The XMM Cluster Survey: a new cluster candidate sample and detailed selection function

In this thesis we present the XCS DR3 cluster candidate list. This represents the first major update of the XMM Cluster Survey since 2005. The candidate list comprises of 1365 entries with more than 300 detected counts distributed over 229 deg2. We note that a larger area (523 deg2) is available for the study of X-ray point sources and that the new XCS point source sample has more than 130,000 entries. After redshift follow-up and X-ray spectral analysis, these 1365 clusters will comprise the largest homogeneous sample of medium to high redshift X-ray clusters ever compiled. The future science applications of the XCS DR3 clusters include the study of the evolution of X-ray scaling relations and a measurement of cosmological parameters. In support of these science applications, we also present in this thesis detailed selection functions for the XCS. These selection functions allow us to quantify the number of clusters we didn’t detect in our survey regions. We have taken two approaches to the determination of the selection function: the use of simple (circular & isothermal) β models and the use of ‘observations’ of synthetic clusters from the CLEF N-body simulation. The β model work has allowed us to explore how the selection function depends on key cluster parameters such as luminosity, temperature, redshift, core size and profile shape. We have further explored how the selection function depends on the underlying cosmological model and applied our results to XCS cosmology forecasting (Sahlen et al. 2009). The CLEF work has allowed us to explore more complex cluster properties, such as core temperature, core shape, substructure and ellipticity. In summary, the combination of the cluster catalogues and selection functions presented herein will facilitate field leading science applications for many years to come

A Review of Statistical Failure Time Models with Application of a Discrete Hazard Based Model to 1Cr1Mo-0.25V Steel for Turbine Rotors and Shafts

Producing predictions of the probabilistic risks of operating materials for given lengths of time at stated operating conditions requires the assimilation of existing deterministic creep life prediction models (that only predict the average failure time) with statistical models that capture the random component of creep. To date, these approaches have rarely been combined to achieve this objective. The first half of this paper therefore provides a summary review of some statistical models to help bridge the gap between these two approaches. The second half of the paper illustrates one possible assimilation using 1Cr1Mo-0.25V steel. The Wilshire equation for creep life prediction is integrated into a discrete hazard based statistical model—the former being chosen because of its novelty and proven capability in accurately predicting average failure times and the latter being chosen because of its flexibility in modelling the failure time distribution. Using this model it was found that, for example, if this material had been in operation for around 15 years at 823 K and 130 MPa, the chances of failure in the next year is around 35%. However, if this material had been in operation for around 25 years, the chance of failure in the next year rises dramatically to around 80%

The XMM Cluster Survey: Evidence for energy injection at high redshift from evolution of the X-ray luminosity-temperature relation

We measure the evolution of the X-ray luminosity-temperature (L_X-T) relation since z~1.5 using a sample of 211 serendipitously detected galaxy clusters with spectroscopic redshifts drawn from the XMM Cluster Survey first data release (XCS-DR1). This is the first study spanning this redshift range using a single, large, homogeneous cluster sample. Using an orthogonal regression technique, we find no evidence for evolution in the slope or intrinsic scatter of the relation since z~1.5, finding both to be consistent with previous measurements at z~0.1. However, the normalisation is seen to evolve negatively with respect to the self-similar expectation: we find E(z)^{-1} L_X = 10^{44.67 +/- 0.09} (T/5)^{3.04 +/- 0.16} (1+z)^{-1.5 +/- 0.5}, which is within 2 sigma of the zero evolution case. We see milder, but still negative, evolution with respect to self-similar when using a bisector regression technique. We compare our results to numerical simulations, where we fit simulated cluster samples using the same methods used on the XCS data. Our data favour models in which the majority of the excess entropy required to explain the slope of the L_X-T relation is injected at high redshift. Simulations in which AGN feedback is implemented using prescriptions from current semi-analytic galaxy formation models predict positive evolution of the normalisation, and differ from our data at more than 5 sigma. This suggests that more efficient feedback at high redshift may be needed in these models.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS; 12 pages, 6 figures; added references to match published versio

The XMM Cluster Survey: Active Galactic Nuclei and Starburst Galaxies in XMMXCS J2215.9-1738 at z=1.46

