Data Driven Regional Weather Forecasting: Example using the Shallow Water Equations

Using data alone, without knowledge of underlying physical models, nonlinear discrete time regional forecasting dynamical rules are constructed employing well tested methods from applied mathematics and nonlinear dynamics. Observations of environmental variables such as wind velocity, temperature, pressure, etc allow the development of forecasting rules that predict the future of these variables only. A regional set of observations with appropriate sensors allows one to forgo standard considerations of spatial resolution and uncertainties in the properties of detailed physical models. Present global or regional models require specification of details of physical processes globally or regionally, and the ensuing, often heavy, computational requirements provide information of the time variation of many quantities not of interest locally. In this paper we formulate the construction of data driven forecasting (DDF) models of geophysical processes and demonstrate how this works within the familiar example of a 'global' model of shallow water flow on a mid-latitude beta plane. A sub-region, where observations are made, of the global flow is selected. A discrete time dynamical forecasting system is constructed from these observations. DDF forecasting accurately predicts the future of observed variables.Comment: 46 pages, 10 figure

Linking in situ Crystallisation and Magma Replenishment via Sill Intrusion in the Rum Western Layered Intrusion, NW Scotland

The construction of layered mafic-ultramafic intrusions has traditionally been attributed to gravity driven accumulation, involving the mechanical settling of crystals onto the magma chamber floor, at the interface between the crystal mush at the base and overlying replenishing magma, such that the layered sequence of cumulates (i.e., the crystal mush) at the floor aggrades upwards. The Rum Western Layered Intrusion (WLI) is a ~250 m sequence of layered peridotite cumulates comprising the structurally lowest portion of the Rum Layered Suite (RLS). As such, it is taken to represent the oldest sequence in the RLS and has been assumed to young upwards. The WLI hosts the largest proportion of harrisite, a cumulate composed of skeletal olivine that formed by in situ crystallisation, in the Rum layered intrusion. Harrisite layers in the WLI ubiquitously exhibit extremely irregular upward-oriented apophyses, up to several metres high and metres across, alongside laterally extensive dome-like structures; features consistent with intrusive, sill-like emplacement of harrisite. The distribution and abundance of harrisite therefore points to chaotic sill-like emplacement of the magmas that produced at least half of the WLI cumulate. This probably occurred various ambient crystal mush temperatures and punctuated intervals during cumulate formation. The harrisite layers are associated with numerous Cr-spinel seams occurring along the tops, bases, and interiors of these layers, suggesting they formed in situ alongside harrisite sills within the crystal mush. Detailed quantitative textural and mineral chemical analysis of Cr-spinel seams support a simple in situ crystallisation process for their formation. It is suggested the Cr-spinel seams form within melt channels that develop along the same hot tears that allowed the harrisite parental melts to enter the crystal mush. The chemistry and texture of Cr-spinel is controlled by the volume of through-flow of melt through the melt channel. Where melt flux through channels was high, sulphide and platinumgroup minerals are more abundant, highlighting the key economic implications of this model for the platinum-group element enrichment of chromitite horizons in layered intrusions. We also highlight the role of infiltration metasomatism at multiple levels of the WLI, where porous percolation of interstitial melt and reactive liquid flow played a key role in cumulate formation, supporting the notion of layered intrusion growth by incremental sill emplacement

Phase light curves for extrasolar Jupiters and Saturns

We predict how a remote observer would see the brightness variations of giant planets similar to Jupiter and Saturn as they orbit their central stars. We model the geometry of Jupiter, Saturn and Saturn's rings for varying orbital and viewing parameters. Scattering properties for the planets and rings at wavelenghts 0.6-0.7 microns follow Pioneer and Voyager observations, namely, planets are forward scattering and rings are backward scattering. Images of the planet with or without rings are simulated and used to calculate the disk-averaged luminosity varying along the orbit, that is, a light curve is generated. We find that the different scattering properties of Jupiter and Saturn (without rings) make a substantial difference in the shape of their light curves. Saturn-size rings increase the apparent luminosity of the planet by a factor of 2-3 for a wide range of geometries. Rings produce asymmetric light curves that are distinct from the light curve of the planet without rings. If radial velocity data are available for the planet, the effect of the ring on the light curve can be distinguished from effects due to orbital eccentricity. Non-ringed planets on eccentric orbits produce light curves with maxima shifted relative to the position of the maximum planet's phase. Given radial velocity data, the amount of the shift restricts the planet's unknown orbital inclination and therefore its mass. Combination of radial velocity data and a light curve for a non-ringed planet on an eccentric orbit can also be used to constrain the surface scattering properties of the planet. To summarize our results for the detectability of exoplanets in reflected light, we present a chart of light curve amplitudes of non-ringed planets for different eccentricities, inclinations, and the viewing azimuthal angles of the observer.Comment: 40 pages, 13 figures, submitted to Ap.

