Determining the response of African biota to climate change: using the past to model the future

Prediction of biotic responses to future climate change in tropical Africa tends to be based on two modelling approaches: bioclimatic species envelope models and dynamic vegetation models. Another complementary but underused approach is to examine biotic responses to similar climatic changes in the past as evidenced in fossil and historical records. This paper reviews these records and highlights the information that they provide in terms of understanding the local-and regional-scale responses of African vegetation to future climate change. A key point that emerges is that a move to warmer and wetter conditions in the past resulted in a large increase in biomass and a range distribution of woody plants up to 400-500 km north of its present location, the so-called greening of the Sahara. By contrast, a transition to warmer and drier conditions resulted in a reduction in woody vegetation in many regions and an increase in grass/savanna-dominated landscapes. The rapid rate of climate warming coming into the current interglacial resulted in a dramatic increase in community turnover, but there is little evidence for widespread extinctions. However, huge variation in biotic response in both space and time is apparent with, in some cases, totally different responses to the same climatic driver. This highlights the importance of local features such as soils, topography and also internal biotic factors in determining responses and resilience of the African biota to climate change, information that is difficult to obtain from modelling but is abundant in palaeoecological records

Decreasing intensity of open-ocean convection in the Greenland and Iceland seas

The air–sea transfer of heat and fresh water plays a critical role in the global climate system. This is particularly true for the Greenland and Iceland seas, where these fluxes drive ocean convection that contributes to Denmark Strait overflow water, the densest component of the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here we show that the wintertime retreat of sea ice in the region, combined with different rates of warming for the atmosphere and sea surface of the Greenland and Iceland seas, has resulted in statistically significant reductions of approximately 20% in the magnitude of the winter air–sea heat fluxes since 1979. We also show that modes of climate variability other than the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are required to fully characterize the regional air–sea interaction. Mixed-layer model simulations imply that further decreases in atmospheric forcing will exceed a threshold for the Greenland Sea whereby convection will become depth limited, reducing the ventilation of mid-depth waters in the Nordic seas. In the Iceland Sea, further reductions have the potential to decrease the supply of the densest overflow waters to the AMOC

Diminished temperature and vegetation seasonality over northern high latitudes

Global temperature is increasing, especially over northern lands (>50° N), owing to positive feedbacks1. As this increase is most pronounced in winter, temperature seasonality (ST)—conventionally defined as the difference between summer and winter temperatures—is diminishing over time2, a phenomenon that is analogous to its equatorward decline at an annual scale. The initiation, termination and performance of vegetation photosynthetic activity are tied to threshold temperatures3. Trends in the timing of these thresholds and cumulative temperatures above them may alter vegetation productivity, or modify vegetation seasonality (SV), over time. The relationship between ST and SV is critically examined here with newly improved ground and satellite data sets. The observed diminishment of ST and SV is equivalent to 4° and 7° (5° and 6°) latitudinal shift equatorward during the past 30 years in the Arctic (boreal) region. Analysis of simulations from 17 state-of-the-art climate models4 indicates an additional STdiminishment equivalent to a 20° equatorward shift could occur this century. How SV will change in response to such large projected ST declines and the impact this will have on ecosystem services5 are not well understood. Hence the need for continued monitoring6 of northern lands as their seasonal temperature profiles evolve to resemble thosefurther south.Lopullinen vertaisarvioitu käsikirjoitu

Cerebral amyloid‐β load is associated with neurodegeneration and gliosis: Mediation by p‐tau and interactions with risk factors early in the Alzheimer's continuum

