Assessing the uncertainties of model estimates of primary productivity in the tropical Pacific Ocean

Author Posting. © Elsevier B.V., 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Marine Systems 76 (2009): 113-133, doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.05.010.Depth-integrated primary productivity (PP) estimates obtained from satellite ocean color based models (SatPPMs) and those generated from biogeochemical ocean general circulation models (BOGCMs) represent a key resource for biogeochemical and ecological studies at global as well as regional scales. Calibration and validation of these PP models are not straightforward, however, and comparative studies show large differences between model estimates. The goal of this paper is to compare PP estimates obtained from 30 different models (21 SatPPMs and 9 BOGCMs) to a tropical Pacific PP database consisting of ~1000 14C measurements spanning more than a decade (1983- 1996). Primary findings include: skill varied significantly between models, but performance was not a function of model complexity or type (i.e. SatPPM vs. BOGCM); nearly all models underestimated the observed variance of PP, specifically yielding too few low PP (< 0.2 gC m-2d-2) values; more than half of the total root-mean-squared model-data differences associated with the satellite-based PP models might be accounted for by uncertainties in the input variables and/or the PP data; and the tropical Pacific database captures a broad scale shift from low biomass-normalized productivity in the 1980s to higher biomass-normalized productivity in the 1990s, which was not successfully captured by any of the models. This latter result suggests that interdecadal and global changes will be a significant challenge for both SatPPMs and BOGCMs. Finally, average root-mean-squared differences between in situ PP data on the equator at 140°W and PP estimates from the satellite-based productivity models were 58% lower than analogous values computed in a previous PP model comparison six years ago. The success of these types of comparison exercises is illustrated by the continual modification and improvement of the participating models and the resulting increase in model skill.This research was supported by a grant from the National Aeronautics and Space Agency Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry program (NNG06GA03G), as well as by numerous other grants to the various participating investigator

Model of the in vivo spectral absorption of algal pigments. Part 1. Mathematical apparatus

Existing statistical models of in vivo light absorption by phytoplankton (Woźniak & Ostrowska 1990, Bricaud et al. 1995, 1998) describe the dependence of the phytoplankton specific spectral absorption coefficient a∗ pl(λ) on the chlorophyll a concentration Ca in seawater. However, the models do not take into account the variability in this relationship due to phytoplankton acclimation. The observed variability in the light absorption coefficient and its components due to various pigments with depth and geographical position at sea, requires further accurate modelling in order to improve satellite remote sensing algorithms and interpretation of ocean colour maps. The aim of this paper is to formulate an improved model of the phytoplankton spectral absorption capacity which takes account of the pigment composition and absorption changes resulting from photo- and chromatic acclimation processes, and the pigment package effect. It is a synthesis of earlier models and the following statistical generalisations: (1) statistical relationships between various pigment group concentrations and light field properties in the sea (described by Majchrowski & Ostrowska 2000, this volume); (2) a model of light absorption by phytoplankton capable of determining the mathematical relationships between the spectral absorption coefficients of the various photosynthetic and photoprotecting pigment groups, and their concentrations in seawater (Woźniak et al. 1999); (3) bio-optical models of light propagation in oceanic Case 1 Waters and Baltic Case 2 Waters (Woźniak et al. 1992a, b, 1995a,b). The generalised model described in this paper permits the total phytoplankton light absorption coefficient in vivo as well as its components related to the various photosynthetic and photoprotecting pigments to be determined using only the surface irradiance PAR(0+) surface chlorophyll concentration Ca(0) and depth z in the sea as input data

Model of the in vivo spectral absorption of algal pigments. Part 2. Practical applications of the model

The article describes applications and accuracy analyses of a statistical model of light absorption by phytoplankton that accounts for the influence of photo- and chromatic acclimation on its absorption properties. Part 1 of this work (seeWoźniak et al. 2000, this volume) describes the mathematical apparatus of the model. Earlier models by Woźniak & Ostrowska (1990) and by Bricaud et al. (1995, 1998) are analysed for comparison. Empirical verification of these three models shows that the new model provides a much better approximation of phytoplankton absorption properties than do the earlier models. The statistical errors in estimating the mean absorption coefficient apl, for example, are σ+ = 36% for the new model, whereas for the earlier models the figures are σ+ = 43% (Bricaud et al. 1995, 1998) and σ+ = 59% (Woźniak & Ostrowska 1990). Example applications are given of the new model illustrating the variability in phytoplankton absorption properties with depth and trophicity of the sea