Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Conditional Relative Risk in a Semi-parametric Regression Model

The conditional relative risk is an important measure in medical and epidemiological studies when the outcome of interest is binary (i.e. disease vs. no disease). When the outcome is common, estimation of conditional relative risk and related parameters can be problematic, especially when the exposure or covariates are continuous. We propose a new estimation procedure based on targeted maximum likelihood methodology that targets the parameters relating to the conditional relative risk for common outcomes under a log-linear, or multiplicative, semi-parametric model. In this paper, we present three possible targeted maximum likelihood estimators for relative risk parameters implied by such a model: log-binomial based, Poisson-based, and a general semi-parametric approach. We present the properties and trade-offs of each of these estimators, focusing in particular on the Poisson-based estimator, which is most practical for implementation. We show that the resulting estimator is double robust and asymptotically linear, and inference can be obtained using the corresponding influence curve. The robustness of our estimator is compared to alternative methods (e.g. log-linear, Poisson regression) through simulation under model misspecification and increasing violations of the positivity assumption. The estimation procedure is then applied to a study of HIV genetic susceptibility scores, which aims to determine the effects of different genetic susceptibility scores on viral response. Effect modification by other covariates in the model is also explored

The Relative Performance of Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimators

There is an active debate in the literature on censored data about the relative performance of model based maximum likelihood estimators, IPCW-estimators, and a variety of double robust semiparametric efficient estimators. Kang and Schafer (2007) demonstrate the fragility of double robust and IPCW-estimators in a simulation study with positivity violations. They focus on a simple missing data problem with covariates where one desires to estimate the mean of an outcome that is subject to missingness. Responses by Robins et al. (2007), Tsiatis and Davidian (2007), Tan (2007a) and Ridgeway and McCaffrey (2007) further explore the challenges faced by double robust estimators and offer suggestions for improving their stability. In this article, we join the debate by presenting targeted maximum likelihood estimators (TMLEs). We demonstrate that TMLEs that guarantee that the parametric submodel employed by the TMLE-procedure respects the global bounds on the continuous outcomes, are especially suitable for dealing with positivity violations because in addition to being double robust and semiparametric efficient, they are substitution estimators. We demonstrate the practical performance of TMLEs relative to other estimators in the simulations designed by Kang and Schafer (2007) and in modified simulations with even greater estimation challenges

Tissue-specific calibration of extracellular matrix material properties by transforming growth factor-beta and Runx2 in bone is required for hearing

Publisher version: http://www.nature.com/embor/journal/v11/n10/full/embor2010135.htmlDA - 20100917 IS - 1469-3178 (Electronic) IS - 1469-221X (Linking) LA - ENG PT - JOURNAL ARTICLEDA - 20100917 IS - 1469-3178 (Electronic) IS - 1469-221X (Linking) LA - ENG PT - JOURNAL ARTICLEDA - 20100917 IS - 1469-3178 (Electronic) IS - 1469-221X (Linking) LA - ENG PT - JOURNAL ARTICLEPhysical cues, such as extracellular matrix stiffness, direct cell differentiation and support tissue-specific function. Perturbation of these cues underlies diverse pathologies, including osteoarthritis, cardiovascular disease and cancer. However, the molecular mechanisms that establish tissue-specific material properties and link them to healthy tissue function are unknown. We show that Runx2, a key lineage-specific transcription factor, regulates the material properties of bone matrix through the same transforming growth factor-beta (TGFbeta)-responsive pathway that controls osteoblast differentiation. Deregulated TGFbeta or Runx2 function compromises the distinctly hard cochlear bone matrix and causes hearing loss, as seen in human cleidocranial dysplasia. In Runx2(+/-) mice, inhibition of TGFbeta signalling rescues both the material properties of the defective matrix, and hearing. This study elucidates the unknown cause of hearing loss in cleidocranial dysplasia, and demonstrates that a molecular pathway controlling cell differentiation also defines material properties of extracellular matrix. Furthermore, our results suggest that the careful regulation of these properties is essential for healthy tissue functio

Global Gene Expression Profiling of a Population Exposed to a Range of Benzene Levels