We use Chandra X-ray and Spitzer infrared observations to explore the AGN and starburst populations of XMMXCS J2215.9-1738 at z=1.46, one of the most distant spectroscopically confirmed galaxy clusters known. The high resolution X-ray imaging reveals that the cluster emission is contaminated by point sources that were not resolved in XMM observations of the system, and have the effect of hardening the spectrum, leading to the previously reported temperature for this system being overestimated. From a joint spectroscopic analysis of the Chandra and XMM data, the cluster is found to have temperature T=4.1_-0.9^+0.6 keV and luminosity L_X=(2.92_-0.35^+0.24)x10^44 erg/s extrapolated to a radius of 2 Mpc. As a result of this revised analysis, the cluster is found to lie on the sigma_v-T relation, but the cluster remains less luminous than would be expected from self-similar evolution of the local L_X-T relation. Two of the newly discovered X-ray AGN are cluster members, while a third object, which is also a prominent 24 micron source, is found to have properties consistent with it being a high redshift, highly obscured object in the background. We find a total of eight >5 sigma 24 micron sources associated with cluster members (four spectroscopically confirmed, and four selected using photometric redshifts), and one additional 24 micron source with two possible optical/near-IR counterparts that may be associated with the cluster. Examining the IRAC colors of these sources, we find one object is likely to be an AGN. Assuming that the other 24 micron sources are powered by star formation, their infrared luminosities imply star formation rates ~100 M_sun/yr. We find that three of these sources are located at projected distances of <250 kpc from the cluster center, suggesting that a large amount of star formation may be taking place in the cluster core, in contrast to clusters at low redshift.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ, 16 pages, 10 figure

Vestibular disease in dogs under UK primary veterinary care: Epidemiology and clinical management

Background Vestibular disease (VD), central or peripheral, can be a dramatic primary‐care presentation. Current literature describes mostly dogs examined in referral centers. Hypothesis/Objectives Describe the prevalence, presentation, clinical management, and outcomes of VD in dogs under primary veterinary care at UK practices participating in VetCompass. Animals Seven hundred and fifty‐nine vestibular cases identified out of 905 544 study dogs. Methods Retrospective cohort study. Potential VD cases clinically examined during 2016 were verified by reviewing clinical records for signalment, presenting clinical signs, treatments, and outcomes. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate factors associated with VD. Results The overall prevalence of VD was 8 per 10 000 dogs (95% CI = 7‐9). Median age at first diagnosis was 12.68 years (interquartile range [IQR], 11.28‐14.64). Compared with crossbreeds, breeds with the highest odds of VD diagnosis included French Bulldogs (odds ratio [OR] = 9.25, 95% CI = 4.81‐17.76, P  < .001), Bulldogs (OR = 6.53, 95% CI = 2.66‐16.15, P  < .001), King Charles Spaniels (OR = 4.96, 95% CI = 2.52‐9.78, P  < .001), Cavalier King Charles Spaniels (OR = 3.56, 95% CI = 2.50‐5.06, P  < .001), and Springer Spaniels (OR = 3.37, 95% CI = 2.52‐4.52, P  < .001). The most common presenting signs were head tilt (69.8%), nystagmus (68.1%), and ataxia (64.5%). The most frequently used treatments were antiemetics (43.2%), systemic glucocorticoids (33.1%), antimicrobials (25%), and propentofylline (23.25%). There were 3.6% of cases referred. Improvement was recorded in 41.8% cases after a median of 4 days (IQR, 2‐10.25). Conclusions Our study identifies strong breed predispositions for VD. The low referral rates suggest that primary‐care data sources offer more generalizable information for benchmarking to help clinicians review their own clinical activities

Oportunidades perdidas na prevenção da sífilis congênita e da transmissão vertical do HIV

