Tropical and subtropical cloud transitions in weather and climate prediction models: The GCSS/WGNE pacific cross-section intercomparison (GPCI)

International audienceA model evaluation approach is proposed in which weather and climate prediction models are analyzed along a Pacific Ocean cross section, from the stratocumulus regions off the coast of California, across the shallow convection dominated trade winds, to the deep convection regions of the ITCZ-the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Cloud System Study/Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (GCSS/WGNE) Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison (GPCI). The main goal of GPCI is to evaluate and help understand and improve the representation of tropical and subtropical cloud processes in weather and climate prediction models. In this paper, a detailed analysis of cloud regime transitions along the cross section from the subtropics to the tropics for the season June-July-August of 1998 is presented. This GPCI study confirms many of the typical weather and climate prediction model problems in the representation of clouds: underestimation of clouds in the stratocumulus regime by most models with the corresponding consequences in terms of shortwave radiation biases; overestimation of clouds by the 40-yrECMWFRe-Analysis (ERA-40) in the deep tropics (in particular) with the corresponding impact in the outgoing longwave radiation; large spread between the different models in terms of cloud cover, liquid water path and shortwave radiation; significant differences between the models in terms of vertical cross sections of cloud properties (in particular), vertical velocity, and relative humidity. An alternative analysis of cloud cover mean statistics is proposed where sharp gradients in cloud cover along the GPCI transect are taken into account. This analysis shows that the negative cloud bias of some models and ERA-40 in the stratocumulus regions [as compared to the first International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP)] is associated not only with lower values of cloud cover in these regimes, but also with a stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition that occurs too early along the trade wind Lagrangian trajectory. Histograms of cloud cover along the cross section differ significantly between models. Some models exhibit a quasi-bimodal structure with cloud cover being either very large (close to 100%) or very small, while other models show a more continuous transition. The ISCCP observations suggest that reality is in-between these two extreme examples. These different patterns reflect the diverse nature of the cloud, boundary layer, and convection parameterizations in the participating weather and climate prediction models. © 2011 American Meteorological Society

Ocean observations in support of studies and forecasts of tropical and extratropical cyclones

© The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Domingues, R., Kuwano-Yoshida, A., Chardon-Maldonado, P., Todd, R. E., Halliwell, G., Kim, H., Lin, I., Sato, K., Narazaki, T., Shay, L. K., Miles, T., Glenn, S., Zhang, J. A., Jayne, S. R., Centurioni, L., Le Henaff, M., Foltz, G. R., Bringas, F., Ali, M. M., DiMarco, S. F., Hosoda, S., Fukuoka, T., LaCour, B., Mehra, A., Sanabia, E. R., Gyakum, J. R., Dong, J., Knaff, J. A., & Goni, G. Ocean observations in support of studies and forecasts of tropical and extratropical cyclones. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6, (2019): 446, doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00446.Over the past decade, measurements from the climate-oriented ocean observing system have been key to advancing the understanding of extreme weather events that originate and intensify over the ocean, such as tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical bomb cyclones (ECs). In order to foster further advancements to predict and better understand these extreme weather events, a need for a dedicated observing system component specifically to support studies and forecasts of TCs and ECs has been identified, but such a system has not yet been implemented. New technologies, pilot networks, targeted deployments of instruments, and state-of-the art coupled numerical models have enabled advances in research and forecast capabilities and illustrate a potential framework for future development. Here, applications and key results made possible by the different ocean observing efforts in support of studies and forecasts of TCs and ECs, as well as recent advances in observing technologies and strategies are reviewed. Then a vision and specific recommendations for the next decade are discussed.This study was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and JSPS KAKENHI (Grant Numbers: JP17K19093, JP16K12591, and JP16H01846)

Multi-susceptibility genes associated with the risk of the development stages of esophageal squamous cell cancer in Feicheng County

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association of multi-genotype polymorphisms with the stepwise progression of esophageal squamous cell cancer (ESCC) and the possibility of predicting those at higher risk.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 1,004 subjects were recruited from Feicheng County, China, between Jan. 2004 and Dec. 2007 and examined by endoscopy for esophageal lesions. These subjects included 270 patients with basal cell hyperplasia (BCH), 262 patients with esophageal squamous cell dysplasia (ESCD), 226 patients with ESCC, and 246 controls with Lugol-voiding area but diagnosed as having normal esophageal squamous epithelial cells by histopathology. The genotypes for <it>CYP2E1 </it>G1259C, <it>hOGG1 </it>C326G, <it>MTHFR </it>C677T, <it>MPO </it>G463A, and <it>ALDH2 </it>allele genes were identified in blood samples collected from all participants.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The alleles <it>ALDH2 </it>and <it>MTHFR </it>C677T were critical for determining individual susceptibility to esophageal cancer. Compared to the <it>ALDH </it>1*1 genotype, the <it>ALDH </it>2*2 genotype was significantly associated with increased risks of BCH, ESCD, and ESCC. However, the TT genotype of <it>MTHFR </it>C677T only increased the risk of ESCC. Further analysis revealed that the combination of the high-risk genotypes 2*2/1*2 of <it>ALDH </it>2 and TT/TC of <it>MTHFR </it>C677T increased the risk of BCH by 4.0 fold, of ESCD by 3.7 fold, and ESSC by 8.72 fold. The generalized odds ratio (OR_G) of the two combined genotypes was 1.83 (95%CI: 1.55-2.16), indicating a strong genetic association with the risk of carcinogenic progression in the esophagus.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The study demonstrated that the genotypes <it>ALDH2*2 </it>and <it>MTHFR </it>677TT conferred elevated risk for developing esophageal carcinoma and that the two susceptibility genotypes combined to synergistically increase the risk.</p

Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics

Dynamical processes in the atmosphere and ocean are central to determining the large-scale drivers of regional climate change, yet their predictive understanding is poor. Here, we identify three frontline challenges in climate dynamics where significant progress can be made to inform adaptation: response of storms, blocks and jet streams to external forcing; basin-to-basin and tropical–extratropical teleconnections; and the development of non-linear predictive theory. We highlight opportunities and techniques for making immediate progress in these areas, which critically involve the development of high-resolution coupled model simulations, partial coupling or pacemaker experiments, as well as the development and use of dynamical metrics and exploitation of hierarchies of models

SORL1 Is Genetically Associated with Late-Onset Alzheimer’s Disease in Japanese, Koreans and Caucasians

To discover susceptibility genes of late-onset Alzheimer’s disease (LOAD), we conducted a 3-stage genome-wide association study (GWAS) using three populations: Japanese from the Japanese Genetic Consortium for Alzheimer Disease (JGSCAD), Koreans, and Caucasians from the Alzheimer Disease Genetic Consortium (ADGC). In Stage 1, we evaluated data for 5,877,918 genotyped and imputed SNPs in Japanese cases (n = 1,008) and controls (n = 1,016). Genome-wide significance was observed with 12 SNPs in the APOE region. Seven SNPs from other distinct regions with p-values ,261025 were genotyped in a second Japanese sample (885 cases, 985 controls), and evidence of association was confirmed for one SORL1 SNP (rs3781834, P=7.3361027 in the combined sample). Subsequent analysis combining results for several SORL1 SNPs in the Japanese, Korean (339 cases, 1,129 controls) and Caucasians (11,840 AD cases, 10,931 controls) revealed genome wide significance with rs11218343 (P=1.7761029) and rs3781834 (P=1.0461028). SNPs in previously established AD loci in Caucasians showed strong evidence of association in Japanese including rs3851179 near PICALM (P=1.7161025) and rs744373 near BIN1 (P = 1.3961024). The associated allele for each of these SNPs was the same as in Caucasians. These data demonstrate for the first time genome-wide significance of LOAD with SORL1 and confirm the role of other known loci for LOAD in Japanese. Our study highlights the importance of examining associations in multiple ethnic populations

Simulating the midlatitude atmospheric circulation: what might we gain from high-resolution modeling of air-sea interactions?

Purpose of Review. To provide a snapshot of the current research on the oceanic forcing of the atmospheric circulation in midlatitudes and a concise update on previous review papers. Recent findings. Atmospheric models used for seasonal and longer timescales predictions are starting to resolve motions so far only studied in conjunction with weather forecasts. These phenomena have horizontal scales of ~ 10–100 km which coincide with energetic scales in the ocean circulation. Evidence has been presented that, as a result of this matching of scale, oceanic forcing of the atmosphere was enhanced in models with 10–100 km grid size, especially at upper tropospheric levels. The robustness of these results and their underlying mechanisms are however unclear. Summary. Despite indications that higher resolution atmospheric models respond more strongly to sea surface temperature anomalies, their responses are still generally weaker than those estimated empirically from observations. Coarse atmospheric models (grid size greater than 100 km) will miss important signals arising from future changes in ocean circulation unless new parameterizations are developed

The 2020 UV emitter roadmap

Solid state UV emitters have many advantages over conventional UV sources. The (Al,In,Ga)N material system is best suited to produce LEDs and laser diodes from 400 nm down to 210 nm—due to its large and tuneable direct band gap, n- and p-doping capability up to the largest bandgap material AlN and a growth and fabrication technology compatible with the current visible InGaN-based LED production. However AlGaN based UV-emitters still suffer from numerous challenges compared to their visible counterparts that become most obvious by consideration of their light output power, operation voltage and long term stability. Most of these challenges are related to the large bandgap of the materials. However, the development since the first realization of UV electroluminescence in the 1970s shows that an improvement in understanding and technology allows the performance of UV emitters to be pushed far beyond the current state. One example is the very recent realization of edge emitting laser diodes emitting in the UVC at 271.8 nm and in the UVB spectral range at 298 nm. This roadmap summarizes the current state of the art for the most important aspects of UV emitters, their challenges and provides an outlook for future developments

The influence of the Gulf Stream on wintertime European blocking

Wintertime blocking is responsible for extended periods of anomalously cold and dry weather over Europe. In this study, the influence of the Gulf Stream sea surface temperature (SST) front on wintertime European blocking is investigated using a reanalysis dataset and a pair of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations. The AGCM is forced with realistic and smoothed Gulf Stream SST, and blocking frequency over Europe is found to depend crucially on the Gulf Stream SST front. In the absence of the sharp SST gradient European blocking is significantly reduced and occurs further downstream. The Gulf Stream is found to significantly influence the surface temperature anomalies during blocking periods and the occurrence of associated cold spells. In particular the cold spell peak, located in central Europe, disappears in the absence of the Gulf Stream SST front. The nature of the Gulf Stream influence on European blocking development is then investigated using composite analysis. The presence of the Gulf Stream SST front is important in capturing the observed quasi-stationary development of European blocking. The development is characterised by increased lower-tropospheric meridional eddy heat transport in the Gulf Stream region and increased eddy kinetic energy at upper-levels, which acts to reinforce the quasi-stationary jet. When the Gulf Stream SST is smoothed the storm track activity is weaker, the development is less consistent and European blocking occurs less frequently