Modelling the recent historical impacts of atmospheric CO2 and climate change on Mediterranean vegetation

During the past century, annual mean temperature has increased by 0.75 degrees C and precipitation has shown marked variation throughout the Mediterranean basin. These historical climate changes may have had significant, but presently undefined, impacts on the productivity and structure of sclerophyllous shrubland, an important vegetation type in the region. We used a vegetation model for this functional type to examine climate change impacts, and their interaction with the concurrent historical rise in atmospheric CO2. Using only climate and soil texture as data inputs, model. predictions showed good agreement with observations of seasonal and regional variation in leaf and canopy physiology, net primary productivity (NPP), leaf area index (LAI) and soil water. Model simulations for shrubland sites indicated that potential NPP has risen by 25% and LAI by 7% during the past century, although the absolute increase in LAI was small. Sensitivity analysis suggested that the increase in atmospheric CO2 since 1900 was the primary cause of these changes, and that simulated climate change alone had negative impacts on both NPP and LAI. Effects of rising CO2 were mediated by significant increases in the efficiency of water-use in NPP throughout the region, as a consequence of the direct effect of CO2 on leaf gas exchange. This increase in efficiency compensated for limitation of NPP by drought, except in areas where drought was most severe. However, while water was used more efficiently, total canopy water loss rose slightly or remained unaffected in model simulations, because increases in LAI with CO2 counteracted the effects of reduced stomatal conductance on transpiration. Model simulations for the Mediterranean region indicate that the recent rise in atmospheric CO2 may already have had significant impacts on productivity, structure and water relations of sclerophyllous shrub vegetation, which tended to offset the detrimental effects of climate change in the region

Nonequilibrium charge density wave ordering from anomalous velocity in itinerant helical magnets

The Karplus-Luttinger anomalous velocity is shown to lead to electric-field-induced charge accumulation in nearly ferromagnetic noncollinear magnets with itinerant electrons, like $MnSi$. For helical magnetic ordering, the balance between this accumulation and the Coulomb interaction leads to a nonequilibrium charge density wave state with the period of the helix, even when such accumulation is forbidden by an approximate gauge-like symmetry in the absence of electric field. We compute the strength of such charge accumulation as an example of how unexpected many-electron physics is induced by the inclusion of the one-electron Karplus-Luttinger term whenever the local exchange field felt by conduction electrons does not satisfy the current-free Maxwell equations.Comment: 5 pages and 1 figur

Ab initio and finite-temperature molecular dynamics studies of lattice resistance in tantalum

This manuscript explores the apparent discrepancy between experimental data and theoretical calculations of the lattice resistance of bcc tantalum. We present the first results for the temperature dependence of the Peierls stress in this system and the first ab initio calculation of the zero-temperature Peierls stress to employ periodic boundary conditions, which are those best suited to the study of metallic systems at the electron-structure level. Our ab initio value for the Peierls stress is over five times larger than current extrapolations of experimental lattice resistance to zero-temperature. Although we do find that the common techniques for such extrapolation indeed tend to underestimate the zero-temperature limit, the amount of the underestimation which we observe is only 10-20%, leaving open the possibility that mechanisms other than the simple Peierls stress are important in controlling the process of low temperature slip.Comment: 12 pages and 9 figure

Smartphone Apps for Measuring Human Health and Climate Change Co-Benefits: A Comparison and Quality Rating of Available Apps.

BACKGROUND: Climate change and the burden of noncommunicable diseases are major global challenges. Opportunities exist to investigate health and climate change co-benefits through a shift from motorized to active transport (walking and cycling) and a shift in dietary patterns away from a globalized diet to reduced consumption of meat and energy dense foods. Given the ubiquitous use and proliferation of smartphone apps, an opportunity exists to use this technology to capture individual travel and dietary behavior and the associated impact on the environment and health. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study is to identify, describe the features, and rate the quality of existing smartphone apps which capture personal travel and dietary behavior and simultaneously estimate the carbon cost and potential health consequences of these actions. METHODS: The Google Play and Apple App Stores were searched between October 19 and November 6, 2015, and a secondary Google search using the apps filter was conducted between August 8 and September 18, 2016. Eligible apps were required to estimate the carbon cost of personal behaviors with the potential to include features to maximize health outcomes. The quality of included apps was assessed by 2 researchers using the Mobile Application Rating Scale (MARS). RESULTS: Out of 7213 results, 40 apps were identified and rated. Multiple travel-related apps were identified, however no apps solely focused on the carbon impact or health consequences of dietary behavior. None of the rated apps provided sufficient information on the health consequences of travel and dietary behavior. Some apps included features to maximize participant engagement and encourage behavior change towards reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Most apps were rated as acceptable quality as determined by the MARS; 1 was of poor quality and 10 apps were of good quality. Interrater reliability of the 2 evaluators was excellent (ICC=0.94, 95% CI 0.87-0.97). CONCLUSIONS: Existing apps capturing travel and dietary behavior and the associated health and environmental impact are of mixed quality. Most apps do not include all desirable features or provide sufficient health information. Further research is needed to determine the potential of smartphone apps to evoke behavior change resulting in climate change and health co-benefits

