Do Voters Learn from Presidential Election Campaigns?

Theory: We present a model of voter campaign learning which is based on Bayesian learning models. This model assumes voters are imperfectly informed and that they incorporate new information into their existing perceptions about candidate issue positions in a systematic manner. Hypothesis: Additional information made available to voters about candidate issue positions during the course of a political campaign will lead voters to have more precise perceptions of the issue positions of the candidates involved. Data and Methods: We use panel survey data from the 1976 and 1980 presidential elections, combined with content analyses of the media during these same elections. Our primary analysis is conducted using random effects panel models. Results: We find that during each of these campaigns many voters became better informed about the positions of candidates on many issues and that these changes in voter information are directly related to the information flow during each presidential campaign

Uncertainty and Candidate Personality Traits

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Issue Publics in American Politics

This work examines the existence of heterogeneity in the impact of issues on vote choice in the American electorate. I begin by explaining the reasons for studying heterogeneity in issue weights from both a methodological and substantive perspective. In Chapter 2 I examine the aggregate effect of heterogeneity in costs of information on the measures of issue salience derived from spatial models of voting. I find some evidence that individuals who are uncertain about candidate issue positions do bias these estimates, but the resulting bias is slight in the aggregate. However, the results of this chapter are suggestive, indicating that different voters may use issues differently or not at all, depending on their costs of information. In order to examine this possibility further, individual measures of issue salience must be developed. Chapter 3 explores the utility of using survey questions about issue salience as the solution to this problem. Unfortunately, most of the survey questions currently employed do not prove to be useful in determining issue salience in spatial models of voting. Thus, Chapter 4 attempts to determine individual level issue salience indirectly, using a method that employs rank-ordered data to estimate separate issue weights for each individual on each issue. I find a clear relationship between issue salience and costs of information, with those individuals who face higher costs of information being less likely to place weight on any given issue or consider multiple issues when deciding who to vote for. Although I am able to employ this technique to learn a great deal about the relationship between issue salience and the costs of information, this technique is not suited for most datasets. Therefore, in Chapter 5 I develop a model that allows for heterogeneity in issue weights, but is more widely applicable to the kind of data generally available for studying American elections. I again find evidence of heterogeneity in the impact of issues on vote choice in the American electorate and the role that costs of information play in determining issue salience. Finally, I conclude, discussing my findings and the implications they have for the political process in the United States

Histological Evaluation of Corneal Scar Formation in Pseudophakic Bullous Keratopathy

PURPOSE: To evaluate histological changes in the corneal stroma in pseudophakic bullous keratopathy. METHODS: Twenty-eight patients (28 eyes) with pseudophakic bullous keratopathy underwent therapeutic penetrating keratoplasty at Shandong Eye Institute between January 2006 and November 2011. The patients were divided into two groups according to the duration of bullous keratopathy (<1.0 year group or >1.0 year group), and three buttons from enucleated eyes with choroidal melanoma served as a control. In vivo confocal microscopy examination, hematoxylin-eosin, Masson's trichrome stain and Van Gieson staining were used for microscopic examination. The histological evaluation and scoring of the buttons for morphological changes, including the degree of stromal scars, neovascularization and inflammatory cells within the corneal buttons, were compared. To study the underlying mechanism, connective tissue growth factor (CTGF) and TGF-β immunohistochemistry were performed. RESULTS: Confocal microscopy examination and histological evaluation and scoring of the buttons showed that compared with the <1.0 year group, stromal scars, neovascularization and inflammatory cells were more severe in the >1.0 year group (P<0.05). There was an increase in CTGF- and TGF-β1-positive stromal cells in the >1.0 year group. CONCLUSIONS: During the progression of pseudophakic bullous keratopathy, stromal scars occurred more often in the patients that had a longer duration of disease. Cytokines such as CTGF and TGF-β1 may play a role in this pathological process and deserve further investigation

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700

Diabetic ketoacidosis

Diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) is the most common acute hyperglycaemic emergency in people with diabetes mellitus. A diagnosis of DKA is confirmed when all of the three criteria are present — ‘D’, either elevated blood glucose levels or a family history of diabetes mellitus; ‘K’, the presence of high urinary or blood ketoacids; and ‘A’, a high anion gap metabolic acidosis. Early diagnosis and management are paramount to improve patient outcomes. The mainstays of treatment include restoration of circulating volume, insulin therapy, electrolyte replacement and treatment of any underlying precipitating event. Without optimal treatment, DKA remains a condition with appreciable, although largely preventable, morbidity and mortality. In this Primer, we discuss the epidemiology, pathogenesis, risk factors and diagnosis of DKA and provide practical recommendations for the management of DKA in adults and children