Modelling the progression of treatment scenarios in the HIV/AIDS epidemic

Advances in recent treatments for HIV/AIDS patients have shown dramatic outcomes in extending the incubation period and AIDS survival time, whilst also providing significant improvements in the quality of patients' lives. This thesis establishes a model of the HIV/AIDS epidemic that incorporates the effects of treatments, in particular, the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), which became widely available during 1996. The technique of compartmental modelling is employed in an attempt to reproduce observed AIDS incidence/prevalence, HIV incidence/prevalence, and deaths from AIDS data. There are movements between compartments (sub-populations affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic) each with an associated parameter. Each sub-population has a differential-difference equation associated with it. Once these equations have been solved numerically they give a set of steady-state solutions, from which it is possible to estimate HIV/AIDS incidence and prevalence. Some parameter values within the model are obtained from surveys, census results, etc., but others are derived using a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) procedure. The use of realistic values gives impressive results, creating a remarkable fit with routinely collected data relating to levels of HIV/AIDS incidence and prevalence in the UK homosexual population. Finally, the model is used to project levels of incidence and prevalence over the next few years, and to investigate several possible 'what-if' scenarios, with a brief investigation into the consequent cost implications.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Modelling the progression of treatment scenarios in the HIV/AIDS epidemic

Advances in recent treatments for HIV/AIDS patients have shown dramatic outcomes in extending the incubation period and AIDS survival time, whilst also providing significant improvements in the quality of patients' lives. This thesis establishes a model of the HIV/AIDS epidemic that incorporates the effects of treatments, in particular, the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), which became widely available during 1996. The technique of compartmental modelling is employed in an attempt to reproduce observed AIDS incidence/prevalence, HIV incidence/prevalence, and deaths from AIDS data. There are movements between compartments (sub-populations affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic) each with an associated parameter. Each sub-population has a differential-difference equation associated with it. Once these equations have been solved numerically they give a set of steady-state solutions, from which it is possible to estimate HIV/AIDS incidence and prevalence. Some parameter values within the model are obtained from surveys, census results, etc., but others are derived using a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) procedure. The use of realistic values gives impressive results, creating a remarkable fit with routinely collected data relating to levels of HIV/AIDS incidence and prevalence in the UK homosexual population. Finally, the model is used to project levels of incidence and prevalence over the next few years, and to investigate several possible 'what-if' scenarios, with a brief investigation into the consequent cost implications

Concerning the feasibility of example-driven modelling techniques

We report on a series of experiments concerning the feasibility of example driven modelling. The main aim was to establish experimentally within an academic environment; the relationship between error and task complexity using a) Traditional spreadsheet modelling, b) example driven techniques. We report on the experimental design, sampling, research methods and the tasks set for both control and treatment groups. Analysis of the completed tasks allows comparison of several different variables. The experimental results compare the performance indicators for the treatment and control groups by comparing accuracy, experience, training, confidence measures, perceived difficulty and perceived completeness. The various results are thoroughly tested for statistical significance using: the Chi squared test, Fisher’s exact test for significance, Cochran’s Q test and McNemar’s test on difficulty

A novel approach to formulae production and overconfidence measurement to reduce risk in spreadsheet modelling

Research on formulae production in spreadsheets has established the practice as high risk yet unrecognised as such by industry. There are numerous software applications that are designed to audit formulae and find errors. However these are all post creation, designed to catch errors before the spreadsheet is deployed. As a general conclusion from EuSpRIG 2003 conference it was decided that the time has come to attempt novel solutions based on an understanding of human factors. Hence in this paper we examine one such possibility namely a novel example driven modelling approach. We discuss a control experiment that compares example driven modelling against traditional approaches over several progressively more difficult tests. The results are very interesting and certainly point to the value of further investigation of the example driven potential. Lastly we propose a method for statistically analysing the problem of overconfidence in spreadsheet modellers

