Social Evils - From Unemployment to Idleness to Prejudice. Some Suggestions for Mapping the Modern Equivalents of These Old Evils onto New Injustices

In the midst of World War II the economist William Beveridge christened five social evils, all to be eradicated in Britain: ignorance, want, idleness, disease and squalor. Although Britain took its lead from developments elsewhere, to an extent that would have been hard to imagine in the 1930s, the very worst manifestations of each of these five evils had been overcome by the 1970s. However, from then onwards each evil transformed its appearance. In this paper I briefly argue that the new form of the five had features respectively of revised elitism, exclusion, prejudice, despair and greed.Ignorance, Want, Idleness, Disease, Squalor, Elitism, Exclusion, Prejudice, Despair and Greed

Visualizing Europe's demographic scars with coplots and contour plots

We present two enhancements to existing methods for visualizing vital statistics data. Data from the Human Mortality Database were used and vital statistics from England and Wales are used for illustration. The simpler of these methods involves coplotting mean age of death with its variance, and the more complex of these methods is to present data as a contour plot. The coplot method shows the effect of the 20th century’s epidemiological transitions. The contour plot method allows more complex and subtle age, period and cohort effects to be seen.<p></p> The contour plot shows the effects of broad improvements in public health over the 20th century, including vast reductions in rates of childhood mortality, reduced baseline mortality risks during adulthood and the postponement of higher mortality risks to older ages. They also show the effects of the two world wars and the 1918 influenza pandemic on men of fighting age, women and children. The contour plots also show a cohort effect for people born around 1918, suggesting a possible epigenetic effect of parental exposure to the pandemic which shortened the cohort’s lifespan and which has so far received little attention.<p></p> Although this article focuses on data from England and Wales, the associated online appendices contain equivalent visualizations for almost 50 series of data available on the Human Mortality Database. We expect that further analyses of these visualizations will reveal further insights into global public health.<p></p&gt

Visualising variation in mortality rates across the life course and by sex, USA and comparator states, 1933–2010

Background Previous research showed that younger adult males in the USA have, since the 1950s, died at a faster rate than females of the same age. In this paper, we quantify this difference, and explore possible explanations for the differences at different ages and in different years. Methods Using data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD), the number of additional male deaths per 10 000 female deaths was calculated for each year from 1933 to 2010, and for each year of age from 0 to 60 years, for the USA, and a number of other countries for comparison. The data were explored visually using shaded contour plots. Results Gender differences in excess mortality have increased. Coming of age (between the ages of 15 and 25 years of age) is especially perilous for men relative to women now compared with the past in the USA; the visualisations highlight this change as important. Conclusions Sex differences in mortality risks at various ages are not static. While women may today have an advantage when it comes to life expectancy, in the USA, this has greatly increased since the 1930s. Just as young adulthood for women has been made safer through safer antenatal and childbirth practices, changes in public policy can make the social environment safer for men

Climate resilience in the United Kingdom wine production sector: CREWS-UK

As cool climate viticulture rapidly expands, the England and Wales wine sector is winning international acclaim, particularly for its sparkling wines, and is attracting significant investment. Supported by warming climate trends during the growing season, wine producers are establishing new vineyards planted predominantly with Pinot Noir and Chardonnay. Grape-friendly weather conditions in 2018 led to a record harvest and may be a sign of good things to come. Long term (100-years) Growing Season Average Temperatures (GSTs) in south-east and south-central England have noticeably increased with 6 of the top 10 warmest growing seasons (April–October), over the last 100 years, occurring since 2005. However, weather and growing season conditions fluctuate markedly from year to year, meaning that yields and grape quality continue to vary significantly. Weather extremes are anticipated to become more frequent under future climate change, further threatening the stability of production. Current uncertainty over future climatic conditions during the growing season and their potential effects on viticulture in the UK exposes both existing producers and potential investors to unquantified risks and opportunities. The CREWS-UK climate resilience research project is generating actionable information on how climate change may affect the wine production sector, to support better decision-making and investment

