Derivation and validation of a prognostic model for postoperative risk stratification of critically ill patients with faecal peritonitis

Background Prognostic scores and models of illness severity are useful both clinically and for research. The aim of this study was to develop two prognostic models for the prediction of long-term (6 months) and 28-day mortality of postoperative critically ill patients with faecal peritonitis (FP). Methods Patients admitted to intensive care units with faecal peritonitis and recruited to the European GenOSept study were divided into a derivation and a geographical validation subset; patients subsequently recruited to the UK GAinS study were used for temporal validation. Using all 50 clinical and laboratory variables available on day 1 of critical care admission, Cox proportional hazards regression was fitted to select variables for inclusion in two prognostic models, using stepwise selection and nonparametric bootstrapping sampling techniques. Using Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AuROC) analysis, the performance of the models was compared to SOFA and APACHE II. Results Five variables (age, SOFA score, lowest temperature, highest heart rate, haematocrit) were entered into the prognostic models. The discriminatory performance of the 6-month prognostic model yielded an AuROC 0.81 (95% CI 0.76–0.86), 0.73 (95% CI 0.69–0.78) and 0.76 (95% CI 0.69–0.83) for the derivation, geographic and temporal external validation cohorts, respectively. The 28-day prognostic tool yielded an AuROC 0.82 (95% CI 0.77–0.88), 0.75 (95% CI 0.69–0.80) and 0.79 (95% CI 0.71–0.87) for the same cohorts. These AuROCs appeared consistently superior to those obtained with the SOFA and APACHE II scores alone. Conclusions The two prognostic models developed for 6-month and 28-day mortality prediction in critically ill septic patients with FP, in the postoperative phase, enhanced the day one SOFA score’s predictive utility by adding a few key variables: age, lowest recorded temperature, highest recorded heart rate and haematocrit. External validation of their predictive capability in larger cohorts is needed, before introduction of the proposed scores into clinical practice to inform decision making and the design of clinical trials

Effect of alirocumab on major adverse cardiovascular events according to renal function in patients with a recent acute coronary syndrome: Prespecified analysis from the ODYSSEY OUTCOMES randomized clinical trial

Aims Statins reduce cardiovascular risk in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and normal-to-moderately impaired renal function. It is not known whether proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors provide similar benefit across a range of renal function. We determined whether effects of the PCSK9 inhibitor alirocumab to reduce cardiovascular events and death after ACS are influenced by renal function. ................................................................................................................................................................................................... Methods ODYSSEY OUTCOMES compared alirocumab with placebo in patients with recent ACS and dyslipidaemia despite and results intensive statin treatment. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <30 mL/min/1.73 m was exclusionary. In 18 918 patients, baseline eGFR was 82.8 ± 17.6 mL/min/1.73 m , and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) was 92 ± 31 mg/dL. At 36 months, alirocumab decreased LDL-C by 48.5% vs. placebo but did not affect eGFR (P = 0.65). Overall, alirocumab reduced risk of the primary outcome (coronary heart disease death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, ischaemic stroke, or unstable angina requiring hospitalization) with fewer deaths. There was no interaction between continuous eGFR and treatment on the primary outcome or death (P = 0.14 and 0.59, respectively). Alirocumab reduced primary outcomes in patients with eGFR >_90 mL/min/1.73 m (n = 7470; hazard ratio 0.784, 95% confidence interval 0.670–0.919; P = 0.003) and 60 to <90 (n = 9326; 0.833, 0.731–0.949; P = 0.006), but not in those with eGFR < 60 (n = 2122; 0.974, 0.805–1.178; P = 0.784). Adverse events other than local injection-site reactions were similar in both groups across all categories of eGFR. ................................................................................................................................................................................................... Conclusions In patients with recent ACS, alirocumab was associated with fewer cardiovascular events and deaths across the range of renal function studied, with larger relative risk reductions in those with eGFR > 60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 2 2 2The trial was funded by Sanofi and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc

FGF receptor genes and breast cancer susceptibility: results from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium

Background:Breast cancer is one of the most common malignancies in women. Genome-wide association studies have identified FGFR2 as a breast cancer susceptibility gene. Common variation in other fibroblast growth factor (FGF) receptors might also modify risk. We tested this hypothesis by studying genotyped single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and imputed SNPs in FGFR1, FGFR3, FGFR4 and FGFRL1 in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Methods:Data were combined from 49 studies, including 53 835 cases and 50 156 controls, of which 89 050 (46 450 cases and 42 600 controls) were of European ancestry, 12 893 (6269 cases and 6624 controls) of Asian and 2048 (1116 cases and 932 controls) of African ancestry. Associations with risk of breast cancer, overall and by disease sub-type, were assessed using unconditional logistic regression. Results:Little evidence of association with breast cancer risk was observed for SNPs in the FGF receptor genes. The strongest evidence in European women was for rs743682 in FGFR3; the estimated per-allele odds ratio was 1.05 (95 confidence interval=1.02-1.09, P=0.0020), which is substantially lower than that observed for SNPs in FGFR2. Conclusion:Our results suggest that common variants in the other FGF receptors are not associated with risk of breast cancer to the degree observed for FGFR2. © 2014 Cancer Research UK

