Point-occurrence self-similarity in crackling-noise systems and in other complex systems

It has been recently found that a number of systems displaying crackling noise also show a remarkable behavior regarding the temporal occurrence of successive events versus their size: a scaling law for the probability distributions of waiting times as a function of a minimum size is fulfilled, signaling the existence on those systems of self-similarity in time-size. This property is also present in some non-crackling systems. Here, the uncommon character of the scaling law is illustrated with simple marked renewal processes, built by definition with no correlations. Whereas processes with a finite mean waiting time do not fulfill a scaling law in general and tend towards a Poisson process in the limit of very high sizes, processes without a finite mean tend to another class of distributions, characterized by double power-law waiting-time densities. This is somehow reminiscent of the generalized central limit theorem. A model with short-range correlations is not able to escape from the attraction of those limit distributions. A discussion on open problems in the modeling of these properties is provided.Comment: Submitted to J. Stat. Mech. for the proceedings of UPON 2008 (Lyon), topic: crackling nois

Application of Pulsed Field Gel Electrophoresis to Determine γ-ray-induced Double-strand Breaks in Yeast Chromosomal Molecules

The frequency of DNA double-strand breaks (dsb) was determined in yeast cells exposed to γ-rays under anoxic conditions. Genomic DNA of treated cells was separated by pulsed field gel electrophoresis, and two different approaches for the evaluation of the gels were employed: (1) The DNA mass distribution profile obtained by electrophoresis was compared to computed profiles, and the number of DSB per unit length was then derived in terms of a fitting procedure; (2) hybridization of selected chromosomes was performed, and a comparison of the hybridization signals in treated and untreated samples was then used to derive the frequency of dsb

Temporal Dynamics of Preferential Flow to a Subsurface Drain

We conducted a sequential tracer leaching study on a 24.4 by 42.7 m field plot to investigate the temporal behavior of chemical movement to a 1.2-m deep field drain during irrigation and subsequent rainfall events over a 14-d period. The herbicides atrazine [6-chloroN-ethyl-N′-(1-methylethyl)-1,3,5-triazine-2,4-diamine], and alachlor [2-chloro-N-(2,6-diethylphenyl)-N-(methoxymethyl)acetamide] along with the conservative tracer Br were applied to a 1-m wide strip, offset 1.5 m laterally from a subsurface drain pipe, immediately before an 11.3-h long, 4.2-mm h−1 irrigation. Three additional conservative tracers, pentafluorobenzoate (PF), o-trifluoromethylbenzoate (TF), and difluorobenzoate (DF) were applied to the strip during the irrigation at 2-h intervals. Breakthrough of Br and the two herbicides occurred within the first 2-h of irrigation, indicating that a fraction of the solute transport was along preferential flow paths. Retardation and attenuation of the herbicides indicated that there was interaction between the chemicals and the soil lining the preferential pathways. The conservative tracers applied during the later stages of irrigation arrived at the subsurface drain much faster than tracers applied earlier. The final tracer, applied 6 h after the start of irrigation (DF), took only 15 min and 1 mm of irrigation water to travel to the subsurface drain. Model simulations using a two-dimensional, convective, and dispersive numerical model without an explicit preferential flow component failed to reproduce Br tracer concentrations in the drain effluent, confirming the importance of preferential flow. This study showed that preferential flow in this soil is not a uniform process during a leaching event

Effects of long memory in the order submission process on the properties of recurrence intervals of large price fluctuations

Understanding the statistical properties of recurrence intervals of extreme events is crucial to risk assessment and management of complex systems. The probability distributions and correlations of recurrence intervals for many systems have been extensively investigated. However, the impacts of microscopic rules of a complex system on the macroscopic properties of its recurrence intervals are less studied. In this Letter, we adopt an order-driven stock market model to address this issue for stock returns. We find that the distributions of the scaled recurrence intervals of simulated returns have a power law scaling with stretched exponential cutoff and the intervals possess multifractal nature, which are consistent with empirical results. We further investigate the effects of long memory in the directions (or signs) and relative prices of the order flow on the characteristic quantities of these properties. It is found that the long memory in the order directions (Hurst index $H_s$) has a negligible effect on the interval distributions and the multifractal nature. In contrast, the power-law exponent of the interval distribution increases linearly with respect to the Hurst index $H_x$ of the relative prices, and the singularity width of the multifractal nature fluctuates around a constant value when $H_x<0.7$ and then increases with $H_x$. No evident effects of $H_s$ and $H_x$ are found on the long memory of the recurrence intervals. Our results indicate that the nontrivial properties of the recurrence intervals of returns are mainly caused by traders' behaviors of persistently placing new orders around the best bid and ask prices.Comment: 6 EPL pages including 6 figure

