Sequential item pricing for unlimited supply

We investigate the extent to which price updates can increase the revenue of a seller with little prior information on demand. We study prior-free revenue maximization for a seller with unlimited supply of n item types facing m myopic buyers present for k < log n days. For the static (k = 1) case, Balcan et al. [2] show that one random item price (the same on each item) yields revenue within a \Theta(log m + log n) factor of optimum and this factor is tight. We define the hereditary maximizers property of buyer valuations (satisfied by any multi-unit or gross substitutes valuation) that is sufficient for a significant improvement of the approximation factor in the dynamic (k > 1) setting. Our main result is a non-increasing, randomized, schedule of k equal item prices with expected revenue within a O((log m + log n) / k) factor of optimum for private valuations with hereditary maximizers. This factor is almost tight: we show that any pricing scheme over k days has a revenue approximation factor of at least (log m + log n) / (3k). We obtain analogous matching lower and upper bounds of \Theta((log n) / k) if all valuations have the same maximum. We expect our upper bound technique to be of broader interest; for example, it can significantly improve the result of Akhlaghpour et al. [1]. We also initiate the study of revenue maximization given allocative externalities (i.e. influences) between buyers with combinatorial valuations. We provide a rather general model of positive influence of others' ownership of items on a buyer's valuation. For affine, submodular externalities and valuations with hereditary maximizers we present an influence-and-exploit (Hartline et al. [13]) marketing strategy based on our algorithm for private valuations. This strategy preserves our approximation factor, despite an affine increase (due to externalities) in the optimum revenue.Comment: 18 pages, 1 figur

Randomized Revenue Monotone Mechanisms for Online Advertising

Online advertising is the main source of revenue for many Internet firms. A central component of online advertising is the underlying mechanism that selects and prices the winning ads for a given ad slot. In this paper we study designing a mechanism for the Combinatorial Auction with Identical Items (CAII) in which we are interested in selling $k$ identical items to a group of bidders each demanding a certain number of items between $1$ and $k$. CAII generalizes important online advertising scenarios such as image-text and video-pod auctions [GK14]. In image-text auction we want to fill an advertising slot on a publisher's web page with either $k$ text-ads or a single image-ad and in video-pod auction we want to fill an advertising break of $k$ seconds with video-ads of possibly different durations. Our goal is to design truthful mechanisms that satisfy Revenue Monotonicity (RM). RM is a natural constraint which states that the revenue of a mechanism should not decrease if the number of participants increases or if a participant increases her bid. [GK14] showed that no deterministic RM mechanism can attain PoRM of less than $\ln(k)$ for CAII, i.e., no deterministic mechanism can attain more than $\frac{1}{\ln(k)}$ fraction of the maximum social welfare. [GK14] also design a mechanism with PoRM of $O(\ln^2(k))$ for CAII. In this paper, we seek to overcome the impossibility result of [GK14] for deterministic mechanisms by using the power of randomization. We show that by using randomization, one can attain a constant PoRM. In particular, we design a randomized RM mechanism with PoRM of $3$ for CAII

Theory of collective opinion shifts: from smooth trends to abrupt swings

We unveil collective effects induced by imitation and social pressure by analyzing data from three different sources: birth rates, sales of cell phones and the drop of applause in concert halls. We interpret our results within the framework of the Random Field Ising Model, which is a threshold model for collective decisions accounting both for agent heterogeneity and social imitation. Changes of opinion can occur either abruptly or continuously, depending on the importance of herding effects. The main prediction of the model is a scaling relation between the height h of the speed of variation peak and its width $w$ of the form h ~ w^{-kappa}, with kappa = 2/3 for well connected populations. Our three sets of data are compatible with such a prediction, with kappa ~ 0.62 for birth rates, kappa ~ 0.71 for cell phones and kappa ~ 0.64 for clapping. In this last case, we in fact observe that some clapping samples end discontinuously (w=0), as predicted by the model for strong enough imitation.Comment: 11 pages, 8 figure

