Weather, climate and the nature of predictability

The prediction and simulation of future weather and climate is a key ingredient in good weather risk management. This chapter briefly reviews the nature and underlying sources of predictability on timescales from hours-ahead to centuries-ahead. The traditional distinction between ‘weather’ and ‘climate’ predictions is described, and the role of recent scientific developments in driving a convergence of these two classic problems is highlighted. The chapter concludes by outlining and comparing the two main strategies used for creating weather and climate predictions, and discussing the challenges of using predictions in quantitative applications

The cost of promiscuity: sexual transmission of Nosema microsporidian parasites in polyandrous honey bees

Multiple mating (and insemination) by females with different males, polyandry, is widespread across animals, due to material and/or genetic benefits for females. It reaches particularly high levels in some social insects, in which queens can produce significantly fitter colonies by being polyandrous. It is therefore a paradox that two thirds of eusocial hymenopteran insects appear to be exclusively monandrous, in spite of the fitness benefits that polyandry could provide. One possible cost of polyandry could be sexually transmitted parasites, but evidence for these in social insects is extremely limited. Here we show that two different species of Nosema microsporidian parasites can transmit sexually in the honey bee Apis mellifera. Honey bee males that are infected by the parasite have Nosema spores in their semen, and queens artificially inseminated with either Nosema spores or the semen of Nosema-infected males became infected by the parasite. The emergent and more virulent N. ceranae achieved much higher rates of infection following insemination than did N. apis. The results provide the first quantitative evidence of a sexually transmitted disease (STD) in social insects, indicating that STDs may represent a potential cost of polyandry in social insects

The curious role of sarcomeric proteins in control of diverse processes in cardiac myocytes

Introduction Relatively recent developments in our understanding of sarcomeric proteins have expanded their role from the home of molecular motors generating force and shortening to a cellular organelle fully integrated in the control of structural, electrical, mechanical, chemical, and metabolic homeostasis. Even so, in some cases these diverse functions of sarcomeric proteins appear to remain a curiosity, not fully appreciated in the analysis of major controllers of cardiac function. This attitude toward the function of sarcomeric proteins in cardiac myocytes is summarized in the following definition of “curiosity,” which seems particularly apropos: “meddlesome; thrusting oneself into and taking an active part in others’ affairs.” We focus in this Perspective on how sarcomeric proteins function in integration with membrane channels and transporters in control of cardiac dynamics, especially in adrenergic control of cardiac function. Understanding these mechanisms at the level of cardiac sarcomeres took on special significance with the identification of mutations in sarcomeric proteins as the most common cause of familial hypertrophic and dilated cardiomyopathies. These mutations commonly lead to structural, electrical, and metabolic remodeling and to sudden death. These disorders indicate a critical role of processes at the level of the sarcomeres in homeostatic control of cardiac energetics, dynamics, and structure. Yet, control of Ca2+ delivery to and removal from the myofilaments has dominated discussions of mechanisms regulating cardiac contractility. We first provide an alternative perspective in which rate processes at the level of the sarcomeres appear to be dominant during the rise and maintenance of systolic elastance and of isovolumic relaxation. A discussion of established adrenergic mechanisms and newly understood anti-adrenergic mechanisms controlling sarcomere response to Ca2+ follows and expands on this perspective

Elucidating the aetiology of human Campylobacter coli infections

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

DADA: data assimilation for the detection and attribution of weather and climate-related events

A new nudging method for data assimilation, delay‐coordinate nudging, is presented. Delay‐coordinate nudging makes explicit use of present and past observations in the formulation of the forcing driving the model evolution at each time step. Numerical experiments with a low‐order chaotic system show that the new method systematically outperforms standard nudging in different model and observational scenarios, also when using an unoptimized formulation of the delay‐nudging coefficients. A connection between the optimal delay and the dominant Lyapunov exponent of the dynamics is found based on heuristic arguments and is confirmed by the numerical results, providing a guideline for the practical implementation of the algorithm. Delay‐coordinate nudging preserves the easiness of implementation, the intuitive functioning and the reduced computational cost of the standard nudging, making it a potential alternative especially in the field of seasonal‐to‐decadal predictions with large Earth system models that limit the use of more sophisticated data assimilation procedures

Aesthetic response to color combinations: preference, harmony, and similarity

Previous studies of preference for and harmony of color combinations have produced confusing results. For example, some claim that harmony increases with hue similarity, whereas others claim that it decreases. We argue that such confusions are resolved by distinguishing among three types of judgments about color pairs: (1) preference for the pair as a whole, (2) harmony of the pair as a whole, and (3) preference for its figural color when viewed against its colored background. Empirical support for this distinction shows that pair preference and harmony both increase as hue similarity increases, but preference relies more strongly on component color preference and lightness contrast. Although pairs with highly contrastive hues are generally judged to be neither preferable nor harmonious, figural color preference ratings increase as hue contrast with the background increases. The present results thus refine and clarify some of the best-known and most contentious claims of color theorists

Hypoxia perturbs endothelium by re-organizing cellular actin architecture: Nitric oxide offers limited protection

Exposure to hypoxia causes structural changes in the endothelial cell (EC) monolayer that alter its permeability. There was a report earlier of impairment of nitric oxide (NO) production in endothelium. Intervention of NO in the altered cellular arrangements of actin cytoskeleton in endothelium for rectification of paracellular gaps in endothelium under hypoxia was observed. The present study demonstrates hypoxia inducing paracellular gaps in hypoxia exposed blood capillaries in chick embryo extra vascular model. Phalloidin staining confirmed significant polymerization of actin and unique cellular localization of the F-actin bands under hypoxia treatments. Addition of spermine NONOate (SPNO), a NO donor, or reoxygenation to endothelial monolayer attenuated hypoxia-mediated effects on endothelial permeability with partial recovery of endothelial integrity through actin remodeling. The present study indicates link of hypoxia-induced actin-associated cytoskeletal rearrangements and paracellular gaps in the endothelium with a low NO availability in the hypoxia milieu. The author concludes that NO confers protection against hypoxia-mediated cytoskeletal remodeling and endothelial leakiness