Essays on Unintended Effects of Government Policies

Public finance economics is often concerned with the "unintended consequences" of government policies, as an evaluation of these unintended effects is required to obtain a complete picture of the efficacy of a given policy. In my dissertation, I study three government policies, along with their potential unintended effects. I find that, in general, the potential unintended effects that I study are economically small. These findings suggest that policymakers in these areas can focus relatively more on the direct, intended effects of these policies when evaluating their costs and benefits. In the first chapter, I study an expansion of Medicaid which occurred in 2014 as part of the Affordable Care Act. Because this expansion was only taken up by approximately half of all U.S. states, migration across state lines is a potential unintended consequence of these reforms. I analyze data from the American Community Survey and find that this migration response was not large: I estimate that migration could have increased Medicaid rolls in expansion states by no more than 2 percent. In the second chapter, Chris Boone, Arindrajit Dube, Ethan Kaplan, and I study extensions of unemployment insurance (UI) in the U.S. during the Great Recession. The "moral hazard" effect of UI on individual search effort has been well-studied. In this chapter, we broaden these potential unintended effects to include all potential effects (positive and negative) on aggregate employment at the county level. Again, we find little effect: we can rule out negative effects of the extensions in excess of -0.3 percentage points of the employment-to-population ratio. Finally, in the third chapter, I use administrative tax data to study a tax reform in the state of Kansas which was designed to provide tax relief to businesses. This reform also increased an incentive for owners of a subset of these businesses to reclassify wage income as the profits of the firm -- potentially reducing tax revenue. I again find that the effect was small. I show theoretically why this increase in incentive may not have caused a large response, even if the introduction of the incentive caused a much bigger response

An Analysis of the Systemic Risks Posed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and an Evaluation of the Policy Options for Reducing those Risks

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are government-sponsored enterprises that are central players in U.S. secondary mortgage markets. Over the past decade, these institutions have amassed enormous mortgage- and non-mortgage-oriented investment portfolios that pose significant interest-rate risks to the companies and a systemic risk to the financial system. This paper describes the nature of these risks and systemic concerns and then evaluates several policy options for reducing the institutions’ investment portfolios. We conclude that limits on portfolio size (assets or liabilities) would be the most desirable approach to mitigating the systemic risk posed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Vocal learning-associated convergent evolution in mammalian proteins and regulatory elements.

Vocal production learning (vocal learning) is a convergently evolved trait in vertebrates. To identify brain genomic elements associated with mammalian vocal learning, we integrated genomic, anatomical, and neurophysiological data from the Egyptian fruit bat (Rousettus aegyptiacus) with analyses of the genomes of 215 placental mammals. First, we identified a set of proteins evolving more slowly in vocal learners. Then, we discovered a vocal motor cortical region in the Egyptian fruit bat, an emergent vocal learner, and leveraged that knowledge to identify active cis-regulatory elements in the motor cortex of vocal learners. Machine learning methods applied to motor cortex open chromatin revealed 50 enhancers robustly associated with vocal learning whose activity tended to be lower in vocal learners. Our research implicates convergent losses of motor cortex regulatory elements in mammalian vocal learning evolution

Albiglutide and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (Harmony Outcomes): a double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial

Background: Glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists differ in chemical structure, duration of action, and in their effects on clinical outcomes. The cardiovascular effects of once-weekly albiglutide in type 2 diabetes are unknown. We aimed to determine the safety and efficacy of albiglutide in preventing cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke. Methods: We did a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial in 610 sites across 28 countries. We randomly assigned patients aged 40 years and older with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (at a 1:1 ratio) to groups that either received a subcutaneous injection of albiglutide (30–50 mg, based on glycaemic response and tolerability) or of a matched volume of placebo once a week, in addition to their standard care. Investigators used an interactive voice or web response system to obtain treatment assignment, and patients and all study investigators were masked to their treatment allocation. We hypothesised that albiglutide would be non-inferior to placebo for the primary outcome of the first occurrence of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke, which was assessed in the intention-to-treat population. If non-inferiority was confirmed by an upper limit of the 95% CI for a hazard ratio of less than 1·30, closed testing for superiority was prespecified. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02465515. Findings: Patients were screened between July 1, 2015, and Nov 24, 2016. 10 793 patients were screened and 9463 participants were enrolled and randomly assigned to groups: 4731 patients were assigned to receive albiglutide and 4732 patients to receive placebo. On Nov 8, 2017, it was determined that 611 primary endpoints and a median follow-up of at least 1·5 years had accrued, and participants returned for a final visit and discontinuation from study treatment; the last patient visit was on March 12, 2018. These 9463 patients, the intention-to-treat population, were evaluated for a median duration of 1·6 years and were assessed for the primary outcome. The primary composite outcome occurred in 338 (7%) of 4731 patients at an incidence rate of 4·6 events per 100 person-years in the albiglutide group and in 428 (9%) of 4732 patients at an incidence rate of 5·9 events per 100 person-years in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·78, 95% CI 0·68–0·90), which indicated that albiglutide was superior to placebo (p<0·0001 for non-inferiority; p=0·0006 for superiority). The incidence of acute pancreatitis (ten patients in the albiglutide group and seven patients in the placebo group), pancreatic cancer (six patients in the albiglutide group and five patients in the placebo group), medullary thyroid carcinoma (zero patients in both groups), and other serious adverse events did not differ between the two groups. There were three (<1%) deaths in the placebo group that were assessed by investigators, who were masked to study drug assignment, to be treatment-related and two (<1%) deaths in the albiglutide group. Interpretation: In patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease, albiglutide was superior to placebo with respect to major adverse cardiovascular events. Evidence-based glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists should therefore be considered as part of a comprehensive strategy to reduce the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes. Funding: GlaxoSmithKline

