System-focused risk identification and assessment for disaster preparedness: Dynamic threat analysis

AbstractCurrent approaches to risk management stress the need for dynamic (i.e. continuous, ongoing) approaches to risk identification as part of a planned resource application aimed at reducing the expected consequences of undesired outcomes for the object of the assessment. We contend that these approaches place insufficient emphasis on the system knowledge available to the assessor, particularly in respect of three factors, namely the dynamic behavior of the system under threat, the role of human agents and the knowledge availability to those agents.In this paper we address the first of these shortcomings, namely the mobilization of explicit system knowledge in the identification of risks. We present a procedure for mobilizing quantitative and qualitative dynamic system knowledge using the case of flood threat to an electricity substation as a worked example. We assert that the approach described offers the potential of improving risk cognition by mobilizing system knowledge

An entomocentric view of the Janzen-Connell hypothesis

In 1987, in the first issue of Conservation Biology, Edward O. Wilson wrote about the “little things that run the world” – the importance and conservation of insects (Wilson, 1987). Readers of Insect Conservation and Diversity will no doubt be very familiar with the concept. Sadly, however, this perception is not as widely shared among the rest of the scientific community as it should be, and insects are still comparatively neglected as a prime focus of scientific investigations

Simple, policy friendly, ecological interaction models from uncertain data and expert opinion

In the marine environment, humans exploit natural ecosystems for food and economic benefit. Challenging policy goals have been set to protect resources, species, communities and habitats, yet ecologists often have sparse data on interactions occurring in the system to assess policy outcomes. This paper presents a technique, loosely based on Bayesian Belief Networks, to create simple models which 1) predict whether individual species within a community will decline or increase in population size, 2) encapsulate uncertainty in the predictions in an intuitive manner and 3) require limited knowledge of the ecosystem and functional parameters required to model it. We develop our model for a UK rocky shore community, to utilise existing knowledge of species interactions for model validation purposes. However, we also test the role of expert opinion, without full scientific knowledge of species interactions, by asking non-UK based marine scientists to derive parameters for the model (non-UK scientists are not familiar with the exact communities being described and will need to extrapolate from existing knowledge in a similar manner to model a poorly studied system). We find these differ little from the parameters derived by ourselves and make little difference to the final model predictions. We also test our model against simple experimental manipulations, and find that the most important changes in community structure as a result of manipulations correspond well to the model predictions with both our, and non-UK expert parameterisation. The simplicity of the model, nature of the outputs, and the user-friendly interface makes it potentially suitable for policy, conservation and management work on multispecies interactions in a wide range of marine ecosystems

Finding a moral homeground: appropriately critical religious education and transmission of spiritual values

Values-inspired issues remain an important part of the British school curriculum. Avoiding moral relativism while fostering enthusiasm for spiritual values and applying them to non-curricular learning such as school ethos or children's home lives are challenges where spiritual, moral, social and cultural (SMSC) development might benefit from leadership by critical religious education (RE). Whether the school's model of spirituality is that of an individual spiritual tradition (schools of a particular religious character) or universal pluralistic religiosity (schools of plural religious character), the pedagogy of RE thought capable of leading SMSC development would be the dialogical approach with examples of successful implementation described by Gates, Ipgrave and Skeie. Marton's phenomenography, is thought to provide a valuable framework to allow the teacher to be appropriately critical in the transmission of spiritual values in schools of a particular religious character as evidenced by Hella's work in Lutheran schools

Analysis of LIGO data for gravitational waves from binary neutron stars

We report on a search for gravitational waves from coalescing compact binary systems in the Milky Way and the Magellanic Clouds. The analysis uses data taken by two of the three LIGO interferometers during the first LIGO science run and illustrates a method of setting upper limits on inspiral event rates using interferometer data. The analysis pipeline is described with particular attention to data selection and coincidence between the two interferometers. We establish an observational upper limit of $\mathcal{R}<$1.7 \times 10^{2}$per year per Milky Way Equivalent Galaxy (MWEG), with 90coalescence rate of binary systems in which each component has a mass in the range 1--3$M_\odot$.Comment: 17 pages, 9 figure

A conserved fungal glycosyltransferase facilitates pathogenesis of plants by enabling hyphal growth on solid surfaces

Article Authors Metrics Comments Related Content Abstract Author summary Introduction Results and discussion Conclusions Methods Supporting information Acknowledgments References Reader Comments (0) Media Coverage (0) Figures Abstract Pathogenic fungi must extend filamentous hyphae across solid surfaces to cause diseases of plants. However, the full inventory of genes which support this is incomplete and many may be currently concealed due to their essentiality for the hyphal growth form. During a random T-DNA mutagenesis screen performed on the pleomorphic wheat (Triticum aestivum) pathogen Zymoseptoria tritici, we acquired a mutant unable to extend hyphae specifically when on solid surfaces. In contrast “yeast-like” growth, and all other growth forms, were unaffected. The inability to extend surface hyphae resulted in a complete loss of virulence on plants. The affected gene encoded a predicted type 2 glycosyltransferase (ZtGT2). Analysis of >800 genomes from taxonomically diverse fungi highlighted a generally widespread, but discontinuous, distribution of ZtGT2 orthologues, and a complete absence of any similar proteins in non-filamentous ascomycete yeasts. Deletion mutants of the ZtGT2 orthologue in the taxonomically un-related fungus Fusarium graminearum were also severely impaired in hyphal growth and non-pathogenic on wheat ears. ZtGT2 expression increased during filamentous growth and electron microscopy on deletion mutants (ΔZtGT2) suggested the protein functions to maintain the outermost surface of the fungal cell wall. Despite this, adhesion to leaf surfaces was unaffected in ΔZtGT2 mutants and global RNAseq-based gene expression profiling highlighted that surface-sensing and protein secretion was also largely unaffected. However, ΔZtGT2 mutants constitutively overexpressed several transmembrane and secreted proteins, including an important LysM-domain chitin-binding virulence effector, Zt3LysM. ZtGT2 likely functions in the synthesis of a currently unknown, potentially minor but widespread, extracellular or outer cell wall polysaccharide which plays a key role in facilitating many interactions between plants and fungi by enabling hyphal growth on solid matrices

Effects of sleep deprivation on neural functioning: an integrative review

Sleep deprivation has a broad variety of effects on human performance and neural functioning that manifest themselves at different levels of description. On a macroscopic level, sleep deprivation mainly affects executive functions, especially in novel tasks. Macroscopic and mesoscopic effects of sleep deprivation on brain activity include reduced cortical responsiveness to incoming stimuli, reflecting reduced attention. On a microscopic level, sleep deprivation is associated with increased levels of adenosine, a neuromodulator that has a general inhibitory effect on neural activity. The inhibition of cholinergic nuclei appears particularly relevant, as the associated decrease in cortical acetylcholine seems to cause effects of sleep deprivation on macroscopic brain activity. In general, however, the relationships between the neural effects of sleep deprivation across observation scales are poorly understood and uncovering these relationships should be a primary target in future research

Cross-ancestry genome-wide association analysis of corneal thickness strengthens link between complex and Mendelian eye diseases

Central corneal thickness (CCT) is a highly heritable trait associated with complex eye diseases such as keratoconus and glaucoma. We perform a genome-wide association meta-analysis of CCT and identify 19 novel regions. In addition to adding support for known connective tissue-related pathways, pathway analyses uncover previously unreported gene sets. Remarkably, >20% of the CCT-loci are near or within Mendelian disorder genes. These included FBN1, ADAMTS2 and TGFB2 which associate with connective tissue disorders (Marfan, Ehlers-Danlos and Loeys-Dietz syndromes), and the LUM-DCN-KERA gene complex involved in myopia, corneal dystrophies and cornea plana. Using index CCT-increasing variants, we find a significant inverse correlation in effect sizes between CCT and keratoconus (r =-0.62, P = 5.30 × 10-5) but not between CCT and primary open-angle glaucoma (r =-0.17, P = 0.2). Our findings provide evidence for shared genetic influences between CCT and keratoconus, and implicate candidate genes acting in collagen and extracellular matrix regulation

Search for gravitational waves from Scorpius X-1 in the second Advanced LIGO observing run with an improved hidden Markov model

We present results from a semicoherent search for continuous gravitational waves from the low-mass x-ray binary Scorpius X-1, using a hidden Markov model (HMM) to track spin wandering. This search improves on previous HMM-based searches of LIGO data by using an improved frequency domain matched filter, the J-statistic, and by analyzing data from Advanced LIGO's second observing run. In the frequency range searched, from 60 to 650 Hz, we find no evidence of gravitational radiation. At 194.6 Hz, the most sensitive search frequency, we report an upper limit on gravitational wave strain (at 95% confidence) of h095%=3.47×10-25 when marginalizing over source inclination angle. This is the most sensitive search for Scorpius X-1, to date, that is specifically designed to be robust in the presence of spin wandering. © 2019 American Physical Society