390 research outputs found
Warning signs for stabilizing global CO2 emissions
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels and industry comprise ~90% of all CO2 emissions from human activities. For the last three years, such emissions were stable, despite continuing growth in the global economy. Many positive trends contributed to this unique hiatus, including reduced coal use in China and elsewhere, continuing gains in energy efficiency, and a boom in low-carbon renewables such as wind and solar. However, the temporary hiatus appears to have ended in 2017. For 2017, we project emissions growth of 2.0% (range: 0.8%â3.0%) from 2016 levels (leap-year adjusted), reaching a record 36.8â±â2 Gt CO2. Economic projections suggest further emissions growth in 2018 is likely. Time is running out on our ability to keep global average temperature increases below 2 °C and, even more immediately, anything close to 1.5â°C
Evaluating Oceanic Uptake of Atmospheric CCl4: A Combined Analysis of Model Simulations and Observations
We provide new estimates of the airâsea flux of CCl4 using simulations from a global ocean biogeochemistry model (NEMOâPlankTOM) in combination with depthâresolved CCl4 observations from global oceanic databases. Estimates of global oceanic CCl4 uptake are derived from a range of model analyses, including prescribed parameterizations using reported values on hydrolysis and degradation, and analyses optimized using the global observational databases. We evaluate the sensitivity of our results to uncertainties in airâsea gas exchange parameterization, estimation period, and circulation processes. Our best constrained estimate of ocean CCl4 uptake for the period 1996â2000 is 20.1 Gg/year (range 16.6â22.7), corresponding to estimates of the partial atmospheric lifetime with respect to ocean uptake of 124 (110â150) years. This new oceanic lifetime implies higher emissions of CCl4 than currently estimated and therefore a larger missing atmospheric source of CCl4
Five decades of northern land carbon uptake revealed by the interhemispheric CO2 gradient
The global land and ocean carbon sinks have increased proportionally with increasing carbon dioxide emissions during the past decades 1 . It is thought that Northern Hemisphere lands make a dominant contribution to the global land carbon sink 2â7 ; however, the long-term trend of the northern land sink remains uncertain. Here, using measurements of the interhemispheric gradient of atmospheric carbon dioxide from 1958 to 2016, we show that the northern land sink remained stable between the 1960s and the late 1980s, then increased by 0.5 ± 0.4 petagrams of carbon per year during the 1990s and by 0.6 ± 0.5 petagrams of carbon per year during the 2000s. The increase of the northern land sink in the 1990s accounts for 65% of the increase in the global land carbon flux during that period. The subsequent increase in the 2000s is larger than the increase in the global land carbon flux, suggesting a coincident decrease of carbon uptake in the Southern Hemisphere. Comparison of our findings with the simulations of an ensemble of terrestrial carbon models 5,8 over the same period suggests that the decadal change in the northern land sink between the 1960s and the 1990s can be explained by a combination of increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate variability and changes in land cover. However, the increase during the 2000s is underestimated by all models, which suggests the need for improved consideration of changes in drivers such as nitrogen deposition, diffuse light and land-use change. Overall, our findings underscore the importance of Northern Hemispheric land as a carbon sink
Five decades of northern land carbon uptake revealed by the interhemispheric CO2 gradient
The global land and ocean carbon sinks have increased proportionally with increasing carbon dioxide emissions during the past decades 1 . It is thought that Northern Hemisphere lands make a dominant contribution to the global land carbon sink 2â7 ; however, the long-term trend of the northern land sink remains uncertain. Here, using measurements of the interhemispheric gradient of atmospheric carbon dioxide from 1958 to 2016, we show that the northern land sink remained stable between the 1960s and the late 1980s, then increased by 0.5 ± 0.4 petagrams of carbon per year during the 1990s and by 0.6 ± 0.5 petagrams of carbon per year during the 2000s. The increase of the northern land sink in the 1990s accounts for 65% of the increase in the global land carbon flux during that period. The subsequent increase in the 2000s is larger than the increase in the global land carbon flux, suggesting a coincident decrease of carbon uptake in the Southern Hemisphere. Comparison of our findings with the simulations of an ensemble of terrestrial carbon models 5,8 over the same period suggests that the decadal change in the northern land sink between the 1960s and the 1990s can be explained by a combination of increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate variability and changes in land cover. However, the increase during the 2000s is underestimated by all models, which suggests the need for improved consideration of changes in drivers such as nitrogen deposition, diffuse light and land-use change. Overall, our findings underscore the importance of Northern Hemispheric land as a carbon sink
China CO2 emission accounts 1997â2015
China is the worldâs top energy consumer and CO2 emitter, accounting for 30% of global emissions. Compiling an accurate accounting of Chinaâs CO2 emissions is the first step in implementing reduction policies. However, no annual, officially published emissions data exist for China. The current emissions estimated by academic institutes and scholars exhibit great discrepancies. The gap between the different emissions estimates is approximately equal to the total emissions of the Russian Federation (the 4th highest emitter globally) in 2011. In this study, we constructed the time-series of CO2 emission inventories for China and its 30 provinces. We followed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions accounting method with a territorial administrative scope. The inventories include energy-related emissions (17 fossil fuels in 47 sectors) and process-related emissions (cement production). The first version of our dataset presents emission inventories from 1997 to 2015. We will update the dataset annually. The uniformly formatted emission inventories provide data support for further emission-related research as well as emissions reduction policy-making in China
Online Monitoring of the Osiris Reactor with the Nucifer Neutrino Detector
Originally designed as a new nuclear reactor monitoring device, the Nucifer
detector has successfully detected its first neutrinos. We provide the second
shortest baseline measurement of the reactor neutrino flux. The detection of
electron antineutrinos emitted in the decay chains of the fission products,
