Predicting Understorey VegetationCover from Overstorey Attributes in Two Temperate MountainForests

Summary : It is important to develop a predictive understanding for the environmental controls on understorey vegetation, which harbor most of the plant biodiversity and are the source of food and cover for wildlife. Forest succession models (i. e. gap models) representing overstorey dynamics are not commonly linked to mathematical models of understorey dynamics. This is surprising, given that understorey vegetation clearly responds to changes in the overstorey that result in changing light availability. One difficulty may lie in the coarse representation of light regime captured by most gap models. Linkage of overstorey-understorey models might be facilitated if the diameter structure of simulated stands could be used to drive understorey change, as a proxy for light and other influences. The objective of this study was to determine whether understorey vegetation cover can be adequately predicted by variables derived from overstorey diameter structure alone, or if canopy cover and light availability are important, from additional predictors. Field sampling was conducted at a montane and a subalpine study area in the Swiss Alps. We used regression analysis to assess the relative importance of various overstorey predictors for understorey cover and composition. In the subalpine study area, the relative dominance of graminoids increased with increasing light availability, at the expense of forbs. In the montane study area, forb cover increased sharply with increasing light, while graminoid cover remained at low levels. As a result, the relative dominance of graminoid species declined with increasing light levels. This difference is attributed to the presence of Adenostyles alliariae, a tall, large-leaved forb. The effects of changes in the physical environment on plant community composition were thus mediated by interspecific interactions. This makes it difficult to predict overstorey-induced changes in understorey species composition at the level of functional groups. At both study sites, diameter structure variables were found to provide a reasonable approximation of total understorey cover, cover of the more common species, and species richness. Models of understorey community composition often improved (0-31% increased predictive ability) with inclusion of variables representing the light environment. In the context of gap model development, the great complexity associated with improved representation of light availability must be weighed against the relatively low gain in predictive power that is likely to result. We recommend that efforts to include forest understorey dynamics in gap models begin by considering empirical relationships between understorey patterns and overstorey diameter structur

Using scenario tree modelling for targeted herd sampling to substantiate freedom from disease

Background: In order to optimise the cost-effectiveness of active surveillance to substantiate freedom from disease, a new approach using targeted sampling of farms was developed and applied on the example of infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) and enzootic bovine leucosis (EBL) in Switzerland. Relevant risk factors (RF) for the introduction of IBR and EBL into Swiss cattle farms were identified and their relative risks defined based on literature review and expert opinions. A quantitative model based on the scenario tree method was subsequently used to calculate the required sample size of a targeted sampling approach (TS) for a given sensitivity. We compared the sample size with that of a stratified random sample (sRS) with regard to efficiency. Results: The required sample sizes to substantiate disease freedom were 1,241 farms for IBR and 1,750 farms for EBL to detect 0.2% herd prevalence with 99% sensitivity. Using conventional sRS, the required sample sizes were 2,259 farms for IBR and 2,243 for EBL. Considering the additional administrative expenses required for the planning of TS, the risk-based approach was still more cost-effective than a sRS (40% reduction on the full survey costs for IBR and 8% for EBL) due to the considerable reduction in sample size. Conclusions: As the model depends on RF selected through literature review and was parameterised with values estimated by experts, it is subject to some degree of uncertainty. Nevertheless, this approach provides the veterinary authorities with a promising tool for future cost-effective sampling designs

Comparative assessment of passive surveillance in disease-free and endemic situation: Example of Brucella melitensis surveillance in Switzerland and in Bosnia and Herzegovina

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Globalization and subsequent growth in international trade in animals and animal products has increased the importance of international disease reporting. Efficient and reliable surveillance systems are needed in order to document the disease status of a population at a given time. In this context, passive surveillance plays an important role in early warning systems. However, it is not yet routinely integrated in the assessment of disease surveillance systems because different factors like the disease awareness (DA) of people reporting suspect cases influence the detection performance of passive surveillance. In this paper, we used scenario tree methodology in order to evaluate and compare the quality and benefit of abortion testing (ABT) for <it>Brucella melitensis </it>(<it>Bm</it>) between the disease free situation in Switzerland (CH) and a hypothetical disease free situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH), taking into account DA levels assumed for the current endemic situation in BH.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The structure and input parameters of the scenario tree were identical for CH and BH with the exception of population data in small ruminants and the DA in farmers and veterinarians. The sensitivity analysis of the stochastic scenario tree model showed that the small ruminant population structure and the DA of farmers were important influential parameters with regard to the unit sensitivity of ABT in both CH and BH. The DA of both farmers and veterinarians was assumed to be higher in BH than in CH due to the current endemic situation in BH. Although the same DA cannot necessarily be assumed for the modelled hypothetical disease free situation as for the actual endemic situation, it shows the importance of the higher vigilance of people reporting suspect cases on the probability that an average unit processed in the ABT-component would test positive.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The actual sensitivity of passive surveillance approaches heavily depends on the context in which they are applied. Scenario tree modelling allows for the evaluation of such passive surveillance system components under assumed disease free situation. Despite data gaps, this is a real opportunity to compare different situations and to explore consequences of changes that could be made.</p

