Implementation of and Early Outcomes From Anal Cancer Screening at a Community-Engaged Health Care Facility Providing Care to Nigerian Men Who Have Sex With Men.

PurposeAnal cancer risk is substantially higher among HIV-infected men who have sex with men (MSM) as compared with other reproductive-age adults, but screening is rare across sub-Saharan Africa. We report the use of high-resolution anoscopy (HRA) as a first-line screening tool and the resulting early outcomes among MSM in Abuja, Nigeria.MethodsFrom August 2016 to August 2017, 424 MSM enrolled in an anal cancer screening substudy of TRUST/RV368, a combined HIV prevention and treatment cohort. HRA-directed biopsies were diagnosed by histology, and ablative treatment was offered for high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL). HRA proficiency was assessed by evaluating the detection of squamous intraepithelial lesions (SIL) over time and the proportion biopsied. Prevalence estimates of low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions and HSIL with 95% CIs were calculated. Multinomial logistic regression was used to identify those at the highest risk of SIL.ResultsMedian age was 25 years (interquartile range [IQR], 22-29), median time since sexual debut was 8 years (IQR, 4-12), and 59% (95% CI, 54.2% to 63.6%) were HIV infected. Rate of detection of any SIL stabilized after 200 screenings, and less than 20% had two or more biopsies. Preliminary prevalence estimates of low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions and HSIL were 50.0% (95% CI, 44.7% to 55.3%) and 6.3% (95% CI, 4.0% to 9.3%). HIV infection, at least 8 years since anal coital debut, concurrency, and external warts were independently statistically associated with SIL.ConclusionProficiency with HRA increased with experience over time. However, HSIL detection rates were low, potentially affected by obstructed views from internal warts and low biopsy rates, highlighting the need for ongoing evaluation and mentoring to validate this finding. HRA is a feasible first-line screening tool at an MSM-friendly health care facility. Years since anal coital debut and external warts could prioritize screening

Simulation of the Optimum Planting Windows for Early and Intermediate-Maturing Maize Varieties in the Nigerian Savannas Using the APSIM Model

The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model was calibrated and validated and used to identify the optimum planting windows for two contrasting maize varieties for three agro-ecologies in the Nigeria savannas. The model was run for 11 planting windows starting from June 1 and repeated every 7 days until 16 August using long-term historical weather data from the 7 selected sites representing three agro-ecological zones (AEZs). The evaluation with the experimental data showed that the model performance was reasonable and accurately predict crop phenology, total dry matter (TDM) and grain yield for both maize varieties. The seasonal planting date analysis showed that optimum planting windows for 2009EVDT and IWDC2SynF2 depend on the variety, agro-ecozones and sites. Planting from June 15 to 28 simulated the highest mean grain yield for both varieties in all the agro-ecologies. In the Southern Guinea savanna (SGS) where the length of growing season is 180–210 days, the best planting window was June 8–July 19 for 2009EVDT and June 8–July 26 for IWDC2SynF2 in Abuja. The planting window that gives attainable yield at Yelwa, is June 15–July 5 for 2009EVDT and June 8–28 for IWDC2SynF2. In the Northern Guinea savannah (NGS) where the length of growing season is 150–180 days, the optimum planting window is June 15–July 19 for both varieties at Zaria and June 8–July 19 for 2009EVDT and June 8–August 2 for IWDC2SynF2 at Sabon Gari. In the Sudan savannah (SS) where the growing season is 90–120 days, planting of 2009EVDT can be delayed up to the third week of July. For the medium-maturing variety, IWDC2SynF2, planting should be done by the first week of July. Though Yelwa is in the SGS, lower yields and narrower sowing windows were simulated for both varieties than for those of the other locations. This is probably due to the poor soil fertility in this location

Application of Expanded Alkire and Foster Multidimensional Poverty Index to Nigeria

An improved Alkire and Foster Multidimensional Poverty Index (MDPI) with 20 indicators clustered into seven dimensions, namely, Social Security, Water and Sanitation, Living Standard, Employment and Income, Health, Nutrition, and Education was developed and implemented with ‘mdpi function’ deployed in R Programming Language. The function computes MDPI along with useful associated measures at sub-national or context-specific levels. It was applied to data collected from 1614 respondents from 13 selected Nigerian states and the results compare favourably with existing studies. From the results obtained, the national MDPI is 0.418 but computing MDPI at National, sub-national or context-specific levels does not always give the same trend. Also, the results further reveal that states in Northern Nigeria (0.420) are more multidimensionally deprived in most of the dimensions although there are instances where states in the South (0.415) also show severe deprivation despite their level of development. In line with the findings, it is recommended that UNDP should implement this new MDPI strategy to ensure that every sector of the society is covered by development interventions. The interventions should be region and context-specific, addressing the North’s educational and employment deprivation and the South’s urban living and social protection deficiencies as well as sex, gender and religious disparities in deprivation

Diversification of an emerging bacterial plant pathogen: insights into the global spread of Xanthomonas euvesicatoria pv. perforans.