Introduction: The association between cerebral amyloid‐β accumulation and downstream CSF biomarkers is not fully understood, particularly in asymptomatic stages. / Methods: In 318 cognitively unimpaired participants, we assessed the association between amyloid‐β PET (Centiloid), and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers of several pathophysiological pathways. Interactions by Alzheimer's disease risk factors (age, sex and APOE‐ε4), and the mediation effect of tau and neurodegeneration were also investigated. / Results: Centiloids were positively associated with CSF biomarkers of tau pathology (p‐tau), neurodegeneration (t‐tau, NfL), synaptic dysfunction (neurogranin) and neuroinflammation (YKL‐40, GFAP, sTREM2), presenting interactions with age (p‐tau, t‐tau, neurogranin) and sex (sTREM2, NfL). Most of these associations were mediated by p‐tau, except for NfL. The interaction between sex and amyloid‐β on sTREM2 and NfL was also tau‐independent. / Discussion: Early amyloid‐β accumulation has a tau‐independent effect on neurodegeneration and a tau‐dependent effect on neuroinflammation. Besides, sex has a modifier effect on these associations independent of tau

Differential effects of sleep on brain structure and metabolism at the preclinical stages of AD

INTRODUCTION: Poor sleep quality is associated with cognitive outcomes in Alzheimer's disease (AD). We analyzed the associations between self-reported sleep quality and brain structure and function in cognitively unimpaired (CU) individuals. METHODS: CU adults (N = 339) underwent structural magnetic resonance imaging, lumbar puncture, and the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) questionnaire. A subset (N = 295) performed [18F] fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography scans. Voxel-wise associations with gray matter volumes (GMv) and cerebral glucose metabolism (CMRGlu) were performed including interactions with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) AD biomarkers status. RESULTS: Poorer sleep quality was associated with lower GMv and CMRGlu in the orbitofrontal and cingulate cortices independently of AD pathology. Self-reported sleep quality interacted with altered core AD CSF biomarkers in brain areas known to be affected in preclinical AD stages. DISCUSSION: Poor sleep quality may impact brain structure and function independently from AD pathology. Alternatively, AD-related neurodegeneration in areas involved in sleep–wake regulation may induce or worsen sleep disturbances. Highlights Poor sleep impacts brain structure and function independent of Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathology. Poor sleep exacerbates brain changes observed in preclinical AD. Sleep is an appealing therapeutic strategy for preventing AD

Involving research participants in a pan-European research initiative: the EPAD participant panel experience

Abstract: Background: Including participants in patient and public involvement activities is increasingly acknowledged as a key pillar of successful research activity. Such activities can influence recruitment and retention, as well as researcher experience and contribute to decision making in research studies. However, there are few established methodologies of how to set up and manage participant involvement activities. Further, there is little discussion of how to do so when dealing with collaborative projects that run across countries and operate in multiple linguistic and regulatory contexts. Methods: In this paper we describe the set-up, running and experiences of the EPAD participant panel. The EPAD study was a pan-European cohort study with the aim to understand risks for developing Alzheimer’s disease and build a readiness cohort for Phase 2 clinical trials. Due to the longitudinal nature of this study, combined with the enrolment of healthy volunteers and those with mild cognitive impairments, the EPAD team highlighted participant involvement as crucial to the success of this project. The EPAD project employed a nested model, with local panels meeting in England, France, Scotland, Spain and The Netherlands, and feeding into a central study panel. The local panels were governed by terms of reference which were adaptable to local needs. Results: The impact of the panels has been widespread, and varies from feedback on documentation, to supporting with design of media materials and representation of the project at national and international meetings. Conclusions: The EPAD panels have contributed to the success of the project and the model established is easily transferable to other disease areas investigating healthy or at-risk populations

Exploring cognitive and biological correlates of sleep quality and their potential links with Alzheimer's disease (ALFASleep project): protocol for an observational study

