Long-Term Ozone Variability and Trends from Reanalyses: Can It Be Done?

Stratospheric ozone concentrations have begun to show early signs of recovery following the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments as well as in response to decreasing upper-stratospheric temperatures. Secular trends in stratospheric ozone are modulated by considerable interannual variability and systematic changes in transport patterns that are expected under increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, especially in the lower stratosphere. These factors necessitate the continued close monitoring of stratospheric ozone in upcoming decades, with a special focus on the lower stratosphere.As highly resolved data sets combining a plethora of observations with model simulations atmospheric reanalyses are, in principle, well suited for the task. All major reanalyses generate ozone output. However, significant spurious discontinuities that arise from step changes in the observing systems prevent a straightforward analysis of ozone trends and long-term variability. Building on our recent work, in this presentation we will demonstrate that trend detection is nonetheless possible using the ozone record from NASA's MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) reanalysis bias-corrected using a chemistry model simulation as a transfer function. Next, we will outline several strategies to reduce artificial discontinuities in the ozone record in future NASA reanalyses. This discussion will be illustrated by an example of joint assimilation of bias-corrected ozone profiles from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite (2004 to present) and the Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite Limb Profiler (OMPS-LP) sensors that are expected to operate on future NOAA platforms

Estimating Uncertainty in Long Term Total Ozone Records from Multiple Sources

Total ozone measurements derived from the TOMS and SBUV backscattered solar UV instrument series cover the period from late 1978 to the present. As the SBUV series of instruments comes to an end, we look to the 10 years of data from the AURA Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and two years of data from the Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite (OMPS) on board the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite to continue the record. When combining these records to construct a single long-term data set for analysis we must estimate the uncertainty in the record resulting from potential biases and drifts in the individual measurement records. In this study we present a Monte Carlo analysis used to estimate uncertainties in the Merged Ozone Dataset (MOD), constructed from the Version 8.6 SBUV2 series of instruments. We extend this analysis to incorporate OMI and OMPS total ozone data into the record and investigate the impact of multiple overlapping measurements on the estimated error. We also present an updated column ozone trend analysis and compare the size of statistical error (error from variability not explained by our linear regression model) to that from instrument uncertainty

Tropospheric ozone retrieval by a combination of TROPOMI/S5P measurements with BASCOE assimilated data

We present a new tropospheric ozone dataset based on TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI)/Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P) total ozone measurements combined with stratospheric ozone data from the Belgian Assimilation System for Chemical ObsErvations (BASCOE) constrained by assimilating ozone observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). The BASCOE stratospheric data are interpolated to the S5P observations and subtracted from the TROPOMI total ozone data. The difference is equal to the tropospheric ozone residual column from the surface up to the tropopause. The tropospheric ozone columns are retrieved at the full spatial resolution of the TROPOMI sensor (5.5×3.5 km2) with daily global coverage. Compared to the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications 2 (OMPS-MERRA-2) data, a global mean positive bias of 3.3 DU is found for the analysed period April 2018 to June 2020. A small negative bias of about −0.91 DU is observed in the tropics relative to the operational TROPOMI tropical tropospheric data based on the convective cloud differential (CCD) algorithm throughout the same period. The new tropospheric ozone data (S5P-BASCOE) are compared to a set of globally distributed ozonesonde data integrated up to the tropopause level. We found 2254 comparisons with cloud-free TROPOMI observations within 25 km of the stations. In the global mean, S5P-BASCOE deviates by 2.6 DU from the integrated ozonesondes. Depending on the latitude the S5P-BASCOE deviate from the sondes and between −4.8 and 7.9 DU, indicating a good agreement. However, some exceptional larger positive deviations up to 12 DU are found, especially in the northern polar regions (north of 70∘). The monthly mean tropospheric column and time series for selected areas showed the expected spatial and temporal pattern, such as the wave one structure in the tropics or the seasonal cycle, including a summer maximum, in the mid-latitudes.</p

Evaluation of Version 3 Total and Tropospheric Ozone Columns From Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera on Deep Space Climate Observatory for Studying Regional Scale Ozone Variations

Discrete wavelength radiance measurements from the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) allows derivation of global synoptic maps of total and tropospheric ozone columns every hour during Northern Hemisphere (NH) Summer or 2 hours during Northern Hemisphere winter. In this study, we present version 3 retrieval of Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera ozone that covers the period from June 2015 to the present with improved geolocation, calibration, and algorithmic updates. The accuracy of total and tropospheric ozone measurements from EPIC have been evaluated using correlative satellite and ground-based total and tropospheric ozone measurements at time scales from daily averages to monthly means. The comparisons show good agreement with increased differences at high latitudes. The agreement improves if we only accept retrievals derived from the EPIC 317 nm triplet and limit solar zenith and satellite looking angles to 70°. With such filtering in place, the comparisons of EPIC total column ozone retrievals with correlative satellite and ground-based data show mean differences within ±5-7 Dobson Units (or 1.5–2.5%). The biases with other satellite instruments tend to be mostly negative in the Southern Hemisphere while there are no clear latitudinal patterns in ground-based comparisons. Evaluation of the EPIC ozone time series at different ground-based stations with the correlative ground-based and satellite instruments and ozonesondes demonstrated good consistency in capturing ozone variations at daily, weekly and monthly scales with a persistently high correlation (r2 &gt; 0.9) for total and tropospheric columns. We examined EPIC tropospheric ozone columns by comparing with ozonesondes at 12 stations and found that differences in tropospheric column ozone are within ±2.5 DU (or ∼±10%) after removing a constant 3 DU offset at all stations between EPIC and sondes. The analysis of the time series of zonally averaged EPIC tropospheric ozone revealed a statistically significant drop of ∼2–4 DU (∼5–10%) over the entire NH in spring and summer of 2020. This drop in tropospheric ozone is partially related to the unprecedented Arctic stratospheric ozone losses in winter-spring 2019/2020 and reductions in ozone precursor pollutants due to the COVID-19 pandemic

