Forecasting Tunisian type 2 diabetes prevalence to 2027: validation of a simple model.

BACKGROUND: Most projections of type 2 diabetes (T2D) prevalence are simply based on demographic change (i.e. ageing). We developed a model to predict future trends in T2D prevalence in Tunisia, explicitly taking into account trends in major risk factors (obesity and smoking). This could improve assessment of policy options for prevention and health service planning. METHODS: The IMPACT T2D model uses a Markov approach to integrate population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate future T2D prevalence. We developed a model for the Tunisian population from 1997 to 2027, and validated the model outputs by comparing with a subsequent T2D prevalence survey conducted in 2005. RESULTS: The model estimated that the prevalence of T2D among Tunisians aged over 25 years was 12.0% in 1997 (95% confidence intervals 9.6%-14.4%), increasing to 15.1% (12.5%-17.4%) in 2005. Between 1997 and 2005, observed prevalence in men increased from 13.5% to 16.1% and in women from 12.9% to 14.1%. The model forecast for a dramatic rise in prevalence by 2027 (26.6% overall, 28.6% in men and 24.7% in women). However, if obesity prevalence declined by 20% in the 10 years from 2013, and if smoking decreased by 20% over 10 years from 2009, a 3.3% reduction in T2D prevalence could be achieved in 2027 (2.5% in men and 4.1% in women). CONCLUSIONS: This innovative model provides a reasonably close estimate of T2D prevalence for Tunisia over the 1997-2027 period. Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge. Our model predicts that this burden will increase significantly in the next two decades. Tackling obesity, smoking and other T2D risk factors thus needs urgent action. Tunisian decision makers have therefore defined two strategies: obesity reduction and tobacco control. Responses will be evaluated in future population surveys

A New Stalked Filter-Feeder from the Middle Cambrian Burgess Shale, British Columbia, Canada

Burgess Shale-type deposits provide invaluable insights into the early evolution of body plans and the ecological structure of Cambrian communities, but a number of species, continue to defy phylogenetic interpretations. Here we extend this list to include a new soft-bodied animal, Siphusauctum gregarium n. gen. and n. sp., from the Tulip Beds (Campsite Cliff Shale Member, Burgess Shale Formation) of Mount Stephen (Yoho National Park, British Columbia). With 1,133 specimens collected, S. gregarium is clearly the most abundant animal from this locality

A xandarellid artiopodan from Morocco – a middle Cambrian link between soft-bodied euarthropod communities in North Africa and South China

NB. A corrigendum [correction] for this article was published online on 09 May 2017; this has been attached to this article as an additional file. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ © The Author(s) 2017. The attached file is the published version of the article

Comparing oil based ointment versus standard practice for the treatment of moderate burns in Greece: a trial based cost effectiveness evaluation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The local treatment of burn wounds has long been a subject of debate. The objective of this study was to compare the cost and the effectiveness of Moist Exposed Burn Ointment -MEBO versus a combination of <it>povidone iodine </it>plus <it>bepanthenol </it>cream for partial thickness burns.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study was carried out in the Burn Center of a state hospital in Athens, Greece. 211 patients needing conservative therapy were prospectively selected according to the depth of the burn wound. The treatment was allocated according to the Stratified Randomization Design. The outcomes measured were mean cost of in-hospital stay, rate of complications, time of 50% wound healing, pain scores, in hospital stay diminution. We have adopted a societal perspective.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In the total groups MEBO presented lower cost, (although not significantly different: p = 0.10) and better effectiveness. The data suggest that MEBO is the dominant therapy for superficial partial burn wound with significantly lower costs and significantly higher effectiveness due to a lesser time of recovery and consequently lower time of hospitalization and follow-up. MEBO presented similar percentages of complications with the comparator, lower pain levels and smaller time of no healthy appearance of the burn limits for superficial partial thickness burns.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The data suggested that topical application of MEBO may be considered for further investigation as a potential first-line treatment modality for superficial partial thickness burns.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>The trial has been registered on the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number Register (ISRCTN) and given the registration number <a href="http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN74058791">ISRCTN74058791</a>.</p

Accurate and efficient gp120 V3 loop structure based models for the determination of HIV-1 co-receptor usage