The growing worldwide prevalence of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and the lack of effective treatments pose a dire medical challenge. Sleep disruption is also prevalent in the ageing population and is increasingly recognised as a risk factor and an early sign of AD. The ALFASleep project aims to characterise sleep with subjective and objective measurements in cognitively unimpaired middle/late middle-aged adults at increased risk of AD who are phenotyped with fluid and neuroimaging AD biomarkers. This will contribute to a better understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms linking sleep with AD, thereby paving the way for the development of non-invasive biomarkers and preventive strategies targeting sleep.We will invite 200 participants enrolled in the ALFA+ (for ALzheimer and FAmilies) prospective observational study to join the ALFASleep study. ALFA+ participants are cognitively unimpaired middle-aged/late middle-aged adults who are followed up every 3 years with a comprehensive set of evaluations including neuropsychological tests, blood and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) sampling, and MRI and positron emission tomography acquisition. ALFASleep participants will be additionally characterised with actigraphy and CSF-orexin-A measurements, and a subset (n=90) will undergo overnight polysomnography. We will test associations of sleep measurements and CSF-orexin-A with fluid biomarkers of AD and glial activation, neuroimaging outcomes and cognitive performance. In case we found any associations, we will test whether changes in AD and/or glial activation markers mediate the association between sleep and neuroimaging or cognitive outcomes and whether sleep mediates associations between CSF-orexin-A and AD biomarkers.The ALFASleep study protocol has been approved by the independent Ethics Committee Parc de Salut Mar, Barcelona (2018/8207/I). All participants have signed a written informed consent before their inclusion (approved by the same ethics committee). Study findings will be presented at national and international conferences and submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals.NCT04932473.© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ

Exploring cognitive and biological correlates of sleep quality and their potential links with Alzheimer's disease (ALFASleep project): protocol for an observational study

INTRODUCTION: The growing worldwide prevalence of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and the lack of effective treatments pose a dire medical challenge. Sleep disruption is also prevalent in the ageing population and is increasingly recognised as a risk factor and an early sign of AD. The ALFASleep project aims to characterise sleep with subjective and objective measurements in cognitively unimpaired middle/late middle-aged adults at increased risk of AD who are phenotyped with fluid and neuroimaging AD biomarkers. This will contribute to a better understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms linking sleep with AD, thereby paving the way for the development of non-invasive biomarkers and preventive strategies targeting sleep. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will invite 200 participants enrolled in the ALFA+ (for ALzheimer and FAmilies) prospective observational study to join the ALFASleep study. ALFA+ participants are cognitively unimpaired middle-aged/late middle-aged adults who are followed up every 3 years with a comprehensive set of evaluations including neuropsychological tests, blood and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) sampling, and MRI and positron emission tomography acquisition. ALFASleep participants will be additionally characterised with actigraphy and CSF-orexin-A measurements, and a subset (n=90) will undergo overnight polysomnography. We will test associations of sleep measurements and CSF-orexin-A with fluid biomarkers of AD and glial activation, neuroimaging outcomes and cognitive performance. In case we found any associations, we will test whether changes in AD and/or glial activation markers mediate the association between sleep and neuroimaging or cognitive outcomes and whether sleep mediates associations between CSF-orexin-A and AD biomarkers. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The ALFASleep study protocol has been approved by the independent Ethics Committee Parc de Salut Mar, Barcelona (2018/8207/I). All participants have signed a written informed consent before their inclusion (approved by the same ethics committee). Study findings will be presented at national and international conferences and submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04932473

Differences Between Plasma and Cerebrospinal Fluid Glial Fibrillary Acidic Protein Levels Across the Alzheimer Disease Continuum

