International Trade in Brown Shares and Economic Development

Using global share ownership data from 2002 to 2021, we find that investors’ aggregate carbon sensitivity, i.e., their tendency to divest from more polluting firms, increases with per capita GDP, especially after the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015. As an implication, investors in higher-income countries are predicted to hold greener portfolios, which is borne out by the data. Especially investment managers, who invest on behalf of their clients, and investors with longer investment horizons contribute to the portfolio greening effect of economic development. We find that this effect is weaker for smaller firms and for firms that are included in the MSCI World index

Post-mortem feasibility of dual-energy computed tomography in the detection of bone edema-like lesions in the equine foot: a proof of concept

IntroductionIn this proof-of-concept study, the post-mortem feasibility of dual-energy computed tomography (DECT) in the detection of bone edema-like lesions in the equine foot is described in agreement with the gold standard imaging technique, which is magnetic resonance imaging (MRI).MethodsA total of five equine cadaver feet were studied, of which two were pathological and three were within normal limits and served as references. A low-field MRI of each foot was performed, followed by a DECT acquisition. Multiplanar reformations of DECT virtual non-calcium images were compared with MRI for the detection of bone edema-like lesions. A gross post-mortem was performed, and histopathologic samples were obtained of the navicular and/or distal phalanx of the two feet selected based on pathology and one reference foot.ResultsOn DECT virtual non-calcium imaging, the two pathological feet showed diffuse increased attenuation corresponding with bone edema-like lesions, whereas the three reference feet were considered normal. These findings were in agreement with the findings on the MRI. Histopathology of the two pathologic feet showed abnormalities in line with bone edema-like lesions. Histopathology of the reference foot was normal.ConclusionDECT virtual non-calcium imaging can be a valuable diagnostic tool in the diagnosis of bone edema-like lesions in the equine foot. Further examination of DECT in equine diagnostic imaging is warranted in a larger cohort, different locations, and alive animals

The absence of MyD88 has no effect on the induction of alternatively activated macrophage during Fasciola hepatica infection

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Alternatively activated macrophages (AAMϕ) play important roles in allergies and responses to parasitic infections. However, whether signaling through toll-like receptors (TLRs) plays any role in AAMϕ induction when young <it>Fasciola hepatica </it>penetrates the liver capsule and migrates through the liver tissue is still unclear.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The data show that the lack of myeloid differentiation factor 88 (MyD88) has no effect on the AAMϕ derived from the bone marrow (BMMϕ) <it>in vitro </it>and does not impair the mRNA expression of arginase-1, resistin-like molecule (RELMα), and Ym1 in BMMϕs. The Th2 cytokine production bias in splenocytes was not significantly altered in <it>F. hepatica</it>-infected mice in the absence of MyD88 <it>in vitro </it>and in the pleural cavity lavage <it>in vivo</it>. In addition, MyD88-deficiency has no effect on the arginase production of the <it>F. hepatica </it>elicited macrophages (Fe Mϕs), production of RELMα and Ym1 proteins and mRNA expression of Ym1 and RELMα of macrophages in the peritoneal cavity 6 weeks post <it>F. hepatica </it>infection.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The absence of MyD88 has no effect on presence of AAMϕ 6 weeks post <it>F. hepatica </it>infection.</p

Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration.

How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model. Within each outcome, prediction error was strongly associated with the family being predicted and weakly associated with the technique used to generate the prediction. Overall, these results suggest practical limits to the predictability of life outcomes in some settings and illustrate the value of mass collaborations in the social sciences

Community-Level Responses to Iron Availability in Open Ocean Plankton Ecosystems

Predicting responses of plankton to variations in essential nutrients is hampered by limited in situ measurements, a poor understanding of community composition, and the lack of reference gene catalogs for key taxa. Iron is a key driver of plankton dynamics and, therefore, of global biogeochemical cycles and climate. To assess the impact of iron availability on plankton communities, we explored the comprehensive bio-oceanographic and bio-omics data sets from Tara Oceans in the context of the iron products from two state-of-the-art global scale biogeochemical models. We obtained novel information about adaptation and acclimation toward iron in a range of phytoplankton, including picocyanobacteria and diatoms, and identified whole subcommunities covarying with iron. Many of the observed global patterns were recapitulated in the Marquesas archipelago, where frequent plankton blooms are believed to be caused by natural iron fertilization, although they are not captured in large-scale biogeochemical models. This work provides a proof of concept that integrative analyses, spanning from genes to ecosystems and viruses to zooplankton, can disentangle the complexity of plankton communities and can lead to more accurate formulations of resource bioavailability in biogeochemical models, thus improving our understanding of plankton resilience in a changing environment

Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change

How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender–career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists’ forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data

The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative: Investigating Immigration and Social Policy Preferences. Executive Report.

In an era of mass migration, social scientists, populist parties and social movements raise concerns over the future of immigration-destination societies. What impacts does this have on policy and social solidarity? Comparative cross-national research, relying mostly on secondary data, has findings in different directions. There is a threat of selective model reporting and lack of replicability. The heterogeneity of countries obscures attempts to clearly define data-generating models. P-hacking and HARKing lurk among standard research practices in this area.This project employs crowdsourcing to address these issues. It draws on replication, deliberation, meta-analysis and harnessing the power of many minds at once. The Crowdsourced Replication Initiative carries two main goals, (a) to better investigate the linkage between immigration and social policy preferences across countries, and (b) to develop crowdsourcing as a social science method. The Executive Report provides short reviews of the area of social policy preferences and immigration, and the methods and impetus behind crowdsourcing plus a description of the entire project. Three main areas of findings will appear in three papers, that are registered as PAPs or in process

Predicting GPA at age 15 in the fragile families and child wellbeing study

In this paper, we describe in detail the different approaches we used to predict the GPA of children at the age of 15 in the context of the Fragile Families Challenge. Our best prediction improved about 18 percent in terms of mean squared error over a naive baseline prediction and performed less than 5 percent worse than the best prediction in the Fragile Families Challenge. After discussing the different predictions we made, we also discuss the predictors that tend to be robustly associated with GPA. One remarkable predictor is related to teacher observations at the age of nine. We end with a reflection on our participation in the Fragile Families Challenge and provide some suggestions for follow-up work

Predicting GPA at age 15 in the fragile families and child wellbeing study

In this paper, we describe in detail the different approaches we used to predict the GPA of children at the age of 15 in the context of the Fragile Families Challenge. Our best prediction improved about 18 percent in terms of mean squared error over a naive baseline prediction and performed less than 5 percent worse than the best prediction in the Fragile Families Challenge. After discussing the different predictions we made, we also discuss the predictors that tend to be robustly associated with GPA. One remarkable predictor is related to teacher observations at the age of nine. We end with a reflection on our participation in the Fragile Families Challenge and provide some suggestions for follow-up work