Combat modeling for Command, Control, and Communications: a primer

This thesis is a primer for a combat modeling course for Joint Command, Control, and Communications (C3) students at the Naval Postgraduate School. It provides the students with a single document which ties together the concepts of several modeling experts pertinent to C3. The thesis examines various aspects of combat models and introduces some of their functions, applications, and results. Areas included in the primer are: combat theory and definitions for command and control reflected in that theory; modeling techniques; measures of effectiveness; attrition models, particularly Lanchester type equations; history of naval modeling; and a survey of current modeling efforts, such as simulation, Chaos Theory, and Decision Support Aids. The thesis introduces basic concepts and identifies readings from which those concepts were extracted. It does not teach students to develop combat models, though it gives insight into how the application affects proper model selection.http://archive.org/details/combatmodelingfo1094530724Lieutenant, United States NavyCaptain, United States Air ForceApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Digenic Alport Syndrome

Digenic Alport syndrome refers to the inheritance of pathogenic variants in COL4A5 plus COL4A3 or COL4A4 or in COL4A3 plus COL4A4. Where digenic Alport syndrome includes a pathogenic COL4A5 variant, the consequences depend on the sex of the affected individual, COL4A5 variant ?severity,? and the nature of the COL4A3 or COL4A4 change. A man with a pathogenic COL4A5 variant has all his collagen IV ?3?4?5-heterotrimers affected, and an additional COL4A3 or COL4A4 variant may not worsen disease. A woman with a pathogenic COL4A5 variant has on average 50% of her heterotrimers affected, which is increased to 75% with a further COL4A3 or COL4A4 variant and associated with a higher risk of proteinuria. In digenic Alport syndrome with pathogenic COL4A3 and COL4A4 variants, 75% of the heterotrimers are affected. The COL4A3 and COL4A4 genes occur head-to-head on chromosome 2, and inheritance is autosomal dominant when both variants affect the same chromosome (in cis) or recessive when they affect different chromosomes (in trans). This form of digenic disease results in increased proteinuria and a median age of kidney failure intermediate between autosomal dominant and autosomal recessive Alport syndrome. Previous guidelines have suggested that all pathogenic or likely pathogenic digenic variants should be identified and reported. Affected family members should be identified, treated, and discouraged from kidney donation. Inheritance within a family is easier to predict if the two variants are considered independently and if COL4A3 and COL4A4 variants are known to be inherited on the same or different chromosomes

Genotype-phenotype correlations for COL4A3-COL4A5 variants resulting in Gly substitutions in Alport syndrome

Alport syndrome is the commonest inherited kidney disease and nearly half the pathogenic variants in the COL4A3-COL4A5 genes that cause Alport syndrome result in Gly substitutions. This study examined the molecular characteristics of Gly substitutions that determine the severity of clinical features. Pathogenic COL4A5 variants affecting Gly in the Leiden Open Variation Database in males with X-linked Alport syndrome were correlated with age at kidney failure (n = 157) and hearing loss diagnosis (n = 80). Heterozygous pathogenic COL4A3 and COL4A4 variants affecting Gly (n = 304) in autosomal dominant Alport syndrome were correlated with the risk of haematuria in the UK 100,000 Genomes Project. Gly substitutions were stratified by exon location (1 to 20 or 21 to carboxyl terminus), being adjacent to a non-collagenous region (interruption or terminus), and the degree of instability caused by the replacement residue. Pathogenic COL4A5 variants that resulted in a Gly substitution with a highly destabilising residue reduced the median age at kidney failure by 7 years (p = 0.002), and age at hearing loss diagnosis by 21 years (p = 0.004). Substitutions adjacent to a non-collagenous region delayed kidney failure by 19 years (p = 0.014). Heterozygous pathogenic COL4A3 and COL4A4 variants that resulted in a Gly substitution with a highly destabilising residue (Arg, Val, Glu, Asp, Trp) were associated with an increased risk of haematuria (p = 0.018), and those adjacent to a non-collagenous region were associated with a reduced risk (p = 0.046). Exon location had no effect. In addition, COL4A5 variants adjacent to non-collagenous regions were over-represented in the normal population in gnomAD (p < 0.001). The nature of the substitution and of nearby residues determine the risk of haematuria, early onset kidney failure and hearing loss for Gly substitutions in X-linked and autosomal dominant Alport syndrome