VEGFR2 promotes central endothelial activation and the spread of pain in inflammatory arthritis

Chronic pain can develop in response to conditions such as inflammatory arthritis. The central mechanisms underlying the development and maintenance of chronic pain in humans are not well elucidated although there is evidence for a role of microglia and astrocytes. However in pre-clinical models of pain, including models of inflammatory arthritis, there is a wealth of evidence indicating roles for pathological glial reactivity within the CNS. In the spinal dorsal horn of rats with painful inflammatory arthritis we found both a significant increase in CD11b+ microglia-like cells and GFAP+ astrocytes associated with blood vessels, and the number of activated blood vessels expressing the adhesion molecule ICAM-1, indicating potential glio-vascular activation. Using pharmacological interventions targeting VEGFR2 in arthritic rats, to inhibit endothelial cell activation, the number of dorsal horn ICAM-1+ blood vessels, CD11b+ microglia and the development of secondary mechanical allodynia, an indicator of central sensitization, were all prevented. Targeting endothelial VEGFR2 by inducible Tie2-specific VEGFR2 knock-out also prevented secondary allodynia in mice and glio-vascular activation in the dorsal horn in response to inflammatory arthritis. Inhibition of VEGFR2 in vitro significantly blocked ICAM-1-dependent monocyte adhesion to brain microvascular endothelial cells, when stimulated with inflammatory mediators TNFa and VEGF-A165a. Taken together our findings suggest that a novel VEGFR2-mediated spinal cord gliovascular mechanism may promote peripheral CD11b+ circulating cell transmigration into the CNS parenchyma and contribute to the development of chronic pain in inflammatory arthritis. We hypothesise that preventing this glio-vascular activation and circulating cell translocation into the spinal cord could be a new therapeutic strategy for pain caused by rheumatoid arthritis

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy

BHPR research: qualitative1. Complex reasoning determines patients' perception of outcome following foot surgery in rheumatoid arhtritis

Background: Foot surgery is common in patients with RA but research into surgical outcomes is limited and conceptually flawed as current outcome measures lack face validity: to date no one has asked patients what is important to them. This study aimed to determine which factors are important to patients when evaluating the success of foot surgery in RA Methods: Semi structured interviews of RA patients who had undergone foot surgery were conducted and transcribed verbatim. Thematic analysis of interviews was conducted to explore issues that were important to patients. Results: 11 RA patients (9 ♂, mean age 59, dis dur = 22yrs, mean of 3 yrs post op) with mixed experiences of foot surgery were interviewed. Patients interpreted outcome in respect to a multitude of factors, frequently positive change in one aspect contrasted with negative opinions about another. Overall, four major themes emerged. Function: Functional ability & participation in valued activities were very important to patients. Walking ability was a key concern but patients interpreted levels of activity in light of other aspects of their disease, reflecting on change in functional ability more than overall level. Positive feelings of improved mobility were often moderated by negative self perception ("I mean, I still walk like a waddling duck”). Appearance: Appearance was important to almost all patients but perhaps the most complex theme of all. Physical appearance, foot shape, and footwear were closely interlinked, yet patients saw these as distinct separate concepts. Patients need to legitimize these feelings was clear and they frequently entered into a defensive repertoire ("it's not cosmetic surgery; it's something that's more important than that, you know?”). Clinician opinion: Surgeons' post operative evaluation of the procedure was very influential. The impact of this appraisal continued to affect patients' lasting impression irrespective of how the outcome compared to their initial goals ("when he'd done it ... he said that hasn't worked as good as he'd wanted to ... but the pain has gone”). Pain: Whilst pain was important to almost all patients, it appeared to be less important than the other themes. Pain was predominately raised when it influenced other themes, such as function; many still felt the need to legitimize their foot pain in order for health professionals to take it seriously ("in the end I went to my GP because it had happened a few times and I went to an orthopaedic surgeon who was quite dismissive of it, it was like what are you complaining about”). Conclusions: Patients interpret the outcome of foot surgery using a multitude of interrelated factors, particularly functional ability, appearance and surgeons' appraisal of the procedure. While pain was often noted, this appeared less important than other factors in the overall outcome of the surgery. Future research into foot surgery should incorporate the complexity of how patients determine their outcome Disclosure statement: All authors have declared no conflicts of interes

