“Till the muddle in my mind have cleared awa”: can we help shape policy using systems modelling?

This paper considers how some well-documented deficiencies of mental models make it difficult to create effective policies, and suggests that systems modelling can begin to address this issue. To illustrate the argument three short cases are presented. These relate to specific domains but demonstrate how systems modelling can illuminate different general phenomena: effects on labour costs (unintended consequences and feedback); fishery management (accumulation and non-linearity) and child protection (worldviews and sense-making). Six levers for increasing the use of systems modelling in the policy arena are then discussed. The paper closes by emphasising the opportunities for systems modellers in the Anthropocene Era

Growing pains: how risk perception and risk communication research can help to manage the challenges of global population growth

In 2011 the global human population reached seven billion and medium variant projections indicate that it will exceed nine billion before 2045. Theoretical and empirical perspectives suggest that this growth could lead to an increase in the likelihood of adverse events (e.g., food shortages, climate change, etc.) and/or the severity of adverse events (e.g., famines, natural disasters, etc.). Several scholars have posited that the size to which the global population grows and the extent to which this growth increases the likelihood of adverse outcomes will largely be shaped by individuals� decisions (in households, organizations, Governments, etc.). In light of the strong relationship between perceived risk and decision behaviors, it is surprising that there remains a dearth of empirical research that specifically examines the perceived risks of population growth and how these perceptions might influence related decisions. In an attempt to motivate this important strand of research, this paper examines the major risks that may be exacerbated by global population growth and draws upon empirical work concerning the perception and communication of risk to identify potential directions for future research. The paper also considers how individuals might perceive both the risks and benefits of population growth and be helped to better understand and address the related issues. The answers to these questions could help humanity better manage the emerging consequences of its continuing success in increasing infant survival and adult longevit

Modelling a Historic Oil-Tank Fire Allows an Estimation of the Sensitivity of the Infrared Receptors in Pyrophilous Melanophila Beetles

Pyrophilous jewel beetles of the genus Melanophila approach forest fires and there is considerable evidence that these beetles can detect fires from great distances of more than 60 km. Because Melanophila beetles are equipped with infrared receptors and are also attracted by hot surfaces it can be concluded that these infrared receptors are used for fire detection

Das dunkle Paradies

Als Mikrobiologin erforscht Dr. Julia Otte aus Weinheim Seltene Erden in der Tiefsee. In 4000 Metern unter Wasser will sie herausfinden, welche Auswirkungen der Manganknollen-Abbau hat und wie der Mensch dadurch das Ökosystem beeinflusst. Mitten auf dem Pazifik ist sie für drei Monate ein wichtiger Bestandteil der Wissenschaft

The Big Seaweed Search: Evaluating a citizen science project for a difficult to identify group of organisms

The Big Seaweed Search invites people to survey UK seashores for 14 conspicuous seaweeds. The science investigates: (i) impact of sea temperature rise; (ii) spread of non-native species; and (iii) impact of ocean acidification. Survey data submitted between June 2016 and May 2020 were analysed to evaluate and explore project directions in relation to citizen science project development. Of the 378 surveys submitted, 1,414 people participated, contributing 1,531 person hours. Surveys were undertaken around the UK, with the highest proportion (46.7%) in the south west and the lowest (3.7%) in the north east. After data verification, 1,007 (54%) records were accepted. Fucus serratus had the highest number of entries correctly identified (66%) and Undaria pinnatifida the lowest (5%), inferring that at least some seaweeds can be difficult to identify, although the overall misidentification rate was relatively low (c. 15%). Apart from Alaria esculenta, U. pinnatifida and Saccharina latissima, the large brown seaweeds were abundant on at least some shores. Non-natives Sargassum muticum and Asparagopsis armata, were band-forming but in low numbers. Coralline algae, whilst band-forming on some shores, were most commonly patchy or sparse in abundance. Revisits, i.e. repeat surveys, at the same site with an interval of at least 1 year, are relatively low, with 18 sites revisited once and three sites revisited twice. Currently, data are insufficient to determine whether any changes in abundance could be detected. This study highlights areas where project developments can enhance data quality and quantity, e.g. better identification resources, training programmes for dedicated volunteers, and an annual focus week of activities. The project framed around climate change impacts, aims to raise awareness of the ecological importance of, and threats faced by, this understudied habitat and introduce conservation concepts including the need to protect common species showing signs of decline

The Big Seaweed Search: Evaluating a citizen science project for a difficult to identify group of organisms

1. The Big Seaweed Search invites people to survey UK seashores for 14 conspicuous seaweeds. The science investigates: (i) impact of sea temperature rise; (ii) spread of non-native species; and (iii) impact of ocean acidification. Survey data submitted between June 2016 and May 2020 were analysed to evaluate and explore project directions in relation to citizen science project development. 2. Of the 378 surveys submitted, 1,414 people participated, contributing 1,531 person hours. Surveys were undertaken around the UK, with the highest proportion (46.7%) in the south west and the lowest (3.7%) in the north east. After data verification, 1,007 (54%) records were accepted. Fucus serratus had the highest number of entries correctly identified (66%) and Undaria pinnatifida the lowest (5%), inferring that at least some seaweeds can be difficult to identify, although the overall misidentification rate was relatively low (c. 15%). 3. Apart from Alaria esculenta, U. pinnatifida and Saccharina latissima, the large brown seaweeds were abundant on at least some shores. Non-natives Sargassum muticum and Asparagopsis armata, were band-forming but in low numbers. Coralline algae, whilst band-forming on some shores, were most commonly patchy or sparse in abundance. Revisits, i.e. repeat surveys, at the same site with an interval of at least 1 year, are relatively low, with 18 sites revisited once and three sites revisited twice. 4. Currently, data are insufficient to determine whether any changes in abundance could be detected. 5. This study highlights areas where project developments can enhance data quality and quantity, e.g. better identification resources, training programmes for dedicated volunteers, and an annual focus week of activities. The project framed around climate change impacts, aims to raise awareness of the ecological importance of, and threats faced by, this understudied habitat and introduce conservation concepts including the need to protect common species showing signs of decline.Copyright © 2022, John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This document is the author’s accepted version of the journal article. You are advised to consult the published version if you wish to cite from it