Importance: Glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) is a marker of reactive astrogliosis that increases in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and blood of individuals with Alzheimer disease (AD). However, it is not known whether there are differences in blood GFAP levels across the entire AD continuum and whether its performance is similar to that of CSF GFAP. Objective: To evaluate plasma GFAP levels throughout the entire AD continuum, from preclinical AD to AD dementia, compared with CSF GFAP. Design, Setting, and Participants: This observational, cross-sectional study collected data from July 29, 2014, to January 31, 2020, from 3 centers. The Translational Biomarkers in Aging and Dementia (TRIAD) cohort (Montreal, Canada) included individuals in the entire AD continuum. Results were confirmed in the Alzheimer's and Families (ALFA+) study (Barcelona, Spain), which included individuals with preclinical AD, and the BioCogBank Paris Lariboisière cohort (Paris, France), which included individuals with symptomatic AD. Main Outcomes and Measures: Plasma and CSF GFAP levels measured with a Simoa assay were the main outcome. Other measurements included levels of CSF amyloid-β 42/40 (Aβ42/40), phosphorylated tau181 (p-tau181), neurofilament light (NfL), Chitinase-3-like protein 1 (YKL40), and soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 2 (sTREM2) and levels of plasma p-tau181 and NfL. Results of amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) were available in TRIAD and ALFA+, and results of tau PET were available in TRIAD. Results: A total of 300 TRIAD participants (177 women [59.0%]; mean [SD] age, 64.6 [17.6] years), 384 ALFA+ participants (234 women [60.9%]; mean [SD] age, 61.1 [4.7] years), and 187 BioCogBank Paris Lariboisière participants (116 women [62.0%]; mean [SD] age, 69.9 [9.2] years) were included. Plasma GFAP levels were significantly higher in individuals with preclinical AD in comparison with cognitively unimpaired (CU) Aβ-negative individuals (TRIAD: Aβ-negative mean [SD], 185.1 [93.5] pg/mL, Aβ-positive mean [SD], 285.0 [142.6] pg/mL; ALFA+: Aβ-negative mean [SD], 121.9 [42.4] pg/mL, Aβ-positive mean [SD], 169.9 [78.5] pg/mL). Plasma GFAP levels were also higher among individuals in symptomatic stages of the AD continuum (TRIAD: CU Aβ-positive mean [SD], 285.0 [142.6] pg/mL, mild cognitive impairment [MCI] Aβ-positive mean [SD], 332.5 [153.6] pg/mL; AD mean [SD], 388.1 [152.8] pg/mL vs CU Aβ-negative mean [SD], 185.1 [93.5] pg/mL; Paris: MCI Aβ-positive, mean [SD], 368.6 [158.5] pg/mL; AD dementia, mean [SD], 376.4 [179.6] pg/mL vs CU Aβ-negative mean [SD], 161.2 [67.1] pg/mL). Plasma GFAP magnitude changes were consistently higher than those of CSF GFAP. Plasma GFAP more accurately discriminated Aβ-positive from Aβ-negative individuals than CSF GFAP (area under the curve for plasma GFAP, 0.69-0.86; area under the curve for CSF GFAP, 0.59-0.76). Moreover, plasma GFAP levels were positively associated with tau pathology only among individuals with concomitant Aβ pathology. Conclusions and Relevance: This study suggests that plasma GFAP is a sensitive biomarker for detecting and tracking reactive astrogliosis and Aβ pathology even among individuals in the early stages of AD.

Effects of pre-analytical procedures on blood biomarkers for Alzheimer's pathophysiology, glial activation, and neurodegeneration

Introduction: We tested how tube types (ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid [EDTA], serum, lithium heparin [LiHep], and citrate) and freeze-thaw cycles affect levels of blood biomarkers for Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathophysiology, glial activation, and neuronal injury.Methods: Amyloid beta (A beta)42, A beta 40, phosphorylated tau181 (p-tau181), glial fibrillary acidic protein, total tau (t-tau), neurofilament light, and phosphorylated neurofilament heavy protein were measured using single molecule arrays.Results: LiHep demonstrated the highest mean value for all biomarkers. Tube types were highly correlated for most biomarkers (r > 0.95) but gave significantly different absolute concentrations. Weaker correlations between tube types were found for A beta 42/40 (r = 0.63-0.86) and serum t-tau (r = 0.46-0.64). Freeze-thaw cycles highly influenced levels of serum A beta and t-tau (PDiscussion: The same tube type should be used in research studies on blood biomarkers. Individual concentration cut-offs are needed for each tube type in all tested biomarkers despite being highly correlated. Serum should be avoided for A beta 42, A beta 40, and t-tau. Freeze-thaw cycles > 3 should be avoided for p-tau181.</p