A quantitative risk assessment approach for mosquito-borne diseases: malaria re-emergence in southern France

Contains fulltext : 69138.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)BACKGROUND: The Camargue region is a former malaria endemic area, where potential Anopheles vectors are still abundant. Considering the importation of Plasmodium due to the high number of imported malaria cases in France, the aim of this article was to make some predictions regarding the risk of malaria re-emergence in the Camargue. METHODS: Receptivity (vectorial capacity) and infectivity (vector susceptibility) were inferred using an innovative probabilistic approach and considering both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. Each parameter of receptivity (human biting rate, anthropophily, length of trophogonic cycle, survival rate, length of sporogonic cycle) and infectivity were estimated based on field survey, bibliographic data and expert knowledge and fitted with probability distributions taking into account the variability and the uncertainty of the estimation. Spatial and temporal variations of the parameters were determined using environmental factors derived from satellite imagery, meteorological data and entomological field data. The entomological risk (receptivity/infectivity) was calculated using 10,000 different randomly selected sets of values extracted from the probability distributions. The result was mapped in the Camargue area. Finally, vulnerability (number of malaria imported cases) was inferred using data collected in regional hospitals. RESULTS: The entomological risk presented large spatial, temporal and Plasmodium species-dependent variations. The sensitivity analysis showed that susceptibility, survival rate and human biting rate were the three most influential parameters for entomological risk. Assessment of vulnerability showed that among the imported cases in the region, only very few were imported in at-risk areas. CONCLUSION: The current risk of malaria re-emergence seems negligible due to the very low number of imported Plasmodium. This model demonstrated its efficiency for mosquito-borne diseases risk assessment

An extrasolar planetary system with three Neptune-mass planets

Over the past two years, the search for low-mass extrasolar planets has led to the detection of seven so-called 'hot Neptunes' or 'super-Earths' around Sun-like stars. These planets have masses 5-20 times larger than the Earth and are mainly found on close-in orbits with periods of 2-15 days. Here we report a system of three Neptune-mass planets with periods of 8.67, 31.6 and 197 days, orbiting the nearby star HD 69830. This star was already known to show an infrared excess possibly caused by an asteroid belt within 1 AU (the Sun-Earth distance). Simulations show that the system is in a dynamically stable configuration. Theoretical calculations favour a mainly rocky composition for both inner planets, while the outer planet probably has a significant gaseous envelope surrounding its rocky/icy core; the outer planet orbits within the habitable zone of this star.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figures, preprint of the paper published in Nature on May 18, 200

Cracking in asphalt materials

This chapter provides a comprehensive review of both laboratory characterization and modelling of bulk material fracture in asphalt mixtures. For the purpose of organization, this chapter is divided into a section on laboratory tests and a section on models. The laboratory characterization section is further subdivided on the basis of predominant loading conditions (monotonic vs. cyclic). The section on constitutive models is subdivided into two sections, the first one containing fracture mechanics based models for crack initiation and propagation that do not include material degradation due to cyclic loading conditions. The second section discusses phenomenological models that have been developed for crack growth through the use of dissipated energy and damage accumulation concepts. These latter models have the capability to simulate degradation of material capacity upon exceeding a threshold number of loading cycles.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Credible Autocoding of Convex Optimization Algorithms

International audienceThe efficiency of modern optimization methods, coupled with increasing computational resources, has led to the possibility of real-time optimization algorithms acting in safety critical roles. There is a considerable body of mathematical proofs on on-line optimization programs which can be leveraged to assist in the development and verification of their implementation. In this paper, we demonstrate how theoretical proofs of real-time optimization algorithms can be used to describe functional properties at the level of the code, thereby making it accessible for the formal methods community. The running example used in this paper is a generic semi-definite programming (SDP) solver. Semi-definite programs can encode a wide variety of optimization problems and can be solved in polynomial time at a given accuracy. We describe a top-to-down approach that transforms a high-level analysis of the algorithm into useful code annotations. We formulate some general remarks about how such a task can be incorporated into a convex programming autocoder. We then take a first step towards the automatic verification of the optimization program by identifying key issues to be adressed in future work

A strawman with machine learning for a brain: A response to Biedermann (2022) the strange persistence of (source) “identification” claims in forensic literature

We agree wholeheartedly with Biedermann (2022) FSI Synergy article 100222 in its criticism of research publications that treat forensic inference in source attribution as an “identification” or “individualization” task. We disagree, however, with its criticism of the use of machine learning for forensic inference. The argument it makes is a strawman argument. There is a growing body of literature on the calculation of well-calibrated likelihood ratios using machine-learning methods and relevant data, and on the validation under casework conditions of such machine-learning-based systems