Muted change in Atlantic overturning circulation over some glacial-aged Heinrich events

Heinrich events—surges of icebergs into the North Atlantic Ocean—punctuated the last glacial period. The events are associated with millennial-scale cooling in the Northern Hemisphere. Fresh water from the melting icebergs is thought to have interrupted the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, thus minimizing heat transport into the northern North Atlantic. The northward flow of warm water passes through the Florida Straits and is reflected in the distribution of seawater properties in this region. Here we investigate the northward flow through this region over the past 40,000 years using oxygen isotope measurements of benthic foraminifera from two cores on either side of the Florida Straits. These measurements allow us to estimate water density, which is related to flow through the thermal wind balance. We infer a substantial reduction of flow during Heinrich Event 1 and the Younger Dryas cooling, but little change during Heinrich Events 2 and 3, which occurred during an especially cold phase of the last glacial period. We speculate that because glacial circulation was already weakened before the onset of Heinrich Events 2 and 3, freshwater forcing had little additional effect. However, low-latitude climate perturbations were observed during all events. We therefore suggest that these perturbations may not have been directly caused by changes in heat transport associated with Atlantic overturning circulation as commonly assumed

Evolution of South Atlantic density and chemical stratification across the last deglaciation.

Explanations of the glacial-interglacial variations in atmospheric pCO2 invoke a significant role for the deep ocean in the storage of CO2. Deep-ocean density stratification has been proposed as a mechanism to promote the storage of CO2 in the deep ocean during glacial times. A wealth of proxy data supports the presence of a "chemical divide" between intermediate and deep water in the glacial Atlantic Ocean, which indirectly points to an increase in deep-ocean density stratification. However, direct observational evidence of changes in the primary controls of ocean density stratification, i.e., temperature and salinity, remain scarce. Here, we use Mg/Ca-derived seawater temperature and salinity estimates determined from temperature-corrected δ(18)O measurements on the benthic foraminifer Uvigerina spp. from deep and intermediate water-depth marine sediment cores to reconstruct the changes in density of sub-Antarctic South Atlantic water masses over the last deglaciation (i.e., 22-2 ka before present). We find that a major breakdown in the physical density stratification significantly lags the breakdown of the deep-intermediate chemical divide, as indicated by the chemical tracers of benthic foraminifer δ(13)C and foraminifer/coral (14)C. Our results indicate that chemical destratification likely resulted in the first rise in atmospheric pCO2, whereas the density destratification of the deep South Atlantic lags the second rise in atmospheric pCO2 during the late deglacial period. Our findings emphasize that the physical and chemical destratification of the ocean are not as tightly coupled as generally assumed.We are grateful to I. Mather, J. Rolfe, F. Dewilde and G. Isguder for preparing and performing isotopic analyses, as well as C. Daunt, S. Souanef-Ureta and M. Greaves for technical assistance in performing trace element analysis. J.R. was funded jointly by the British Geological Survey/British Antarctic Survey (Natural Environment Research Council) and the University of Cambridge. J.G. was funded by the Gates Cambridge Trust. L.C.S. acknowledges support from the Royal Society and NERC grant NE/J010545/1. C.W. acknowledges support from the European Research Council grant ACCLIMATE/no 339108. This is LSCE contribution 5514. This work was funded (in part) by the European Research Council (ERC grant 2010-NEWLOG ADG-267931 HE). N.V.R. acknowledges support from EU RTN NICE (no. 36127). We thank the captain and crew of the RRS James Clark Ross for facilitating the collection of the marine sediment core GC528.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from PNAS via http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.151125211

