Biased-corrected richness estimates for the Amazonian tree flora

Amazonian forests are extraordinarily diverse, but the estimated species richness is very much debated. Here, we apply an ensemble of parametric estimators and a novel technique that includes conspecific spatial aggregation to an extended database of forest plots with up-to-date taxonomy. We show that the species abundance distribution of Amazonia is best approximated by a logseries with aggregated individuals, where aggregation increases with rarity. By averaging several methods to estimate total richness, we confirm that over 15,000 tree species are expected to occur in Amazonia. We also show that using ten times the number of plots would result in an increase to just ~50% of those 15,000 estimated species. To get a more complete sample of all tree species, rigorous field campaigns may be needed but the number of trees in Amazonia will remain an estimate for years to come

Geographic patterns of tree dispersal modes in Amazonia and their ecological correlates

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this recordData availability statement: The percentages of dispersal modes per plot are included as Supporting Information (Table S7, based on 5433 species and morphospecies within 1877 tree-inventory plots across terra-firme, seasonally flooded, and permanently flooded forests in Amazonia). The dispersal modes assigned to these 5433 species and morphospecies are also included as Supporting Information (Table S8).Aim: To investigate the geographic patterns and ecological correlates in the geographic distribution of the most common tree dispersal modes in Amazonia (endozoochory, synzoochory, anemochory and hydrochory). We examined if the proportional abundance of these dispersal modes could be explained by the availability of dispersal agents (disperser-availability hypothesis) and/or the availability of resources for constructing zoochorous fruits (resource-availability hypothesis). Time period: Tree-inventory plots established between 1934 and 2019. Major taxa studied: Trees with a diameter at breast height (DBH) ≥ 9.55 cm. Location: Amazonia, here defined as the lowland rain forests of the Amazon River basin and the Guiana Shield. Methods: We assigned dispersal modes to a total of 5433 species and morphospecies within 1877 tree-inventory plots across terra-firme, seasonally flooded, and permanently flooded forests. We investigated geographic patterns in the proportional abundance of dispersal modes. We performed an abundance-weighted mean pairwise distance (MPD) test and fit generalized linear models (GLMs) to explain the geographic distribution of dispersal modes. Results: Anemochory was significantly, positively associated with mean annual wind speed, and hydrochory was significantly higher in flooded forests. Dispersal modes did not consistently show significant associations with the availability of resources for constructing zoochorous fruits. A lower dissimilarity in dispersal modes, resulting from a higher dominance of endozoochory, occurred in terra-firme forests (excluding podzols) compared to flooded forests. Main conclusions: The disperser-availability hypothesis was well supported for abiotic dispersal modes (anemochory and hydrochory). The availability of resources for constructing zoochorous fruits seems an unlikely explanation for the distribution of dispersal modes in Amazonia. The association between frugivores and the proportional abundance of zoochory requires further research, as tree recruitment not only depends on dispersal vectors but also on conditions that favour or limit seedling recruitment across forest types.Colombian institution Departamento Administrativo de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación COLCIENCIASFaculty of Sciences, Universidad de los Ande

Consistent patterns of common species across tropical tree communities

Trees structure the Earth’s most biodiverse ecosystem, tropical forests. The vast number of tree species presents a formidable challenge to understanding these forests, including their response to environmental change, as very little is known about most tropical tree species. A focus on the common species may circumvent this challenge. Here we investigate abundance patterns of common tree species using inventory data on 1,003,805 trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm across 1,568 locations1,2,3,4,5,6 in closed-canopy, structurally intact old-growth tropical forests in Africa, Amazonia and Southeast Asia. We estimate that 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.3% of species comprise 50% of the tropical trees in these regions, respectively. Extrapolating across all closed-canopy tropical forests, we estimate that just 1,053 species comprise half of Earth’s 800 billion tropical trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm. Despite differing biogeographic, climatic and anthropogenic histories7, we find notably consistent patterns of common species and species abundance distributions across the continents. This suggests that fundamental mechanisms of tree community assembly may apply to all tropical forests. Resampling analyses show that the most common species are likely to belong to a manageable list of known species, enabling targeted efforts to understand their ecology. Although they do not detract from the importance of rare species, our results open new opportunities to understand the world’s most diverse forests, including modelling their response to environmental change, by focusing on the common species that constitute the majority of their trees

Consistent patterns of common species across tropical tree communities

Trees structure the Earth's most biodiverse ecosystem, tropical forests. The vast number of tree species presents a formidable challenge to understanding these forests, including their response to environmental change, as very little is known about most tropical tree species. A focus on the common species may circumvent this challenge. Here we investigate abundance patterns of common tree species using inventory data on 1,003,805 trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm across 1,568 locations1-6 in closed-canopy, structurally intact old-growth tropical forests in Africa, Amazonia and Southeast Asia. We estimate that 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.3% of species comprise 50% of the tropical trees in these regions, respectively. Extrapolating across all closed-canopy tropical forests, we estimate that just 1,053 species comprise half of Earth's 800 billion tropical trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm. Despite differing biogeographic, climatic and anthropogenic histories7, we find notably consistent patterns of common species and species abundance distributions across the continents. This suggests that fundamental mechanisms of tree community assembly may apply to all tropical forests. Resampling analyses show that the most common species are likely to belong to a manageable list of known species, enabling targeted efforts to understand their ecology. Although they do not detract from the importance of rare species, our results open new opportunities to understand the world's most diverse forests, including modelling their response to environmental change, by focusing on the common species that constitute the majority of their trees

Diarrhea and dengue control in rural primary schools in Colombia: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Diarrheal diseases and dengue fever are major global health problems. Where provision of clean water is inadequate, water storage is crucial. Fecal contamination of stored water is a common source of diarrheal illness, but stored water also provides breeding sites for dengue vector mosquitoes. Poor household water management and sanitation are therefore potential determinants of both diseases. Little is known of the role of stored water for the combined risk of diarrhea and dengue, yet a joint role would be important for developing integrated control and management efforts. Even less is known of the effect of integrating control of these diseases in school settings. The objective of this trial was to investigate whether interventions against diarrhea and dengue will significantly reduce diarrheal disease and dengue entomological risk factors in rural primary schools. METHODS/DESIGN: This is a 2×2 factorial cluster randomized controlled trial. Eligible schools were rural primary schools in La Mesa and Anapoima municipalities, Cundinamarca, Colombia. Eligible pupils were school children in grades 0 to 5. Schools were randomized to one of four study arms: diarrhea interventions (DIA); dengue interventions (DEN); combined diarrhea and dengue interventions (DIADEN); and control (C). Schools were allocated publicly in each municipality (strata) at the start of the trial, obviating the need for allocation concealment. The primary outcome for diarrhea is incidence rate of diarrhea in school children and for dengue it is density of adult female Aedes aegypti per school. Approximately 800 pupils from 34 schools were enrolled in the trial with eight schools in the DIA arm, nine in the DEN, eight in the DIADEN, and nine in the control arms. The trial status as of June 2012 was: completed baseline data collections; enrollment, randomization, and allocation of schools. The trial was funded by the Research Council of Norway and the Lazos de Calandaima Foundation. DISCUSSION: This is the first trial investigating the effect of a set of integrated interventions to control both dengue and diarrhea. This is also the first trial to study the combination of diarrhea-dengue disease control in school settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN40195031

Metabolic reprogramming and epigenetic changes of vital organs in SARS-CoV-2 induced systemic toxicity

Extra-pulmonary manifestations of COVID-19 are associated with a much higher mortality rate. Yet, little is known about the pathogenesis of systemic complications of COVID-19. Here, we create a murine model of SARS-CoV-2 induced severe systemic toxicity and multi-organ involvement by expressing the human ACE2 transgene in multiple tissues via viral delivery followed by systemic administration of SARS-CoV-2. The animals develop a profound phenotype within 7 days with severe weight loss, morbidity and failure to thrive. We demonstrate there is metabolic suppression of oxidative phosphorylation and the tri-carboxylic acid (TCA) cycle in multiple organs with neutrophilia, lymphopenia and splenic atrophy mirroring human COVID-19 phenotypes. Animals had a significantly lower heart rate and electron microscopy demonstrated myofibrillar disarray and myocardial edema, a common pathogenic cardiac phenotype in human COVID-19. We perform metabolomic profiling of peripheral blood and identify a panel of TCA cycle metabolites that serve as biomarkers of depressed oxidative phosphorylation. Finally, we observed that SARS-CoV-2 induces epigenetic changes of DNA methylation, that affects expression of immune response genes and could in part contribute to COVID-19 pathogenesis. Our model suggests that SARS-CoV-2 induced metabolic reprogramming and epigenetic changes in internal organs could contribute to systemic toxicity and lethality in COVID-19