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of missed opportunities for congenital syphilis and HIV prevention in pregnant women who had access to prenatal care and to assess factors associated to non-testing of these infections. METHODS: Cross-sectional study comprising a randomly selected sample of 2,145 puerperal women who were admitted in maternity hospitals for delivery or curettage and had attended at least one prenatal care visit, in Brazil between 1999 and 2000. No syphilis and/or anti-HIV testing during pregnancy was a marker for missed prevention opportunity. Women who were not tested for either or both were compared to those who had at least one syphilis and one anti-HIV testing performed during pregnancy (reference category). The prevalence of missed prevention opportunity was estimated for each category with 95% confidence intervals. Factors independently associated with missed prevention opportunity were assessed through multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: The prevalence of missed prevention opportunity for syphilis or anti-HIV was 41.2% and 56.0%, respectively. The multivariate analysis showed that race/skin color (non-white), schooling (OBJETIVO: Estimar la prevalencia de oportunidad de pérdida de prevención de la sífilis y el HIV entre gestantes que tuvieron acceso al pre-natal y factores asociados con la no evaluación de estos agravios. MÉTODOS: Se realizó estudio transversal con muestra aleatoria de 2.145 puérperas de Brasil, 1999 y 2000 admitidas en maternidades para parto o curetaje y que habían realizado al menos una consulta de pre-natal. La no realización del examen de prueba para sífilis y/o anti-HIV durante el embarazo fue usada como marcador para oportunidad de pérdida de prevención. Las mujeres que realizaron sólo examen de sífilis o sólo examen de anti-HIV, o que no realizaron ninguno, fueron comparadas con las que realizaron los dos (categoría de referencia). La prevalencia de oportunidad de pérdida de prevención fue estimada para cada categoría, con intervalo de confianza de 95%. Los factores asociados con la oportunidad de pérdida de prevención fueron analizados por medio de regresión logística multinomial. RESULTADOS: La prevalencia de oportunidad de pérdida de prevención para la realización de la prueba de sífilis o anti-HIV fue de 41,2% e 56,0%, respectivamente. El análisis multivariado indicó que raza/color (no blanca), escolaridad (< 8 años de estudio), estado civil (soltera), renta < 3 salarios mínimos, relación sexual durante el embarazo, no haber tenido sífilis anterior al embarazo actual, realización de seis o mas consultas de pre-natal y la realización de la última visita antes del tercer trimestre de embarazo, estaban asociados con mayor riesgo de tener oportunidad de pérdida de prevención. Se observó una asociación negativa entre estado civil (soltera), lugar de realización de pre-natal (hospital) y la realización de la primera consulta pre-natal en el tercer trimestre con oportunidad de pérdida de prevención. CONCLUSIONES: Altos porcentajes de gestantes no evaluadas señalan fallas en la prevención y control de la infección por HIV y de la sífilis congénita en los servicios de salud. Las gestantes continúan interrumpiendo el cuidado pre-natal precozmente y no logran realizar los procedimientos de selección para HIV y sífilis.OBJETIVO: Estimar a prevalência de oportunidade perdida de prevenção a sífilis e HIV entre gestantes que tiveram acesso ao pré-natal e fatores associados a não-testagem para esses agravos. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal com amostra aleatória de 2.145 puérperas do Brasil, 1999 e 2000 admitidas em maternidades para parto ou curetagem e que haviam realizado pelo menos uma consulta de pré-natal. A não-realização de exame de teste para sífilis e/ou anti-HIV durante a gravidez foi usada como marcador para oportunidade perdida de prevenção. Mulheres que realizaram apenas exame de sífilis ou apenas o anti-HIV, ou não realizaram nenhum, foram comparadas àquelas que realizaram os dois (categoria de referência). A prevalência de oportunidade perdida de prevenção foi estimada para cada categoria, com intervalo de confiança de 95%. Os fatores associados com oportunidade perdida de prevenção foram analisados por meio de regressão logística multinomial. RESULTADOS: A prevalência de oportunidade perdida de prevenção para a realização do teste de sífilis ou anti-HIV foi de 41,2% e 56,0%, respectivamente. A análise multivariada indicou que raça/cor (não branca), escolaridade (< 8 anos de estudo), estado civil (solteira), rend

The XMM Cluster Survey: Forecasting cosmological and cluster scaling-relation parameter constraints