Multifactor Analysis of Multiscaling in Volatility Return Intervals

We study the volatility time series of 1137 most traded stocks in the US stock markets for the two-year period 2001-02 and analyze their return intervals $\tau$, which are time intervals between volatilities above a given threshold $q$. We explore the probability density function of $\tau$, $P_q(\tau)$, assuming a stretched exponential function, $P_q(\tau) \sim e^{-\tau^\gamma}$. We find that the exponent $\gamma$ depends on the threshold in the range between $q=1$ and 6 standard deviations of the volatility. This finding supports the multiscaling nature of the return interval distribution. To better understand the multiscaling origin, we study how $\gamma$ depends on four essential factors, capitalization, risk, number of trades and return. We show that $\gamma$ depends on the capitalization, risk and return but almost does not depend on the number of trades. This suggests that $\gamma$ relates to the portfolio selection but not on the market activity. To further characterize the multiscaling of individual stocks, we fit the moments of $\tau$, $\mu_m \equiv )^m>^{1/m}$, in the range of $10 \le 100$ by a power-law, $\mu_m \sim ^\delta$. The exponent $\delta$ is found also to depend on the capitalization, risk and return but not on the number of trades, and its tendency is opposite to that of $\gamma$. Moreover, we show that $\delta$ decreases with $\gamma$ approximately by a linear relation. The return intervals demonstrate the temporal structure of volatilities and our findings suggest that their multiscaling features may be helpful for portfolio optimization.Comment: 16 pages, 6 figure

Playing with the Rules: Influences on the Development of Regulation in Sport

Sport today is a rule-governed practice: constitutive rules, both prescriptive and proscriptive, define required equipment and facilities as well as setting the formal rules of play; auxiliary rules specify and control eligibility: and regulatory rules place restraints on behaviour independent of the sport itself. This article offers a broad sweep examination of the historical process of rule development in sport including an assessment of the influence over time of gambling, fair play ideology, economic pressures, technological developments and legal intervention. En route a seven-stage scheme of constitutive rule development is postulated which it is hoped will set a research agenda for sports historians to test with case studies of particular sports

The end of mass homeownership? Changes in labour markets and housing tenure opportunities across Europe

With continued economic growth and expanding mortgage markets, until recently the pattern across advanced economies was of growing homeownership sectors. The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) has however, undercut this growth resulting in the contraction of homeownership access in many countries and the revival of private renting. This paper argues that these tenure changes are not solely a consequence of the GFC, and therefore, reversible once long-term growth returns. Rather, they are the consequences of more fundamental changes especially in labour markets. The very financialisation that fuelled the growth of homeownership has also led to a hollowing out of well-paid, secure jobs—exactly those that fit best with the taking of housing loans. We examine longer-term declines in labour market security across Europe from before the GFC, identifying an underlying correlation between deteriorated labour market conditions and homeownership access for young adults. While variations exist across European countries, there is evidence of common trends. We argue that the GFC both accelerated pre-existing labour insecurity dynamics and brought an end to offsetting such dynamics through the expansion of credit access with the likelihood of a return to an era of widespread homeownership growth starkly decreased

A multi-model intercomparison of halogenated very short-lived substances (TransCom-VSLS): Linking oceanic emissions and tropospheric transport for a reconciled estimate of the stratospheric source gas injection of bromine