Emerging and re-emerging plant diseases continue to present multifarious threats to global food security. Considerable recent efforts are therefore being channeled towards understanding the nature of pathogen emergence, their spread and evolution. Xanthomonas euvesicatoria pv. perforans (Xep), one of the causal agents of bacterial spot of tomato, rapidly emerged and displaced other bacterial spot xanthomonads in many tomato production regions around the world. In less than three decades, it has become a dominant xanthomonad pathogen in tomato production systems across the world and presents a compelling example for understanding diversi'cation of recently emerged bacterial plant pathogens. Although Xep has been continuously monitored in Florida since its discovery, the global population structure and evolution at the genome-scale is yet to be fully explored. The objectives of this work were to determine genetic diversity globally to ascertain if different tomato production regions contain genetically distinct Xep populations, to examine genetic relatedness of strains collected in tomato seed production areas in East Asia and other production regions, and to evaluate variation in type III secretion effectors, which are critical pathogenicity and virulence factors, in relationship to population structure. We used genome data from 270 strains from 13 countries for phylogenetic analysis and characterization of type III effector gene diversity among strains. Our results showed notable genetic diversity in the pathogen. We found genetically similar strains in distant tomato production regions, including seed production regions, and diversi'cation over the past 100 years, which is consistent with intercontinental dissemination of the pathogen in hybrid tomato production chains. Evolution of the Xep pangenome, including the acquisition and loss of type III secreted effectors, is apparent within and among phylogenetic lineages. The apparent long-distance movement of the pathogen, together with variants that may not yet be widely distributed, poses risks of emergence of new variants in tomato production

Establishing targets for advanced HIV disease: A call to action

The World Health Organization (WHO) has published a guideline for the management of individuals with advanced HIV disease (AHD) to reduce HIV-related deaths. The guideline consists of a package of recommendations including interventions to prevent, diagnose and treat common opportunistic infections, including tuberculosis (TB), cryptococcosis and severe bacterial infections, along with rapid initiation of antiretroviral treatment and enhanced adherence support. Currently no clear targets exist for these key interventions. Emerging programmatic data from Uganda, Tanzania and Nigeria suggest that an estimated 80% of eligible people continue to miss the recommended cryptococcal or TB testing, highlighting the remaining challenges to the effective implementation of WHO-recommended AHD packages of care in real-world resource-limited settings. The absence of mortality indicators for the leading causes of HIV-related deaths, because of the lack of mechanisms to ascertain cause of death, has had a negative impact on establishing interventions to reduce mortality. We suggest that setting 95-95-95 targets for CD4 testing, cryptococcal antigen and TB testing, and treatment that are aligned to the WHO AHD package of care would be a step in the right direction to achieving the greater goal of the WHO End TB strategy and the proposed new strategy to end cryptococcal meningitis deaths. However, these targets will only be achieved if there is healthcare worker training, expanded access to bedside point-of-care diagnostics for hospitalised patients and those in outpatient care who meet the criteria for AHD, and health systems strengthening to minimise delays in initiating the WHO-recommended therapies for TB and cryptococcal disease

Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

Abstract: Purpose: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are particularly susceptible to developing pressure injuries. Epidemiologic data is however unavailable. We aimed to provide an international picture of the extent of pressure injuries and factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries in adult ICU patients. Methods: International 1-day point-prevalence study; follow-up for outcome assessment until hospital discharge (maximum 12 weeks). Factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injury and hospital mortality were assessed by generalised linear mixed-effects regression analysis. Results: Data from 13,254 patients in 1117 ICUs (90 countries) revealed 6747 pressure injuries; 3997 (59.2%) were ICU-acquired. Overall prevalence was 26.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 25.9–27.3). ICU-acquired prevalence was 16.2% (95% CI 15.6–16.8). Sacrum (37%) and heels (19.5%) were most affected. Factors independently associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries were older age, male sex, being underweight, emergency surgery, higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Braden score 3 days, comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunodeficiency), organ support (renal replacement, mechanical ventilation on ICU admission), and being in a low or lower-middle income-economy. Gradually increasing associations with mortality were identified for increasing severity of pressure injury: stage I (odds ratio [OR] 1.5; 95% CI 1.2–1.8), stage II (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.4–1.9), and stage III or worse (OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.3–3.3). Conclusion: Pressure injuries are common in adult ICU patients. ICU-acquired pressure injuries are associated with mainly intrinsic factors and mortality. Optimal care standards, increased awareness, appropriate resource allocation, and further research into optimal prevention are pivotal to tackle this important patient safety threat

