Criticality Metrics for Automated Driving: A Review and Suitability Analysis of the State of the Art

The large-scale deployment of automated vehicles on public roads has the potential to vastly change the transportation modalities of today's society. Although this pursuit has been initiated decades ago, there still exist open challenges in reliably ensuring that such vehicles operate safely in open contexts. While functional safety is a well-established concept, the question of measuring the behavioral safety of a vehicle remains subject to research. One way to both objectively and computationally analyze traffic conflicts is the development and utilization of so-called criticality metrics. Contemporary approaches have leveraged the potential of criticality metrics in various applications related to automated driving, e.g. for computationally assessing the dynamic risk or filtering large data sets to build scenario catalogs. As a prerequisite to systematically choose adequate criticality metrics for such applications, we extensively review the state of the art of criticality metrics, their properties, and their applications in the context of automated driving. Based on this review, we propose a suitability analysis as a methodical tool to be used by practitioners. Both the proposed method and the state of the art review can then be harnessed to select well-suited measurement tools that cover an application's requirements, as demonstrated by an exemplary execution of the analysis. Ultimately, efficient, valid, and reliable measurements of an automated vehicle's safety performance are a key requirement for demonstrating its trustworthiness

Multiplexing information flow through dynamic signalling systems

We consider how a signalling system can act as an information hub by multiplexing information arising from multiple signals. We formally define multiplexing, mathematically characterise which systems can multiplex and how well they can do it. While the results of this paper are theoretical, to motivate the idea of multiplexing, we provide experimental evidence that tentatively suggests that the NF-κB transcription factor can multiplex information about changes in multiple signals. We believe that our theoretical results may resolve the apparent paradox of how a system like NF-κB that regulates cell fate and inflammatory signalling in response to diverse stimuli can appear to have the low information carrying capacity suggested by recent studies on scalar signals. In carrying out our study, we introduce new methods for the analysis of large, nonlinear stochastic dynamic models, and develop computational algorithms that facilitate the calculation of fundamental constructs of information theory such as Kullback–Leibler divergences and sensitivity matrices, and link these methods to a new theory about multiplexing information. We show that many current models such as those of the NF-κB system cannot multiplex effectively and provide models that overcome this limitation using post-transcriptional modifications

On Chemical Reaction Network Design by a Nested Evolution Algorithm

International audienceOne goal of synthetic biology is to implement useful functions with biochemical reactions, either by reprogramming living cells or programming artificial vesicles. In this perspective, we consider Chemical Reaction Networks (CRN) as a programming language, and investigate the CRN program synthesis problem. Recent work has shown that CRN interpreted by differential equations are Turing-complete and can be seen as analog computers where the molecular concentrations play the role of information carriers. Any real function that is computable by a Turing machine in arbitrary precision can thus be computed by a CRN over a finite set of molecular species. The proof of this result gives a numerical method to generate a finite CRN for implementing a real function presented as the solution of a Polynomial Initial Values Problem (PIVP). In this paper, we study an alternative method based on artificial evolution to build a CRN that approximates a real function given on finite sets of input values. We present a nested search algorithm that evolves the structure of the CRN and optimizes the kinetic parameters at each generation. We evaluate this algorithm on the Heaviside and Cosine functions both as functions of time and functions of input molecular species. We then compare the CRN obtained by artificial evolution both to the CRN generated by the numerical method from a PIVP definition of the function, and to the natural CRN found in the BioModels repository for switches and oscillators

Multi-subject analyses with dynamic causal modeling

Currently, most studies that employ dynamic causal modeling (DCM) use random-effects (RFX) analysis to make group inferences, applying a second-level frequentist test to subjects' parameter estimates. In some instances, however, fixed-effects (FFX) analysis can be more appropriate. Such analyses can be implemented by combining the subjects' posterior densities according to Bayes' theorem either on a multivariate (Bayesian parameter averaging or BPA) or univariate basis (posterior variance weighted averaging or PVWA), or by applying DCM to time-series averaged across subjects beforehand (temporal averaging or TA). While all these FFX approaches have the advantage of allowing for Bayesian inferences on parameters a systematic comparison of their statistical properties has been lacking so far. Based on simulated data generated from a two-region network we examined the effects of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and population heterogeneity on group-level parameter estimates. Data sets were simulated assuming either a homogeneous large population (N=60) with constant connectivities across subjects or a heterogeneous population with varying parameters. TA showed advantages at lower SNR but is limited in its applicability. Because BPA and PVWA take into account posterior (co)variance structure, they can yield non-intuitive results when only considering posterior means. This problem is relevant for high SNR data, pronounced parameter interdependencies and when FFX assumptions are violated (i.e. inhomogeneous groups). It diminishes with decreasing SNR and is absent for models with independent parameters or when FFX assumptions are appropriate. Group results obtained with these FFX approaches should therefore be interpreted carefully by considering estimates of dependencies among model parameters