Network Archaeology: Uncovering Ancient Networks from Present-day Interactions

Often questions arise about old or extinct networks. What proteins interacted in a long-extinct ancestor species of yeast? Who were the central players in the Last.fm social network 3 years ago? Our ability to answer such questions has been limited by the unavailability of past versions of networks. To overcome these limitations, we propose several algorithms for reconstructing a network's history of growth given only the network as it exists today and a generative model by which the network is believed to have evolved. Our likelihood-based method finds a probable previous state of the network by reversing the forward growth model. This approach retains node identities so that the history of individual nodes can be tracked. We apply these algorithms to uncover older, non-extant biological and social networks believed to have grown via several models, including duplication-mutation with complementarity, forest fire, and preferential attachment. Through experiments on both synthetic and real-world data, we find that our algorithms can estimate node arrival times, identify anchor nodes from which new nodes copy links, and can reveal significant features of networks that have long since disappeared.Comment: 16 pages, 10 figure

Treatment seeking behaviours, antibiotic use and relationships to multi-drug resistance : a study of urinary tract infection patients in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda

Antibacterial resistance (ABR) is a major public health threat. An important accelerating factor is treatment-seeking behaviour, including inappropriate antibiotic (AB) use. In many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) this includes taking ABs with and without prescription sourced from various providers, including health facilities and community drug sellers. However, investigations of complex treatment-seeking, AB use and drug resistance in LMICs are scarce. The Holistic Approach to Unravel Antibacterial Resistance in East Africa (HATUA) Consortium collected questionnaire and microbiological data from adult outpatients with urinary tract infection (UTI)-like symptoms presenting at healthcare facilities in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. Using data from 6,388 patients, we analysed patterns of self-reported treatment seeking behaviours (‘patient pathways’) using process mining and single-channel sequence analysis. Among those with microbiologically confirmed UTI (n = 1,946), we used logistic regression to assess the relationship between treatment seeking behaviour, AB use, and the likelihood of having a multi-drug resistant (MDR) UTI. The most common treatment pathway for UTI-like symptoms in this sample involved attending health facilities, rather than other providers like drug sellers. Patients from sites in Tanzania and Uganda, where over 50% of patients had an MDR UTI, were more likely to report treatment failures, and have repeat visits to providers than those from Kenyan sites, where MDR UTI proportions were lower (33%). There was no strong or consistent relationship between individual AB use and likelihood of MDR UTI, after accounting for country context. The results highlight the hurdles East African patients face in accessing effective UTI care. These challenges are exacerbated by high rates of MDR UTI, suggesting a vicious cycle of failed treatment attempts and sustained selection for drug resistance. Whilst individual AB use may contribute to the risk of MDR UTI, our data show that factors related to context are stronger drivers of variations in ABR.Peer reviewe

Eight common genetic variants associated with serum dheas levels suggest a key role in ageing mechanisms

Dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate (DHEAS) is the most abundant circulating steroid secreted by adrenal glands-yet its function is unknown. Its serum concentration declines significantly with increasing age, which has led to speculation that a relative DHEAS deficiency may contribute to the development of common age-related diseases or diminished longevity. We conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association data with 14,846 individuals and identified eight independent common SNPs associated with serum DHEAS concentrations. Genes at or near the identified loci include ZKSCAN5 (rs11761528; p = 3.15×10-36), SULT2A1 (rs2637125; p = 2.61×10-19), ARPC1A (rs740160; p = 1.56×10-16), TRIM4 (rs17277546; p = 4.50×10-11), BMF (rs7181230; p = 5.44×10-11), HHEX (rs2497306; p = 4.64×10-9), BCL2L11 (rs6738028; p = 1.72×10-8), and CYP2C9 (rs2185570; p = 2.29×10-8). These genes are associated with type 2 diabetes, lymphoma, actin filament assembly, drug and xenobiotic metabolism, and zinc finger proteins. Several SNPs were associated with changes in gene expression levels, and the related genes are connected to biological pathways linking DHEAS with ageing. This study provides much needed insight into the function of DHEAS