Micromechanical Properties of Injection-Molded Starch–Wood Particle Composites

The micromechanical properties of injection molded starch–wood particle composites were investigated as a function of particle content and humidity conditions. The composite materials were characterized by scanning electron microscopy and X-ray diffraction methods. The microhardness of the composites was shown to increase notably with the concentration of the wood particles. In addition,creep behavior under the indenter and temperature dependence were evaluated in terms of the independent contribution of the starch matrix and the wood microparticles to the hardness value. The influence of drying time on the density and weight uptake of the injection-molded composites was highlighted. The results revealed the role of the mechanism of water evaporation, showing that the dependence of water uptake and temperature was greater for the starch–wood composites than for the pure starch sample. Experiments performed during the drying process at 70°C indicated that the wood in the starch composites did not prevent water loss from the samples.Peer reviewe

A multilayered post-GWAS assessment on genetic susceptibility to pancreatic cancer

Funder: Fundación Científica Asociación Española Contra el Cáncer (ES)Funder: Cancer Focus Northern Ireland and Department for Employment and LearningFunder: Intramural Research Program of the Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, USAAbstract: Background: Pancreatic cancer (PC) is a complex disease in which both non-genetic and genetic factors interplay. To date, 40 GWAS hits have been associated with PC risk in individuals of European descent, explaining 4.1% of the phenotypic variance. Methods: We complemented a new conventional PC GWAS (1D) with genome spatial autocorrelation analysis (2D) permitting to prioritize low frequency variants not detected by GWAS. These were further expanded via Hi-C map (3D) interactions to gain additional insight into the inherited basis of PC. In silico functional analysis of public genomic information allowed prioritization of potentially relevant candidate variants. Results: We identified several new variants located in genes for which there is experimental evidence of their implication in the biology and function of pancreatic acinar cells. Among them is a novel independent variant in NR5A2 (rs3790840) with a meta-analysis p value = 5.91E−06 in 1D approach and a Local Moran’s Index (LMI) = 7.76 in 2D approach. We also identified a multi-hit region in CASC8—a lncRNA associated with pancreatic carcinogenesis—with a lowest p value = 6.91E−05. Importantly, two new PC loci were identified both by 2D and 3D approaches: SIAH3 (LMI = 18.24), CTRB2/BCAR1 (LMI = 6.03), in addition to a chromatin interacting region in XBP1—a major regulator of the ER stress and unfolded protein responses in acinar cells—identified by 3D; all of them with a strong in silico functional support. Conclusions: This multi-step strategy, combined with an in-depth in silico functional analysis, offers a comprehensive approach to advance the study of PC genetic susceptibility and could be applied to other diseases

General anaesthetic and airway management practice for obstetric surgery in England: a prospective, multi-centre observational study

There are no current descriptions of general anaesthesia characteristics for obstetric surgery, despite recent changes to patient baseline characteristics and airway management guidelines. This analysis of data from the direct reporting of awareness in maternity patients' (DREAMY) study of accidental awareness during obstetric anaesthesia aimed to describe practice for obstetric general anaesthesia in England and compare with earlier surveys and best-practice recommendations. Consenting patients who received general anaesthesia for obstetric surgery in 72 hospitals from May 2017 to August 2018 were included. Baseline characteristics, airway management, anaesthetic techniques and major complications were collected. Descriptive analysis, binary logistic regression modelling and comparisons with earlier data were conducted. Data were collected from 3117 procedures, including 2554 (81.9%) caesarean deliveries. Thiopental was the induction drug in 1649 (52.9%) patients, compared with propofol in 1419 (45.5%). Suxamethonium was the neuromuscular blocking drug for tracheal intubation in 2631 (86.1%), compared with rocuronium in 367 (11.8%). Difficult tracheal intubation was reported in 1 in 19 (95%CI 1 in 16-22) and failed intubation in 1 in 312 (95%CI 1 in 169-667). Obese patients were over-represented compared with national baselines and associated with difficult, but not failed intubation. There was more evidence of change in practice for induction drugs (increased use of propofol) than neuromuscular blocking drugs (suxamethonium remains the most popular). There was evidence of improvement in practice, with increased monitoring and reversal of neuromuscular blockade (although this remains suboptimal). Despite a high risk of difficult intubation in this population, videolaryngoscopy was rarely used (1.9%)