South Asian monsoon history over the past 60 kyr recorded by radiogenic isotopes and clay mineral assemblages in the Andaman Sea

The Late Quaternary variability of the South Asian (or Indian) monsoon has been linked with glacial‐interglacial and millennial scale climatic changes but past rainfall intensity in the river catchments draining into the Andaman Sea remains poorly constrained. Here we use radiogenic Sr, Nd, and Pb isotope compositions of the detrital clay‐size fraction and clay mineral assemblages obtained from sediment core NGHP Site 17 in the Andaman Sea to reconstruct the variability of the South Asian monsoon during the past 60 kyr. Over this time interval εNd values changed little, generally oscillating between −7.3 and −5.3 and the Pb isotope signatures are essentially invariable, which is in contrast to a record located further northeast in the Andaman Sea. This indicates that the source of the detrital clays did not change significantly during the last glacial and deglaciation suggesting the monsoon was spatially stable. The most likely source region is the Irrawaddy river catchment including the Indo‐Burman Ranges with a possible minor contribution from the Andaman Islands. High smectite/(illite + chlorite) ratios (up to 14), as well as low 87Sr/86Sr ratios (0.711) for the Holocene period indicate enhanced chemical weathering and a stronger South Asian monsoon compared to marine oxygen isotope stages 2 and 3. Short, smectite‐poor intervals exhibit markedly radiogenic Sr isotope compositions and document weakening of the South Asian monsoon, which may have been linked to short‐term northern Atlantic climate variability on millennial time scales

Die spätquartäre Entwicklung des Südasiatischen Monsuns

The Indian summer or South Asian monsoon (SAM) is a major component of the global climate system that dominates weather patterns and impacts the livelihood of billions of people across the subcontinent. Despite significant improvements over the past decade, the SAM remains difficult to predict and to model. This is directly related to the fact that instrumental records of monsoon precipitation at most date back few centuries. Consequently, the need to generate proxy records of monsoon precipitation and analysis of paleoclimate data is crucial to understand the various forcing mechanism of the monsoon on different timescales. In this thesis, the link between interhemispheric insolation changes and monsoon precipitation is explored and a working hypothesis is provided. High-resolution paleoclimate datasets have been generated from three sediment cores in the Andaman Sea. I develop potential proxies of SAM precipitation and perform paleoclimate time series analysis to better understand orbital and sub-orbital forcing mechanisms of the monsoon. The first continuous long-term high resolution records of monsoon precipitation based on paired Mg/Ca and δ18O analyses of near surface dwelling planktonic foraminifera are presented, from which I estimate sea surface temperature (SST) and seawater δ18O (δ18Osw). In addition, monsoon intensity changes are evaluated using proxies such as Ba/Ca, x-ray fluorescence (XRF) Ti/Ca, and Si/Al, which have been associated with the monsoon via different causal linkagesDer indische oder Südasiatische Monsun (SAM) ist eine wichtige Komponente des globalen Klimasystems, das das Wettergeschehen und somit die Existenzgrundlage von Milliarden Menschen innerhalb des Subkontinents kontrolliert. Trotz signifikanter Verbesserungen während der letzten Dekade bleibt es schwierig, den SAM vorherzusagen und zu modellieren. Dies liegt hauptsächlich an der Tatsache, dass instrumentelle Aufzeichnungen des Monsunniederschlags bestenfalls einige Jahrhunderte zurückreichen. Folglich gibt es den klaren Bedarf, den Monsunniederschlag anhand von Proxydaten zu rekonstruieren und die Analyse von Paläoklima-Daten ist entscheidend, um die verschiedenen Mechanismen die den Monsun über lange Zeitskalen antreiben, zu verstehen. Im Rahmen dieser Dissertation wird die Verbindung zwischen der Veränderung von interhemisphärischer Insolationsintensität und Monsunniederschlag untersucht. Hochauflösende paläoklimatische Datenreihen wurden für drei Sedimentkerne aus der Andamansee generiert. Die Analyse der Proxy-Indikatoren für SAM Niederschlag resultierten in paläoklimatischen Zeitserienanalysen, die es möglich machen, orbitale und suborbitale Steuerungsmechanismen des Monsuns besser zu verstehen. Ich präsentiere die ersten langfristigen Aufzeichnungen des Monsunniederschlags basierend auf δ18O Werten des Meerwassers (δ18Osw), die aus kombinierten Mg/Ca (Oberflächenwassertemperaturen) und δ18O Analysen von Foraminiferen, die in den oberen Wasserschichten leben, rekonstruiert wurden. Zusätzlich wurden die Veränderungen der Monsunintensität dadurch untersucht, dass weiteren Proxy-Indijkatoren wie Ba/Ca, XRF Ti/Ca und Si/Al einbezogen wurden, die über unterschiedliche kausale Zusammenhänge mit dem Monsun assoziiert waren

A brief commentary on the interpretation of Chinese speleothem δ18O records as summer monsoon intensity tracers

Zhang et al [...