High-resolution ab initio three-dimensional X-ray diffraction microscopy

Coherent X-ray diffraction microscopy is a method of imaging non-periodic isolated objects at resolutions only limited, in principle, by the largest scattering angles recorded. We demonstrate X-ray diffraction imaging with high resolution in all three dimensions, as determined by a quantitative analysis of the reconstructed volume images. These images are retrieved from the 3D diffraction data using no a priori knowledge about the shape or composition of the object, which has never before been demonstrated on a non-periodic object. We also construct 2D images of thick objects with infinite depth of focus (without loss of transverse spatial resolution). These methods can be used to image biological and materials science samples at high resolution using X-ray undulator radiation, and establishes the techniques to be used in atomic-resolution ultrafast imaging at X-ray free-electron laser sources.Comment: 22 pages, 11 figures, submitte

Annual cycles are the most common reproductive strategy in African tropical tree communities

Abstract We present the first cross‐continental comparison of the flowering and fruiting phenology of tropical forests across Africa. Flowering events of 5446 trees from 196 species across 12 sites and fruiting events of 4595 trees from 191 species across 11 sites were monitored over periods of 6 to 29 years and analyzed to describe phenology at the continental level. To study phenology, we used Fourier analysis to identify the dominant cycles of flowering and fruiting for each individual tree and we identified the time of year African trees bloom and bear fruit and their relationship to local seasonality. Reproductive strategies were diverse, and no single regular cycle was found in >50% of individuals across all 12 sites. Additionally, we found annual flowering and fruiting cycles to be the most common. Sub‐annual cycles were the next most common for flowering, whereas supra‐annual patterns were the next most common for fruiting. We also identify variation in different subsets of species, with species exhibiting mainly annual cycles most common in West and West Central African tropical forests, while more species at sites in East Central and East African forests showed cycles ranging from sub‐annual to supra‐annual. Despite many trees showing strong seasonality, at most sites some flowering and fruiting occurred all year round. Environmental factors with annual cycles are likely to be important drivers of seasonal periodicity in trees across Africa, but proximate triggers are unlikely to be constant across the continent.Additional co-authors: Roman M. Wittig, Thomas Breuer, Mireille Breuer‐Ndoundou Hockemba, Crickette M. Sanz, David B. Morgan, Anne E. Pusey, Badru Mugerwa, Baraka Gilagiza, Caroline Tutin, Corneille E. N. Ewango, Douglas Sheil, Edmond Dimoto, Fidèle Baya, Flort Bujo, Fredrick Ssali, Jean‐Thoussaint Dikangadissi, Kim Valenta, Michel Masozera, Michael L. Wilson, Robert Bitariho, Sydney T. Ndolo Ebika, Sylvie Gourlet‐Fleury, Felix Mulindahabi, Colin M. Beal

Succinate Dehydrogenase Supports Metabolic Repurposing of Mitochondria to Drive Inflammatory Macrophages.

Activated macrophages undergo metabolic reprogramming, which drives their pro-inflammatory phenotype, but the mechanistic basis for this remains obscure. Here, we demonstrate that upon lipopolysaccharide (LPS) stimulation, macrophages shift from producing ATP by oxidative phosphorylation to glycolysis while also increasing succinate levels. We show that increased mitochondrial oxidation of succinate via succinate dehydrogenase (SDH) and an elevation of mitochondrial membrane potential combine to drive mitochondrial reactive oxygen species (ROS) production. RNA sequencing reveals that this combination induces a pro-inflammatory gene expression profile, while an inhibitor of succinate oxidation, dimethyl malonate (DMM), promotes an anti-inflammatory outcome. Blocking ROS production with rotenone by uncoupling mitochondria or by expressing the alternative oxidase (AOX) inhibits this inflammatory phenotype, with AOX protecting mice from LPS lethality. The metabolic alterations that occur upon activation of macrophages therefore repurpose mitochondria from ATP synthesis to ROS production in order to promote a pro-inflammatory state