Simulation or cohort models? Continuous time simulation and discretized Markov models to estimate cost-effectiveness

The choice of model design for decision analytic models in cost-effectiveness analysis has been the subject of discussion. The current work addresses this issue by noting that, when time is to be explicitly modelled, we need to represent phenomena occurring in continuous time. Multistate models evaluated in continuous time might be used but closed form solutions of expected time in each state may not exist or may be difficult to obtain. Two approximations can then be used for costeffectiveness estimation: (1) simulation models, where continuous time estimates are obtained through Monte Carlo simulation, and (2) discretized models. This work draws recommendations on their use by showing that, when these alternative models can be applied, it is preferable to implement a cohort discretized model than a simulation model. Whilst the bias from the first can be minimized by reducing the cycle length, the second is inherently stochastic. Even though specialized literature advocates this framework, the current practice in economic evaluation is to define clinically meaningful cycle lengths for discretized models, disregarding potential biases.

Black holes in three dimensional higher spin gravity: A review

We review recent progress in the construction of black holes in three dimensional higher spin gravity theories. Starting from spin-3 gravity and working our way toward the theory of an infinite tower of higher spins coupled to matter, we show how to harness higher spin gauge invariance to consistently generalize familiar notions of black holes. We review the construction of black holes with conserved higher spin charges and the computation of their partition functions to leading asymptotic order. In view of the AdS/CFT correspondence as applied to certain vector-like conformal field theories with extended conformal symmetry, we successfully compare to CFT calculations in a generalized Cardy regime. A brief recollection of pertinent aspects of ordinary gravity is also given.Comment: 49 pages, harvmac, invited contribution to J. Phys. A special volume on "Higher Spin Theories and AdS/CFT" edited by M. R. Gaberdiel and M. Vasilie

Second-Order Formalism for 3D Spin-3 Gravity

A second-order formalism for the theory of 3D spin-3 gravity is considered. Such a formalism is obtained by solving the torsion-free condition for the spin connection \omega^a_{\mu}, and substituting the result into the action integral. In the first-order formalism of the spin-3 gravity defined in terms of SL(3,R) X SL(3,R) Chern-Simons (CS) theory, however, the generalized torsion-free condition cannot be easily solved for the spin connection, because the vielbein e^a_{\mu} itself is not invertible. To circumvent this problem, extra vielbein-like fields e^a_{\mu\nu} are introduced as a functional of e^a_{\mu}. New set of affine-like connections \Gamma_{\mu M}^N are defined in terms of the metric-like fields, and a generalization of the Riemann curvature tensor is also presented. In terms of this generalized Riemann tensor the action integral in the second-order formalism is expressed. The transformation rules of the metric and the spin-3 gauge field under the generalized diffeomorphims are obtained explicitly. As in Einstein gravity, the new affine-like connections are related to the spin connection by a certain gauge transformation, and a gravitational CS term expressed in terms of the new connections is also presented.Comment: 40 pages, no figures. v2:references added, coefficients of eqs in apppendix D corrected, minor typos also corrected, v3:Version accepted for publication in Classical and Quantum Gravit

Evidence for t\bar{t}\gamma Production and Measurement of \sigma_t\bar{t}\gamma / \sigma_t\bar{t}

Using data corresponding to 6.0/fb of ppbar collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV collected by the CDF II detector, we present a cross section measurement of top-quark pair production with an additional radiated photon. The events are selected by looking for a lepton, a photon, significant transverse momentum imbalance, large total transverse energy, and three or more jets, with at least one identified as containing a b quark. The ttbar+photon sample requires the photon to have 10 GeV or more of transverse energy, and to be in the central region. Using an event selection optimized for the ttbar+photon candidate sample we measure the production cross section of, and the ratio of cross sections of the two samples. Control samples in the dilepton+photon and lepton+photon+\met, channels are constructed to aid in decay product identification and background measurements. We observe 30 ttbar+photon candidate events compared to the standard model expectation of 26.9 +/- 3.4 events. We measure the ttbar+photon cross section to be 0.18+0.08 pb, and the ratio of the cross section of ttbar+photon to ttbar to be 0.024 +/- 0.009. Assuming no ttbar+photon production, we observe a probability of 0.0015 of the background events alone producing 30 events or more, corresponding to 3.0 standard deviations.Comment: 9 pages, 3 figure

