Midcontinental Native American population dynamics and late Holocene hydroclimate extremes

Climate’s influence on late Pre-Columbian (pre-1492 CE), maize-dependent Native American populations in the midcontinental United States (US) is poorly understood as regional paleoclimate records are sparse and/or provide conflicting perspectives. Here, we reconstruct regional changes in precipitation source and seasonality and local changes in warm-season duration and rainstorm events related to the Pacific North American pattern (PNA) using a 2100-year-long multi-proxy lake-sediment record from the midcontinental US. Wet midcontinental climate reflecting negative PNA-like conditions occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950–1250 CE) as Native American populations adopted intensive maize agriculture, facilitating population aggregation and the development of urban centers between 1000–1200 CE. Intensifying midcontinental socio-political instability and warfare between 1250–1350 CE corresponded with drier positive PNA-like conditions, culminating in the staggered abandonment of many major Native American river valley settlements and large urban centers between 1350–1450 CE during an especially severe warm-season drought. We hypothesize that this sustained drought interval rendered it difficult to support dense populations and large urban centers in the midcontinental US by destabilizing regional agricultural systems, thereby contributing to the host of socio-political factors that led to population reorganization and migration in the midcontinent and neighboring regions shortly before European contact

Late-Holocene floodplain development, land-use, and hydroclimate–flood relationships on the lower Ohio River, US

Floodplain development, land-use, and flooding on the lower Ohio River are investigated with a 3100-year-long sediment archive from Avery Lake, a swale lake on the Black Bottom floodplain in southern Illinois, US. In all, 12 radiocarbon dates show that Avery Lake formed at 1130 BCE (3100 cal. yr BP), almost 3000 years later than previously thought, indicating that the Black Bottom floodplain is younger and more dynamic than previously estimated. Three subsequent periods of extensive land clearance were identified by changes in pollen composition, corresponding to Native American occupations before 1500 CE and the current Euro-American occupation beginning in the 18th century. Sedimentation rates prior to 1820 CE changed independently of land clearance events, suggesting natural as opposed to land-use controls. Comparison with high-resolution paleoclimate data from Martin Lake, IN, indicates that lower Ohio River flooding was frequent when cold-season precipitation originating from the Pacific/Arctic predominated when atmospheric circulation resembled positive Pacific North American (PNA) conditions and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was in a positive mean state (1130 BCE to 350 CE and 1150–1820 CE). Conversely, Ohio River flooding was less frequent when warm-season precipitation from the Gulf of Mexico prevailed during negative PDO- and PNA-like mean states (350 and 1150 CE). This flood dynamic appears to have been fundamentally altered after 1820 CE. We suggest that extensive land clearance in the Ohio River watershed increased runoff and landscape erosion by reducing interception, infiltration, and evapotranspiration, thereby increasing flooding despite a shift to negative PDO- and PNA-like mean states. Predicted increases in average precipitation and extreme rainfall events across the mid-continental US are likely to perpetuate current trends toward more frequent flood events, because anthropogenic modifications have made the landscape less resilient to changing hydroclimatic conditions

Severe Little Ice Age drought in the midcontinental United States during the Mississippian abandonment of Cahokia

Drought has long been suspected as playing an important role in the abandonment of pre-Columbian Native American settlements across the midcontinental United States between 1350 and 1450 CE. However, high-resolution paleoclimatic reconstructions reflecting local effective moisture (the ratio of precipitation to evaporation) that are located in proximity to Mississippi period (1050–1450 CE) population centers are lacking. Here, we present a 1600-year-long decadally resolved oxygen isotope (δ18O) record from Horseshoe Lake (Collinsville, IL), an evaporatively influenced oxbow lake that is centrally located within the largest and mostly densely populated series of Mississippian settlements known as Greater Cahokia. A shift to higher δ18O in the Horseshoe Lake sediment record from 1200 to 1400 CE indicates that strongly evaporative conditions (i.e., low effective moisture) were persistent during the leadup to Cahokia’s abandonment. These results support the hypothesis that climate, and drought specifically, strongly impacted agriculturally based pre-Columbian Native American cultures in the midcontinental US and highlights the susceptibility of this region, presently a global food production center, to hydroclimate extremes