BackgroundBenzene, an established cause of acute myeloid leukemia (AML), may also cause one or more lymphoid malignancies in humans. Previously, we identified genes and pathways associated with exposure to high (> 10 ppm) levels of benzene through transcriptomic analyses of blood cells from a small number of occupationally exposed workers.ObjectivesThe goals of this study were to identify potential biomarkers of benzene exposure and/or early effects and to elucidate mechanisms relevant to risk of hematotoxicity, leukemia, and lymphoid malignancy in occupationally exposed individuals, many of whom were exposed to benzene levels < 1 ppm, the current U.S. occupational standard.MethodsWe analyzed global gene expression in the peripheral blood mononuclear cells of 125 workers exposed to benzene levels ranging from < 1 ppm to > 10 ppm. Study design and analysis with a mixed-effects model minimized potential confounding and experimental variability.ResultsWe observed highly significant widespread perturbation of gene expression at all exposure levels. The AML pathway was among the pathways most significantly associated with benzene exposure. Immune response pathways were associated with most exposure levels, potentially providing biological plausibility for an association between lymphoma and benzene exposure. We identified a 16-gene expression signature associated with all levels of benzene exposure.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that chronic benzene exposure, even at levels below the current U.S. occupational standard, perturbs many genes, biological processes, and pathways. These findings expand our understanding of the mechanisms by which benzene may induce hematotoxicity, leukemia, and lymphoma and reveal relevant potential biomarkers associated with a range of exposures

North Atlantic current and European slope current circulation in the Rockall Trough observed using moorings and gliders

The Rockall Trough (RT) accommodates the warmest and saltiest branch of the North Atlantic Current, which delivers water from the Gulf Stream into the marine environment around western Europe. In addition, the European Slope Current (ESC) carries warm water northward along the eastern boundary of the RT, and exchange between the ESC and the continental shelf is a dominant factor in determining the oceanographic conditions around the British Isles. However, the picture of the mean circulation and variability in the RT is still emerging, with a continuous observational campaign still in its relative infancy. The ESC, in particular, is poorly constrained by ship-based, mooring, and satellite observations. In this paper, we examine the RT circulation and volume transport using a temporally extended and spatially expanded observing network. Six years of continuous mooring occupation reveal that a large-amplitude, basin-scale freshening event, previously detected south of Iceland around 2015, impacted the RT around 2017. Geostrophic transport was greatly reduced during this period, driven by a concurrent subsurface temperature increase at the western boundary. The circulation regained strength during the latter part of the record. We gathered 110 glider transects over 22 months which capture the ESC velocity field in unprecedented detail. The data are sufficient to characterize both the mean state and the emergent seasonal variability of the ESC, and reveal the year-round presence of a southward countercurrent at depth. Variability in the strength and structure of this previously unstudied feature modulates net northward transport in the eastern boundary current system

Planning Framework Options for The Massachusetts Ocean Plan (DRAFT)

The Massachusetts Ocean Partnership (MOP) Planning Frameworks Team, in consultation with the Massachusetts Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs (EEA), and based on collective experience and a review of ocean, coastal and resource management programs from the US and other countries, suggests that nine elements are essential components of the framework for the Massachusetts Ocean Plan and its implementation. While management plans and programs generally have these elements in common, there are a range of options for carrying out each program component. These options were presented to structure and inform the development of the Massachusetts Ocean Plan. For the most part, the range of options represents those that were considered to be appropriate under the Commonwealth’s existing legal and administrative structure and responsive to the requirements of the Massachusetts Ocean Act. However, the general concepts these options represent are likely to be transferable to other jurisdictions (especially in the United States) and can inform future ocean management and planning in Massachusetts. Additionally, options or their core elements can be combined to create additional alternatives within one of the nine planning components

The open innovation research landscape: established perspectives and emerging themes across different levels of analysis

This paper provides an overview of the main perspectives and themes emerging in research on open innovation (OI). The paper is the result of a collaborative process among several OI scholars – having a common basis in the recurrent Professional Development Workshop on ‘Researching Open Innovation’ at the Annual Meeting of the Academy of Management. In this paper, we present opportunities for future research on OI, organised at different levels of analysis. We discuss some of the contingencies at these different levels, and argue that future research needs to study OI – originally an organisational-level phenomenon – across multiple levels of analysis. While our integrative framework allows comparing, contrasting and integrating various perspectives at different levels of analysis, further theorising will be needed to advance OI research. On this basis, we propose some new research categories as well as questions for future research – particularly those that span across research domains that have so far developed in isolation

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration.

How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model. Within each outcome, prediction error was strongly associated with the family being predicted and weakly associated with the technique used to generate the prediction. Overall, these results suggest practical limits to the predictability of life outcomes in some settings and illustrate the value of mass collaborations in the social sciences