Learning and Long-Term Retention of Large-Scale Artificial Languages

Recovering discrete words from continuous speech is one of the first challenges facing language learners. Infants and adults can make use of the statistical structure of utterances to learn the forms of words from unsegmented input, suggesting that this ability may be useful for bootstrapping language-specific cues to segmentation. It is unknown, however, whether performance shown in small-scale laboratory demonstrations of “statistical learning” can scale up to allow learning of the lexicons of natural languages, which are orders of magnitude larger. Artificial language experiments with adults can be used to test whether the mechanisms of statistical learning are in principle scalable to larger lexicons. We report data from a large-scale learning experiment that demonstrates that adults can learn words from unsegmented input in much larger languages than previously documented and that they retain the words they learn for years. These results suggest that statistical word segmentation could be scalable to the challenges of lexical acquisition in natural language learning.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (NSF DDRIG #0746251

The Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey of SDSS-III

The Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) is designed to measure the scale of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) in the clustering of matter over a larger volume than the combined efforts of all previous spectroscopic surveys of large scale structure. BOSS uses 1.5 million luminous galaxies as faint as i=19.9 over 10,000 square degrees to measure BAO to redshifts z<0.7. Observations of neutral hydrogen in the Lyman alpha forest in more than 150,000 quasar spectra (g<22) will constrain BAO over the redshift range 2.15<z<3.5. Early results from BOSS include the first detection of the large-scale three-dimensional clustering of the Lyman alpha forest and a strong detection from the Data Release 9 data set of the BAO in the clustering of massive galaxies at an effective redshift z = 0.57. We project that BOSS will yield measurements of the angular diameter distance D_A to an accuracy of 1.0% at redshifts z=0.3 and z=0.57 and measurements of H(z) to 1.8% and 1.7% at the same redshifts. Forecasts for Lyman alpha forest constraints predict a measurement of an overall dilation factor that scales the highly degenerate D_A(z) and H^{-1}(z) parameters to an accuracy of 1.9% at z~2.5 when the survey is complete. Here, we provide an overview of the selection of spectroscopic targets, planning of observations, and analysis of data and data quality of BOSS.Comment: 49 pages, 16 figures, accepted by A

Utilisation of an operative difficulty grading scale for laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background A reliable system for grading operative difficulty of laparoscopic cholecystectomy would standardise description of findings and reporting of outcomes. The aim of this study was to validate a difficulty grading system (Nassar scale), testing its applicability and consistency in two large prospective datasets. Methods Patient and disease-related variables and 30-day outcomes were identified in two prospective cholecystectomy databases: the multi-centre prospective cohort of 8820 patients from the recent CholeS Study and the single-surgeon series containing 4089 patients. Operative data and patient outcomes were correlated with Nassar operative difficultly scale, using Kendall’s tau for dichotomous variables, or Jonckheere–Terpstra tests for continuous variables. A ROC curve analysis was performed, to quantify the predictive accuracy of the scale for each outcome, with continuous outcomes dichotomised, prior to analysis. Results A higher operative difficulty grade was consistently associated with worse outcomes for the patients in both the reference and CholeS cohorts. The median length of stay increased from 0 to 4 days, and the 30-day complication rate from 7.6 to 24.4% as the difficulty grade increased from 1 to 4/5 (both p < 0.001). In the CholeS cohort, a higher difficulty grade was found to be most strongly associated with conversion to open and 30-day mortality (AUROC = 0.903, 0.822, respectively). On multivariable analysis, the Nassar operative difficultly scale was found to be a significant independent predictor of operative duration, conversion to open surgery, 30-day complications and 30-day reintervention (all p < 0.001). Conclusion We have shown that an operative difficulty scale can standardise the description of operative findings by multiple grades of surgeons to facilitate audit, training assessment and research. It provides a tool for reporting operative findings, disease severity and technical difficulty and can be utilised in future research to reliably compare outcomes according to case mix and intra-operative difficulty