Anisotropy probe of galactic and extra-galactic Dark Matter annihilations

We study the flux and the angular power spectrum of gamma-rays produced by Dark Matter (DM) annihilations in the Milky Way (MW) and in extra-galactic halos. The annihilation signal receives contributions from: a) the smooth MW halo, b) resolved and unresolved substructures in the MW, c) external DM halos at all redshifts, including d) their substructures. Adopting a self-consistent description of local and extra-galactic substructures, we show that the annihilation flux from substructures in the MW dominates over all the other components for angles larger than O(1) degrees from the Galactic Center, unless an extreme prescription is adopted for the substructures concentration. We also compute the angular power spectrum of gamma-ray anisotropies and find that, for an optimistic choice of the particle physics parameters, an interesting signature of DM annihilations could soon be discovered by the Fermi LAT satellite at low multipoles, l<100, where the dominant contribution comes from MW substructures with mass M>10^4 solar masses. For the substructures models we have adopted, we find that the contribution of extra-galactic annihilations is instead negligible at all scales.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figure

How to calculate dark matter direct detection exclusion limits that are consistent with gamma rays from annihilation in the Milky Way halo

When comparing constraints on the weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) properties from direct and indirect detection experiments it is crucial that the assumptions made about the dark matter (DM) distribution are realistic and consistent. For instance, if the Fermi-LAT Galactic center GeV gamma-ray excess was due to WIMP annihilation, its morphology would be incompatible with the standard halo model that is usually used to interpret data from direct detection experiments. In this article, we calculate exclusion limits from direct detection experiments using self-consistent velocity distributions, derived from mass models of the Milky Way where the DM halo has a generalized Navarro-Frenk-White profile. We use two different methods to make the mass model compatible with a DM interpretation of the Galactic center gamma-ray excess. First, we fix the inner slope of the DM density profile to the value that best fits the morphology of the excess. Second, we allow the inner slope to vary and include the morphology of the excess in the data sets used to constrain the gravitational potential of the Milky Way. The resulting direct detection limits differ significantly from those derived using the standard halo model, in particular for light WIMPs, due to the differences in both the local DM density and velocity distribution

A self-consistent phase-space distribution function for the anisotropic dark matter halo of the Milky Way

Dark Matter (DM) direct detection experiments usually assume the simplest possible ‘Standard Halo Model’ for the Milky Way (MW) halo in which the velocity distribution is Maxwellian. This model assumes that the MW halo is an isotropic, isothermal sphere, hypotheses that are unlikely to be valid in reality. An alternative approach is to derive a self-consistent solution for a particular mass model of the MW (i.e. obtained from its gravitational potential) using the Eddington formalism, which assumes isotropy. In this paper we extend this approach to incorporate an anisotropic phase-space distribution function. We perform Bayesian scans over the parameters defining the mass model of the MW and parameterising the phase-space density, implementing constraints from a wide range of astronomical observations. The scans allow us to estimate the precision reached in the reconstruction of the velocity distribution (for different DM halo profiles). As expected, allowing for an anisotropic velocity tensor increases the uncertainty in the reconstruction of f (v), but the distribution can still be determined with a precision of a factor of 4-5. The mean velocity distribution resembles the isotropic case, however the amplitude of the high-velocity tail is up to a factor of 2 larger. Our results agree with the phenomenological parametrization proposed in Mao et al. (2013) as a good fit to N-body simulations (with or without baryons), since their velocity distribution is contained in our 68% credible interval

Dark Matter Annihilation around Intermediate Mass Black Holes: an update

The formation and evolution of Black Holes inevitably affects the distribution of dark and baryonic matter in the neighborhood of the Black Hole. These effects may be particularly relevant around Supermassive and Intermediate Mass Black Holes (IMBHs), the formation of which can lead to large Dark Matter overdensities, called {\em spikes} and {\em mini-spikes} respectively. Despite being larger and more dense, spikes evolve at the very centers of galactic halos, in regions where numerous dynamical effects tend to destroy them. Mini-spikes may be more likely to survive, and they have been proposed as worthwhile targets for indirect Dark Matter searches. We review here the formation scenarios and the prospects for detection of mini-spikes, and we present new estimates for the abundances of mini-spikes to illustrate the sensitivity of such predictions to cosmological parameters and uncertainties regarding the astrophysics of Black Hole formation at high redshift. We also connect the IMBHs scenario to the recent measurements of cosmic-ray electron and positron spectra by the PAMELA, ATIC, H.E.S.S., and Fermi collaborations.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures. Invited contribution to NJP Focus Issue on "Dark Matter and Particle Physics

Predicting readmission or death after discharge from the ICU: external validation and retraining of a machine learning model