Anemia and adverse outcomes in a chronic obstructive pulmonary disease population with a high burden of comorbidities an analysis from SPIROMICS

Rationale: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a common cause of morbidity and associated with a significant burden of comorbidities. Although anemia is associated with adverse outcomes in COPD, its contribution to outcomes in individuals with other comorbid chronic diseases is not well understood. Objectives: This study examines the association of anemia with outcomes in a large, well-characterized COPD cohort, and attempts to understand the contribution of anemia to outcomes and phenotypes in individuals with other comorbidities. Methods: Participants with COPD from SPIROMICS (the Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study) were analyzed in adjusted models to determine the associations of normocytic anemia with clinical outcomes, computed tomographic measures, and biomarkers. Analysis was additionally performed to understand the independence and possible interactions related to cardiac and metabolic comorbidities. Results: A total of 1,789 individuals with COPD from SPIROMICS had data on hemoglobin, and of these 7.5% (n = 135) were found to have normocytic anemia. Anemic participants were older with worse airflow obstruction, a higher proportion of them were African Americans, and they had a higher burden of cardiac and metabolic comorbidities. Anemia was strongly associated with 6-minute walk distance (b, 261.43; 95% confidence interval [CI], 285.11 to 237.75), modified Medical Research Council dyspnea questionnaire (b, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.11-0.44), and St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (b, 3.90; 95% CI, 1.09-6.71), and these adjusted associations were stronger among those with two or more cardiac and metabolic comorbidities. Anemia was associated with higher levels of serum C-reactive protein, soluble receptor for advanced glycosylation endproducts, and epithelial cadherin-1, findings that persisted when in those with a high burden of comorbidities. Conclusions: Anemia is associated with worse exercise capacity, greater dyspnea, and greater disease severity among adults with COPD, particularly among those with comorbid chronic cardiac and metabolic diseases. The biomarkers found in anemic individuals suggest inflammation, lung tissue injury, and oxidative stress as possible pathways for the adverse correlations of anemia with outcomes in COPD; however, substantial further study is required to better understand these potential mechanisms

Cost-effectiveness of alirocumab in patients with acute coronary syndromes the ODYSSEY OUTCOMES trial

BACKGROUND Cholesterol reduction with proprotein convertase subtitisin-kexin type 9 inhibitors reduces ischemic events; however, the cost-effectiveness in statin-treated patients with recent acute coronary syndrome remains uncertain.OBJECTIVES This study sought to determine whether further cholesterol reduction with atirocumab would be cost-effective in patients with a recent acute coronary syndrome on optimal statin therapy.METHODS A cost-effectiveness model leveraging patient-level data from ODYSSEY OUTCOMES (Evaluation of Cardiovascular Outcomes After an Acute Coronary Syndrome During Treatment With Atirocumab) was developed to estimate costs and outcomes over a lifetime horizon. Patients (n = 18,924) had a recent acute coronary syndrome and were on high-intensity or maximum-tolerated statin therapy, with a baseline tow-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) level >= 70 mg/l, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol >= 100 mg/dl, or apotipoprotein B >= 80 mg/l. Atirocumab 75 mg or placebo was administered subcutaneously every 2 weeks. Atirocumab was blindly titrated to 150 mg if LDL-C remained >= 50 mg/dl or switched to placebo if 2 consecutive LDL-C levels were = 100 mg/dl.RESULTS Across the overall population recruited to the ODYSSEY OUTCOMES trial, using an annual treatment cost of US$5,850, the mean overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was US$92,200 per QALY (base case). The cost was US$41,800 per QALY in patients with baseline LDL-C >= 100 mg/dl, whereas in those with LDL-C >= 100 mg/dl the cost per QALY was US$299,400. Among patients with LDL-C a100 mg/dl, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios remained below US$100,000 per QALY across a wide variety of sensitivity analyses.CONCLUSIONS In patients with a recent acute coronary syndrome on optimal statin therapy, atirocumab improves cardiovascular outcomes at costs considered intermediate value, with good value in patients with baseline LDL-C mg/dt but less economic value with LDL-C >= 100 mg/dl. (Evaluation of Cardiovascular Outcomes After an Acute Coronary Syndrome During Treatment With Atirocumab [ODYSSEY OUTCOMES]; NCT01663402) (J Am Colt Cardiol 2020;75:2297-308) (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier on behalf of the American College of Cardiology Foundation.Cardiolog

