Messier 87: A Laboratory for Exploring AGN Variability using the Event Horizon Telescope

At a distance of 50 million light years at the heart of the Virgo cluster, lies the giant elliptical galaxy Messier 87. This galaxy has at its center a brilliant relativistic jet, observable at all wavelengths, and at the jet's base, the black hole M87*. As of April 2017, this black hole was directly imaged by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT), a network of eight radio telescopes scattered across the globe. These first images of a black hole will let us investigate not only the physics of black holes, but also the formation and launching mechanism of relativistic jets. The jet in M87 is known to exhibit variability on many different time-scales, from weeks to decades, and comparing the images produced by the EHT to models for jet variability will let us learn how relativistic jets are born. Synchrotron spot models have been used to model variability near black holes; the first part of this thesis extends these models by allowing spots to shear and deform in the jet velocity field. Depending on the position of the spot, shearing forces can significantly alter the structure of the spot, producing distinct signals in reconstructed images and light curves. The maximum intensity of the shearing spot can vary by as much as a factor of five depending on the spot azimuthal launch position, but the intensity decay time depends most significantly on the spot radial launch position. Spots launched by a black hole driven jet exhibit distinct arc structures in reconstructed images, and exhibit brighter and shorter-lived enhancements of the light curve. Spots launched by a wind-driven jet have exhibit much simpler structures in the image, and longer-lived light curve enhancements than spots launched by a black hole driven jet. The EHT measured the mass of M87* to be $6.5 \times 10^{9} ~M_{\odot}$, consistent with previous mass estimates from stellar kinematics, but inconsistent by up to $2\sigma$ with mass estimates made using gas dynamics models of the gas disk at parsec scales. Critical to gas-dynamical modeling is the assumed underlying dynamical state of the gas: that it lies on circular Keplerian orbits, potentially with some additional turbulent pressure support. This is inconsistent with models of the gas flow about low-accretion-rate SMBHs and at odds with observations of the Galactic Center. In the second part of this thesis, I present an extended model for non-Keplerian gas disks and explore their implications for SMBH mass measurements. I show that a larger central black hole with gas experiencing small amounts of sub-Keplerian motion and/or non-trivial disk thicknesses can produce velocity curves similar to models that just contain circular Keplerian motions and a lower black hole mass. These non-Keplerian models are distinguishable from low-mass Keplerian models primarily through measuremnets of the velocity dispersion, wherein non-Keplerian models produce higher and narrower peak dispersions. By combining the existing velocity measurements from \citet{M87gas:13} and the EHT mass estimate, we place constraints on the gas disk inclination and sub-Keplerian fraction. These constraints require the parsec-scale ionized gas disk be misaligned with the \mas radio jet by at least $2^{\circ}$, and more typically $15^{\circ}$. Modifications to the gas dynamics model either by introducing sub-Keplerian velocities or thick disks produces further misalignment with the radio jet. If the jet is driven by the black hole spin, this implies that the angular momentum of the black hole is decoupled with the angular momentum of the large scale gas feeding M87*. The velocity model presented in this thesis is capable of resolving the discrepancy between the ionized gas dynamics and stellar kinematics mass estimates, and is applicable to gas-dynamical mass estimates of SMBHs in general

The Photon Ring in M87*

We report measurements of the gravitationally lensed secondary image—the first in an infinite series of so-called “photon rings”—around the supermassive black hole M87* via simultaneous modeling and imaging of the 2017 Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations. The inferred ring size remains constant across the seven days of the 2017 EHT observing campaign and is consistent with theoretical expectations, providing clear evidence that such measurements probe spacetime and a striking confirmation of the models underlying the first set of EHT results. The residual diffuse emission evolves on timescales comparable to one week. We are able to detect with high significance a southwestern extension consistent with that expected from the base of a jet that is rapidly rotating in the clockwise direction. This result adds further support to the identification of the jet in M87* with a black hole spin-driven outflow, launched via the Blandford-Znajek process. We present three revised estimates for the mass of M87* based on identifying the modeled thin ring component with the bright ringlike features seen in simulated images, one of which is only weakly sensitive to the astrophysics of the emission region. All three estimates agree with each other and previously reported values. Our strongest mass constraint combines information from both the ring and the diffuse emission region, which together imply a mass-to-distance ratio of 4.20 − 0.06 + 0.12 μ as and a corresponding black hole mass of (7.13 \ub1 0.39) 7 109 M ⊙, where the error on the latter is now dominated by the systematic uncertainty arising from the uncertain distance to M87*