Twelve-month observational study of children with cancer in 41 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic

Introduction Childhood cancer is a leading cause of death. It is unclear whether the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted childhood cancer mortality. In this study, we aimed to establish all-cause mortality rates for childhood cancers during the COVID-19 pandemic and determine the factors associated with mortality. Methods Prospective cohort study in 109 institutions in 41 countries. Inclusion criteria: children <18 years who were newly diagnosed with or undergoing active treatment for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, Hodgkin lymphoma, retinoblastoma, Wilms tumour, glioma, osteosarcoma, Ewing sarcoma, rhabdomyosarcoma, medulloblastoma and neuroblastoma. Of 2327 cases, 2118 patients were included in the study. The primary outcome measure was all-cause mortality at 30 days, 90 days and 12 months. Results All-cause mortality was 3.4% (n=71/2084) at 30-day follow-up, 5.7% (n=113/1969) at 90-day follow-up and 13.0% (n=206/1581) at 12-month follow-up. The median time from diagnosis to multidisciplinary team (MDT) plan was longest in low-income countries (7 days, IQR 3-11). Multivariable analysis revealed several factors associated with 12-month mortality, including low-income (OR 6.99 (95% CI 2.49 to 19.68); p<0.001), lower middle income (OR 3.32 (95% CI 1.96 to 5.61); p<0.001) and upper middle income (OR 3.49 (95% CI 2.02 to 6.03); p<0.001) country status and chemotherapy (OR 0.55 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.86); p=0.008) and immunotherapy (OR 0.27 (95% CI 0.08 to 0.91); p=0.035) within 30 days from MDT plan. Multivariable analysis revealed laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (OR 5.33 (95% CI 1.19 to 23.84); p=0.029) was associated with 30-day mortality. Conclusions Children with cancer are more likely to die within 30 days if infected with SARS-CoV-2. However, timely treatment reduced odds of death. This report provides crucial information to balance the benefits of providing anticancer therapy against the risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection in children with cancer

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Nontraumatic Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

Importance: Nontraumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) represents the third most common stroke type with unique etiologies, risk factors, diagnostics, and treatments. Nevertheless, epidemiological studies often cluster SAH with other stroke types leaving its distinct burden estimates obscure. Objective: To estimate the worldwide burden of SAH. Design, setting, and participants: Based on the repeated cross-sectional Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, the global burden of SAH in 1990 to 2021 was estimated. Moreover, the SAH burden was compared with other diseases, and its associations with 14 individual risk factors were investigated with available data in the GBD 2021 study. The GBD study included the burden estimates of nontraumatic SAH among all ages in 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2021. Exposures: SAH and 14 modifiable risk factors. Main outcomes and measures: Absolute numbers and age-standardized rates with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) of SAH incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) as well as risk factor-specific population attributable fractions (PAFs). Results: In 2021, the global age-standardized SAH incidence was 8.3 (95% UI, 7.3-9.5), prevalence was 92.2 (95% UI, 84.1-100.6), mortality was 4.2 (95% UI, 3.7-4.8), and DALY rate was 125.2 (95% UI, 110.5-142.6) per 100 000 people. The highest burden estimates were found in Latin America, the Caribbean, Oceania, and high-income Asia Pacific. Although the absolute number of SAH cases increased, especially in regions with a low sociodemographic index, all age-standardized burden rates decreased between 1990 and 2021: the incidence by 28.8% (95% UI, 25.7%-31.6%), prevalence by 16.1% (95% UI, 14.8%-17.7%), mortality by 56.1% (95% UI, 40.7%-64.3%), and DALY rate by 54.6% (95% UI, 42.8%-61.9%). Of 300 diseases, SAH ranked as the 36th most common cause of death and 59th most common cause of DALY in the world. Of all worldwide SAH-related DALYs, 71.6% (95% UI, 63.8%-78.6%) were associated with the 14 modeled risk factors of which high systolic blood pressure (population attributable fraction [PAF] = 51.6%; 95% UI, 38.0%-62.6%) and smoking (PAF = 14.4%; 95% UI, 12.4%-16.5%) had the highest attribution. Conclusions and relevance: Although the global age-standardized burden rates of SAH more than halved over the last 3 decades, SAH remained one of the most common cardiovascular and neurological causes of death and disabilities in the world, with increasing absolute case numbers. These findings suggest evidence for the potential health benefits of proactive public health planning and resource allocation toward the prevention of SAH

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions