Estimating the number needed to treat from continuous outcomes in randomised controlled trials: methodological challenges and worked example using data from the UK Back Pain Exercise and Manipulation (BEAM) trial

Background Reporting numbers needed to treat (NNT) improves interpretability of trial results. It is unusual that continuous outcomes are converted to numbers of individual responders to treatment (i.e., those who reach a particular threshold of change); and deteriorations prevented are only rarely considered. We consider how numbers needed to treat can be derived from continuous outcomes; illustrated with a worked example showing the methods and challenges. Methods We used data from the UK BEAM trial (n = 1, 334) of physical treatments for back pain; originally reported as showing, at best, small to moderate benefits. Participants were randomised to receive 'best care' in general practice, the comparator treatment, or one of three manual and/or exercise treatments: 'best care' plus manipulation, exercise, or manipulation followed by exercise. We used established consensus thresholds for improvement in Roland-Morris disability questionnaire scores at three and twelve months to derive NNTs for improvements and for benefits (improvements gained+deteriorations prevented). Results At three months, NNT estimates ranged from 5.1 (95% CI 3.4 to 10.7) to 9.0 (5.0 to 45.5) for exercise, 5.0 (3.4 to 9.8) to 5.4 (3.8 to 9.9) for manipulation, and 3.3 (2.5 to 4.9) to 4.8 (3.5 to 7.8) for manipulation followed by exercise. Corresponding between-group mean differences in the Roland-Morris disability questionnaire were 1.6 (0.8 to 2.3), 1.4 (0.6 to 2.1), and 1.9 (1.2 to 2.6) points. Conclusion In contrast to small mean differences originally reported, NNTs were small and could be attractive to clinicians, patients, and purchasers. NNTs can aid the interpretation of results of trials using continuous outcomes. Where possible, these should be reported alongside mean differences. Challenges remain in calculating NNTs for some continuous outcomes

Methodological criteria for the assessment of moderators in systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials : a consensus study

Background: Current methodological guidelines provide advice about the assessment of sub-group analysis within RCTs, but do not specify explicit criteria for assessment. Our objective was to provide researchers with a set of criteria that will facilitate the grading of evidence for moderators, in systematic reviews. Method: We developed a set of criteria from methodological manuscripts (n = 18) using snowballing technique, and electronic database searches. Criteria were reviewed by an international Delphi panel (n = 21), comprising authors who have published methodological papers in this area, and researchers who have been active in the study of sub-group analysis in RCTs. We used the Research ANd Development/University of California Los Angeles appropriateness method to assess consensus on the quantitative data. Free responses were coded for consensus and disagreement. In a subsequent round additional criteria were extracted from the Cochrane Reviewers’ Handbook, and the process was repeated. Results: The recommendations are that meta-analysts report both confirmatory and exploratory findings for subgroups analysis. Confirmatory findings must only come from studies in which a specific theory/evidence based apriori statement is made. Exploratory findings may be used to inform future/subsequent trials. However, for inclusion in the meta-analysis of moderators, the following additional criteria should be applied to each study: Baseline factors should be measured prior to randomisation, measurement of baseline factors should be of adequate reliability and validity, and a specific test of the interaction between baseline factors and interventions must be presented. Conclusions: There is consensus from a group of 21 international experts that methodological criteria to assess moderators within systematic reviews of RCTs is both timely and necessary. The consensus from the experts resulted in five criteria divided into two groups when synthesising evidence: confirmatory findings to support hypotheses about moderators and exploratory findings to inform future research. These recommendations are discussed in reference to previous recommendations for evaluating and reporting moderator studies

Microevolution during the emergence of a monophasic Salmonella Typhimurium epidemic in the United Kingdom

