherence did not reduce exacerbations and to develop interventions that reduce exacerbations. Trial registration Work package 3.1: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN13076797. Work packages 3.2 and 3.3: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN55504164