We forecast the constraints on the values of sigma_8, Omega_m, and cluster scaling relation parameters which we expect to obtain from the XMM Cluster Survey (XCS). We assume a flat Lambda-CDM Universe and perform a Monte Carlo Markov Chain analysis of the evolution of the number density of galaxy clusters that takes into account a detailed simulated selection function. Comparing our current observed number of clusters shows good agreement with predictions. We determine the expected degradation of the constraints as a result of self-calibrating the luminosity-temperature relation (with scatter), including temperature measurement errors, and relying on photometric methods for the estimation of galaxy cluster redshifts. We examine the effects of systematic errors in scaling relation and measurement error assumptions. Using only (T,z) self-calibration, we expect to measure Omega_m to +-0.03 (and Omega_Lambda to the same accuracy assuming flatness), and sigma_8 to +-0.05, also constraining the normalization and slope of the luminosity-temperature relation to +-6 and +-13 per cent (at 1sigma) respectively in the process. Self-calibration fails to jointly constrain the scatter and redshift evolution of the luminosity-temperature relation significantly. Additional archival and/or follow-up data will improve on this. We do not expect measurement errors or imperfect knowledge of their distribution to degrade constraints significantly. Scaling-relation systematics can easily lead to cosmological constraints 2sigma or more away from the fiducial model. Our treatment is the first exact treatment to this level of detail, and introduces a new `smoothed ML' estimate of expected constraints.Comment: 28 pages, 17 figures. Revised version, as accepted for publication in MNRAS. High-resolution figures available at http://xcs-home.org (under "Publications"

Preoperative calculation of risk for prolonged intensive care unit stay following coronary artery bypass grafting

OBJECTIVE: Patients who have prolonged stay in intensive care unit (ICU) are associated with adverse outcomes. Such patients have cost implications and can lead to shortage of ICU beds. We aimed to develop a preoperative risk prediction tool for prolonged ICU stay following coronary artery surgery (CABG). METHODS: 5,186 patients who underwent CABG between 1st April 1997 and 31st March 2002 were analysed in a development dataset. Logistic regression was used with forward stepwise technique to identify preoperative risk factors for prolonged ICU stay; defined as patients staying longer than 3 days on ICU. Variables examined included presentation history, co-morbidities, catheter and demographic details. The use of cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) was also recorded. The prediction tool was tested on validation dataset (1197 CABG patients between 1(st )April 2003 and 31(st )March 2004). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was calculated to assess the performance of the prediction tool. RESULTS: 475(9.2%) patients had a prolonged ICU stay in the development dataset. Variables identified as risk factors for a prolonged ICU stay included renal dysfunction, unstable angina, poor ejection fraction, peripheral vascular disease, obesity, increasing age, smoking, diabetes, priority, hypercholesterolaemia, hypertension, and use of CPB. In the validation dataset, 8.1% patients had a prolonged ICU stay compared to 8.7% expected. The ROC curve for the development and validation datasets was 0.72 and 0.74 respectively. CONCLUSION: A prediction tool has been developed which is reliable and valid. The tool is being piloted at our institution to aid resource management

The XMM Cluster Survey: X-ray analysis methodology

The XMM Cluster Survey (XCS) is a serendipitous search for galaxy clusters using all publicly available data in the XMM-Newton Science Archive. Its main aims are to measure cosmological parameters and trace the evolution of X-ray scaling relations. In this paper we describe the data processing methodology applied to the 5,776 XMM observations used to construct the current XCS source catalogue. A total of 3,675 > 4-sigma cluster candidates with > 50 background-subtracted X-ray counts are extracted from a total non-overlapping area suitable for cluster searching of 410 deg^2. Of these, 993 candidates are detected with > 300 background-subtracted X-ray photon counts, and we demonstrate that robust temperature measurements can be obtained down to this count limit. We describe in detail the automated pipelines used to perform the spectral and surface brightness fitting for these candidates, as well as to estimate redshifts from the X-ray data alone. A total of 587 (122) X-ray temperatures to a typical accuracy of < 40 (< 10) per cent have been measured to date. We also present the methodology adopted for determining the selection function of the survey, and show that the extended source detection algorithm is robust to a range of cluster morphologies by inserting mock clusters derived from hydrodynamical simulations into real XMM images. These tests show that the simple isothermal beta-profiles is sufficient to capture the essential details of the cluster population detected in the archival XMM observations. The redshift follow-up of the XCS cluster sample is presented in a companion paper, together with a first data release of 503 optically-confirmed clusters.Comment: MNRAS accepted, 45 pages, 38 figures. Our companion paper describing our optical analysis methodology and presenting a first set of confirmed clusters has now been submitted to MNRA