Olive phenology as a sensitive indicator of future climatic warming in the Mediterranean

Experimental and modelling work suggests a strong dependence of olive flowering date on spring temperatures. Since airborne pollen concentrations reflect the flowering phenology of olive populations within a radius of 50 km, they may be a sensitive regional indicator of climatic warming. We assessed this potential sensitivity with phenology models fitted to flowering dates inferred from maximum airborne pollen data. Of four models tested, a thermal time model gave the best fit for Montpellier, France, and was the most effective at the regional scale, providing reasonable predictions for 10 sites in the western Mediterranean. This model was forced with replicated future temperature simulations for the western Mediterranean from a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM). The GCM temperatures rose by 4·5 °C between 1990 and 2099 with a 1% per year increase in greenhouse gases, and modelled flowering date advanced at a rate of 6·2 d per °C. The results indicated that this long-term regional trend in phenology might be statistically significant as early as 2030, but with marked spatial variation in magnitude, with the calculated flowering date between the 1990s and 2030s advancing by 3–23 d. Future monitoring of airborne olive pollen may therefore provide an early biological indicator of climatic warming in the Mediterranean

Silicon isotopes highlight the role of glaciated fjords in modifying coastal waters

Glaciers and ice sheets are experiencing rapid warming under current climatic change and there is increasing evidence that glacial meltwaters provide key dissolved and dissolvable amorphous nutrients to downstream ecosystems. However, large debate exists around the fate of these nutrients within complex and heterogenous fjord environments, where biogeochemical cycling is still often poorly understood. We combine silicon (Si) concentration data with isotopic compositions to better understand silicon cycling and export in two contrasting fjordic environments in south-west Greenland. We show that both fjords have isotopically light dissolved silicon (DSi) within surface waters, despite an apparently rapid biological drawdown of DSi with increasing salinity. We hypothesise that such observations cannot be explained by simple water mass mixing processes, and postulate that an isotopically light source of Si, most likely glacially-derived amorphous silica (ASi), is responsible for further modifying these coastal waters within the fjords and beyond. Fjord to coastal exchange is likely a relatively slow process (several months), and thus is less impacted by short-term (< seasonal) changes of glacial meltwater input into the fjord, which has implications when considering the role of glacial meltwaters on nutrient export beyond the shelf break. We highlight the need for isotopic studies combined with dissolved and particulate nutrient concentration analysis to provide a more detailed analysis into the biogeochemical cycles within these highly dynamic fjord environments

Determination of the neutron electric form factor in quasielastic scattering of polarized electrons from polarized 3He

We report a measurement of the asymmetry in spin-dependent quasielastic scattering of longitudinally polarized electrons from a polarized 3He gas target. The asymmetry is measured at kinematics sensitive to the transverse-longitudinal response function RTL(Q2,ω). The value of the neutron electric form factor GEn(Q2=0.16 (GeV/c2))=+0.070±0.100±0.035 is extracted from the asymmetry using a Faddeev calculation of the 3He wave function

Application of non-HDL cholesterol for population-based cardiovascular risk stratification: results from the Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium.