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>HIV-1 targets human cells expressing both the CD4 receptor, which binds the viral envelope glycoprotein gp120, as well as either the CCR5 (R5) or CXCR4 (X4) co-receptors, which interact primarily with the third hypervariable loop (V3 loop) of gp120. Determination of HIV-1 affinity for either the R5 or X4 co-receptor on host cells facilitates the inclusion of co-receptor antagonists as a part of patient treatment strategies. A dataset of 1193 distinct gp120 V3 loop peptide sequences (989 R5-utilizing, 204 X4-capable) is utilized to train predictive classifiers based on implementations of random forest, support vector machine, boosted decision tree, and neural network machine learning algorithms. An <it>in silico </it>mutagenesis procedure employing multibody statistical potentials, computational geometry, and threading of variant V3 sequences onto an experimental structure, is used to generate a feature vector representation for each variant whose components measure environmental perturbations at corresponding structural positions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Classifier performance is evaluated based on stratified 10-fold cross-validation, stratified dataset splits (2/3 training, 1/3 validation), and leave-one-out cross-validation. Best reported values of sensitivity (85%), specificity (100%), and precision (98%) for predicting X4-capable HIV-1 virus, overall accuracy (97%), Matthew's correlation coefficient (89%), balanced error rate (0.08), and ROC area (0.97) all reach critical thresholds, suggesting that the models outperform six other state-of-the-art methods and come closer to competing with phenotype assays.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The trained classifiers provide instantaneous and reliable predictions regarding HIV-1 co-receptor usage, requiring only translated V3 loop genotypes as input. Furthermore, the novelty of these computational mutagenesis based predictor attributes distinguishes the models as orthogonal and complementary to previous methods that utilize sequence, structure, and/or evolutionary information. The classifiers are available online at <url>http://proteins.gmu.edu/automute</url>.</p

Performance of the CMS Cathode Strip Chambers with Cosmic Rays

The Cathode Strip Chambers (CSCs) constitute the primary muon tracking device in the CMS endcaps. Their performance has been evaluated using data taken during a cosmic ray run in fall 2008. Measured noise levels are low, with the number of noisy channels well below 1%. Coordinate resolution was measured for all types of chambers, and fall in the range 47 microns to 243 microns. The efficiencies for local charged track triggers, for hit and for segments reconstruction were measured, and are above 99%. The timing resolution per layer is approximately 5 ns

Linked read technology for assembling large complex and polyploid genomes

Background: Short read DNA sequencing technologies have revolutionized genome assembly by providing high accuracy and throughput data at low cost. But it remains challenging to assemble short read data, particularly for large, complex and polyploid genomes. The linked read strategy has the potential to enhance the value of short reads for genome assembly because all reads originating from a single long molecule of DNA share a common barcode. However, the majority of studies to date that have employed linked reads were focused on human haplotype phasing and genome assembly. Results: Here we describe a de novo maize B73 genome assembly generated via linked read technology which contains ~ 172,000 scaffolds with an N50 of 89 kb that cover 50% of the genome. Based on comparisons to the B73 reference genome, 91% of linked read contigs are accurately assembled. Because it was possible to identify errors with \u3e 76% accuracy using machine learning, it may be possible to identify and potentially correct systematic errors. Complex polyploids represent one of the last grand challenges in genome assembly. Linked read technology was able to successfully resolve the two subgenomes of the recent allopolyploid, proso millet (Panicum miliaceum). Our assembly covers ~ 83% of the 1 Gb genome and consists of 30,819 scaffolds with an N50 of 912 kb. Conclusions: Our analysis provides a framework for future de novo genome assemblies using linked reads, and we suggest computational strategies that if implemented have the potential to further improve linked read assemblies, particularly for repetitive genomes

Complexity in water and carbon dioxide fluxes following rain pulses in an African savanna

The idea that many processes in arid and semi-arid ecosystems are dormant until activated by a pulse of rainfall, and then decay from a maximum rate as the soil dries, is widely used as a conceptual and mathematical model, but has rarely been evaluated with data. This paper examines soil water, evapotranspiration (ET), and net ecosystem CO2 exchange measured for 5 years at an eddy covariance tower sited in an Acacia–Combretum savanna near Skukuza in the Kruger National Park, South Africa. The analysis characterizes ecosystem flux responses to discrete rain events and evaluates the skill of increasingly complex “pulse models”. Rainfall pulses exert strong control over ecosystem-scale water and CO2 fluxes at this site, but the simplest pulse models do a poor job of characterizing the dynamics of the response. Successful models need to include the time lag between the wetting event and the process peak, which differ for evaporation, photosynthesis and respiration. Adding further complexity, the time lag depends on the prior duration and degree of water stress. ET response is well characterized by a linear function of potential ET and a logistic function of profile-total soil water content, with remaining seasonal variation correlating with vegetation phenological dynamics (leaf area). A 1- to 3-day lag to maximal ET following wetting is a source of hysteresis in the ET response to soil water. Respiration responds to wetting within days, while photosynthesis takes a week or longer to reach its peak if the rainfall was preceded by a long dry spell. Both processes exhibit nonlinear functional responses that vary seasonally. We conclude that a more mechanistic approach than simple pulse modeling is needed to represent daily ecosystem C processes in semiarid savannas