First Sagittarius A* Event Horizon Telescope Results. I. The Shadow of the Supermassive Black Hole in the Center of the Milky Way

We present the first Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations of Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), the Galactic center source associated with a supermassive black hole. These observations were conducted in 2017 using a global interferometric array of eight telescopes operating at a wavelength of λ = 1.3 mm. The EHT data resolve a compact emission region with intrahour variability. A variety of imaging and modeling analyses all support an image that is dominated by a bright, thick ring with a diameter of 51.8 \ub1 2.3 μas (68% credible interval). The ring has modest azimuthal brightness asymmetry and a comparatively dim interior. Using a large suite of numerical simulations, we demonstrate that the EHT images of Sgr A* are consistent with the expected appearance of a Kerr black hole with mass ∼4 7 106 M☉, which is inferred to exist at this location based on previous infrared observations of individual stellar orbits, as well as maser proper-motion studies. Our model comparisons disfavor scenarios where the black hole is viewed at high inclination (i > 50\ub0), as well as nonspinning black holes and those with retrograde accretion disks. Our results provide direct evidence for the presence of a supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way, and for the first time we connect the predictions from dynamical measurements of stellar orbits on scales of 103-105 gravitational radii to event-horizon-scale images and variability. Furthermore, a comparison with the EHT results for the supermassive black hole M87* shows consistency with the predictions of general relativity spanning over three orders of magnitude in central mass

Advancing Research on Racial–Ethnic Health Disparities: Improving Measurement Equivalence in Studies with Diverse Samples

To conduct meaningful, epidemiologic research on racial–ethnic health disparities, racial–ethnic samples must be rendered equivalent on other social status and contextual variables via statistical controls of those extraneous factors. The racial–ethnic groups must also be equally familiar with and have similar responses to the methods and measures used to collect health data, must have equal opportunity to participate in the research, and must be equally representative of their respective populations. In the absence of such measurement equivalence, studies of racial–ethnic health disparities are confounded by a plethora of unmeasured, uncontrolled correlates of race–ethnicity. Those correlates render the samples, methods, and measures incomparable across racial–ethnic groups, and diminish the ability to attribute health differences discovered to race–ethnicity vs. to its correlates. This paper reviews the non-equivalent yet normative samples, methodologies and measures used in epidemiologic studies of racial–ethnic health disparities, and provides concrete suggestions for improving sample, method, and scalar measurement equivalence

THEMIS: A Parameter Estimation Framework for the Event Horizon Telescope

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) provides the unprecedented ability to directly resolve the structure and dynamics of black hole emission regions on scales smaller than their horizons. This has the potential to critically probe the mechanisms by which black holes accrete and launch outflows, and the structure of supermassive black hole spacetimes. However, accessing this information is a formidable analysis challenge for two reasons. First, the EHT natively produces a variety of data types that encode information about the image structure in nontrivial ways; these are subject to a variety of systematic effects associated with very long baseline interferometry and are supplemented by a wide variety of auxiliary data on the primary EHT targets from decades of other observations. Second, models of the emission regions and their interaction with the black hole are complex, highly uncertain, and computationally expensive to construct. As a result, the scientific utilization of EHT observations requires a flexible, extensible, and powerful analysis framework. We present such a framework, Themis, which defines a set of interfaces between models, data, and sampling algorithms that facilitates future development. We describe the design and currently existing components of Themis, how Themis has been validated thus far, and present additional analyses made possible by Themis that illustrate its capabilities. Importantly, we demonstrate that Themis is able to reproduce prior EHT analyses, extend these, and do so in a computationally efficient manner that can efficiently exploit modern high-performance computing facilities. Themis has already been used extensively in the scientific analysis and interpretation of the first EHT observations of M87

SYMBA: An end-to-end VLBI synthetic data generation pipeline: Simulating Event Horizon Telescope observations of M 87