Effects of antiplatelet therapy after stroke due to intracerebral haemorrhage (RESTART): a randomised, open-label trial

Background: Antiplatelet therapy reduces the risk of major vascular events for people with occlusive vascular disease, although it might increase the risk of intracranial haemorrhage. Patients surviving the commonest subtype of intracranial haemorrhage, intracerebral haemorrhage, are at risk of both haemorrhagic and occlusive vascular events, but whether antiplatelet therapy can be used safely is unclear. We aimed to estimate the relative and absolute effects of antiplatelet therapy on recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage and whether this risk might exceed any reduction of occlusive vascular events. Methods: The REstart or STop Antithrombotics Randomised Trial (RESTART) was a prospective, randomised, open-label, blinded endpoint, parallel-group trial at 122 hospitals in the UK. We recruited adults (≥18 years) who were taking antithrombotic (antiplatelet or anticoagulant) therapy for the prevention of occlusive vascular disease when they developed intracerebral haemorrhage, discontinued antithrombotic therapy, and survived for 24 h. Computerised randomisation incorporating minimisation allocated participants (1:1) to start or avoid antiplatelet therapy. We followed participants for the primary outcome (recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage) for up to 5 years. We analysed data from all randomised participants using Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusted for minimisation covariates. This trial is registered with ISRCTN (number ISRCTN71907627). Findings: Between May 22, 2013, and May 31, 2018, 537 participants were recruited a median of 76 days (IQR 29–146) after intracerebral haemorrhage onset: 268 were assigned to start and 269 (one withdrew) to avoid antiplatelet therapy. Participants were followed for a median of 2·0 years (IQR [1·0– 3·0]; completeness 99·3%). 12 (4%) of 268 participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy had recurrence of intracerebral haemorrhage compared with 23 (9%) of 268 participants allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (adjusted hazard ratio 0·51 [95% CI 0·25–1·03]; p=0·060). 18 (7%) participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy experienced major haemorrhagic events compared with 25 (9%) participants allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (0·71 [0·39–1·30]; p=0·27), and 39 [15%] participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy had major occlusive vascular events compared with 38 [14%] allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (1·02 [0·65–1·60]; p=0·92). Interpretation: These results exclude all but a very modest increase in the risk of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage with antiplatelet therapy for patients on antithrombotic therapy for the prevention of occlusive vascular disease when they developed intracerebral haemorrhage. The risk of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage is probably too small to exceed the established benefits of antiplatelet therapy for secondary prevention

Effects of antiplatelet therapy after stroke due to intracerebral haemorrhage (RESTART): a randomised, open-label trial

