The effects of weather and climate change on dengue

There is much uncertainty about the future impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases. Such uncertainty reflects the difficulties in modelling the complex interactions between disease, climatic and socioeconomic determinants. We used a comprehensive panel dataset from Mexico covering 23 years of province-specific dengue reports across nine climatic regions to estimate the impact of weather on dengue, accounting for the effects of non-climatic factors

Similar dispersal patterns between two closely related birds with contrasting migration strategies

Studying dispersal is crucial to understand metapopulation and sink-source dynamics and invasion processes. The capability to disperse is especially important for species living in fragmented habitats like wetlands. We investigated the distribution of natal and breeding dispersal distances and philopatry in Spanish populations of two closely related reedbed-nesting birds, the Moustached Warbler Acrocephalus melanopogon and the Eurasian Reed Warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus. These warblers are morphologically very similar, but differ in migration strategy and, in our study area, in population size. Our aims were to find the best model for dispersal distances and to assess the occurrence of intra- or interspecific differences in dispersal patterns. We used ringing data from the Spanish marking scheme and selected recaptures to avoid including migrating individuals. In both species, most individuals were philopatric but dispersing birds were able to cross large distances (up to more than 100 km), suggesting the capability to compensate for habitat fragmentation. We found the heavy-tailed Cauchy distribution to be the best conceptual description for our data, in all cases but natal dispersal of Moustached Warblers. Among Eurasian Reed Warblers, natal philopatry was lower than breeding philopatry. We found no significant interspecific differences. This does not confirm the hypothesis of higher dispersal ability in long distance migrants (like Eurasian Reed Warblers) than in resident/short distance migrant bird species (like Moustached Warblers). The similarity in dispersal patterns among the two warblers may be explained by their close phylogenetic relatedness, similar constraints imposed on both species by a patchy habitat or similar evolutionary pressures.We are grateful to the many ringers who collected the data during years of fieldwork in Spain. Francesco Ceresa is supported by an "Atraent talent'' grant from the University of Valencia.Ceresa, F.; Belda, E.; Monrós González, JS. (2016). Similar dispersal patterns between two closely related birds with contrasting migration strategies. Population Ecology. 58(3):421-427. doi:10.1007/s10144-016-0547-0S421427583Banco de datos de anillamiento del remite ICONA – Ministerio de Medio Ambiente (2015) Datos de anillamiento y recuperaciones en España. Ministerio de Agricultura, Alimentación y Medio Ambiente, SEO/BirdLife, ICO, EBD-CSIC y GOB. Madrid (in Spanish)Begon M, Townsend CR, Harper JL (2006) Ecology: from individual to ecosystems, 4th edn. 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Climate change and the emergence of vector-borne diseases in Europe: Case study of dengue fever

Background: Dengue fever is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease worldwide. Dengue transmission is critically dependent on climatic factors and there is much concern as to whether climate change would spread the disease to areas currently unaffected. The occurrence of autochthonous infections in Croatia and France in 2010 has raised concerns about a potential re-emergence of dengue in Europe. The objective of this study is to estimate dengue risk in Europe under climate change scenarios. Methods. We used a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to estimate dengue fever risk as a function of climatic variables (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, humidity) and socioeconomic factors (population density, urbanisation, GDP per capita and population size), under contemporary conditions (1985-2007) in Mexico. We then used our model estimates to project dengue incidence under baseline conditions (1961-1990) and three climate change scenarios: short-term 2011-2040, medium-term 2041-2070 and long-term 2071-2100 across Europe. The model was used to calculate average number of yearly dengue cases at a spatial resolution of 10 × 10 km grid covering all land surface of the currently 27 EU member states. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to model dengue fever risk in Europe in terms of disease occurrence rather than mosquito presence. Results: The results were presented using Geographical Information System (GIS) and allowed identification of areas at high risk. Dengue fever hot spots were clustered around the coastal areas of the Mediterranean and Adriatic seas and the Po Valley in northern Italy. Conclusions: This risk assessment study is likely to be a valuable tool assisting effective and targeted adaptation responses to reduce the likely increased burden of dengue fever in a warmer world

Genetic overlap between endometriosis and endometrial cancer: evidence from cross-disease genetic correlation and GWAS meta-analyses.