BACKGROUND: The relevance of blood lipid concentrations to long-term incidence of cardiovascular disease and the relevance of lipid-lowering therapy for cardiovascular disease outcomes is unclear. We investigated the cardiovascular disease risk associated with the full spectrum of bloodstream non-HDL cholesterol concentrations. We also created an easy-to-use tool to estimate the long-term probabilities for a cardiovascular disease event associated with non-HDL cholesterol and modelled its risk reduction by lipid-lowering treatment. METHODS: In this risk-evaluation and risk-modelling study, we used Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium data from 19 countries across Europe, Australia, and North America. Individuals without prevalent cardiovascular disease at baseline and with robust available data on cardiovascular disease outcomes were included. The primary composite endpoint of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was defined as the occurrence of the coronary heart disease event or ischaemic stroke. Sex-specific multivariable analyses were computed using non-HDL cholesterol categories according to the European guideline thresholds, adjusted for age, sex, cohort, and classical modifiable cardiovascular risk factors. In a derivation and validation design, we created a tool to estimate the probabilities of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, dependent on age, sex, and risk factors, and the associated modelled risk reduction, assuming a 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol. FINDINGS: Of the 524 444 individuals in the 44 cohorts in the Consortium database, we identified 398 846 individuals belonging to 38 cohorts (184 055 [48·7%] women; median age 51·0 years [IQR 40·7-59·7]). 199 415 individuals were included in the derivation cohort (91 786 [48·4%] women) and 199 431 (92 269 [49·1%] women) in the validation cohort. During a maximum follow-up of 43·6 years (median 13·5 years, IQR 7·0-20·1), 54 542 cardiovascular endpoints occurred. Incidence curve analyses showed progressively higher 30-year cardiovascular disease event-rates for increasing non-HDL cholesterol categories (from 7·7% for non-HDL cholesterol <2·6 mmol/L to 33·7% for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 12·8% to 43·6% in men; p<0·0001). Multivariable adjusted Cox models with non-HDL cholesterol lower than 2·6 mmol/L as reference showed an increase in the association between non-HDL cholesterol concentration and cardiovascular disease for both sexes (from hazard ratio 1·1, 95% CI 1·0-1·3 for non-HDL cholesterol 2·6 to <3·7 mmol/L to 1·9, 1·6-2·2 for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 1·1, 1·0-1·3 to 2·3, 2·0-2·5 in men). The derived tool allowed the estimation of cardiovascular disease event probabilities specific for non-HDL cholesterol with high comparability between the derivation and validation cohorts as reflected by smooth calibration curves analyses and a root mean square error lower than 1% for the estimated probabilities of cardiovascular disease. A 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol concentrations was associated with reduced risk of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, and this risk reduction was greater the earlier cholesterol concentrations were reduced. INTERPRETATION: Non-HDL cholesterol concentrations in blood are strongly associated with long-term risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. We provide a simple tool for individual long-term risk assessment and the potential benefit of early lipid-lowering intervention. These data could be useful for physician-patient communication about primary prevention strategies. FUNDING: EU Framework Programme, UK Medical Research Council, and German Centre for Cardiovascular Research

Large-scale whole-exome sequencing association studies identify rare functional variants influencing serum urate levels.

Elevated serum urate levels can cause gout, an excruciating disease with suboptimal treatment. Previous GWAS identified common variants with modest effects on serum urate. Here we report large-scale whole-exome sequencing association studies of serum urate and kidney function among ≤19,517 European ancestry and African-American individuals. We identify aggregate associations of low-frequency damaging variants in the urate transporters SLC22A12 (URAT1; p = 1.3 × 10 &lt;sup&gt;-56&lt;/sup&gt; ) and SLC2A9 (p = 4.5 × 10 &lt;sup&gt;-7&lt;/sup&gt; ). Gout risk in rare SLC22A12 variant carriers is halved (OR = 0.5, p = 4.9 × 10 &lt;sup&gt;-3&lt;/sup&gt; ). Selected rare variants in SLC22A12 are validated in transport studies, confirming three as loss-of-function (R325W, R405C, and T467M) and illustrating the therapeutic potential of the new URAT1-blocker lesinurad. In SLC2A9, mapping of rare variants of large effects onto the predicted protein structure reveals new residues that may affect urate binding. These findings provide new insights into the genetic architecture of serum urate, and highlight molecular targets in SLC22A12 and SLC2A9 for lowering serum urate and preventing gout

The composition of the protosolar disk and the formation conditions for comets

Conditions in the protosolar nebula have left their mark in the composition of cometary volatiles, thought to be some of the most pristine material in the solar system. Cometary compositions represent the end point of processing that began in the parent molecular cloud core and continued through the collapse of that core to form the protosun and the solar nebula, and finally during the evolution of the solar nebula itself as the cometary bodies were accreting. Disentangling the effects of the various epochs on the final composition of a comet is complicated. But comets are not the only source of information about the solar nebula. Protostellar disks around young stars similar to the protosun provide a way of investigating the evolution of disks similar to the solar nebula while they are in the process of evolving to form their own solar systems. In this way we can learn about the physical and chemical conditions under which comets formed, and about the types of dynamical processing that shaped the solar system we see today. This paper summarizes some recent contributions to our understanding of both cometary volatiles and the composition, structure and evolution of protostellar disks.Comment: To appear in Space Science Reviews. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11214-015-0167-