Influence Diffusion in Social Networks under Time Window Constraints

We study a combinatorial model of the spread of influence in networks that generalizes existing schemata recently proposed in the literature. In our model, agents change behaviors/opinions on the basis of information collected from their neighbors in a time interval of bounded size whereas agents are assumed to have unbounded memory in previously studied scenarios. In our mathematical framework, one is given a network $G=(V,E)$, an integer value $t(v)$ for each node $v\in V$, and a time window size $\lambda$. The goal is to determine a small set of nodes (target set) that influences the whole graph. The spread of influence proceeds in rounds as follows: initially all nodes in the target set are influenced; subsequently, in each round, any uninfluenced node $v$ becomes influenced if the number of its neighbors that have been influenced in the previous $\lambda$ rounds is greater than or equal to $t(v)$. We prove that the problem of finding a minimum cardinality target set that influences the whole network $G$ is hard to approximate within a polylogarithmic factor. On the positive side, we design exact polynomial time algorithms for paths, rings, trees, and complete graphs.Comment: An extended abstract of a preliminary version of this paper appeared in: Proceedings of 20th International Colloquium on Structural Information and Communication Complexity (Sirocco 2013), Lectures Notes in Computer Science vol. 8179, T. Moscibroda and A.A. Rescigno (Eds.), pp. 141-152, 201

Why is order flow so persistent?

Order flow in equity markets is remarkably persistent in the sense that order signs (to buy or sell) are positively autocorrelated out to time lags of tens of thousands of orders, corresponding to many days. Two possible explanations are herding, corresponding to positive correlation in the behavior of different investors, or order splitting, corresponding to positive autocorrelation in the behavior of single investors. We investigate this using order flow data from the London Stock Exchange for which we have membership identifiers. By formulating models for herding and order splitting, as well as models for brokerage choice, we are able to overcome the distortion introduced by brokerage. On timescales of less than a few hours the persistence of order flow is overwhelmingly due to splitting rather than herding. We also study the properties of brokerage order flow and show that it is remarkably consistent both cross-sectionally and longitudinally.Comment: 42 pages, 15 figure

A novel technique for the treatment of post operative retro-rectal haematoma: two case reports

Rectal bleeding following any form of rectal surgery is a well recognised complication 1, 2, 3 & 4. However retro-rectal bleeding and tracking which then presents as rectal bleeding has not been reported in the literature. We describe a novel way of dealing with this technically difficult post-operative complication

Information and ambiguity: herd and contrarian behaviour in financial markets

“The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11238-012-9334-3”The paper studies the impact of informational ambiguity on behalf of informed traders on history-dependent price behaviour in a model of sequential trading in nancial markets. Following Chateauneuf, Eichberger and Grant (2006), we use neo-additive capacities to model ambiguity. Such ambiguity and attitudes to it can engender herd and contrarian behaviour, and also cause the market to break down. The latter, herd and contrarian behaviour, can be reduced by the existence of a bid-ask spread.Research in part funded by ESRC grant RES-000-22-0650

An Experimental Study of Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics

As cryptocurrencies gain popularity and credibility, marketplaces for cryptocurrencies are growing in importance. Understanding the dynamics of these markets can help to assess how viable the cryptocurrnency ecosystem is and how design choices affect market behavior. One existential threat to cryptocurrencies is dramatic fluctuations in traders' willingness to buy or sell. Using a novel experimental methodology, we conducted an online experiment to study how susceptible traders in these markets are to peer influence from trading behavior. We created bots that executed over one hundred thousand trades costing less than a penny each in 217 cryptocurrencies over the course of six months. We find that individual "buy" actions led to short-term increases in subsequent buy-side activity hundreds of times the size of our interventions. From a design perspective, we note that the design choices of the exchange we study may have promoted this and other peer influence effects, which highlights the potential social and economic impact of HCI in the design of digital institutions.Comment: CHI 201

Overthrowing the dictator: a game-theoretic approach to revolutions and media

A distinctive feature of recent revolutions was the key role of social media (e.g. Facebook, Twitter and YouTube). In this paper, we study its role in mobilization. We assume that social media allow potential participants to observe the individual participation decisions of others, while traditional mass media allow potential participants to see only the total number of people who participated before them. We show that when individuals’ willingness to revolt is publicly known, then both sorts of media foster a successful revolution. However, when willingness to revolt is private information, only social media ensure that a revolt succeeds, with mass media multiple outcomes are possible, one of which has individuals not participating in the revolt. This suggests that social media enhance the likelihood that a revolution triumphs more than traditional mass media