combined with reactor core simulations, provides an new tool to assess both the
thermal power and the fissile content of the whole nuclear core and could be
used by the Inter- national Agency for Atomic Energy (IAEA) to enhance the
Safeguards of civil nuclear reactors. Deployed at only 7.2m away from the
compact Osiris research reactor core (70MW) operating at the Saclay research
centre of the French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA),
the experiment also exhibits a well-suited configuration to search for a new
short baseline oscillation. We report the first results of the Nucifer
experiment, describing the performances of the 0.85m3 detector remotely
operating at a shallow depth equivalent to 12m of water and under intense
background radiation conditions. Based on 145 (106) days of data with reactor
ON (OFF), leading to the detection of an estimated 40760 electron
antineutrinos, the mean number of detected antineutrinos is 281 +- 7(stat) +-
18(syst) electron antineutrinos/day, in agreement with the prediction 277(23)
electron antineutrinos/day. Due the the large background no conclusive results
on the existence of light sterile neutrinos could be derived, however. As a
first societal application we quantify how antineutrinos could be used for the
Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement.Comment: 22 pages, 16 figures - Version
A new evaluation of the uncertainty associated with CDIAC estimates of fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission
Three uncertainty assessments associated with the global total of carbon dioxide emitted from fossil fuel use and cement production are presented. Each assessment has its own strengths and weaknesses and none give a full uncertainty assessment of the emission estimates. This approach grew out of the lack of independent measurements at the spatial and temporal scales of interest. Issues of dependent and independent data are considered as well as the temporal and spatial relationships of the data. The result is a multifaceted examination of the uncertainty associated with fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission estimates. The three assessments collectively give a range that spans from 1.0 to 13% (2 Ï). Greatly simplifying the assessments give a global fossil fuel carbon dioxide uncertainty value of 8.4% (2 Ï). In the largest context presented, the determination of fossil fuel emission uncertainty is important for a better understanding of the global carbon cycle and its implications for the physical, economic and political world
Role of zooplankton dynamics for Southern Ocean phytoplankton biomass and global biogeochemical cycles
Global ocean biogeochemistry models currently employed in climate change projections use highly simplified representations of pelagic food webs. These food webs do not necessarily include critical pathways by which ecosystems interact with ocean biogeochemistry and climate. Here we present a global biogeochemical model which incorporates ecosystem dynamics based on the representation of ten plankton functional types (PFTs); six types of phytoplankton, three types of zooplankton, and heterotrophic bacteria. We improved the representation of zooplankton dynamics in our model through (a) the explicit inclusion of large, slow-growing zooplankton, and (b) the introduction of trophic cascades among the three zooplankton types. We use the model to quantitatively assess the relative roles of iron vs. grazing in determining phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean High Nutrient Low Chlorophyll (HNLC) region during summer. When model simulations do not represent crustacean macrozooplankton grazing, they systematically overestimate Southern Ocean chlorophyll biomass during the summer, even when there was no iron deposition from dust. When model simulations included the developments of the zooplankton component, the simulation of phytoplankton biomass improved and the high chlorophyll summer bias in the Southern Ocean HNLC region largely disappeared. Our model results suggest that the observed low phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean during summer is primarily explained by the dynamics of the Southern Ocean zooplankton community rather than iron limitation. This result has implications for the representation of global biogeochemical cycles in models as zooplankton faecal pellets sink rapidly and partly control the carbon export to the intermediate and deep ocean
Comment on Qian et al. 2008: La Niña and El Niño composites of atmospheric CO2 change
It is well known that interannual extremes in the rate of change of atmospheric CO2 are strongly influenced by the occurrence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Qian et al. presented ENSO composites of atmospheric CO2 changes. We show that their composites do not reflect the atmospheric changes that are most relevant to understanding the role of ENSO on atmospheric CO2 variability. We present here composites of atmospheric CO2 change that differ markedly from those of Qian et al., and reveal previously unreported asymmetries between the effects on the global carbon system of El Niño and La Niña events. The calendar-year timing differs; La Niña changes in atmospheric CO2 typically occur primarily over SeptemberâMay, while El Niño changes occur primarily over DecemberâAugust. And the net concentration change is quite different; La Niña changes are about half the size of El Niño changes. These results illustrate new aspects of the ENSO/global carbon budget interaction and provide useful global-scale benchmarks for the evaluation of Earth System Model studies of the carbon system
Building a Social Mandate for Climate Action: Lessons from COVID-19
The COVID-19 imposed lockdown has led to a number of temporary environmental side effects (reduced global emissions, cleaner air, less noise), that the climate community has aspired to achieve over a number of decades. However, these benefits have been achieved at a massive cost to welfare and the economy. This commentary draws lessons from the COVID-19 crisis for climate change. It discusses whether there are more sustainable ways of achieving these benefits, as part of a more desirable, low carbon resilient future, in a more planned, inclusive and less disruptive way. In order to achieve this, we argue for a clearer social contract between citizens and the state. We discuss how COVID-19 has demonstrated that behaviours can change abruptly, that these changes come at a cost, that we need a âsocial mandateâ to ensure these changes remain in the long-term, and that science plays an important role in informing this process. We suggest that deliberative engagement mechanisms, such as citizensâ assemblies and juries, could be a powerful way to build a social mandate for climate action post-COVID-19. This would enable behaviour changes to become more accepted, embedded and bearable in the long-term and provide the basis for future climate action
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