Carbapenem Resistance and Acinetobacter baumannii in Senegal: The Paradigm of a Common Phenomenon in Natural Reservoirs

Incidence of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii is rising in several parts of the world. In Africa, data concerning this species and its resistance to carbapenems are limited. The objective of the present study was to identify the presence of A. baumannii carbapenem-resistant encoding genes in natural reservoirs in Senegal, where antibiotic pressure is believed to be low. From October 2010 to January 2011, 354 human head lice, 717 human fecal samples and 118 animal fecal samples were screened for the presence of A. baumannii by real time PCR targeting blaOXA51-like gene. For all samples positive for A. baumannii, the carbapenemase-hydrolysing oxacillinases blaOXA23-like and blaOXA24-like were searched for and sequenced, and the isolates harbouring an oxacillinase were genotyped using PCR amplification and sequencing of recA gene. The presence of A. baumannii was detected in 4.0% of the head lice, in 5.4% of the human stool samples and in 5.1% of the animal stool samples tested. No blaOXA24 gene was detected but six fecal samples and three lice were positive for blaOXA23-like gene. The blaOXA23-like gene isolated in lice was likely a new oxacillinase sequence. Finally, the A. baumannii detected in stools were all of recA genotype 3 and those detected in lice, of recA genotype 4. This study shows for the first time a reservoir of blaOXA23-like-positive gene in human head lice and stool samples in Senegal

Coxiella burnetii in Humans and Ticks in Rural Senegal

Q fever is a zoonotic disease known since 1937. The disease may be severe, causing pneumonia, hepatitis and endocarditis. Q fever agent has been described as a possible biological weapon. Animals—especially domestic cows, goats and sheep—are considered reservoirs for this infection. They are capable of sustaining the infection for long periods and excreting viable bacteria, infecting other animals and, occasionally, humans. Here we studied the distribution of Q fever in a poorly studied region, Senegal. We studied the agent of Q fever both in ticks parasitizing domestic animals and in humans (antibodies in serum, bacteria in feces, saliva and milk). We found from the studied regions the bacterium is highly prevalent in rural Senegal. Up to 37.6% of five different and most prevalent tick species may carry the bacterium. Humans living in such areas, as other mammals, may occasionally excrete Q fever agent through feces and milk

Turnover rate of cerebrospinal fluid in female sheep: changes related to different light-dark cycles

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Sheep are seasonal breeders. The key factor governing seasonal changes in the reproductive activity of the ewe is increased negative feedback of estradiol at the level of the hypothalamus under long-day conditions. It has previously been demonstrated that when gonadotropin secretions are inhibited during long days, there is a higher concentration of estradiol in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) than during short days. This suggests an involvement of the CSF and choroid plexus in the neuroendocrine regulatory loop, but the mechanisms underlying this phenomenon remain unknown. One possible explanation of this difference in hormonal content is an effect of concentration or dilution caused by variations in CSF secretion rate. The aim of this study was thus to investigate changes in the CSF turnover rate related to light-dark cycles.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The turnover rate of the CSF was estimated by measuring the time taken for the recovery of intraventricular pressure (IVP) after removal of a moderate volume (0.5 to 2 ml) of CSF (slope in mmHg/min). The turnover rate was estimated three times in the same group of sheep: during a natural period of decreasing day-length corresponding to the initial period when gonadotropin activity is stimulated (SG1), during a long-day inhibitory period (IG), and finally during a short-day stimulatory period (SG2).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The time taken and the speed of recovery of initial IVP differed between groups: 8 min 30 sec, 0.63 ± 0.07 mmHg/min(SG1), 11 min 1 sec, 0.38 ± 0.06 mmHg/min (IG) and 9 min 0 sec, 0.72 ± 0.15 mmHg/min (SG2). Time changes of IVP differed between groups (ANOVA, p < 0.005, SG1 different from IG, <it>p </it>< 0.05). The turnover rate in SG2: 183.16 ± 23.82 μl/min was not significantly different from SG1: 169. 23 ± 51.58 μl/min (Mann-Whitney test, <it>p </it>= 0.41), but was significantly different from IG: 71.33 ± 16.59 μl/min (<it>p </it>= 0.016).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study shows that the turnover rate of CSF in ewes changes according to the light-dark cycle; it is increased during short day periods and reduced in long day periods. This phenomenon could account for differences in hormonal concentrations in the CSF in this seasonal species.</p