Epidemiological, biological, and molecular data suggest links between endometriosis and endometrial cancer, with recent epidemiological studies providing evidence for an association between a previous diagnosis of endometriosis and risk of endometrial cancer. We used genetic data as an alternative approach to investigate shared biological etiology of these two diseases. Genetic correlation analysis of summary level statistics from genomewide association studies (GWAS) using LD Score regression revealed moderate but significant genetic correlation (rg  = 0.23, P = 9.3 × 10-3 ), and SNP effect concordance analysis provided evidence for significant SNP pleiotropy (P = 6.0 × 10-3 ) and concordance in effect direction (P = 2.0 × 10-3 ) between the two diseases. Cross-disease GWAS meta-analysis highlighted 13 distinct loci associated at P ≤ 10-5 with both endometriosis and endometrial cancer, with one locus (SNP rs2475335) located within PTPRD associated at a genomewide significant level (P = 4.9 × 10-8 , OR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.07-1.15). PTPRD acts in the STAT3 pathway, which has been implicated in both endometriosis and endometrial cancer. This study demonstrates the value of cross-disease genetic analysis to support epidemiological observations and to identify biological pathways of relevance to multiple diseases

A New Threat to Honey Bees, the Parasitic Phorid Fly Apocephalus borealis

Honey bee colonies are subject to numerous pathogens and parasites. Interaction among multiple pathogens and parasites is the proposed cause for Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD), a syndrome characterized by worker bees abandoning their hive. Here we provide the first documentation that the phorid fly Apocephalus borealis, previously known to parasitize bumble bees, also infects and eventually kills honey bees and may pose an emerging threat to North American apiculture. Parasitized honey bees show hive abandonment behavior, leaving their hives at night and dying shortly thereafter. On average, seven days later up to 13 phorid larvae emerge from each dead bee and pupate away from the bee. Using DNA barcoding, we confirmed that phorids that emerged from honey bees and bumble bees were the same species. Microarray analyses of honey bees from infected hives revealed that these bees are often infected with deformed wing virus and Nosema ceranae. Larvae and adult phorids also tested positive for these pathogens, implicating the fly as a potential vector or reservoir of these honey bee pathogens. Phorid parasitism may affect hive viability since 77% of sites sampled in the San Francisco Bay Area were infected by the fly and microarray analyses detected phorids in commercial hives in South Dakota and California's Central Valley. Understanding details of phorid infection may shed light on similar hive abandonment behaviors seen in CCD

Reproductive profiles and risk of breast cancer subtypes : a multi-center case-only study

Background: Previous studies have shown that reproductive factors are differentially associated with breast cancer (BC) risk by subtypes. The aim of this study was to investigate associations between reproductive factors and BC subtypes, and whether these vary by age at diagnosis. Methods: We used pooled data on tumor markers (estrogen and progesterone receptor, human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2)) and reproductive risk factors (parity, age at first full-time pregnancy (FFTP) and age at menarche) from 28,095 patients with invasive BC from 34 studies participating in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). In a case-only analysis, we used logistic regression to assess associations between reproductive factors and BC subtype compared to luminal A tumors as a reference. The interaction between age and parity in BC subtype risk was also tested, across all ages and, because age was modeled non-linearly, specifically at ages 35, 55 and 75 years. Results: Parous women were more likely to be diagnosed with triple negative BC (TNBC) than with luminal A BC, irrespective of age (OR for parity = 1.38, 95% CI 1.16-1.65, p = 0.0004; p for interaction with age = 0.076). Parous women were also more likely to be diagnosed with luminal and non-luminal HER2-like BCs and this effect was slightly more pronounced at an early age (p for interaction with age = 0.037 and 0. 030, respectively). For instance, women diagnosed at age 35 were 1.48 (CI 1.01-2.16) more likely to have luminal HER2-like BC than luminal A BC, while this association was not significant at age 75 (OR = 0.72, CI 0.45-1.14). While age at menarche was not significantly associated with BC subtype, increasing age at FFTP was non-linearly associated with TNBC relative to luminal A BC. An age at FFTP of 25 versus 20 years lowered the risk for TNBC (OR = 0.78, CI 0.70-0.88, p <0.0001), but this effect was not apparent at a later FFTP. Conclusions: Our main findings suggest that parity is associated with TNBC across all ages at BC diagnosis, whereas the association with luminal HER2-like BC was present only for early onset BC.Peer reviewe

Molecular and Behavioral Differentiation among Brazilian Populations of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae)

Lutzomyia longipalpis is the main vector of visceral leishmaniasis in the Americas. There is strong evidence that L. longipalpis is a species complex, but there is still no consensus regarding the number of species occurring in Brazil. We combined molecular and behavioral analyses of a number of L. longipalpis populations in order to help clarify this question. This approach has allowed us to identify two main groups of populations in Brazil. One group probably represents a single species distributed mainly throughout the coastal regions of North and Northeast Brazil and whose males produce the same type of copulation song and pheromone. The second group is more heterogeneous, probably represented by a number of incipient species with different levels of genetic divergence among the siblings that produce different combinations of copulation songs and pheromones. The high level of complexity observed raises important questions concerning the epidemiological consequences of this incipient speciation process

Association of breast cancer risk with genetic variants showing differential allelic expression: Identification of a novel breast cancer susceptibility locus at 4q21