Precision Top-Quark Mass Measurements at CDF

We present a precision measurement of the top-quark mass using the full sample of Tevatron $\sqrt{s}=1.96$ TeV proton-antiproton collisions collected by the CDF II detector, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 8.7 $fb^{-1}$. Using a sample of $t\bar{t}$ candidate events decaying into the lepton+jets channel, we obtain distributions of the top-quark masses and the invariant mass of two jets from the $W$ boson decays from data. We then compare these distributions to templates derived from signal and background samples to extract the top-quark mass and the energy scale of the calorimeter jets with {\it in situ} calibration. The likelihood fit of the templates from signal and background events to the data yields the single most-precise measurement of the top-quark mass, \mtop = 172.85 \pm$0.71 (stat)$\pm$0.85 (syst) GeV/c^{2}.$Comment: submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

A search for resonant production of ttˉt\bar{t} pairs in $4.8\ \rm{fb}^{-1}ofintegratedluminosityof of integrated luminosity of p\bar{p}collisionsat collisions at \sqrt{s}=1.96\ \rm{TeV}$

We search for resonant production of tt pairs in 4.8 fb^{-1} integrated luminosity of ppbar collision data at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV in the lepton+jets decay channel, where one top quark decays leptonically and the other hadronically. A matrix element reconstruction technique is used; for each event a probability density function (pdf) of the ttbar candidate invariant mass is sampled. These pdfs are used to construct a likelihood function, whereby the cross section for resonant ttbar production is estimated, given a hypothetical resonance mass and width. The data indicate no evidence of resonant production of ttbar pairs. A benchmark model of leptophobic Z \rightarrow ttbar is excluded with m_{Z'} < 900 GeV at 95% confidence level.Comment: accepted for publication in Physical Review D Sep 21, 201

Combined search for the standard model Higgs boson decaying to a bb pair using the full CDF data set

We combine the results of searches for the standard model Higgs boson based on the full CDF Run II data set obtained from sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV p-pbar collisions at the Fermilab Tevatron corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 9.45/fb. The searches are conducted for Higgs bosons that are produced in association with a W or Z boson, have masses in the range 90-150 GeV/c^2, and decay into bb pairs. An excess of data is present that is inconsistent with the background prediction at the level of 2.5 standard deviations (the most significant local excess is 2.7 standard deviations).Comment: To be published in Phys. Rev. Lett (v2 contains minor updates based on comments from PRL

Measurements of branching fraction ratios and CP-asymmetries in suppressed B^- -> D(-> K^+ pi^-)K^- and B^- -> D(-> K^+ pi^-)pi^- decays

We report the first reconstruction in hadron collisions of the suppressed decays B^- -> D(-> K^+ pi^-)K^- and B^- -> D(-> K^+ pi^-)pi^-, sensitive to the CKM phase gamma, using data from 7 fb^-1 of integrated luminosity collected by the CDF II detector at the Tevatron collider. We reconstruct a signal for the B^- -> D(-> K^+ pi^-)K^- suppressed mode with a significance of 3.2 standard deviations, and measure the ratios of the suppressed to favored branching fractions R(K) = [22.0 \pm 8.6(stat)\pm 2.6(syst)]\times 10^-3, R^+(K) = [42.6\pm 13.7(stat)\pm 2.8(syst)]\times 10^-3, R^-(K)= [3.8\pm 10.3(stat)\pm 2.7(syst]\times 10^-3, as well as the direct CP-violating asymmetry A(K) = -0.82\pm 0.44(stat)\pm 0.09(syst) of this mode. Corresponding quantities for B^- -> D(-> K^+ pi^-)pi^- decay are also reported.Comment: 8 pages, 1 figure, accepted by Phys.Rev.D Rapid Communications for Publicatio

Search for Neutral Higgs Bosons in Events with Multiple Bottom Quarks at the Tevatron

The combination of searches performed by the CDF and D0 collaborations at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider for neutral Higgs bosons produced in association with b quarks is reported. The data, corresponding to 2.6 fb-1 of integrated luminosity at CDF and 5.2 fb-1 at D0, have been collected in final states containing three or more b jets. Upper limits are set on the cross section multiplied by the branching ratio varying between 44 pb and 0.7 pb in the Higgs boson mass range 90 to 300 GeV, assuming production of a narrow scalar boson. Significant enhancements to the production of Higgs bosons can be found in theories beyond the standard model, for example in supersymmetry. The results are interpreted as upper limits in the parameter space of the minimal supersymmetric standard model in a benchmark scenario favoring this decay mode.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figure