ウィスコンシン ダイガク マディソンコウ ガ ジッシ シテイル ナンキョク ムジン キショウ カンソク (AWS) ケイカク ノ 2011-2012 ネン カキ ノ カツドウ

ウィスコンシン大学マディソン校で推進している南極無人気象観測計画(Antarctic Automatic Weather Station(AWS)program)の32 年目の観測が,2011/2012年の南半球夏期に完了した.無人気象観測網を利用して南極の気象と気候の研究が行われている.今シーズンはロス島周辺域,ロス棚氷,西南極,東南極にわたる領域で活動した.基本的に観測点のデータはアルゴス衛星を中継して配信されるが,今年はロス島周辺域の多くの観測点で,マクマード基地を中継して"Freewave modem"を通して配信された.各無人気象観測点報告には,現在設置されている測器と動作状況が含まれる.また,無人気象観測計画の全体像を,野外活動の実施状況に沿って示す.During the 2011-2012 austral summer, the Antarctic Automatic Weather Station (AWS) program at the University of Wisconsin?Madison completed its 32nd year of observations. Ongoing studies utilizing the network include topics in Antarctic meteorology and climate studies. This field season consisted of work throughout the Ross Island area, the Ross Ice Shelf, West Antarctica, and East Antarctica. Argos satellite transmissions are the primary method for relaying station data, but throughout this year, a number of stations in the Ross Island area have been converted to Freewave modems, with their data being relayed through McMurdo station. Each AWS station report contains information regarding the instrumentation currently installed and the work performed at each site. An overview of the AWS applications is included along with field work accomplished

Automatic Weather Station (AWS) Program operated by the University of Wisconsin-Madison during the 2012-2013 field season: Challenges and Successes

ウィスコンシン大学マディソン校で推進している南極無人気象観測計画（Antarctic Automatic Weather Station（AWS）program）の，2012-2013年のフィールド調査および結果の概要を報告する．今期はAWS 観測網の歴史上，特異なシーズンであった．ロス島地域が温暖であったことは氷上滑走路の利用に影響を及ぼし，いくつかの設営面での制約に直面した． 柔軟な計画により，限られた条件下でAWS サービルを最大化し，自動観測ネットワークへの要求に対応する最善の手段をとることができた．This report reviews 2012-2013 field season activities of the University of Wisconsin-Madison＇s Antarctic Automatic Weather Station (AWS) program, summarizes the science that these sites are supporting, and outlines the factors that impact the number of AWS sites serviced in any given field season. The 2012-2013 austral summer season was unusual in the AWS network history. Challenges encountered include, but are not limited to, warmer than normal conditions in the Ross Island area impacting airfield operations, changes to logistical procedures, and competition for shared resources. A flexible work plan provides the best means for taking on these challenges while maximizing AWS servicing efforts under restricted conditions and meeting the need for routine servicing that maintaining an autonomous observing network demands

Environmental Sensor Placement with Convolutional Gaussian Neural Processes

Environmental sensors are crucial for monitoring weather conditions and the impacts of climate change. However, it is challenging to maximise measurement informativeness and place sensors efficiently, particularly in remote regions like Antarctica. Probabilistic machine learning models can evaluate placement informativeness by predicting the uncertainty reduction provided by a new sensor. Gaussian process (GP) models are widely used for this purpose, but they struggle with capturing complex non-stationary behaviour and scaling to large datasets. This paper proposes using a convolutional Gaussian neural process (ConvGNP) to address these issues. A ConvGNP uses neural networks to parameterise a joint Gaussian distribution at arbitrary target locations, enabling flexibility and scalability. Using simulated surface air temperature anomaly over Antarctica as ground truth, the ConvGNP learns spatial and seasonal non-stationarities, outperforming a non-stationary GP baseline. In a simulated sensor placement experiment, the ConvGNP better predicts the performance boost obtained from new observations than GP baselines, leading to more informative sensor placements. We contrast our approach with physics-based sensor placement methods and propose future work towards an operational sensor placement recommendation system. This system could help to realise environmental digital twins that actively direct measurement sampling to improve the digital representation of reality.Comment: In review for the Climate Informatics 2023 special issue of Environmental Data Scienc

Southern Ocean mesocyclones and polar lows from manually tracked satellite mosaics