Background: Antiplatelet therapy reduces the risk of major vascular events for people with occlusive vascular disease, although it might increase the risk of intracranial haemorrhage. Patients surviving the commonest subtype of intracranial haemorrhage, intracerebral haemorrhage, are at risk of both haemorrhagic and occlusive vascular events, but whether antiplatelet therapy can be used safely is unclear. We aimed to estimate the relative and absolute effects of antiplatelet therapy on recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage and whether this risk might exceed any reduction of occlusive vascular events. Methods: The REstart or STop Antithrombotics Randomised Trial (RESTART) was a prospective, randomised, open-label, blinded endpoint, parallel-group trial at 122 hospitals in the UK. We recruited adults (≥18 years) who were taking antithrombotic (antiplatelet or anticoagulant) therapy for the prevention of occlusive vascular disease when they developed intracerebral haemorrhage, discontinued antithrombotic therapy, and survived for 24 h. Computerised randomisation incorporating minimisation allocated participants (1:1) to start or avoid antiplatelet therapy. We followed participants for the primary outcome (recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage) for up to 5 years. We analysed data from all randomised participants using Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusted for minimisation covariates. This trial is registered with ISRCTN (number ISRCTN71907627). Findings: Between May 22, 2013, and May 31, 2018, 537 participants were recruited a median of 76 days (IQR 29–146) after intracerebral haemorrhage onset: 268 were assigned to start and 269 (one withdrew) to avoid antiplatelet therapy. Participants were followed for a median of 2·0 years (IQR [1·0– 3·0]; completeness 99·3%). 12 (4%) of 268 participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy had recurrence of intracerebral haemorrhage compared with 23 (9%) of 268 participants allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (adjusted hazard ratio 0·51 [95% CI 0·25–1·03]; p=0·060). 18 (7%) participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy experienced major haemorrhagic events compared with 25 (9%) participants allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (0·71 [0·39–1·30]; p=0·27), and 39 [15%] participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy had major occlusive vascular events compared with 38 [14%] allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (1·02 [0·65–1·60]; p=0·92). Interpretation: These results exclude all but a very modest increase in the risk of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage with antiplatelet therapy for patients on antithrombotic therapy for the prevention of occlusive vascular disease when they developed intracerebral haemorrhage. The risk of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage is probably too small to exceed the established benefits of antiplatelet therapy for secondary prevention

Effects of antiplatelet therapy after stroke due to intracerebral haemorrhage (RESTART): a randomised, open-label trial

BACKGROUND: Antiplatelet therapy reduces the risk of major vascular events for people with occlusive vascular disease, although it might increase the risk of intracranial haemorrhage. Patients surviving the commonest subtype of intracranial haemorrhage, intracerebral haemorrhage, are at risk of both haemorrhagic and occlusive vascular events, but whether antiplatelet therapy can be used safely is unclear. We aimed to estimate the relative and absolute effects of antiplatelet therapy on recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage and whether this risk might exceed any reduction of occlusive vascular events. METHODS: The REstart or STop Antithrombotics Randomised Trial (RESTART) was a prospective, randomised, open-label, blinded endpoint, parallel-group trial at 122 hospitals in the UK. We recruited adults (≥18 years) who were taking antithrombotic (antiplatelet or anticoagulant) therapy for the prevention of occlusive vascular disease when they developed intracerebral haemorrhage, discontinued antithrombotic therapy, and survived for 24 h. Computerised randomisation incorporating minimisation allocated participants (1:1) to start or avoid antiplatelet therapy. We followed participants for the primary outcome (recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage) for up to 5 years. We analysed data from all randomised participants using Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusted for minimisation covariates. This trial is registered with ISRCTN (number ISRCTN71907627). FINDINGS: Between May 22, 2013, and May 31, 2018, 537 participants were recruited a median of 76 days (IQR 29-146) after intracerebral haemorrhage onset: 268 were assigned to start and 269 (one withdrew) to avoid antiplatelet therapy. Participants were followed for a median of 2·0 years (IQR [1·0- 3·0]; completeness 99·3%). 12 (4%) of 268 participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy had recurrence of intracerebral haemorrhage compared with 23 (9%) of 268 participants allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (adjusted hazard ratio 0·51 [95% CI 0·25-1·03]; p=0·060). 18 (7%) participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy experienced major haemorrhagic events compared with 25 (9%) participants allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (0·71 [0·39-1·30]; p=0·27), and 39 [15%] participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy had major occlusive vascular events compared with 38 [14%] allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (1·02 [0·65-1·60]; p=0·92). INTERPRETATION: These results exclude all but a very modest increase in the risk of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage with antiplatelet therapy for patients on antithrombotic therapy for the prevention of occlusive vascular disease when they developed intracerebral haemorrhage. The risk of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage is probably too small to exceed the established benefits of antiplatelet therapy for secondary prevention. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation