Ensemble Modeling with Data Assimilation Models: A New Strategy for Space Weather Specifications, Forecasts, and Science

The Earth’s Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Electrodynamics (I-T-E) system varies markedly on a range of spatial and temporal scales and these variations have adverse effects on human operations and systems, including high-frequency communications, over-the-horizon radars, and survey and navigation systems that use Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites. Consequently, there is a need to elucidate the underlying physical pro- cesses that lead to space weather disturbances and to both mitigate and forecast near-Earth space weather

CEDARâ GEM Challenge for Systematic Assessment of Ionosphere/Thermosphere Models in Predicting TEC During the 2006 December Storm Event

In order to assess current modeling capability of reproducing storm impacts on total electron content (TEC), we considered quantities such as TEC, TEC changes compared to quiet time values, and the maximum value of the TEC and TEC changes during a storm. We compared the quantities obtained from ionospheric models against groundâ based GPS TEC measurements during the 2006 AGU storm event (14â 15 December 2006) in the selected eight longitude sectors. We used 15 simulations obtained from eight ionospheric models, including empirical, physicsâ based, coupled ionosphereâ thermosphere, and data assimilation models. To quantitatively evaluate performance of the models in TEC prediction during the storm, we calculated skill scores such as RMS error, Normalized RMS error (NRMSE), ratio of the modeled to observed maximum increase (Yield), and the difference between the modeled peak time and observed peak time. Furthermore, to investigate latitudinal dependence of the performance of the models, the skill scores were calculated for five latitude regions. Our study shows that RMSE of TEC and TEC changes of the model simulations range from about 3 TECU (total electron content unit, 1 TECU = 1016 el mâ 2) (in high latitudes) to about 13 TECU (in low latitudes), which is larger than latitudinal average GPS TEC error of about 2 TECU. Most model simulations predict TEC better than TEC changes in terms of NRMSE and the difference in peak time, while the opposite holds true in terms of Yield. Model performance strongly depends on the quantities considered, the type of metrics used, and the latitude considered.Key PointsTEC and TEC changes during a storm predicted by ionosphere models were compared with groundâ based GPS TEC measurementsSkill scores (e.g., RMSE, NRMSE, and Yields) were calculated for five latitude regions in the selected eight longitude sectorsModel performance strongly depends on the quantities considered, the type of metrics used, and the latitude consideredPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/139943/1/swe20516.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/139943/2/swe20516_am.pd

The Role of Zinc in the Modulation of Neuronal Proliferation and Apoptosis

Although a requirement of zinc (Zn) for normal brain development is well documented, the extent to which Zn can modulate neuronal proliferation and apoptosis is not clear. Thus, we investigated the role of Zn in the regulation of these two critical events. A low Zn availability leads to decreased cell viability in human neuroblastoma IMR-32 cells and primary cultures of rat cortical neurons. This occurs in part as a consequence of decreased cell proliferation and increased apoptotic cell death. In IMR-32 cells, Zn deficiency led to the inhibition of cell proliferation through the arrest of the cell cycle at the G0/G1 phase. Zn deficiency induced apoptosis in both proliferating and quiescent neuronal cells via the intrinsic apoptotic pathway. Reductions in cellular Zn triggered a translocation of the pro-apoptotic protein Bad to the mitochondria, cytochrome c release, and caspase-3 activation. Apoptosis is the resultant of the inhibition of the prosurvival extracellular-signal-regulated kinase, the inhibition of nuclear factor-kappa B, and associated decreased expression of antiapoptotic proteins, and to a direct activation of caspase-3. A deficit of Zn during critical developmental periods can have persistent effects on brain function secondary to a deregulation of neuronal proliferation and apoptosis

Performance of CMS muon reconstruction in pp collision events at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

The performance of muon reconstruction, identification, and triggering in CMS has been studied using 40 inverse picobarns of data collected in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV at the LHC in 2010. A few benchmark sets of selection criteria covering a wide range of physics analysis needs have been examined. For all considered selections, the efficiency to reconstruct and identify a muon with a transverse momentum pT larger than a few GeV is above 95% over the whole region of pseudorapidity covered by the CMS muon system, abs(eta) < 2.4, while the probability to misidentify a hadron as a muon is well below 1%. The efficiency to trigger on single muons with pT above a few GeV is higher than 90% over the full eta range, and typically substantially better. The overall momentum scale is measured to a precision of 0.2% with muons from Z decays. The transverse momentum resolution varies from 1% to 6% depending on pseudorapidity for muons with pT below 100 GeV and, using cosmic rays, it is shown to be better than 10% in the central region up to pT = 1 TeV. Observed distributions of all quantities are well reproduced by the Monte Carlo simulation.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

Spectrum of PEX1 and PEX6 variants in Heimler syndrome

Heimler syndrome (HS) consists of recessively inherited sensorineural hearing loss, amelogenesis imperfecta (AI) and nail abnormalities, with or without visual defects. Recently HS was shown to result from hypomorphic mutations in PEX1 or PEX6, both previously implicated in Zellweger Syndrome Spectrum Disorders (ZSSD). ZSSD are a group of conditions consisting of craniofacial and neurological abnormalities, sensory defects and multi-organ dysfunction. The finding of HS-causing mutations in PEX1 and PEX6 shows that HS represents the mild end of the ZSSD spectrum, though these conditions were previously thought to be distinct nosological entities. Here, we present six further HS families, five with PEX6 variants and one with PEX1 variants, and show the patterns of Pex1, Pex14 and Pex6 immunoreactivity in the mouse retina. While Ratbi et al. found more HS-causing mutations in PEX1 than in PEX6, as is the case for ZSSD, in this cohort PEX6 variants predominate, suggesting both genes play a significant role in HS. The PEX6 variant c.1802G>A, p.(R601Q), reported previously in compound heterozygous state in one HS and three ZSSD cases, was found in compound heterozygous state in three HS families. Haplotype analysis suggests a common founder variant. All families segregated at least one missense variant, consistent with the hypothesis that HS results from genotypes including milder hypomorphic alleles. The clinical overlap of HS with the more common Usher syndrome and lack of peroxisomal abnormalities on plasma screening suggest that HS may be under-diagnosed. Recognition of AI is key to the accurate diagnosis of HS

Performance of CMS muon reconstruction in pp collision events at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

The performance of muon reconstruction, identification, and triggering in CMS has been studied using 40 inverse picobarns of data collected in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV at the LHC in 2010. A few benchmark sets of selection criteria covering a wide range of physics analysis needs have been examined. For all considered selections, the efficiency to reconstruct and identify a muon with a transverse momentum pT larger than a few GeV is above 95% over the whole region of pseudorapidity covered by the CMS muon system, abs(eta) < 2.4, while the probability to misidentify a hadron as a muon is well below 1%. The efficiency to trigger on single muons with pT above a few GeV is higher than 90% over the full eta range, and typically substantially better. The overall momentum scale is measured to a precision of 0.2% with muons from Z decays. The transverse momentum resolution varies from 1% to 6% depending on pseudorapidity for muons with pT below 100 GeV and, using cosmic rays, it is shown to be better than 10% in the central region up to pT = 1 TeV. Observed distributions of all quantities are well reproduced by the Monte Carlo simulation.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

Search for the standard model Higgs boson in the H to ZZ to 2l 2nu channel in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

A search for the standard model Higgs boson in the H to ZZ to 2l 2nu decay channel, where l = e or mu, in pp collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 7 TeV is presented. The data were collected at the LHC, with the CMS detector, and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 4.6 inverse femtobarns. No significant excess is observed above the background expectation, and upper limits are set on the Higgs boson production cross section. The presence of the standard model Higgs boson with a mass in the 270-440 GeV range is excluded at 95% confidence level.Comment: Submitted to JHE

Measurement of the Z/gamma* + b-jet cross section in pp collisions at 7 TeV

The production of b jets in association with a Z/gamma* boson is studied using proton-proton collisions delivered by the LHC at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV and recorded by the CMS detector. The inclusive cross section for Z/gamma* + b-jet production is measured in a sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.2 inverse femtobarns. The Z/gamma* + b-jet cross section with Z/gamma* to ll (where ll = ee or mu mu) for events with the invariant mass 60 < M(ll) < 120 GeV, at least one b jet at the hadron level with pT > 25 GeV and abs(eta) < 2.1, and a separation between the leptons and the jets of Delta R > 0.5 is found to be 5.84 +/- 0.08 (stat.) +/- 0.72 (syst.) +(0.25)/-(0.55) (theory) pb. The kinematic properties of the events are also studied and found to be in agreement with the predictions made by the MadGraph event generator with the parton shower and the hadronisation performed by PYTHIA.Comment: Submitted to the Journal of High Energy Physic