A new reference dataset of mesocyclone activity over the Southern Ocean has been developed from the manual analysis of high resolution infrared satellite mosaics for winter 2004. Of the total 1735 mesocyclones which were identified and analyzed about three quarters were classified as being ‘polar lows’ (i.e. intense systems; see Rasmussen and Turner 2003). The dataset includes mesocyclone track, size, associated cloud vortex type and background synoptic conditions. Maxima in track density were observed over the Bellingshausen Sea and around East Antarctica and are highly correlated with cyclogenesis regions. A comparison against QuikSCAT and reanalyses wind characteristics shows that the reanalyses, while capturing mesocyclone events, tend to considerably underestimate their wind speed (by up to 10 ms-1). This mesocyclone dataset is available as a reference for further analysis of mesocyclones and for the evaluation and development of cyclone-tracking algorithms

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

Evaluating the highest temperature extremes in the antarctic

The record high temperature for regions south of 60°S latitude is a balmy 19.8°C (67.6°F), recorded 30 January 1982 at a research station on Signy Island

Characteristics of surface “melt potential” over Antarctic ice shelves based on regional atmospheric model simulations of summer air temperature extremes from 1979/80 to 2018/19

We calculate a regional surface “melt potential” index (MPI) over Antarctic ice shelves that describes the frequency (MPI-freq, %) and intensity (MPI-int, K) of daily maximum summer temperatures exceeding a melt threshold of 273.15 K. This is used to determine which ice shelves are vulnerable to melt-induced hydrofracture and is calculated using near-surface temperature output for each summer from 1979/80 to 2018/19 from two high-resolution regional atmospheric model hindcasts (using the MetUM and HIRHAM5). MPI is highest for Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves (MPI-freq 23-35%, MPI-int 1.2-2.1 K), lowest (2-3%, < 0 K) for Ronne-Filchner and Ross ice shelves, and around 10-24% and 0.6-1.7 K for the other West and East Antarctic ice shelves. Hotspots of MPI are apparent over many ice shelves, and they also show a decreasing trend in MPI-freq. The regional circulation patterns associated with high MPI values over West and East Antarctic ice shelves are remarkably consistent for their respective region but tied to different large-scale climate forcings. The West Antarctic circulation resembles the central Pacific El Niño pattern with a stationary Rossby wave and a strong anticyclone over the high-latitude South Pacific. By contrast, the East Antarctic circulation comprises a zonally symmetric negative Southern Annular Mode pattern with a strong regional anticyclone on the plateau and enhanced coastal easterlies/weakened Southern Ocean westerlies. Values of MPI are 3-4 times larger for a lower temperature/melt threshold of 271.15 K used in a sensitivity test, as melting can occur at temperatures lower than 273.15 K depending on snowpack properties

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)

The Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH)

The Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH) had a Special Observing Period (SOP) that ran from November 16, 2018 to February 15, 2019, a period chosen to span the austral warm season months of greatest operational activity in the Antarctic. Some 2200 additional radiosondes were launched during the 3-month SOP, roughly doubling the routine program, and the network of drifting buoys in the Southern Ocean was enhanced. An evaluation of global model forecasts during the SOP and using its data has confirmed that extratropical Southern Hemisphere forecast skill lags behind that in the Northern Hemisphere with the contrast being greatest between the southern and northern polar regions. Reflecting the application of the SOP data, early results from observing system experiments show that the additional radiosondes

Quantitative modeling perspectives on the ErbB system of cell regulatory processes

The complexities of the processes involved in ErbB-mediated regulation of cellular phenotype are broadly appreciated, so much so that it might be reasonably argued that this highly studied system provided significant impetus for the systems perspective on cell signaling processes in general. Recent years have seen major advances in the level of characterization of the ErbB system as well as our ability to make measurements of the system. This new data provides significant new insight, while at the same time creating new challenges for making quantitative statements and predictions with certainty. Here, we discuss recent advances in each of these directions and the interplay between them, with a particular focus on quantitative modeling approaches to interpret data and provide predictive power. Our discussion follows the sequential order of ErbB pathway activation, beginning with considerations of receptor/ligand interactions and dynamics, proceeding to the generation of intracellular signals, and ending with determination of cellular phenotype. As discussed herein, these processes become increasingly difficult to describe or interpret in terms of traditional models, and we review emerging methodologies to address this complexity.National Cancer Institute (U.S.). Integrative Cancer Biology Program (U54-CA112967)National Cancer Institute (U.S.) (R01-CA096504