Factor demand linkages, technology shocks, and the business cycle

This paper argues that factor demand linkages can be important for the transmission of both sectoral and aggregate shocks. We show this using a panel of highly disaggregated manufacturing sectors together with sectoral structural VARs. When sectoral interactions are explicitly accounted for, a contemporaneous technology shock to all manufacturing sectors implies a positive response in both output and hours at the aggregate level. Otherwise there is a negative correlation, as in much of the existing literature. Furthermore, we find that technology shocks are important drivers of the business cycle

Fourteen Months into the Covid-19 Pandemic: What We Miss the Most

As the U.S. continues to emerge from the deadliest pandemic in over one hundred years, vaccination rates among Americans have steadily risen, and public health guidelines that have been in place for over a year are increasingly relaxed. In short, Americans are readjusting to a “new normal.” But what this “new normal” looks like for many Americans remains unclear. To better understand what Americans are most looking forward to, the National Center for Disaster Preparedness (NCDP) at Columbia University’s Earth Institute partnered with the Marist Institute for Public Opinion to survey Americans and better understand what they are most looking forward to doing – or what getting back to ‘normal’ means to them

Juvenile rockfish show resilience to CO\u3csub\u3e2\u3c/sub\u3e-acidification and hypoxia across multiple biological scales

California’s coastal ecosystems are forecasted to undergo shifting ocean conditions due to climate change, some of which may negatively impact recreational and commercial fish populations. To understand if fish populations have the capacity to respond to multiple stressors, it is critical to examine interactive effects across multiple biological scales, from cellular metabolism to species interactions. This study examined the effects of CO2-acidification and hypoxia on two naturally cooccurring species, juvenile rockfish (genus Sebastes) and a known predator, cabezon (Scorpaenichthys marmoratus). Fishes were exposed to two PCO2 levels at two dissolved oxygen (DO) levels: ~600 (ambient) and ~1600 (high) μatm PCO2 and 8.0 (normoxic) and 4.5 mg l−1 DO (hypoxic) and assessments of cellular metabolism, prey behavior and predation mortality rates were quantified after 1 and 3 weeks. Physiologically, rockfish showed acute alterations in cellular metabolic enzyme activity after 1 week of acclimation to elevated PCO2 and hypoxia that were not evident in cabezon. Alterations in rockfish energy metabolism were driven by increases in anaerobic LDH activity, and adjustments in enzyme activity ratios of cytochrome c oxidase and citrate synthase and LDH:CS. Correlated changes in rockfish behavior were also apparent after 1 week of acclimation to elevated PCO2 and hypoxia. Exploration behavior increased in rockfish exposed to elevated PCO2 and spatial analysis of activity indicated short-term interference with anti-predator responses. Predation rate after 1 week increased with elevated PCO2; however, no mortality was observed under the multiple-stressor treatment suggesting negative effects on cabezon predators. Most noteworthy, metabolic and behavioral changes were moderately compensated after 3 weeks of acclimation, and predation mortality rates also decreased suggesting that these rockfish may be resilient to changes in environmental stressors predicted by climate models. Linking physiological and behavioral responses to multiple stressors is vital to understand impacts on populations and community dynamics

Planet Populations as a Function of Stellar Properties

Exoplanets around different types of stars provide a window into the diverse environments in which planets form. This chapter describes the observed relations between exoplanet populations and stellar properties and how they connect to planet formation in protoplanetary disks. Giant planets occur more frequently around more metal-rich and more massive stars. These findings support the core accretion theory of planet formation, in which the cores of giant planets form more rapidly in more metal-rich and more massive protoplanetary disks. Smaller planets, those with sizes roughly between Earth and Neptune, exhibit different scaling relations with stellar properties. These planets are found around stars with a wide range of metallicities and occur more frequently around lower mass stars. This indicates that planet formation takes place in a wide range of environments, yet it is not clear why planets form more efficiently around low mass stars. Going forward, exoplanet surveys targeting M dwarfs will characterize the exoplanet population around the lowest mass stars. In combination with ongoing stellar characterization, this will help us understand the formation of planets in a large range of environments.Comment: Accepted for Publication in the Handbook of Exoplanet

An analysis and comparison of multinational officers of the watch in the global maritime labor market

Officer of the watch (OOW) is an important part of the maritime labor market. For many years, countries have been improving their development of OOWs for the maritime market, in terms of both quantity and quality. As the supply of qualified OOWs for maritime transportation is such an important issue, shipping companies recruit multinational OOWs for both economic and socio-cultural reasons. This study aims to identify the qualifications of an ideal officer that holds office on commercial ships, and to make a comparison among Filipino, Chinese, Indian, Eastern European and Turkish OOWs. The research takes into account expert opinions of a number of shipping companies that employ multinational seafarers. A Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) technique is applied in this study to assist in the comparison of officers. A number of main and sub-criteria are outlined to determine both positive and negative aspects of OOWs from the selected countries for decision making purposes. This study allows maritime countries to evaluate their maritime education and training policies for selection and assessment of OOWs. © 2019, © 2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group

Gene-specific ACMG/AMP classification criteria for germline APC variants: recommendations from the ClinGen InSIGHT Hereditary Colorectal Cancer/Polyposis Variant Curation Expert Panel

Purpose The Hereditary Colorectal Cancer/Polyposis Variant Curation Expert Panel (VCEP) was established by the International Society for Gastrointestinal Hereditary Tumours and the Clinical Genome Resource, who set out to develop recommendations for the interpretation of germline APC variants underlying Familial Adenomatous Polyposis, the most frequent hereditary polyposis syndrome. Methods Through a rigorous process of database analysis, literature review, and expert elicitation, the APC VCEP derived gene-specific modifications to the ACMG/AMP (American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics and Association for Molecular Pathology) variant classification guidelines and validated such criteria through the pilot classification of 58 variants. Results The APC-specific criteria represented gene- and disease-informed specifications, including a quantitative approach to allele frequency thresholds, a stepwise decision tool for truncating variants, and semiquantitative evaluations of experimental and clinical data. Using the APC-specific criteria, 47% (27/58) of pilot variants were reclassified including 14 previous variants of uncertain significance (VUS). Conclusion The APC-specific ACMG/AMP criteria preserved the classification of well-characterized variants on ClinVar while substantially reducing the number of VUS by 56% (14/25). Moving forward, the APC VCEP will continue to interpret prioritized lists of VUS, the results of which will represent the most authoritative variant classification for widespread clinical use

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

Measurement of the cosmic ray spectrum above 4×10184{\times}10^{18} eV using inclined events detected with the Pierre Auger Observatory

A measurement of the cosmic-ray spectrum for energies exceeding $4{\times}10^{18}$ eV is presented, which is based on the analysis of showers with zenith angles greater than $60^{\circ}$ detected with the Pierre Auger Observatory between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2013. The measured spectrum confirms a flux suppression at the highest energies. Above $5.3{\times}10^{18}$ eV, the "ankle", the flux can be described by a power law $E^{-\gamma}$ with index $\gamma=2.70 \pm 0.02 \,\text{(stat)} \pm 0.1\,\text{(sys)}$ followed by a smooth suppression region. For the energy ($E_\text{s}$) at which the spectral flux has fallen to one-half of its extrapolated value in the absence of suppression, we find $E_\text{s}=(5.12\pm0.25\,\text{(stat)}^{+1.0}_{-1.2}\,\text{(sys)}){\times}10^{19}$ eV.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO