Response surface methods applied to submarine concept exploration

CIVINS (Civilian Institutions) Thesis documentIt is estimated that 70 to 85 percent of a naval ship's life-cycle cost is determined during the concept exploration phase which places an importance in the methodology used by the designer to select the concept design. But trade-off studies are guided primarily by past experience, rules-of-thumb, and designer preference. This approach is ad hoc, not efficient and may not lead to an optimum concept design. Even worse, once the designer has a 'good' concept design, he has no process or methodology to determine whether a better concept design is possible or not. A methodology is required to search the design space for an optimal solution based on the specified preferences from the customer. But the difficulty is the design space, which is non-linear, discontinuous, and bounded by a variety of constraints, goals, and thresholds. Then the design process itself is difficult to optimize because of the coupling among decomposed engineering disciplines and sub-system interactions. These attributes prevent application of mature optimization techniques including Lagrange multipliers, steepest ascent methods, linear programming, non-linear programming, and dynamic programming. To further improve submarine concept exploration, this thesis examines a statistical technique called Response Surface Methods (RSM). The purpose of RSM is to lead to an understanding of the relationship between the input (factors) and Output (response) variables, often to further the optimization of the underlying process. The RSM approach allows the designers to find a local optimal and examine how the design factors affect the response in the region around the generated optimal point.http://archive.org/details/responsesurfacem1094510921CIVIN

Response surface methods applied to submarine concept exploration

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Ocean Engineering; and, (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, 2001.Includes bibliographical references (leaf 89).It is estimated that 70 to 85 percent of a naval ship's life-cycle cost is determined during the concept exploration phase which places an importance in the methodology used by the designer to select the concept design. But trade-off studies are guided primarily by past experience, rules-of-thumb, and designer preference. This approach is ad hoc, not efficient and may not lead to an optimum concept design. Even worse, once the designer has a "good" concept design, he has no process or methodology to determine whether a better concept design is possible or not. A methodology is required to search the design space for an optimal solution based on the specified preferences from the customer. But the difficultly is the design space, which is non-linear, discontinuous, and bounded by a variety of constraints, goals, and thresholds. Then the design process itself is difficult to optimize because of the coupling among decomposed engineering disciplines and sub-system interactions. These attributes prevent application of mature optimization techniques including Lagrange multipliers, steepest ascent methods, linear programming, non-linear programming, and dynamic programming. To further improve submarine concept exploration, this thesis examines a statistical technique called Response Surface Methods (RSM). The purpose of RSM is to lead to an understanding of the relationship between the input (factors) and output (response) variables, often to further the optimization of the underlying process. The RSM approach allows the designers to find a local optimal and examine how the design factors affect the response in the region around the generated optimal point. RSM can be applied to submarine concept exploration and provide a methodology to: determine the optimal concept design based on customer preference, efficiently perform trade-off studies, determine the feasible design space, and the ability to determine in advance if a specified concept design is feasible and meets all the customer thresholds and constraints.by David A. Goggins.S.M

Comprehensive Genomic Analysis of a BRCA2 Deficient Human Pancreatic Cancer

Capan-1 is a well-characterised BRCA2-deficient human cell line isolated from a liver metastasis of a pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Here we report a genome-wide assessment of structural variations and high-depth exome characterization of single nucleotide variants and small insertion/deletions in Capan-1. To identify potential somatic and tumour-associated variations in the absence of a matched-normal cell line, we devised a novel method based on the analysis of HapMap samples. We demonstrate that Capan-1 has one of the most rearranged genomes sequenced to date. Furthermore, small insertions and deletions are detected more frequently in the context of short sequence repeats than in other genomes. We also identify a number of novel mutations that may represent genetic changes that have contributed to tumour progression. These data provide insight into the genomic effects of loss of BRCA2 function

Genome-wide association study identifies multiple susceptibility loci for pancreatic cancer

We performed a multistage genome-wide association study including 7,683 individuals with pancreatic cancer and 14,397 controls of European descent. Four new loci reached genome-wide significance: rs6971499 at 7q32.3 (LINC-PINT, per-allele odds ratio (OR) = 0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.74-0.84, P = 3.0 x 10(-12)), rs7190458 at 16q23.1 (BCAR1/CTRB1/CTRB2, OR = 1.46, 95% CI 1.30-1.65, P = 1.1 x 10(-10)), rs9581943 at 13q12.2 (PDX1, OR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.10-1.20, P = 2.4 x 10(-9)) and rs16986825 at 22q12.1 (ZNRF3, OR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.12-1.25, P = 1.2 x 10(-8)). We identified an independent signal in exon 2 of TERT at the established region 5p15.33 (rs2736098, OR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.76-0.85, P = 9.8 x 10(-14)). We also identified a locus at 8q24.21 (rs1561927, P = 1.3 x 10(-7)) that approached genome-wide significance located 455 kb telomeric of PVT1. Our study identified multiple new susceptibility alleles for pancreatic cancer that are worthy of follow-up studies

Particulate matter exposure during pregnancy is associated with birth weight, but not gestational age, 1962-1992: a cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Exposure to air pollutants is suggested to adversely affect fetal growth, but the evidence remains inconsistent in relation to specific outcomes and exposure windows.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using birth records from the two major maternity hospitals in Newcastle upon Tyne in northern England between 1961 and 1992, we constructed a database of all births to mothers resident within the city. Weekly black smoke exposure levels from routine data recorded at 20 air pollution monitoring stations were obtained and individual exposures were estimated via a two-stage modeling strategy, incorporating temporally and spatially varying covariates. Regression analyses, including 88,679 births, assessed potential associations between exposure to black smoke and birth weight, gestational age and birth weight standardized for gestational age and sex.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Significant associations were seen between black smoke and both standardized and unstandardized birth weight, but not for gestational age when adjusted for potential confounders. Not all associations were linear. For an increase in whole pregnancy black smoke exposure, from the 1^st(7.4 μg/m³) to the 25^th(17.2 μg/m³), 50^th(33.8 μg/m³), 75^th(108.3 μg/m³), and 90^th(180.8 μg/m³) percentiles, the adjusted estimated decreases in birth weight were 33 g (SE 1.05), 62 g (1.63), 98 g (2.26) and 109 g (2.44) respectively. A significant interaction was observed between socio-economic deprivation and black smoke on both standardized and unstandardized birth weight with increasing effects of black smoke in reducing birth weight seen with increasing socio-economic disadvantage.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The findings of this study progress the hypothesis that the association between black smoke and birth weight may be mediated through intrauterine growth restriction. The associations between black smoke and birth weight were of the same order of magnitude as those reported for passive smoking. These findings add to the growing evidence of the harmful effects of air pollution on birth outcomes.</p

Three new pancreatic cancer susceptibility signals identified on chromosomes 1q32.1, 5p15.33 and 8q24.21.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified common pancreatic cancer susceptibility variants at 13 chromosomal loci in individuals of European descent. To identify new susceptibility variants, we performed imputation based on 1000 Genomes (1000G) Project data and association analysis using 5,107 case and 8,845 control subjects from 27 cohort and case-control studies that participated in the PanScan I-III GWAS. This analysis, in combination with a two-staged replication in an additional 6,076 case and 7,555 control subjects from the PANcreatic Disease ReseArch (PANDoRA) and Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control (PanC4) Consortia uncovered 3 new pancreatic cancer risk signals marked by single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) rs2816938 at chromosome 1q32.1 (per allele odds ratio (OR) = 1.20, P = 4.88x10 -15), rs10094872 at 8q24.21 (OR = 1.15, P = 3.22x10 -9) and rs35226131 at 5p15.33 (OR = 0.71, P = 1.70x10 -8). These SNPs represent independent risk variants at previously identified pancreatic cancer risk loci on chr1q32.1 ( NR5A2), chr8q24.21 ( MYC) and chr5p15.33 ( CLPTM1L- TERT) as per analyses conditioned on previously reported susceptibility variants. We assessed expression of candidate genes at the three risk loci in histologically normal ( n = 10) and tumor ( n = 8) derived pancreatic tissue samples and observed a marked reduction of NR5A2 expression (chr1q32.1) in the tumors (fold change -7.6, P = 5.7x10 -8). This finding was validated in a second set of paired ( n = 20) histologically normal and tumor derived pancreatic tissue samples (average fold change for three NR5A2 isoforms -31.3 to -95.7, P = 7.5x10 -4-2.0x10 -3). Our study has identified new susceptibility variants independently conferring pancreatic cancer risk that merit functional follow-up to identify target genes and explain the underlying biology

Detectable clonal mosaicism and its relationship to aging and cancer

In an analysis of 31,717 cancer cases and 26,136 cancer-free controls from 13 genome-wide association studies, we observed large chromosomal abnormalities in a subset of clones in DNA obtained from blood or buccal samples. We observed mosaic abnormalities, either aneuploidy or copy-neutral loss of heterozygosity, of >2 Mb in size in autosomes of 517 individuals (0.89%), with abnormal cell proportions of between 7% and 95%. In cancer-free individuals, frequency increased with age, from 0.23% under 50 years to 1.91% between 75 and 79 years (P = 4.8 × 10(-8)). Mosaic abnormalities were more frequent in individuals with solid tumors (0.97% versus 0.74% in cancer-free individuals; odds ratio (OR) = 1.25; P = 0.016), with stronger association with cases who had DNA collected before diagnosis or treatment (OR = 1.45; P = 0.0005). Detectable mosaicism was also more common in individuals for whom DNA was collected at least 1 year before diagnosis with leukemia compared to cancer-free individuals (OR = 35.4; P = 3.8 × 10(-11)). These findings underscore the time-dependent nature of somatic events in the etiology of cancer and potentially other late-onset diseases

Genome-wide association study identifies multiple susceptibility loci for pancreatic cancer

We performed a multistage genome-wide association study (GWAS) including 7,683 individuals with pancreatic cancer and 14,397 controls of European descent. Four new loci reached genome-wide significance: rs6971499 at 7q32.3 (LINC-PINT; per-allele odds ratio [OR] = 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.74–0.84; P = 3.0×10−12), rs7190458 at 16q23.1 (BCAR1/CTRB1/CTRB2; OR = 1.46; 95% CI = 1.30–1.65; P = 1.1×10−10), rs9581943 at 13q12.2 (PDX1; OR = 1.15; 95% CI = 1.10–1.20; P = 2.4×10−9), and rs16986825 at 22q12.1 (ZNRF3; OR = 1.18; 95% CI = 1.12–1.25; P = 1.2×10−8). An independent signal was identified in exon 2 of TERT at the established region 5p15.33 (rs2736098; OR = 0.80; 95% CI = 0.76–0.85; P = 9.8×10−14). We also identified a locus at 8q24.21 (rs1561927; P = 1.3×10−7) that approached genome-wide significance located 455 kb telomeric of PVT1. Our study has identified multiple new susceptibility alleles for pancreatic cancer worthy of follow-up studies

Measures of frailty in population-based studies: An overview

Although research productivity in the field of frailty has risen exponentially in recent years, there remains a lack of consensus regarding the measurement of this syndrome. This overview offers three services: first, we provide a comprehensive catalogue of current frailty measures; second, we evaluate their reliability and validity; third, we report on their popularity of use