Exchange Rate, Expected Profit, and Capital Stock Adjustment: Japanese Experience

This paper empirically investigates the impact of exchange rate shocks on corporate investment. An intertemporal optimization model is developed in which an individual corporation in an open economy adjusts its capital stock according to the Tobinfs q, which represents the future stream of the profit rate and changes by the real exchange rate. By explicitly considering the marginal q, the transmission mechanism from real exchange rate shocks to investment dynamics via expected profitability is examined based on the Vector Autoregressive model. Empirical evidence suggests that the depreciation of the Japanese yen increases the expected profitability of the firm and stimulates corporate investment, especially in the machinery sector. This characteristic basically corresponds to the structure of external exposure and offers an important finding from the viewpoint of Japanese macroeconomic fluctuations.Intertemporal Optimization, Marginal q, Pass-Through, Export Exposure

Structural and Cyclical Movements of the Current Account in the U.S. 1976-2007

The purpose of this study is to analyze fluctuations in the current account of the U.S. by deconstructing structural and non-structural components with a new method. At the beginning of the 1980s, most components of the U.S. current account were structural. After the Plaza agreement in 1985, the U.S structural current account gradually improved. Since the end of the 1990s, the structural current account deficit increased to nearly 3% of GDP. These movements are generally associated with the structural components of private savings and residential investments. The upheaval in the US sub-prime home-loan market since 2007 sharply contracted housing investment and weakened consumption. Some simulations explored herein suggest a high possibility that these dynamics in domestic demand may considerably ameliorate the external imbalances of the U.S. and deteriorate of the dollar.Structural current account, Intertemporal optimization, Permanent income, Housing Investment, Equilibrium exchange rate

Empirical analysis of import demand behavior of least developed countries

This paper examines the long-run stability of import demand function in Least Developed Countries (LDC) using recently developed panel cointegration techniques. We test for cointegration using two data sets: a) annual data for 15 countries between 1965 and 2004 and b) annual data for 22 countries between 1984 and 2004. We find that cointegration is present and that, indeed, there is a stable import demand function in these economies. The income elasticity ranges from 1.26 to 1.69 and price elasticity ranges from -0.72 to -0.75.import demand, panel unit root, panel cointegration, LDC

Empirical Analysis of Export Demand Behavior of LDCs: Panel Cointegration Approach

In this paper, we use panel data to empirically analyze the stability of the export functions of LDCs for the period 1980-2004 using the nonstationary panel time series analysis. We find that the use of panel data for the region of the LDC clearly supports a cointegrating relationship. Our empirical results also show that price elasticity ranges between -0.24 and -0.34 and income elasticity ranges between 1.36 and 1.79 for the panel of LDCs.LDCs; export demand function; panel unit root; panel cointegration

Capital Accumulation, Vintage, and Productivity:The Japanese Experience from 1980 to 2007

In this paper we quantitatively examine the relationships between capital accumulation and vintage, as well as productivity of industries in Japan between 1980 and 2007. We based this analysis on a detailed measurement of capital stock as reported in financial data of firms listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and several secondary markets, like Mothers, We measured the vintage index and total factor productivity and carried out preliminary work required during empirical analysis. Subsequently, we conducted different kinds of estimations. Based on the empirical analyses, we confirmed that vintage had an effect on productivity in all industries studied. This effect was notable in the material, general machinery and transport equipment industries. In addition, by observing chronological changes of the vintage effect, we confirmed that vintage exerted a significant influence during the period of economic expansion,.particularly during the economic upturn which started in 2000, where strong vintage effects were generally observed in all the industries. It was clear that the rejuvenation of capital equipments during that period resulted out of the existence of a strong productivity effect. On the other hand, during the bubble period of late 1980s, vintage exerted no observable effects on productivity despite vivacious increases in investment.This shows that investment during this period was not necessarily productive and was likely to produce just a temporary boom. In light of this, we reconfirmed that the relationship between vintage and productivity changed in subtle ways in response to the phases of economic cycles.Capital Accumulation, Vintage, Business Cycle

Empirical Analysis of Import Demand Behavior of Least Developed Countries

This paper examines the long-run stability of import demand function in least developed countries (LDCs) using recently developed panel cointegration techniques. We test for cointegration using two data sets: a) annual data for 15 countries from 1965 to 2004; and b) annual data for 22 countries from 1984 to 2004. We find that cointegration is present and that, indeed, there is a stable import demand function in these economies. The income elasticity ranges from 1.26 to 1.69 and price elasticity ranges from -0.72 to -0.75.import demand, panel unit root, panel cointegration, LDCs

The effort to stabilise the financial system in Japan: an outline and the characteristics of the programme for financial revival. Bruegel Working Paper 2015/02, 18 March 2015

This Working Paper provides an overview of the Programme for Financial Revival announced in October 2002 in Japan. The programme aimed to dramatically reduce the large amount of non-performing loans that remained until the end of the 1990s. In addition to solving the problem of bad loans, the Programme for Financial Revival aimed to build a strong financial system. For this purpose, the programme comprised three pillars: 1) creation of a new framework for the financial system, 2) creation of a new framework for corporate revitalisation, 3) creation of a new framework for financial administration. The Japanese experience suggests that despite its delayed introduction, this programme may be considered successful in going some way to drastically reduce non-performing loans and stabilise the financial system. Japan’s financial problems and their resolution since the 1990s provide a number of lessons for other economies, particularly for Europe in relation to the difficulties over the euro