Establishing a cost-effective national surveillance system for Bluetongue using scenario tree modelling

Vector-borne diseases pose a special challenge to veterinary authorities due to complex and time-consuming surveillance programs taking into account vector habitat. Using stochastic scenario tree modelling, each possible surveillance activity of a future surveillance system can be evaluated with regard to its sensitivity and the expected cost. The overall sensitivity of various potential surveillance systems, composed of different combinations of surveillance activities, is calculated and the proposed surveillance system is optimized with respect to the considered surveillance activities, the sensitivity and the cost. The objective of this project was to use stochastic scenario tree modelling in combination with a simple cost analysis in order to develop the national surveillance system for Bluetongue in Switzerland. This surveillance system was established due to the emerging outbreak of Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) in Northern Europe in 2006. Based on the modelling results, it was decided to implement an improved passive clinical surveillance in cattle and sheep through campaigns in order to increase disease awareness alongside a targeted bulk milk testing strategy in 200 dairy cattle herds located in high-risk areas. The estimated median probability of detection of cases (i.e. sensitivity) of the surveillance system in this combined approach was 96.4%. The evaluation of the prospective national surveillance system predicted that passive clinical surveillance in cattle would provide the highest probability to detect BTV-8 infected animals, followed by passive clinical surveillance in sheep and bulk milk testing of 200 dairy cattle farms in high-risk areas. This approach is also applicable in other countries and to other epidemic diseases

Peptide and nucleic acid-directed self-assembly of cationic nanovehicles through giant unilamellar vesicle modification: targetable nanocomplexes for in vivo nucleic acid delivery

One of the greatest challenges for the development of genetic therapies is the efficient targeted delivery of therapeutic nucleic acids. Towards this goal, we have introduced a new engineering initiative in self-assembly of biologically safe and stable nanovesicle complexes (∼90-140 nm) derived from giant unilamellar vesicle (GUV) precursors and comprising plasmid DNA or siRNA and targeting peptide ligands. The biological performance of the engineered nanovesicle complexes were studied both in vitro and in vivo and compared with cationic liposome-based lipopolyplexes. Compared with cationic lipopolyplexes, nanovesicle complexes did not show advantages in transfection and cell uptake. However, nanovesicle complexes neither displayed significant cytotoxicity nor activated the complement system, which are advantageous for intravenous injection and tumour therapy. On intravenous administration into a neuroblastoma xenograft mouse model, nanovesicle complexes were found to distribute throughout the tumour interstitium, thus providing an alternative safer approach for future development of tumour-specific therapeutic nucleic acid interventions. On oropharyngeal instillation, nanovesicle complexes displayed better transfection efficiency than cationic lipopolyplexes. The technological advantages of nanovesicle complexes, originating from GUVs, over traditional cationic liposome-based lipopolyplexes are discussed. STATEMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE: The efficient targeted delivery of nucleic acids in vivo provides some of the greatest challenges to the development of genetic therapies. Giant unilamellar lipid vesicles (GUVs) have been used mainly as cell and tissue mimics and are instrumental in studying lipid bilayers and interactions. Here, the GUVs have been modified into smaller nanovesicles. We have then developed novel nanovesicle complexes comprising self-assembling mixtures of the nanovesicles, plasmid DNA or siRNA, and targeting peptide ligands. Their biophysical properties were studied and their transfection efficiency was investigated. They transfected cells efficiently without any associated cytotoxicity and with targeting specificity, and in vivo they resulted in very high and tumour-specific uptake and in addition, efficiently transfected the lung. The peptide-targeted nanovesicle complexes allow for the specific targeted enhancement of nucleic acid delivery with improved biosafety over liposomal formulations and represent a promising tool to improve our arsenal of safe, non-viral vectors to deliver therapeutic cargos in a variety of disorders

Project PathoPig—A practical approach to strengthen post mortem analyses and early detection of pig diseases and zoonoses

