Statistically derived contributions of diverse human influences to twentieth-century temperature changes

The warming of the climate system is unequivocal as evidenced by an increase in global temperatures by 0.8 °C over the past century. However, the attribution of the observed warming to human activities remains less clear, particularly because of the apparent slow-down in warming since the late 1990s. Here we analyse radiative forcing and temperature time series with state-of-the-art statistical methods to address this question without climate model simulations. We show that long-term trends in total radiative forcing and temperatures have largely been determined by atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and modulated by other radiative factors. We identify a pronounced increase in the growth rates of both temperatures and radiative forcing around 1960, which marks the onset of sustained global warming. Our analyses also reveal a contribution of human interventions to two periods when global warming slowed down. Our statistical analysis suggests that the reduction in the emissions of ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol, as well as a reduction in methane emissions, contributed to the lower rate of warming since the 1990s. Furthermore, we identify a contribution from the two world wars and the Great Depression to the documented cooling in the mid-twentieth century, through lower carbon dioxide emissions. We conclude that reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are effective in slowing the rate of warming in the short term.F.E. acknowledges financial support from the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (http://www.conacyt.gob.mx) under grant CONACYT-310026, as well as from PASPA DGAPA of the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. (CONACYT-310026 - Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia; PASPA DGAPA of the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico

A methodology for the risk assessment of climate variability and change under uncertainty

Existing methods for the assessment of the potential impacts of climate change in productive activities and sectors are usually limited to point estimates that do not consider the inherent variability and uncertainty of climatic and socioeconomic variables. This is a major drawback given that only a limited and potentially misleading estimation of risk can be expected when ignoring such determinant factors. In this paper, a new methodology is introduced that is capable of integrating the agent's beliefs and expert judgment into the assessment of the potential impacts of climate change in a quantitative manner by means of an objective procedure. The goal is to produce tailor-made information to assist decision-making under uncertainty in a way that is consistent with the current state of knowledge and the available subjective "expert" information. Time-charts of the evolution of different risk measures, that can be relevant for assisting decision-making and planning, can be constructed using this new methodology. This methodology is illustrated with a case study of coffee production in Mexico. Time-dependent probabilistic scenarios for coffee production and income, conditional on the agent's beliefs and expert judgment, are developed for the average producer under uncertain future conditions. It is shown that variability in production and income, generated by introducing climate variability and uncertainty are important factors affecting decision-making and the assessment of economic viability that are frequently ignored. The concept of Value at Risk, commonly applied in financial risk management, is introduced as a means for estimating the maximum expected loss for a previously chosen confidence level. Results are tailor-made for agents that have incomplete information and different beliefs. In this case study, the costs of climate change for coffee production in Veracruz are estimated to have a present value representing from 3 to 14 times the current annual value of coffee production in the state. © 2011 The Author(s)

The yeast P5 type ATPase, Spf1, regulates manganese transport into the endoplasmic reticulum

The endoplasmic reticulum (ER) is a large, multifunctional and essential organelle. Despite intense research, the function of more than a third of ER proteins remains unknown even in the well-studied model organism Saccharomyces cerevisiae. One such protein is Spf1, which is a highly conserved, ER localized, putative P-type ATPase. Deletion of SPF1 causes a wide variety of phenotypes including severe ER stress suggesting that this protein is essential for the normal function of the ER. The closest homologue of Spf1 is the vacuolar P-type ATPase Ypk9 that influences Mn2+ homeostasis. However in vitro reconstitution assays with Spf1 have not yielded insight into its transport specificity. Here we took an in vivo approach to detect the direct and indirect effects of deleting SPF1. We found a specific reduction in the luminal concentration of Mn2+ in ∆spf1 cells and an increase following it’s overexpression. In agreement with the observed loss of luminal Mn2+ we could observe concurrent reduction in many Mn2+-related process in the ER lumen. Conversely, cytosolic Mn2+-dependent processes were increased. Together, these data support a role for Spf1p in Mn2+ transport in the cell. We also demonstrate that the human sequence homologue, ATP13A1, is a functionally conserved orthologue. Since ATP13A1 is highly expressed in developing neuronal tissues and in the brain, this should help in the study of Mn2+-dependent neurological disorders

Modelling Students’ Thematically Associated Knowledge : Networked Knowledge from Affinity Statistics

Peer reviewe

Cluster Lenses

Clusters of galaxies are the most recently assembled, massive, bound structures in the Universe. As predicted by General Relativity, given their masses, clusters strongly deform space-time in their vicinity. Clusters act as some of the most powerful gravitational lenses in the Universe. Light rays traversing through clusters from distant sources are hence deflected, and the resulting images of these distant objects therefore appear distorted and magnified. Lensing by clusters occurs in two regimes, each with unique observational signatures. The strong lensing regime is characterized by effects readily seen by eye, namely, the production of giant arcs, multiple-images, and arclets. The weak lensing regime is characterized by small deformations in the shapes of background galaxies only detectable statistically. Cluster lenses have been exploited successfully to address several important current questions in cosmology: (i) the study of the lens(es) - understanding cluster mass distributions and issues pertaining to cluster formation and evolution, as well as constraining the nature of dark matter; (ii) the study of the lensed objects - probing the properties of the background lensed galaxy population - which is statistically at higher redshifts and of lower intrinsic luminosity thus enabling the probing of galaxy formation at the earliest times right up to the Dark Ages; and (iii) the study of the geometry of the Universe - as the strength of lensing depends on the ratios of angular diameter distances between the lens, source and observer, lens deflections are sensitive to the value of cosmological parameters and offer a powerful geometric tool to probe Dark Energy. In this review, we present the basics of cluster lensing and provide a current status report of the field.Comment: About 120 pages - Published in Open Access at: http://www.springerlink.com/content/j183018170485723/ . arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:astro-ph/0504478 and arXiv:1003.3674 by other author

Search for New Physics in e mu X Data at D0 Using Sleuth: A Quasi-Model-Independent Search Strategy for New Physics

We present a quasi-model-independent search for the physics responsible for electroweak symmetry breaking. We define final states to be studied, and construct a rule that identifies a set of relevant variables for any particular final state. A new algorithm ("Sleuth") searches for regions of excess in those variables and quantifies the significance of any detected excess. After demonstrating the sensitivity of the method, we apply it to the semi-inclusive channel e mu X collected in 108 pb^-1 of ppbar collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.8 TeV at the D0 experiment during 1992-1996 at the Fermilab Tevatron. We find no evidence of new high p_T physics in this sample.Comment: 23 pages, 12 figures. Submitted to Physical Review

Ratio of the Isolated Photon Cross Sections at \sqrt{s} = 630 and 1800 GeV

The inclusive cross section for production of isolated photons has been measured in \pbarp collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 630$ GeV with the \D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. The photons span a transverse energy ($E_T$) range from 7-49 GeV and have pseudorapidity $|\eta| < 2.5$. This measurement is combined with to previous \D0 result at $\sqrt{s} = 1800$ GeV to form a ratio of the cross sections. Comparison of next-to-leading order QCD with the measured cross section at 630 GeV and ratio of cross sections show satisfactory agreement in most of the $E_T$ range.Comment: 7 pages. Published in Phys. Rev. Lett. 87, 251805, (2001

The secretome of alginate-encapsulated limbal epithelial stem cells modulates corneal epithelial cell proliferation

Limbal epithelial stem cells may ameliorate limbal stem cell deficiency through secretion of therapeutic proteins, delivered to the cornea in a controlled manner using hydrogels. In the present study the secretome of alginate-encapsulated limbal epithelial stem cells is investigated. Conditioned medium was generated from limbal epithelial stem cells encapsulated in 1.2% (w/v) calcium alginate gels. Conditioned medium proteins separated by 1-D gel electrophoresis were visualized by silver staining. Proteins of interest including secreted protein acidic and rich in cysteine, profilin-1, and galectin-1 were identified by immunoblotting. The effect of conditioned medium (from alginate-encapsulated limbal epithelial stem cells) on corneal epithelial cell proliferation was quantified and shown to significantly inhibit (P</=0.05) their growth. As secreted protein acidic and rich in cysteine was previously reported to attenuate proliferation of epithelial cells, this protein may be responsible, at least in part, for inhibition of corneal epithelial cell proliferation. We conclude that limbal epithelial stem cells encapsulated in alginate gels may regulate corneal epithelialisation through secretion of inhibitory proteins

Parent-of-origin-specific allelic associations among 106 genomic loci for age at menarche.

Age at menarche is a marker of timing of puberty in females. It varies widely between individuals, is a heritable trait and is associated with risks for obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, breast cancer and all-cause mortality. Studies of rare human disorders of puberty and animal models point to a complex hypothalamic-pituitary-hormonal regulation, but the mechanisms that determine pubertal timing and underlie its links to disease risk remain unclear. Here, using genome-wide and custom-genotyping arrays in up to 182,416 women of European descent from 57 studies, we found robust evidence (P < 5 × 10(-8)) for 123 signals at 106 genomic loci associated with age at menarche. Many loci were associated with other pubertal traits in both sexes, and there was substantial overlap with genes implicated in body mass index and various diseases, including rare disorders of puberty. Menarche signals were enriched in imprinted regions, with three loci (DLK1-WDR25, MKRN3-MAGEL2 and KCNK9) demonstrating parent-of-origin-specific associations concordant with known parental expression patterns. Pathway analyses implicated nuclear hormone receptors, particularly retinoic acid and γ-aminobutyric acid-B2 receptor signalling, among novel mechanisms that regulate pubertal timing in humans. Our findings suggest a genetic architecture involving at least hundreds of common variants in the coordinated timing of the pubertal transition