Analysis of trends in premature mortality by Labour voting in the 1997 general election

Mortality relates to voting patterns within areas: mortality is higher the greater the proportion of the electorate who vote Labour or abstain and the converse is the case with regard to the percentage of the electorate who vote Conservative. This reflects the socioeconomic characteristics of individuals who vote for these parties, with Labour being identified with the working class and the Conservatives with the middle class. In the 1997 election, Labour was returned to office after 18 years in opposition. The government has released targets for reducing health inequalities and made it clear that such a reduction is a principal policy aim. These targets may be difficult to meet for two reasons. Firstly, factors influencing inequalities in adult health act from an early age onwards and may not respond rapidly to social change3; secondly, there has as yet been no reduction in social inequality (as indexed by income inequality) under the Labour government.4 Here we use premature mortality as an indicator of which population groups have fared best under the present government

Inequalities in premature mortality in Britain: observational study from 1921 to 2007

Objective To report on the extent of inequality in premature mortality as measured between geographical areas in Britain. Design Observational study of routinely collected mortality data and public records. Population subdivided by age, sex, and geographical area (parliamentary constituencies from 1991 to 2007, pre-1974 local authorities over a longer time span). Setting Great Britain. Participants Entire population aged under 75 from 1990 to 2007, and entire population aged under 65 in the periods 1921-39, 1950-3, 1959-63, 1969-73, and 1981-2007. Main outcome measure Relative index of inequality (RII) and ratios of inequality in age-sex standardised mortality ratios under ages 75 and 65. The relative index of inequality is the relative rate of mortality for the hypothetically worst-off compared with the hypothetically best-off person in the population, assuming a linear association between socioeconomic position and risk of mortality. The ratio of inequality is the ratio of the standardised mortality ratio of the most deprived 10% to the least deprived 10%. Results When measured by the relative index of inequality, geographical inequalities in age-sex standardised rates of mortality below age 75 have increased every two years from 1990-1 to 2006-7 without exception. Over this period the relative index of inequality increased from 1.61 (95% confidence interval 1.52 to 1.69) in 1990-1 to 2.14 (2.02 to 2.27) in 2006-7. Simple ratios indicated a brief period around 2001 when a small reduction in inequality was recorded, but this was quickly reversed and inequalities up to the age of 75 have now reached the highest levels reported since at least 1990. Similarly, inequalities in mortality ratios under the age of 65 improved slightly in the early years of this century but the latest figures surpass the most extreme previously reported. Comparison of crudely age-sex standardised rates for those below age 65 from historical records showed that geographical inequalities in mortality are higher in the most recent decade than in any similar time period for which records are available since at least 1921. Conclusions Inequalities in premature mortality between areas of Britain continued to rise steadily during the first decade of the 21st century. The last time in the long economic record that inequalities were almost as high was in the lead up to the economic crash of 1929 and the economic depression of the 1930s. The economic crash of 2008 might precede even greater inequalities in mortality between areas in Britain

The impact of the graduated driver licence scheme on road traffic accident youth mortality in New Zealand

This paper examines the impact of the introduction of New Zealand’s Graduated Driving Licence System (GDLS) on patterns of road traffic accident mortality amongst the young driving population from 1980 to 2001. Results show that the mortality rate has declined, but that rates in New Zealand are three times greater than in England and Wales and twice those of Scotland. When the data is adjusted to take account of differences in the minimum driving age, rates remain consistently higher in New Zealand and the proportional reduction in road traffic accident youth mortality is not significantly better than that experienced in Great Britain

The water cycle in a changing climate

Millions of people across the globe are already affected by natural variability in the water cycle. A multidisciplinary team of experts from the University of East Anglia and the University of Nottingham, led by Timothy Osborn, Professor of Climate Science at the world-renowned Climatic Research Unit, set out the empirical evidence - and argue the need for implementation of measured adaptation mechanisms that take into account uncertainties in the projection of future precipitation patterns