SPRAYTRAN 1.0 User’s Guide: A GIS-Based Atmospheric Spray Droplet Dispersion Modeling System

SPRAY TRANsport (SPRAYTRAN) is a comprehensive dispersion modeling system that is used to simulate the offsite drift of pesticides from spray applications. SPRAYTRAN functions as a console application within Environmental System Research Institute’s ArcMap Geographic Information System (Version 9.x) and integrates the widely-used, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)-approved CALifornia PUFF (CALPUFF) dispersion model and model components to simulate longer-range transport and diffusion in variable terrain and spatially/temporally varying meteorological (e.g., wind) fields. Area sources, which are used to define spray blocks in SPRAYTRAN, are initialized using output files generated from a separate aerial-spray-application model called AGDISP (AGricultural DISPersal). The AGDISP model is used for estimating the amount of pesticide deposited to the spray block based on spraying characteristics (e.g., pesticide type, spray nozzles, and aircraft type) and then simulating the near-field (less than 300-m) drift from a single pesticide application. The fraction of pesticide remaining airborne from the AGDISP near-field simulation is then used by SPRAYTRAN for simulating longer-range (greater than 300 m) drift and deposition of the pesticide

Identifying active vascular microcalcification by (18)F-sodium fluoride positron emission tomography.

Vascular calcification is a complex biological process that is a hallmark of atherosclerosis. While macrocalcification confers plaque stability, microcalcification is a key feature of high-risk atheroma and is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Positron emission tomography and X-ray computed tomography (PET/CT) imaging of atherosclerosis using (18)F-sodium fluoride ((18)F-NaF) has the potential to identify pathologically high-risk nascent microcalcification. However, the precise molecular mechanism of (18)F-NaF vascular uptake is still unknown. Here we use electron microscopy, autoradiography, histology and preclinical and clinical PET/CT to analyse (18)F-NaF binding. We show that (18)F-NaF adsorbs to calcified deposits within plaque with high affinity and is selective and specific. (18)F-NaF PET/CT imaging can distinguish between areas of macro- and microcalcification. This is the only currently available clinical imaging platform that can non-invasively detect microcalcification in active unstable atherosclerosis. The use of (18)F-NaF may foster new approaches to developing treatments for vascular calcification.AI Wellcome Trust PhD Programme in Metabolic and Cardiovascular Disease Grant Number 096823/Z/11/Z, Wellcome Trust (WT103782AIA), British Heart Foundation (RG/10/007/28300, CH/09/002/26360, PG/12/8/29371), NHS Research Scotland and NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from the Nature Publishing Group via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms849

Generation lengths of the world's birds and their implications for extinction risk

Birds have been comprehensively assessed on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List more times than any other taxonomic group. However, to date, generation lengths have not been systematically estimated to scale population trends when undertaking assessments, as required by the criteria of the IUCN Red List. We compiled information from major databases of published life-history and trait data for all birds and imputed missing life-history data as a function of species traits with generalized linear mixed models. Generation lengths were derived for all species, based on our modeled values of age at first breeding, maximum longevity, and annual adult survival. The resulting generation lengths varied from 1.42 to 27.87 years (median 2.99). Most species (61%) had generation lengths <3.33 years, meaning that the period of 3 generations—over which population declines are assessed under criterion A—was <10 years, which is the value used for IUCN Red List assessments of species with short generation times. For these species, our trait-informed estimates of generation length suggested that 10 years is a robust precautionary value for threat assessment. In other cases, however, for whole families, genera, or individual species, generation length had a substantial impact on their estimated extinction risk, resulting in higher extinction risk in long-lived species than in short-lived species. Although our approach effectively addressed data gaps, generation lengths for some species may have been underestimated due to a paucity of life-history data. Overall, our results will strengthen future extinction-risk assessments and augment key databases of avian life-history and trait data

Using Epigenetic Networks for the Analysis of Movement Associated with Levodopa Therapy for Parkinson's Disease