An update on ozone profile trends for the period 2000 to 2016

Ozone profile trends over the period 2000 to 2016 from several merged satellite ozone data sets and from ground-based data measured by four techniques at stations of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change indicate significant ozone increases in the upper stratosphere, between 35 and 48 km altitude (5 and 1 hPa). Near 2 hPa (42 km), ozone has been increasing by about 1.5 % per decade in the tropics (20° S to 20° N), and by 2 to 2.5 % per decade in the 35 to 60° latitude bands of both hemispheres. At levels below 35 km (5 hPa), 2000 to 2016 ozone trends are smaller and not statistically significant. The observed trend profiles are consistent with expectations from chemistry climate model simulations. This study confirms positive trends of upper stratospheric ozone already reported, e.g., in the WMO/UNEP Ozone Assessment 2014 or by Harris et al. (2015). Compared to those studies, three to four additional years of observations, updated and improved data sets with reduced drift, and the fact that nearly all individual data sets indicate ozone increase in the upper stratosphere, all give enhanced confidence. Uncertainties have been reduced, for example for the trend near 2 hPa in the 35 to 60° latitude bands from about ±5 % (2σ) in Harris et al. (2015) to less than ±2 % (2σ). Nevertheless, a thorough analysis of possible drifts and differences between various data sources is still required, as is a detailed attribution of the observed increases to declining ozone-depleting substances and to stratospheric cooling. Ongoing quality observations from multiple independent platforms are key for verifying that recovery of the ozone layer continues as expected

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)

Validations of satellite ozone profiles in austral spring using ozonesonde measurements in the Jang Bogo station, Antarctica

Using ozonesonde measurements from 2015 to 2018 at the Jang Bogo station located in the southeastern Antarctic region, we evaluate ozone profiles retrieved from the three satellite measurements that are widely used: Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), and Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite (OMPS) data. For the fair validation, ozonesonde profiles are smoothed using the weighting function of each satellite retrieval algorithm (i.e., convolution process). Compared with limb-viewing MLS and OMPS ozone profiles, the OMI ozone profiles are relatively less qualified: coarser vertical resolution and larger inter-annual variation. Nevertheless, our validation reveals that the quality of all three satellite ozone profiles looks comparable; In general, difference from ozonesonde profile is similar to 1 ppm absolutely, and -20 to 30% relatively at maximum. This quantitative range well corresponds to previous work, meaning that our new validation confirms the reliability of satellite ozone profiles in the southeastern Antarctic region where the measurement data for the validation were not enough. Another interesting feature is the role of a priori ozone profile; Nadir-viewing OMI satellite can have qualified ozone profiles by a proper assumption of a priori ozone profile. Since the performance of limb-viewing ozone profiles is better, however, the careful usage of nadir-viewing ozone profile is still required. We think that the simultaneous usage of multiple satellite ozone profiles can contribute to better understanding of Antarctic ozone characteristics

Validation of Ozone Profile Retrievals Derived from the OMPS LP Version 2.5 Algorithm Against Correlative Satellite Measurements

The Limb Profiler (LP) is a part of the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite launched on board of the Suomi NPP satellite in October 2011. The LP measures solar radiation scattered from the atmospheric limb in ultraviolet and visible spectral ranges between the surface and 80 km. These measurements of scattered solar radiances allow for the retrieval of ozone profiles from cloud tops up to 55 km. The LP started operational observations in April 2012. In this study we evaluate more than 5.5 years of ozone profile measurements from the OMPS LP processed with the new NASA GSFC version 2.5 retrieval algorithm. We provide a brief description of the key changes that had been implemented in this new algorithm, including a pointing correction, new cloud height detection, explicit aerosol correction and a reduction of the number of wavelengths used in the retrievals. The OMPS LP ozone retrievals have been compared with independent satellite profile measurements obtained from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) and Odin Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imaging System (OSIRIS). We document observed biases and seasonal differences and evaluate the stability of the version 2.5 ozone record over 5.5 years. Our analysis indicates that the mean differences between LP and correlative measurements are well within required +/- 10% between 18 and 42 km. In the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere (>43 km) LP tends to have a negative bias. We find larger biases in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere, but LP ozone retrievals have significantly improved in version 2.5 compared to version 2 due to the implemented aerosol correction. In the northern high latitudes we observe larger biases between 20 and 32 km due to the remaining thermal sensitivity issue. Our analysis shows that LP ozone retrievals agree well with the correlative satellite observations in characterizing vertical, spatial and temporal ozone distribution associated with natural processes, like the seasonal cycle and quasi-biennial oscillations. We found a small positive drift approx. 0.5%/yr in the LP ozone record against MLS and OSIRIS that is more pronounced at altitudes above 35 km. This pattern in the relative drift is consistent with a possible 100m drift in the LP sensor pointing detected by one of our altitude-resolving methods