A new classification of earthquake-induced landslide event sizes based on seismotectonic, topographic, climatic and geologic factors

Background This paper reviews the classical and some particular factors contributing to earthquake-triggered landslide activity. This analysis should help predict more accurately landslide event sizes, both in terms of potential numbers and affected area. It also highlights that some occurrences, especially those very far from the hypocentre/activated fault, cannot be predicted by state-of-the-art methods. Particular attention will be paid to the effects of deep focal earthquakes in Central Asia and to other extremely distant landslide activations in other regions of the world (e.g. Saguenay earthquake 1988, Canada). Results The classification of seismically induced landslides and the related ‘event sizes’ is based on five main factors: ‘Intensity’, ‘Fault factor’, ‘Topographic energy’, ‘Climatic background conditions’, ‘Lithological factor’. Most of these data were extracted from papers, but topographic inputs were checked by analyzing the affected region in Google Earth. The combination and relative weight of the factors was tested through comparison with well documented events and complemented by our studies of earthquake-triggered landslides in Central Asia. The highest relative weight (6) was attributed to the ‘Fault factor’; the other factors all received a smaller relative weight (2–4). The high weight of the ‘Fault factor’ (based on the location in/outside the mountain range, the fault type and length) is strongly constrained by the importance of the Wenchuan earthquake that, for example, triggered far more landslides in 2008 than the Nepal earthquake in 2015: the main difference is that the fault activated by the Wenchuan earthquake created an extensive surface rupture within the Longmenshan Range marked by a very high topographic energy while the one activated by the Nepal earthquake ruptured the surface in the frontal part of the Himalayas where the slopes are less steep and high. Finally, the calibrated factor combination was applied to almost 100 other earthquake events for which some landslide information was available. This comparison revealed the ability of the classification to provide a reasonable estimate of the number of triggered landslides and of the size of the affected area. According to this prediction, the most severe earthquake-triggered landslide event of the last one hundred years would actually be the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 followed by the 1950 Assam earthquake in India – considering that the dominating role of the Wenchuan earthquake data (including the availability of a complete landslide inventory) for the weighting of the factors strongly influences and may even bias this result. The strongest landslide impacts on human life in recent history were caused by the Haiyuan-Gansu earthquake in 1920 – ranked as third most severe event according to our classification: its size is due to a combination of high shaking intensity, an important ‘Fault factor’ and the extreme susceptibility of the regional loess cover to slope failure, while the surface morphology of the affected area is much smoother than the one affected by the Wenchuan 2008 or the Nepal 2015 earthquakes. Conclusions The main goal of the classification of earthquake-triggered landslide events is to help improve total seismic hazard assessment over short and longer terms. Considering the general performance of the classification-prediction, it can be seen that the prediction either fits or overestimates the known/observed number of triggered landslides for a series of earthquakes, while it often underestimates the size of the affected area. For several events (especially the older ones), the overestimation of the number of landslides can be partly explained by the incompleteness of the published catalogues. The underestimation of the extension of the area, however, is real – as some particularities cannot be taken into account by such a general approach: notably, we used the same seismic intensity attenuation for all events, while attenuation laws are dependent on regional tectonic and geological conditions. In this regard, it is likely that the far-distant triggering of landslides, e.g., by the 1988 Saguenay earthquake (and the related extreme extension of affected area) is due to a very low attenuation of seismic energy within the North American plate. Far-distant triggering of landslides in Central Asia can be explained by the susceptibility of slopes covered by thick soft soils to failure under the effect of low-frequency shaking induced by distant earthquakes, especially by the deep focal earthquakes in the Pamir – Hindukush seismic region. Such deep focal and high magnitude (> > 7) earthquakes are also found in Europe, first of all in the Vrancea region (Romania). For this area as well as for the South Tien Shan we computed possible landslide event sizes related to some future earthquake scenarios