© 2016 The Author(s) Levodopa is a drug that is commonly used to treat movement disorders associated with Parkinson's disease. Its dosage requires careful monitoring, since the required amount changes over time, and excess dosage can lead to muscle spasms known as levodopa-induced dyskinesia. In this work, we investigate the potential for using epiNet, a novel artificial gene regulatory network, as a classifier for monitoring accelerometry time series data collected from patients undergoing levodopa therapy. We also consider how dynamical analysis of epiNet classifiers and their transitions between different states can highlight clinically useful information which is not available through more conventional data mining techniques. The results show that epiNet is capable of discriminating between different movement patterns which are indicative of either insufficient or excessive levodopa

The predictive role of symptoms in COVID-19 diagnostic models : A longitudinal insight

Acknowledgements 2019nCoV-302 Study Group Members: The NVX-CoV2373-2019nCoV-302 clinical trial was a collective group effort across multiple institutions and locations. Below is a list of sites and staff that significantly contributed to the implementation and conduct of the NVX-CoV2373-2019nCoV-302 clinical trial.Peer reviewe

The Fourteenth Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey: First Spectroscopic Data from the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey and from the second phase of the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment

The fourth generation of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-IV) has been in operation since July 2014. This paper describes the second data release from this phase, and the fourteenth from SDSS overall (making this, Data Release Fourteen or DR14). This release makes public data taken by SDSS-IV in its first two years of operation (July 2014-2016). Like all previous SDSS releases, DR14 is cumulative, including the most recent reductions and calibrations of all data taken by SDSS since the first phase began operations in 2000. New in DR14 is the first public release of data from the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS); the first data from the second phase of the Apache Point Observatory (APO) Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE-2), including stellar parameter estimates from an innovative data driven machine learning algorithm known as "The Cannon"; and almost twice as many data cubes from the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at APO (MaNGA) survey as were in the previous release (N = 2812 in total). This paper describes the location and format of the publicly available data from SDSS-IV surveys. We provide references to the important technical papers describing how these data have been taken (both targeting and observation details) and processed for scientific use. The SDSS website (www.sdss.org) has been updated for this release, and provides links to data downloads, as well as tutorials and examples of data use. SDSS-IV is planning to continue to collect astronomical data until 2020, and will be followed by SDSS-V.Comment: SDSS-IV collaboration alphabetical author data release paper. DR14 happened on 31st July 2017. 19 pages, 5 figures. Accepted by ApJS on 28th Nov 2017 (this is the "post-print" and "post-proofs" version; minor corrections only from v1, and most of errors found in proofs corrected

An exploratory study of the relationship between parental attitudes and behaviour and young people's consumption of alcohol

Background Concern is growing regarding frequent and excessive misuse of alcohol by young people. The average age at which young people in Europe start to drink is twelve and a half, and during the last decade, the quantity of alcohol consumed by younger adolescents in the UK has increased. Families are known to play an important role in shaping young people's alcohol misuse, although family risk and protective factors associated with misuse in a UK context are in need of further investigation. Methods The study used a cross-sectional design, involving secondary analyses of self-completion questionnaire responses from 6,628 secondary school children (i.e. aged 11-16 years), from 12 schools within an urban location in Wales. Items relating to family functioning and perceived parental attitudes were first subjected to factor analysis. Associations of family closeness and conflict, parental monitoring and attitudes and family history of substance misuse with children's self reported alcohol consumption were examined using logistic regression analyses. Results Approximately three quarters of respondents reported having tried alcohol, most of whom had first tried alcohol aged 12 or under. Parental monitoring and family closeness were positively correlated with one another and were both associated with significantly lower levels of drinking behaviours. Family violence and conflict, more liberal parental attitudes towards substance use and towards alcohol and petty crime, and family history of substance misuse were positively correlated with one another and with higher levels of drinking behaviours. Parental monitoring was identified as the family functioning factor most consistently associated with drinking behaviour in multivariate analyses. Conclusions Significant relationships were found between young people's drinking behaviours and perceptions of risk and protective factors in the family environment. Parental monitoring was strongly associated with family closeness and appeared to form one part of a parenting style of more general communication and regulation of children's behaviour. Findings support the need for alcohol misuse prevention interventions which address risk and protective factors within the family setting. Timing of such prevention work should be related both to the development of family relationships and the age at which young people begin drinking alcohol