OBJECTIVES: Many machine learning (ML) models have been developed for application in the ICU, but few models have been subjected to external validation. The performance of these models in new settings therefore remains unknown. The objective of this study was to assess the performance of an existing decision support tool based on a ML model predicting readmission or death within 7 days after ICU discharge before, during, and after retraining and recalibration.DESIGN: A gradient boosted ML model was developed and validated on electronic health record data from 2004 to 2021. We performed an independent validation of this model on electronic health record data from 2011 to 2019 from a different tertiary care center.SETTING: Two ICUs in tertiary care centers in The Netherlands.PATIENTS: Adult patients who were admitted to the ICU and stayed for longer than 12 hours.INTERVENTIONS: None.MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We assessed discrimination by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration (slope and intercept). We retrained and recalibrated the original model and assessed performance via a temporal validation design. The final retrained model was cross-validated on all data from the new site. Readmission or death within 7 days after ICU discharge occurred in 577 of 10,052 ICU admissions (5.7%) at the new site. External validation revealed moderate discrimination with an AUC of 0.72 (95% CI 0.67–0.76). Retrained models showed improved discrimination with AUC 0.79 (95% CI 0.75–0.82) for the final validation model. Calibration was poor initially and good after recalibration via isotonic regression.CONCLUSIONS: In this era of expanding availability of ML models, external validation and retraining are key steps to consider before applying ML models to new settings. Clinicians and decision-makers should take this into account when considering applying new ML models to their local settings.Analysis and support of clinical decision makingDevelopment and application of statistical models for medical scientific researc

Dark Matter signals from Draco and Willman 1: Prospects for MAGIC II and CTA

The next generation of ground-based Imaging Air Cherenkov Telescopes (IACTs) will play an important role in indirect dark matter searches. In this article, we consider two particularly promising candidate sources for dark matter annihilation signals, the nearby dwarf galaxies Draco and Willman 1, and study the prospects of detecting such a signal for the soon-operating MAGIC II telescope system as well as for the planned installation of CTA, taking special care of describing the experimental features that affect the detectional prospects. For the first time in such a study, we fully take into account the effect of internal bremsstrahlung, which has recently been shown to considerably enhance, in some cases, the gamma-ray flux at the high energies where Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes operate, thus leading to significantly harder annihilation spectra than traditionally considered. While the detection of the spectral features introduced by internal bremsstrahlung would constitute a smoking gun signature for dark matter annihilation, we find that for most models the overall flux still remains at a level that will be challenging to detect unless one adopts rather (though by no means overly) optimistic astrophysical assumptions about the distribution of dark matter in the dwarfs.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, minor changes, matches the published version (JCAP

Dark Matter Candidates: A Ten-Point Test

An extraordinarily rich zoo of non-baryonic Dark Matter candidates has been proposed over the last three decades. Here we present a 10-point test that a new particle has to pass, in order to be considered a viable DM candidate: I.) Does it match the appropriate relic density? II.) Is it {\it cold}? III.) Is it neutral? IV.) Is it consistent with BBN? V.) Does it leave stellar evolution unchanged? VI.) Is it compatible with constraints on self-interactions? VII.) Is it consistent with {\it direct} DM searches? VIII.) Is it compatible with gamma-ray constraints? IX.) Is it compatible with other astrophysical bounds? X.) Can it be probed experimentally?Comment: 29 pages, 12 figure

Dark Matter and Fundamental Physics with the Cherenkov Telescope Array

The Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) is a project for a next-generation observatory for very high energy (GeV-TeV) ground-based gamma-ray astronomy, currently in its design phase, and foreseen to be operative a few years from now. Several tens of telescopes of 2-3 different sizes, distributed over a large area, will allow for a sensitivity about a factor 10 better than current instruments such as H.E.S.S, MAGIC and VERITAS, an energy coverage from a few tens of GeV to several tens of TeV, and a field of view of up to 10 deg. In the following study, we investigate the prospects for CTA to study several science questions that influence our current knowledge of fundamental physics. Based on conservative assumptions for the performance of the different CTA telescope configurations, we employ a Monte Carlo based approach to evaluate the prospects for detection. First, we discuss CTA prospects for cold dark matter searches, following different observational strategies: in dwarf satellite galaxies of the Milky Way, in the region close to the Galactic Centre, and in clusters of galaxies. The possible search for spatial signatures, facilitated by the larger field of view of CTA, is also discussed. Next we consider searches for axion-like particles which, besides being possible candidates for dark matter may also explain the unexpectedly low absorption by extragalactic background light of gamma rays from very distant blazars. Simulated light-curves of flaring sources are also used to determine the sensitivity to violations of Lorentz Invariance by detection of the possible delay between the arrival times of photons at different energies. Finally, we mention searches for other exotic physics with CTA.Comment: (31 pages, Accepted for publication in Astroparticle Physics