Post mortem examinations are important for early detection and diagnosis of animal diseases and zoonoses. Over the last ten years, the number of necropsies in livestock has decreased considerably in Switzerland. To counteract this decline, the Federal Food Safety and Veterinary Office (FSVO) launched a project in 2014 called PathoPig. The aim is to evaluate the significance of pathologic-anatomical examinations for early detection of pig diseases and to investigate the impact of the findings on the improvement of pig health. Pig producers can participate if at least one of the following criteria is fulfilled: high morbidity and/or high mortality, unusual clinical signs, recurrent problems of unknown aetiology resistant to therapy or increased use of antimicrobials. Accordingly, the veterinarian examines the herd, fills in a standardised anamnesis protocol and submits one to three pigs representing the health problem to a designated pathology laboratory. After post mortem examination, the veterinarian offers specific recommendations to the farmer. Three to six months later, the Swiss Pig Health Service (SPHS) follows up the success of the veterinary recommendations. In 2014, 371 farms submitted pigs for PathoPig. In 84% of these cases, a conclusive diagnosis was obtained. In 56% of the cases, gastrointestinal problems were determined, most often (44%) caused by pathogenic Escherichia coli. In more than 80% of the cases, the animal health status could be improved considerably after the veterinary consultation. Increased post mortem examinations allowed more specific therapeutic treatments and management recommendations. Additionally, an improvement of collaboration between diagnostic laboratories, veterinarians and producers was achieved, thereby strengthening disease awareness and early detection of pig diseases and zoonoses in Switzerland

The systematic guideline review: method, rationale, and test on chronic heart failure

Background: Evidence-based guidelines have the potential to improve healthcare. However, their de-novo-development requires substantial resources-especially for complex conditions, and adaptation may be biased by contextually influenced recommendations in source guidelines. In this paper we describe a new approach to guideline development-the systematic guideline review method (SGR), and its application in the development of an evidence-based guideline for family physicians on chronic heart failure (CHF). Methods: A systematic search for guidelines was carried out. Evidence-based guidelines on CHF management in adults in ambulatory care published in English or German between the years 2000 and 2004 were included. Guidelines on acute or right heart failure were excluded. Eligibility was assessed by two reviewers, methodological quality of selected guidelines was appraised using the AGREE instrument, and a framework of relevant clinical questions for diagnostics and treatment was derived. Data were extracted into evidence tables, systematically compared by means of a consistency analysis and synthesized in a preliminary draft. Most relevant primary sources were re-assessed to verify the cited evidence. Evidence and recommendations were summarized in a draft guideline. Results: Of 16 included guidelines five were of good quality. A total of 35 recommendations were systematically compared: 25/35 were consistent, 9/35 inconsistent, and 1/35 un-rateable (derived from a single guideline). Of the 25 consistencies, 14 were based on consensus, seven on evidence and four differed in grading. Major inconsistencies were found in 3/9 of the inconsistent recommendations. We re-evaluated the evidence for 17 recommendations (evidence-based, differing evidence levels and minor inconsistencies) - the majority was congruent. Incongruity was found where the stated evidence could not be verified in the cited primary sources, or where the evaluation in the source guidelines focused on treatment benefits and underestimated the risks. The draft guideline was completed in 8.5 man-months. The main limitation to this study was the lack of a second reviewer. Conclusion: The systematic guideline review including framework development, consistency analysis and validation is an effective, valid, and resource saving-approach to the development of evidence-based guidelines

Concepts for risk-based surveillance in the field of veterinary medicine and veterinary public health: Review of current approaches

BACKGROUND: Emerging animal and zoonotic diseases and increasing international trade have resulted in an increased demand for veterinary surveillance systems. However, human and financial resources available to support government veterinary services are becoming more and more limited in many countries world-wide. Intuitively, issues that present higher risks merit higher priority for surveillance resources as investments will yield higher benefit-cost ratios. The rapid rate of acceptance of this core concept of risk-based surveillance has outpaced the development of its theoretical and practical bases. DISCUSSION: The principal objectives of risk-based veterinary surveillance are to identify surveillance needs to protect the health of livestock and consumers, to set priorities, and to allocate resources effectively and efficiently. An important goal is to achieve a higher benefit-cost ratio with existing or reduced resources. We propose to define risk-based surveillance systems as those that apply risk assessment methods in different steps of traditional surveillance design for early detection and management of diseases or hazards. In risk-based designs, public health, economic and trade consequences of diseases play an important role in selection of diseases or hazards. Furthermore, certain strata of the population of interest have a higher probability to be sampled for detection of diseases or hazards. Evaluation of risk-based surveillance systems shall prove that the efficacy of risk-based systems is equal or higher than traditional systems; however, the efficiency (benefit-cost ratio) shall be higher in risk-based surveillance systems. SUMMARY: Risk-based surveillance considerations are useful to support both strategic and operational decision making. This article highlights applications of risk-based surveillance systems in the veterinary field including food safety. Examples are provided for risk-based hazard selection, risk-based selection of sampling strata as well as sample size calculation based on risk considerations

Computing, Design, Art: Reflections on an Innovative Moment in History

The paper is concerned with the role of art and design in the history and philosophy of computing. It offers insights arising from research into a period in the 1960s and 70s, particularly in the UK, when computing became more available to artists and designers, focusing on John Lansdown (1929-1999) and Bruce Archer (1922-2005) in London. Models of computing interacted with conceptualisations of art, design and related creative activities in important ways