PHIP - a novel candidate breast cancer susceptibility locus on 6q14.1

Most non-BRCA1/2 breast cancer families have no identified genetic cause. We used linkage and haplotype analyses in familial and sporadic breast cancer cases to identify a susceptibility locus on chromosome 6q. Two independent genome-wide linkage analysis studies suggested a 3 Mb locus on chromosome 6q and two unrelated Swedish families with a LOD > 2 together seemed to share a haplotype in 6q14.1. We hypothesized that this region harbored a rare high-risk founder allele contributing to breast cancer in these two families. Sequencing of DNA and RNA from the two families did not detect any pathogenic mutations. Finally, 29 SNPs in the region were analyzed in 44,214 cases and 43,532 controls from BCAC, and the original haplotypes in the two families were suggested as low-risk alleles for European and Swedish women specifically. There was also some support for one additional independent moderate-risk allele in Swedish familial samples. The results were consistent with our previous findings in familial breast cancer and supported a breast cancer susceptibility locus at 6q14.1 around the PHIP gene.Peer reviewe

2q36.3 is associated with prognosis for oestrogen receptor-negative breast cancer patients treated with chemotherapy

Large population-based registry studies have shown that breast cancer prognosis is inherited. Here we analyse single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of genes implicated in human immunology and inflammation as candidates for prognostic markers of breast cancer survival involving 1,804 oestrogen receptor (ER)-negative patients treated with chemotherapy (279 events) from 14 European studies in a prior large-scale genotyping experiment, which is part of the Collaborative Oncological Gene-environment Study (COGS) initiative. We carry out replication using Asian COGS samples (n=522, 53 events) and the Prospective Study of Outcomes in Sporadic versus Hereditary breast cancer (POSH) study (n=315, 108 events). Rs4458204-A near CCL20 (2q36.3) is found to be associated with breast cancer-specific death at a genome-wide significant level (n=2,641, 440 events, combined allelic hazard ratio (HR)=1.81 (1.49-2.19); P for trend=1.90 × 10 â ̂'9). Such survival-associated variants can represent ideal targets for tailored therapeutics, and may also enhance our current prognostic prediction capabilities

The BRCA2 c.68-7T > A variant is not pathogenic : A model for clinical calibration of spliceogenicity

Although the spliceogenic nature of the BRCA2 c.68-7T > A variant has been demonstrated, its association with cancer risk remains controversial. In this study, we accurately quantified by real-time PCR and digital PCR (dPCR), the BRCA2 isoforms retaining or missing exon 3. In addition, the combined odds ratio for causality of the variant was estimated using genetic and clinical data, and its associated cancer risk was estimated by case-control analysis in 83,636 individuals. Co-occurrence in trans with pathogenic BRCA2 variants was assessed in 5,382 families. Exon 3 exclusion rate was 4.5-fold higher in variant carriers (13%) than controls (3%), indicating an exclusion rate for the c.68-7T > A allele of approximately 20%. The posterior probability of pathogenicity was 7.44x10(-115). There was neither evidence for increased risk of breast cancer (OR 1.03; 95% CI 0.86-1.24) nor for a deleterious effect of the variant when co-occurring with pathogenic variants. Our data provide for the first time robust evidence of the nonpathogenicity of the BRCA2 c.68-7T > A. Genetic and quantitative transcript analyses together inform the threshold for the ratio between functional and altered BRCA2 isoforms compatible with normal cell function. These findings might be exploited to assess the relevance for cancer risk of other BRCA2 spliceogenic variants.Peer reviewe

Fine-Scale Mapping of the 5q11.2 Breast Cancer Locus Reveals at Least Three Independent Risk Variants Regulating MAP3K1

Peer reviewe

Fine-Mapping of the 1p11.2 Breast Cancer Susceptibility Locus

The Cancer Genetic Markers of Susceptibility genome-wide association study (GWAS) originally identified a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs11249433 at 1p11.2 associated with breast cancer risk. To fine-map this locus, we genotyped 92 SNPs in a 900kb region (120,505,799-121,481,132) flanking rs11249433 in 45,276 breast cancer cases and 48,998 controls of European, Asian and African ancestry from 50 studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Genotyping was done using iCOGS, a custom-built array. Due to the complicated nature of the region on chr1p11.2: 120,300,000-120,505,798, that lies near the centromere and contains seven duplicated genomic segments, we restricted analyses to 429 SNPs excluding the duplicated regions (42 genotyped and 387 imputed). Perallelic associations with breast cancer risk were estimated using logistic regression models adjusting for study and ancestry-specific principal components. The strongest association observed was with the original identified index SNP rs11249433 (minor allele frequency (MAF) 0.402; per-allele odds ratio (OR) = 1.10, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08-1.13, P = 1.49 x 10(-21)). The association for rs11249433 was limited to ER-positive breast cancers (test for heterogeneity PPeer reviewe