There are significant inter-individual differences in the levels of gene expression. Through modulation of gene expression, $\textit{cis}$-acting variants represent an important source of phenotypic variation. Consequently, $\textit{cis}$-regulatory SNPs associated with differential allelic expression are functional candidates for further investigation as disease-causing variants. To investigate whether common variants associated with differential allelic expression were involved in breast cancer susceptibility, a list of genes was established on the basis of their involvement in cancer related pathways and/or mechanisms. Thereafter, using data from a genome-wide map of allelic expression associated SNPs, 313 genetic variants were selected and their association with breast cancer risk was then evaluated in 46,451 breast cancer cases and 42,599 controls of European ancestry ascertained from 41 studies participating in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. The associations were evaluated with overall breast cancer risk and with estrogen receptor negative and positive disease. One novel breast cancer susceptibility locus on 4q21 (rs11099601) was identified (OR = 1.05, $\textit{P}$ = 5.6x10$^{-6}$). rs11099601 lies in a 135 kb linkage disequilibrium block containing several genes, including, $\textit{HELQ}$, encoding the protein HEL308 a DNA dependant ATPase and DNA Helicase involved in DNA repair, $\textit{MRPS18C}$ encoding the Mitochondrial Ribosomal Protein S18C and $\textit{FAM175A (ABRAXAS)}$, encoding a $\textit{BRCA1}$ BRCT domain-interacting protein involved in DNA damage response and double-strand break (DSB) repair. Expression QTL analysis in breast cancer tissue showed rs11099601 to be associated with $\textit{HELQ }$ ($\textit{P}$ = 8.28x10$^{-14}$), $\textit{MRPS18C}$ ($\textit{P}$ = 1.94x10$^{-27}$) and $\textit{FAM175A }$ ($\textit{P}$ = 3.83x10$^{-3}$), explaining about 20%, 14% and 1%, respectively of the variance inexpression of these genes in breast carcinomas.Information regarding funding can be found in the published article or the publisher's website. Funders include Cancer Research UK and the National Institute for Health Research

An intergenic risk locus containing an enhancer deletion in 2q35 modulates breast cancer risk by deregulating IGFBP5 expression.

Breast cancer is the most diagnosed malignancy and the second leading cause of cancer mortality in females. Previous association studies have identified variants on 2q35 associated with the risk of breast cancer. To identify functional susceptibility loci for breast cancer, we interrogated the 2q35 gene desert for chromatin architecture and functional variation correlated with gene expression. We report a novel intergenic breast cancer risk locus containing an enhancer copy number variation (enCNV; deletion) located approximately 400Kb upstream to IGFBP5, which overlaps an intergenic ERα-bound enhancer that loops to the IGFBP5 promoter. The enCNV is correlated with modified ERα binding and monoallelic-repression of IGFBP5 following estrogen treatment. We investigated the association of enCNV genotype with breast cancer in 1,182 cases and 1,362 controls, and replicate our findings in an independent set of 62,533 cases and 60,966 controls from 41 case control studies and 11 GWAS. We report a dose-dependent inverse association of 2q35 enCNV genotype (percopy OR=0.68 95%CI 0.55-0.83, P=0.0002; replication OR=0.77 95%CI 0.73-0.82, P=2.1x10(-19)) and identify 13 additional linked variants (r(2)>0.8) in the 20Kb linkage block containing the enCNV (P=3.2x10(-15) - 5.6x10(-17)). These associations were independent of previously reported 2q35 variants, rs13387042/rs4442975 and rs16857609, and were stronger for ER-positive than ER-negative disease. Together, these results suggest that 2q35 breast cancer risk loci may be mediating their effect through IGFBP5

An intergenic risk locus containing an enhancer deletion in 2q35 modulates breast cancer risk by deregulating IGFBP5 expression.

Breast cancer is the most diagnosed malignancy and the second leading cause of cancer mortality in females. Previous association studies have identified variants on 2q35 associated with the risk of breast cancer. To identify functional susceptibility loci for breast cancer, we interrogated the 2q35 gene desert for chromatin architecture and functional variation correlated with gene expression. We report a novel intergenic breast cancer risk locus containing an enhancer copy number variation (enCNV; deletion) located approximately 400Kb upstream to IGFBP5, which overlaps an intergenic ERα-bound enhancer that loops to the IGFBP5 promoter. The enCNV is correlated with modified ERα binding and monoallelic-repression of IGFBP5 following estrogen treatment. We investigated the association of enCNV genotype with breast cancer in 1,182 cases and 1,362 controls, and replicate our findings in an independent set of 62,533 cases and 60,966 controls from 41 case control studies and 11 GWAS. We report a dose-dependent inverse association of 2q35 enCNV genotype (percopy OR=0.68 95%CI 0.55-0.83, P=0.0002; replication OR=0.77 95%CI 0.73-0.82, P=2.1x10(-19)) and identify 13 additional linked variants (r(2)>0.8) in the 20Kb linkage block containing the enCNV (P=3.2x10(-15) - 5.6x10(-17)). These associations were independent of previously reported 2q35 variants, rs13387042/rs4442975 and rs16857609, and were stronger for ER-positive than ER-negative disease. Together, these results suggest that 2q35 breast cancer risk loci may be mediating their effect through IGFBP5