Whole-Embryo Modeling of Early Segmentation in Drosophila Identifies Robust and Fragile Expression Domains

Segmentation of the Drosophila melanogaster embryo results from the dynamic establishment of spatial mRNA and protein patterns. Here, we exploit recent temporal mRNA and protein expression measurements on the full surface of the blastoderm to calibrate a dynamical model of the gap gene network on the entire embryo cortex. We model the early mRNA and protein dynamics of the gap genes hunchback, Kruppel, giant, and knirps, taking as regulatory inputs the maternal Bicoid and Caudal gradients, plus the zygotic Tailless and Huckebein proteins. The model captures the expression patterns faithfully, and its predictions are assessed from gap gene mutants. The inferred network shows an architecture based on reciprocal repression between gap genes that can stably pattern the embryo on a realistic geometry but requires complex regulations such as those involving the Hunchback monomer and dimers. Sensitivity analysis identifies the posterior domain of giant as among the most fragile features of an otherwise robust network, and hints at redundant regulations by Bicoid and Hunchback, possibly reflecting recent evolutionary changes in the gap-gene network in insects

A Bayesian active learning strategy for sequential experimental design in systems biology

International audienceBorrowing ideas from Bayesian experimental design and active learning, we propose a new strategy for optimal experimental design in the context of kinetic parameter estimation in systems biology. We describe algorithmic choices that allow to implement this method in a computationally tractable way and make it fully automatic. Based on simulation, we show that it outperforms alternative baseline strategies, and demonstrate the benefit to consider multiple posterior modes of the likelihood landscape, as opposed to traditional schemes based on local and Gaussian approximations. An R package is provided to reproduce all experimental simulations

Parameter Trajectory Analysis to Identify Treatment Effects of Pharmacological Interventions

<p>The field of medical systems biology aims to advance understanding of molecular mechanisms that drive disease progression and to translate this knowledge into therapies to effectively treat diseases. A challenging task is the investigation of long-term effects of a (pharmacological) treatment, to establish its applicability and to identify potential side effects. We present a new modeling approach, called Analysis of Dynamic Adaptations in Parameter Trajectories (ADAPT), to analyze the long-term effects of a pharmacological intervention. A concept of time-dependent evolution of model parameters is introduced to study the dynamics of molecular adaptations. The progression of these adaptations is predicted by identifying necessary dynamic changes in the model parameters to describe the transition between experimental data obtained during different stages of the treatment. The trajectories provide insight in the affected underlying biological systems and identify the molecular events that should be studied in more detail to unravel the mechanistic basis of treatment outcome. Modulating effects caused by interactions with the proteome and transcriptome levels, which are often less well understood, can be captured by the time-dependent descriptions of the parameters. ADAPT was employed to identify metabolic adaptations induced upon pharmacological activation of the liver X receptor (LXR), a potential drug target to treat or prevent atherosclerosis. The trajectories were investigated to study the cascade of adaptations. This provided a counter-intuitive insight concerning the function of scavenger receptor class B1 (SR-B1), a receptor that facilitates the hepatic uptake of cholesterol. Although activation of LXR promotes cholesterol efflux and -excretion, our computational analysis showed that the hepatic capacity to clear cholesterol was reduced upon prolonged treatment. This prediction was confirmed experimentally by immunoblotting measurements of SR-B1 in hepatic membranes. Next to the identification of potential unwanted side effects, we demonstrate how ADAPT can be used to design new target interventions to prevent these.</p>

Sequencing of the genus Arabidopsis identifies a complex history of nonbifurcating speciation and abundant trans-specific polymorphism

The notion of species as reproductively isolated units related through a bifurcating tree implies that gene trees should generally agree with the species tree and that sister taxa should not share polymorphisms unless they diverged recently and should be equally closely related to outgroups. It is now possible to evaluate this model systematically. We sequenced multiple individuals from 27 described taxa representing the entire Arabidopsis genus. Cluster analysis identified seven groups, corresponding to described species that capture the structure of the genus. However, at the level of gene trees, only the separation of Arabidopsis thaliana from the remaining species was universally supported, and, overall, the amount of shared polymorphism demonstrated that reproductive isolation was considerably more recent than the estimated divergence times. We uncovered multiple cases of past gene flow that contradict a bifurcating species tree. Finally, we showed that the pattern of divergence differs between gene ontologies, suggesting a role for selection. © 2016 Nature America, Inc. All rights reserved.CODEN: NGENE</p