Microevolutionary events associated with the emergence and clonal expansion of new 27 epidemic clones of bacterial pathogens hold the key to understanding the drivers of 28 epidemiological success. We describe a comparative whole genome sequence and 29 phylogenomic analysis of monophasic Salmonella Typhimurium isolates from the UK 30 and Italy from 2005-2012. Monophasic isolates from this time formed a single clade 31 distinct from recent monophasic epidemic clones described previously from North 32 America and Spain. The current UK monophasic epidemic clones encode a novel 33 genomic island encoding resistance to heavy metals (SGI-3), and composite transposon 34 encoding antibiotic resistance genes not present in other Typhimurium isolates, that 35 may have contributed to the epidemiological success. We also report a remarkable 36 degree of genotypic variation that accumulated during clonal expansion of a UK 37 epidemic including multiple independent acquisitions of a novel prophage carrying the 38 sopE gene and multiple deletion events affecting the phase II flagellin locus

Androgen receptor phosphorylation at serine 515 by Cdk1 predicts biochemical relapse in prostate cancer patients

<br>Background:Prostate cancer cell growth is dependent upon androgen receptor (AR) activation, which is regulated by specific kinases. The aim of the current study is to establish if AR phosphorylation by Cdk1 or ERK1/2 is of prognostic significance.</br> <br>Methods: Scansite 2.0 was utilised to predict which AR sites are phosphorylated by Cdk1 and ERK1/2. Immunohistochemistry for these sites was then performed on 90 hormone-naive prostate cancer specimens. The interaction between Cdk1/ERK1/2 and AR phosphorylation was investigated in vitro using LNCaP cells.</br><br>Results:Phosphorylation of AR at serine 515 (pAR(S515)) and PSA at diagnosis were independently associated with decreased time to biochemical relapse. Cdk1 and pCdk1(161), but not ERK1/2, correlated with pAR(S515). High expression of pAR(S515) in patients with a PSA at diagnosis of ≤20 ng ml(-1) was associated with shorter time to biochemical relapse (P=0.019). This translated into a reduction in disease-specific survival (10-year survival, 38.1% vs 100%, P<0.001). In vitro studies demonstrated that treatment with Roscovitine (a Cdk inhibitor) caused a reduction in pCdk1(161) expression, pAR(S515)expression and cellular proliferation.</br> <br>Conclusion: In prostate cancer patients with PSA at diagnosis of ≤20 ng ml(-1), phosphorylation of AR at serine 515 by Cdk1 may be an independent prognostic marker.</br&gt

Evaluation of a robot-assisted therapy for children with autism and intellectual disability

It is well established that robots can be suitable assistants in the care and treatment of children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). However, the majority of the research focuses on stand-alone interventions, high-functioning individuals and the success is evaluated via qualitative analysis of videos recorded during the interaction. In this paper, we present a preliminary evaluation of our on-going research on integrating robot-assisted therapy in the treatment of children with ASD and Intellectual Disability (ID), which is the most common case. The experiment described here integrates a robot-assisted imitation training in the standard treat‐ ment of six hospitalised children with various level of ID, who were engaged by a robot on imitative tasks and their progress assessed via a quantitative psycho- diagnostic tool. Results show success in the training and encourage the use of a robotic assistant in the care of children with ASD and ID with the exception of those with profound ID, who may need a different approach

Cosmology With Non-Minimally Coupled K-Field

We consider non-minimally coupled (with gravity) scalar field with non-canonical kinetic energy. The form of the kinetic term is of Dirac-Born-Infeld (DBI) form.We study the early evolution of the universe when it is sourced only by the k-field, as well as late time evolution when both the matter and k-field are present. For the k-field, we have considered constant potential as well as potential inspired from Boundary String Field Theory (B-SFT). We show that it is possible to have inflationary solution in early time as well as late time accelerating phase. The solutions also exhibit attractor property in a sense that it does not depend on the initial conditions for a certain values of the parameters.Comment: 10 pages, Revtex style, 14 eps figures, to appear in General Relativity and Gravitatio

Strengthening and stretching for rheumatoid arthritis of the hand (SARAH). A randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation

Study registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN 89936343.Background - The effectiveness of exercise for improving hand and wrist function in people with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is uncertain. Objectives - The study aims were (1) to estimate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of adding an optimised exercise programme for hands and upper limbs to standard care for patients with RA; and (2) to qualitatively describe the experience of participants in the trial with a particular emphasis on acceptability of the intervention, exercise behaviours and reasons for adherence/non-adherence.This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 19, No. 19. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. This report has been developed in association with the NIHR Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care Oxford and the NIHR Biomedical Research Unit Funding Scheme. This project benefited from facilities funded through Birmingham Science City Translational Medicine Clinical Research and Infrastructure Trials Platform, with support from Advantage West Midlands

The Importance of Conserving Biodiversity Outside of Protected Areas in Mediterranean Ecosystems

Mediterranean-type ecosystems constitute one of the rarest terrestrial biomes and yet they are extraordinarily biodiverse. Home to over 250 million people, the five regions where these ecosystems are found have climate and coastal conditions that make them highly desirable human habitats. The current conservation landscape does not reflect the mediterranean biome's rarity and its importance for plant endemism. Habitat conversion will clearly outpace expansion of formal protected-area networks, and conservationists must augment this traditional strategy with new approaches to sustain the mediterranean biota. Using regional scale datasets, we determine the area of land in each of the five regions that is protected, converted (e.g., to urban or industrial), impacted (e.g., intensive, cultivated agriculture), or lands that we consider to have conservation potential. The latter are natural and semi-natural lands that are unprotected (e.g., private range lands) but sustain numerous native species and associated habitats. Chile has the greatest proportion of its land (75%) in this category and California-Mexico the least (48%). To illustrate the potential for achieving mediterranean biodiversity conservation on these lands, we use species-area curves generated from ecoregion scale data on native plant species richness and vertebrate species richness. For example, if biodiversity could be sustained on even 25% of existing unprotected, natural and semi-natural lands, we estimate that the habitat of more than 6,000 species could be represented. This analysis suggests that if unprotected natural and semi-natural lands are managed in a manner that allows for persistence of native species, we can realize significant additional biodiversity gains. Lasting biodiversity protection at the scale needed requires unprecedented collaboration among stakeholders to promote conservation both inside and outside of traditional protected areas, including on lands where people live and work

The Impact of Pandemic Influenza H1N1 on Health-Related Quality of Life: A Prospective Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND: While the H1N1v influenza pandemic in 2009 was clinically mild, with a low case-fatality rate, the overall disease burden measured in quality-adjusted life years (QALY) lost has not been estimated. Such a measure would allow comparison with other diseases and assessment of the cost-effectiveness of pandemic control measures. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Cases of H1N1v confirmed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and PCR negative cases with similar influenza-like illness (ILI controls) in 7 regions of England were sent two questionnaires, one within a week of symptom onset and one two weeks later, requesting information on duration of illness, work loss and antiviral use together with EQ-5D questionnaires. Results were compared with those for seasonal influenza from a systematic literature review. A total QALY loss for the 2009 pandemic in England was calculated based on the estimated total clinical cases and reported deaths. A total of 655 questionnaires were sent and 296 (45%) returned. Symptoms and average illness duration were similar between confirmed cases and ILI controls (8.8 days and 8.7 days respectively). Days off work were greater for cases than ILI controls (7.3 and 4.9 days respectively, p  =  0.003). The quality-adjusted life days lost was 2.92 for confirmed cases and 2.74 for ILI controls, with a reduction in QALY loss after prompt use of antivirals in confirmed cases. The overall QALY loss in the pandemic was estimated at 28,126 QALYs (22,267 discounted) of which 40% was due to deaths (24% with discounting). CONCLUSION: Given the global public health significance of influenza, it is remarkable that no previous prospective study of the QALY loss of influenza using standardised and well validated methods has been performed. Although the QALY loss was minor for individual patients, the estimated total burden of influenza over the pandemic was substantial when compared to other infectious diseases