Development of a new version of the Liverpool Malaria Model. II. Calibration and validation for West Africa

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the first part of this study, an extensive literature survey led to the construction of a new version of the <it>Liverpool Malaria Model </it>(LMM). A new set of parameter settings was provided and a new development of the mathematical formulation of important processes related to the vector population was performed within the LMM. In this part of the study, so far undetermined model parameters are calibrated through the use of data from field studies. The latter are also used to validate the new LMM version, which is furthermore compared against the original LMM version.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>For the calibration and validation of the LMM, numerous entomological and parasitological field observations were gathered for West Africa. Continuous and quality-controlled temperature and precipitation time series were constructed using intermittent raw data from 34 weather stations across West Africa. The meteorological time series served as the LMM data input. The skill of LMM simulations was tested for 830 different sets of parameter settings of the undetermined LMM parameters. The model version with the highest skill score in terms of entomological malaria variables was taken as the final setting of the new LMM version.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Validation of the new LMM version in West Africa revealed that the simulations compare well with entomological field observations. The new version reproduces realistic transmission rates and simulated malaria seasons are comparable to field observations. Overall the new model version performs much better than the original model. The new model version enables the detection of the epidemic malaria potential at fringes of endemic areas and, more importantly, it is now applicable to the vast area of malaria endemicity in the humid African tropics.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A review of entomological and parasitological data from West Africa enabled the construction of a new LMM version. This model version represents a significant step forward in the modelling of a weather-driven malaria transmission cycle. The LMM is now more suitable for the use in malaria early warning systems as well as for malaria projections based on climate change scenarios, both in epidemic and endemic malaria areas.</p

The Quantitative Methods Boot Camp:Teaching Quantitative Thinking and Computing Skills to Graduate Students in the Life Sciences

<div><p>The past decade has seen a rapid increase in the ability of biologists to collect large amounts of data. It is therefore vital that research biologists acquire the necessary skills during their training to visualize, analyze, and interpret such data. To begin to meet this need, we have developed a “boot camp” in quantitative methods for biology graduate students at Harvard Medical School. The goal of this short, intensive course is to enable students to use computational tools to visualize and analyze data, to strengthen their computational thinking skills, and to simulate and thus extend their intuition about the behavior of complex biological systems. The boot camp teaches basic programming using biological examples from statistics, image processing, and data analysis. This integrative approach to teaching programming and quantitative reasoning motivates students’ engagement by demonstrating the relevance of these skills to their work in life science laboratories. Students also have the opportunity to analyze their own data or explore a topic of interest in more detail. The class is taught with a mixture of short lectures, Socratic discussion, and in-class exercises. Students spend approximately 40% of their class time working through both short and long problems. A high instructor-to-student ratio allows students to get assistance or additional challenges when needed, thus enhancing the experience for students at all levels of mastery. Data collected from end-of-course surveys from the last five offerings of the course (between 2012 and 2014) show that students report high learning gains and feel that the course prepares them for solving quantitative and computational problems they will encounter in their research. We outline our course here which, together with the course materials freely available online under a Creative Commons License, should help to facilitate similar efforts by others.</p></div

Elective cancer surgery in COVID-19-free surgical pathways during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: An international, multicenter, comparative cohort study

PURPOSE As cancer surgery restarts after the first COVID-19 wave, health care providers urgently require data to determine where elective surgery is best performed. This study aimed to determine whether COVID-19–free surgical pathways were associated with lower postoperative pulmonary complication rates compared with hospitals with no defined pathway. PATIENTS AND METHODS This international, multicenter cohort study included patients who underwent elective surgery for 10 solid cancer types without preoperative suspicion of SARS-CoV-2. Participating hospitals included patients from local emergence of SARS-CoV-2 until April 19, 2020. At the time of surgery, hospitals were defined as having a COVID-19–free surgical pathway (complete segregation of the operating theater, critical care, and inpatient ward areas) or no defined pathway (incomplete or no segregation, areas shared with patients with COVID-19). The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications (pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, unexpected ventilation). RESULTS Of 9,171 patients from 447 hospitals in 55 countries, 2,481 were operated on in COVID-19–free surgical pathways. Patients who underwent surgery within COVID-19–free surgical pathways were younger with fewer comorbidities than those in hospitals with no defined pathway but with similar proportions of major surgery. After adjustment, pulmonary complication rates were lower with COVID-19–free surgical pathways (2.2% v 4.9%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.86). This was consistent in sensitivity analyses for low-risk patients (American Society of Anesthesiologists grade 1/2), propensity score–matched models, and patients with negative SARS-CoV-2 preoperative tests. The postoperative SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was also lower in COVID-19–free surgical pathways (2.1% v 3.6%; aOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.76). CONCLUSION Within available resources, dedicated COVID-19–free surgical pathways should be established to provide safe elective cancer surgery during current and before future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