Abstract. The first concerted multi-model intercomparison of halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLS) has been performed, within the framework of the ongoing Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project (TransCom). Eleven global models or model variants participated (nine chemical transport models and two chemistry–climate models) by simulating the major natural bromine VSLS, bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2), over a 20-year period (1993–2012). Except for three model simulations, all others were driven offline by (or nudged to) reanalysed meteorology. The overarching goal of TransCom-VSLS was to provide a reconciled model estimate of the stratospheric source gas injection (SGI) of bromine from these gases, to constrain the current measurement-derived range, and to investigate inter-model differences due to emissions and transport processes. Models ran with standardised idealised chemistry, to isolate differences due to transport, and we investigated the sensitivity of results to a range of VSLS emission inventories. Models were tested in their ability to reproduce the observed seasonal and spatial distribution of VSLS at the surface, using measurements from NOAA's long-term global monitoring network, and in the tropical troposphere, using recent aircraft measurements – including high-altitude observations from the NASA Global Hawk platform. The models generally capture the observed seasonal cycle of surface CHBr3 and CH2Br2 well, with a strong model–measurement correlation (r  ≥  0.7) at most sites. In a given model, the absolute model–measurement agreement at the surface is highly sensitive to the choice of emissions. Large inter-model differences are apparent when using the same emission inventory, highlighting the challenges faced in evaluating such inventories at the global scale. Across the ensemble, most consistency is found within the tropics where most of the models (8 out of 11) achieve best agreement to surface CHBr3 observations using the lowest of the three CHBr3 emission inventories tested (similarly, 8 out of 11 models for CH2Br2). In general, the models reproduce observations of CHBr3 and CH2Br2 obtained in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) at various locations throughout the Pacific well. Zonal variability in VSLS loading in the TTL is generally consistent among models, with CHBr3 (and to a lesser extent CH2Br2) most elevated over the tropical western Pacific during boreal winter. The models also indicate the Asian monsoon during boreal summer to be an important pathway for VSLS reaching the stratosphere, though the strength of this signal varies considerably among models. We derive an ensemble climatological mean estimate of the stratospheric bromine SGI from CHBr3 and CH2Br2 of 2.0 (1.2–2.5) ppt,  ∼  57 % larger than the best estimate from the most recent World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Ozone Assessment Report. We find no evidence for a long-term, transport-driven trend in the stratospheric SGI of bromine over the simulation period. The transport-driven interannual variability in the annual mean bromine SGI is of the order of ±5 %, with SGI exhibiting a strong positive correlation with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the eastern Pacific. Overall, our results do not show systematic differences between models specific to the choice of reanalysis meteorology, rather clear differences are seen related to differences in the implementation of transport processes in the models. </jats:p

MAPK-pathway inhibition mediates inflammatory reprogramming and sensitizes tumors to targeted activation of innate immunity sensor RIG-I

Kinase inhibitors suppress the growth of oncogene driven cancer but also enforce the selection of treatment resistant cells that are thought to promote tumor relapse in patients. Here, we report transcriptomic and functional genomics analyses of cells and tumors within their microenvironment across different genotypes that persist during kinase inhibitor treatment. We uncover a conserved, MAPK/IRF1-mediated inflammatory response in tumors that undergo stemness- and senescence-associated reprogramming. In these tumor cells, activation of the innate immunity sensor RIG-I via its agonist IVT4, triggers an interferon and a pro-apoptotic response that synergize with concomitant kinase inhibition. In humanized lung cancer xenografts and a syngeneic Egfr-driven lung cancer model these effects translate into reduction of exhausted CD8(+) T cells and robust tumor shrinkage. Overall, the mechanistic understanding of MAPK/IRF1-mediated intratumoral reprogramming may ultimately prolong the efficacy of targeted drugs in genetically defined cancer patients

Extent and Causes of Chesapeake Bay Warming

Coastal environments such as the Chesapeake Bay have long been impacted by eutrophication stressors resulting from human activities, and these impacts are now being compounded by global warming trends. However, there are few studies documenting long-term estuarine temperature change and the relative contributions of rivers, the atmosphere, and the ocean. In this study, Chesapeake Bay warming, since 1985, is quantified using a combination of cruise observations and model outputs, and the relative contributions to that warming are estimated via numerical sensitivity experiments with a watershed–estuarine modeling system. Throughout the Bay’s main stem, similar warming rates are found at the surface and bottom between the late 1980s and late 2010s (0.02 +/- 0.02C/year, mean +/- 1 standard error), with elevated summer rates (0.04 +/- 0.01C/year) and lower rates of winter warming (0.01 +/- 0.01C/year). Most (~85%) of this estuarine warming is driven by atmospheric effects. The secondary influence of ocean warming increases with proximity to the Bay mouth, where it accounts for more than half of summer warming in bottom waters. Sea level rise has slightly reduced summer warming, and the influence of riverine warming has been limited to the heads of tidal tributaries. Future rates of warming in Chesapeake Bay will depend not only on global atmospheric trends, but also on regional circulation patterns in mid-Atlantic waters, which are currently warming faster than the atmosphere. Supporting model data available at: https://doi.org/10.25773/c774-a36