Oxygen Isotopes in Authigenic Clay Minerals: Toward Building a Reliable Salinity Proxy

Most clay minerals in sedimentary environments have traditionally been considered to be of detrital origin, but under certain conditions, authigenic clay minerals can form at low temperature through the transformation of precursor clays or as direct precipitates from lake water. Such clay minerals can hold important information about the prevailing climatic conditions during the time of deposition. We present the first quantitative reconstruction of salinity in paleolake Olduvai based on the oxygen‐isotope composition of authigenic clay minerals. We provide a framework illustrating that the isotopic signature of authigenic lacustrine clay minerals is related to the isotopic composition of paleo‐waters, and hence to paleosalinity. This new paleosalinity proxy shows that the early Pleistocene East African monsoon was driven by combinations of precession and obliquity forcing and subsequent changes in tropical sea surface temperatures. Such quantitative lacustrine paleosalinity estimates provide a new direction of research for modeling ecosystem change based on an ecologically relevant parameter

Southern Hemisphere forcing of South Asian monsoon precipitation over the past ~1 million years

The orbital-scale timing of South Asian monsoon (SAM) precipitation is poorly understood. Here we present new SST and seawater δ18O (δ18Osw) records from the Bay of Bengal, the core convective region of the South Asian monsoon, over the past 1 million years. Our records reveal that SAM precipitation peaked in the precession band ~9 kyrs after Northern Hemisphere summer insolation maxima, in phase with records of SAM winds in the Arabian Sea and eastern Indian Ocean. Precession-band variance, however, accounts for ~30% of the total variance of SAM precipitation while it was either absent or dominant in records of the East Asian monsoon (EAM). This and the observation that SAM precipitation was phase locked with obliquity minima and was sensitive to Southern Hemisphere warming provides clear evidence that SAM and EAM precipitation responded differently to orbital forcing and highlights the importance of internal processes forcing monsoon variability

Enhanced Late Miocene Chemical Weathering and Altered Precipitation Patterns in the Watersheds of the Bay of Bengal Recorded by Detrital Clay Radiogenic Isotopes

The late Miocene was a period of declining CO2 levels and extensive environmental changes, which likely had a large impact on monsoon strength as well as on the weathering and erosion intensity in the South Asian Monsoon domain. To improve our understanding of these feedback systems, detrital clays from the southern Bay of Bengal (International Ocean Discovery Program Site U1443) were analyzed for the radiogenic isotope compositions of Sr, Nd, and Pb to reconstruct changes in sediment provenance and weathering regime related to South Asian Monsoon rainfall from 9 to 5 Ma. The 100 kyr resolution late Miocene to earliest Pliocene record suggests overall low variability in the provenance of clays deposited on the Ninetyeast Ridge. However, at 7.3 Ma, Nd and Pb isotope compositions indicate a switch to an increased relative contribution from the Irrawaddy River (by ∼10%). This shift occurred during the global benthic δ13C decline, and we suggest that global cooling and increasing aridity resulted in an eastward shift of precipitation patterns leading to a more focused erosion of the Indo‐Burman Ranges. Sr isotope compositions were decoupled from Nd and Pb isotope signatures and became more radiogenic between 6 and 5 Ma. Grassland expansion generating thick, easily weatherable soils may have led to an environment supporting intense chemical weathering, which is likely responsible for the elevated detrital clay 87Sr/86Sr ratios during this time. This change in Sr isotope signatures may also have contributed to the late Miocene increase of the global seawater Sr isotope composition

Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–18 : a modelling study

Background: High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000–18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit. Findings: The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2 ·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1–3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4–1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7–0·9) in Mauritania to 676· 5 (513· 6–888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV incidence (4661·7 [2544·8–8120·3]) cases per 100000 people in 2018 and Inhassunge District, Zambezia Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV mortality rate (1163·0 [679·0–1866·8]) deaths per 100 000 people. Further, the rate of reduction in HIV incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2018, as well as the ratio of new infections to the number of people living with HIV was highly variable. Although most second-level administrative units had declines in the number of new cases (3316 [81· 1%] of 4087 units) and number of deaths (3325 [81·4%]), nearly all appeared well short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths between 2010 and 2020. Interpretation: Our estimates suggest that most second-level administrative units in sub-Saharan Africa are falling short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths by 2020, which is further compounded by substantial within-country variability. These estimates will help decision makers and programme implementers expand access to ART and better target health resources to higher burden subnational areas

Global burden of cardiovascular diseases and risk factors, 1990-2019 : Update from the GBD 2019 Study

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to provide comparable and consistent estimates of population health over time, used all available population-level data sources on incidence, prevalence, case fatality, mortality, and health risks to produce estimates for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Prevalent cases of total CVD nearly doubled from 271 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257 to 285 million) in 1990 to 523 million (95% UI: 497 to 550 million) in 2019, and the number of CVD deaths steadily increased from 12.1 million (95% UI:11.4 to 12.6 million) in 1990, reaching 18.6 million (95% UI: 17.1 to 19.7 million) in 2019. The global trends for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life lost also increased significantly, and years lived with disability doubled from 17.7 million (95% UI: 12.9 to 22.5 million) to 34.4 million (95% UI:24.9 to 43.6 million) over that period. The total number of DALYs due to IHD has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 182 million (95% UI: 170 to 194 million) DALYs, 9.14 million (95% UI: 8.40 to 9.74 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 197 million (95% UI: 178 to 220 million) prevalent cases of IHD in 2019. The total number of DALYs due to stroke has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 143 million (95% UI: 133 to 153 million) DALYs, 6.55 million (95% UI: 6.00 to 7.02 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 101 million (95% UI: 93.2 to 111 million) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019. Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of disease burden in the world. CVD burden continues its decades-long rise for almost all countries outside high-income countries, and alarmingly, the age-standardized rate of CVD has begun to rise in some locations where it was previously declining in high-income countries. There is an urgent need to focus on implementing existing cost-effective policies and interventions if the world is to meet the targets for Sustainable Development Goal 3 and achieve a 30% reduction in premature mortality due to noncommunicable diseases