Elective Cancer Surgery in COVID-19-Free Surgical Pathways During the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: An International, Multicenter, Comparative Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: As cancer surgery restarts after the first COVID-19 wave, health care providers urgently require data to determine where elective surgery is best performed. This study aimed to determine whether COVID-19-free surgical pathways were associated with lower postoperative pulmonary complication rates compared with hospitals with no defined pathway. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This international, multicenter cohort study included patients who underwent elective surgery for 10 solid cancer types without preoperative suspicion of SARS-CoV-2. Participating hospitals included patients from local emergence of SARS-CoV-2 until April 19, 2020. At the time of surgery, hospitals were defined as having a COVID-19-free surgical pathway (complete segregation of the operating theater, critical care, and inpatient ward areas) or no defined pathway (incomplete or no segregation, areas shared with patients with COVID-19). The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications (pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, unexpected ventilation). RESULTS: Of 9,171 patients from 447 hospitals in 55 countries, 2,481 were operated on in COVID-19-free surgical pathways. Patients who underwent surgery within COVID-19-free surgical pathways were younger with fewer comorbidities than those in hospitals with no defined pathway but with similar proportions of major surgery. After adjustment, pulmonary complication rates were lower with COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.2% v 4.9%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.86). This was consistent in sensitivity analyses for low-risk patients (American Society of Anesthesiologists grade 1/2), propensity score-matched models, and patients with negative SARS-CoV-2 preoperative tests. The postoperative SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was also lower in COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.1% v 3.6%; aOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.76). CONCLUSION: Within available resources, dedicated COVID-19-free surgical pathways should be established to provide safe elective cancer surgery during current and before future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

International Consensus Statement on Rhinology and Allergy: Rhinosinusitis

Background: The 5 years since the publication of the first International Consensus Statement on Allergy and Rhinology: Rhinosinusitis (ICAR‐RS) has witnessed foundational progress in our understanding and treatment of rhinologic disease. These advances are reflected within the more than 40 new topics covered within the ICAR‐RS‐2021 as well as updates to the original 140 topics. This executive summary consolidates the evidence‐based findings of the document. Methods: ICAR‐RS presents over 180 topics in the forms of evidence‐based reviews with recommendations (EBRRs), evidence‐based reviews, and literature reviews. The highest grade structured recommendations of the EBRR sections are summarized in this executive summary. Results: ICAR‐RS‐2021 covers 22 topics regarding the medical management of RS, which are grade A/B and are presented in the executive summary. Additionally, 4 topics regarding the surgical management of RS are grade A/B and are presented in the executive summary. Finally, a comprehensive evidence‐based management algorithm is provided. Conclusion: This ICAR‐RS‐2021 executive summary provides a compilation of the evidence‐based recommendations for medical and surgical treatment of the most common forms of RS

Diálogo público - privado del sector lácteo de América Latina: Políticas sectoriales y acciones de fomento ante la crisis de COVID-19

Participantes: Daniel Pelegrina, Presidente FEPALE; Álvaro Coto, Presidente FECALAC y Manuel Otero, Director General IICA, Andrés Padilla, Analista de lácteos de Rabobank, Butch Speth, Director del Dairy Market News, Erick Quirós, Coordinador Región Central del IICA, Miguel García Winter, Subsecretarío de Agricultura y Desarrollo Rural de México, Carlos María Uriarte, Ministro de Ganadería, Agricultura y Pesca de Uruguay, Daniel Pelegrina, FEPALE Ramiro Pérez, FECALAC.En el marco del mes internacional de la leche, el IICA, FECALAC y FEPALE, generan un espacio virtual de diálogo público - privado que facilite el diseño de políticas de fomento y fortalecimiento del sector lácteo de las diversas regiones de América, con el fin de contar con una estrategia sectorial para atender la crisis del COVID-19. En América Latina hay unos 3 millones de productores de leche. La mayoría son pequeños agricultores que contribuyen a la seguridad alimentaria y la nutrición de los hogares. Además del sector productor existen complejos industriales de gran magnitud, junto a estos también se desarrollan pymes, que se dedican especialmente a la producción de derivados