Context. Realistic synthetic observations of theoretical source models are essential for our understanding of real observational data. In using synthetic data, one can verify the extent to which source parameters can be recovered and evaluate how various data corruption effects can be calibrated. These studies are the most important when proposing observations of new sources, in the characterization of the capabilities of new or upgraded instruments, and when verifying model-based theoretical predictions in a direct comparison with observational data. Aims. We present the SYnthetic Measurement creator for long Baseline Arrays (SYMBA), a novel synthetic data generation pipeline for Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) observations. SYMBA takes into account several realistic atmospheric, instrumental, and calibration effects. Methods. We used SYMBA to create synthetic observations for the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT), a millimetre VLBI array, which has recently captured the first image of a black hole shadow. After testing SYMBA with simple source and corruption models, we study the importance of including all corruption and calibration effects, compared to the addition of thermal noise only. Using synthetic data based on two example general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics (GRMHD) model images of M 87, we performed case studies to assess the image quality that can be obtained with the current and future EHT array for different weather conditions. Results. Our synthetic observations show that the effects of atmospheric and instrumental corruptions on the measured visibilities are significant. Despite these effects, we demonstrate how the overall structure of our GRMHD source models can be recovered robustly with the EHT2017 array after performing calibration steps, which include fringe fitting, a priori amplitude and network calibration, and self-calibration. With the planned addition of new stations to the EHT array in the coming years, images could be reconstructed with higher angular resolution and dynamic range. In our case study, these improvements allowed for a distinction between a thermal and a non-thermal GRMHD model based on salient features in reconstructed images

Monitoring the Morphology of M87* in 2009–2017 with the Event Horizon Telescope

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) has recently delivered the first resolved images of M87*, the supermassive black hole in the center of the M87 galaxy. These images were produced using 230 GHz observations performed in 2017 April. Additional observations are required to investigate the persistence of the primary image feature—a ring with azimuthal brightness asymmetry—and to quantify the image variability on event horizon scales. To address this need, we analyze M87* data collected with prototype EHT arrays in 2009, 2011, 2012, and 2013. While these observations do not contain enough information to produce images, they are sufficient to constrain simple geometric models. We develop a modeling approach based on the framework utilized for the 2017 EHT data analysis and validate our procedures using synthetic data. Applying the same approach to the observational data sets, we find the M87* morphology in 2009–2017 to be consistent with a persistent asymmetric ring of ~40 μas diameter. The position angle of the peak intensity varies in time. In particular, we find a significant difference between the position angle measured in 2013 and 2017. These variations are in broad agreement with predictions of a subset of general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations. We show that quantifying the variability across multiple observational epochs has the potential to constrain the physical properties of the source, such as the accretion state or the black hole spin

First M87 Event Horizon Telescope Results. VI. The Shadow and Mass of the Central Black Hole

We present measurements of the properties of the central radio source in M87 using Event Horizon Telescope data obtained during the 2017 campaign. We develop and fit geometric crescent models (asymmetric rings with interior brightness depressions) using two independent sampling algorithms that consider distinct representations of the visibility data. We show that the crescent family of models is statistically preferred over other comparably complex geometric models that we explore. We calibrate the geometric model parameters using general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) models of the emission region and estimate physical properties of the source. We further fit images generated from GRMHD models directly to the data. We compare the derived emission region and black hole parameters from these analyses with those recovered from reconstructed images. There is a remarkable consistency among all methods and data sets. We find that >50% of the total flux at arcsecond scales comes from near the horizon, and that the emission is dramatically suppressed interior to this region by a factor >10, providing direct evidence of the predicted shadow of a black hole. Across all methods, we measure a crescent diameter of 42 +/- 3 mu as and constrain its fractional width to b

First M87 Event Horizon Telescope Results. IV. Imaging the Central Supermassive Black Hole

We present the first Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) images of M87, using observations from April 2017 at 1.3 mm wavelength. These images show a prominent ring with a diameter of similar to 40 mu as, consistent with the size and shape of the lensed photon orbit encircling the "shadow" of a supermassive black hole. The ring is persistent across four observing nights and shows enhanced brightness in the south. To assess the reliability of these results, we implemented a two-stage imaging procedure. In the first stage, four teams, each blind to the others' work, produced images of M87 using both an established method (CLEAN) and a newer technique (regularized maximum likelihood). This stage allowed us to avoid shared human bias and to assess common features among independent reconstructions. In the second stage, we reconstructed synthetic data from a large survey of imaging parameters and then compared the results with the corresponding ground truth images. This stage allowed us to select parameters objectively to use when reconstructing images of M87. Across all tests in both stages, the ring diameter and asymmetry remained stable, insensitive to the choice of imaging technique. We describe the EHT imaging procedures, the primary image features in M87, and the dependence of these features on imaging assumptions