The Knowledge Lift: The Swedish Adult Education Program that Aimed to Eliminate Low Worker Skill Levels

The Swedish adult education program known as the Knowledge Lift is unprecedented in its size and scope, aiming to raise the skill level of all low-skilled workers towards the medium level. This paper evaluates the effects of program participation on individual labor market outcomes, notably employment and annual income, as well as on the labor market equilibrium. For the effects at the individual level, we apply fixed effect methods allowing for treatment effect heterogeneity. The data are based on a number of matched longitudinal administrative data sets covering the full population of Sweden. For the equilibrium effects, we analyze an equilibrium search model with heterogeneous worker skills. This model is calibrated using pre-program observations.returns to education, training, program evaluation, wages, participation, unemployment, schooling, Swedish labor market, selectivity bias, treatment effect.

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study

Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings: This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p\textless0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p\textless0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p\textless0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047). Interpretation: Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research

The anatomy of subjective well-being

'Subjective well-being has increasingly been studied by several economists. This paper fits in that literature but takes into account that there are different aspects of life such as health, financial situation, and job. We call them domains. In this paper, we consider subjective well-being as a composite of various domain satisfactions (DS). We postulate a two-layer model where individual subjective well-being is explained by individual subjective domain satisfactions with respect to job, finance, health, leisure, housing, and environment. We distinguish between long-term and short-term effects. Next, we explain domain satisfactions and subjective well-being by objectively measurable variables such as income. We estimate a model for the GS and DS equations with individual random effects and fix time effects.' (author's abstract)Das subjektive Wohlbefinden wurde bereits von mehreren Wirtschaftswissenschaftlern ausfuehrlich untersucht. Das vorliegende Papier schliesst sich dieser Tradition an, macht aber darauf aufmerksam, dass es neben Gesundheit, finanzieller Situation und Job noch andere Aspekte des Lebens gibt. Diese werden hier 'domains' genannt. Die Autoren betrachten das subjektive Wohlbefinden als eine Zusammensetzung von verschiedenen Domain-Zufriedenheiten (DS). Postuliert wird ein Zwei-Schichten-Modell, durch welches das individuelle subjektive Wohlbefinden durch individuelle subjektive Domain-Zufriedenheiten im Hinblick auf Job, Finanzen, Gesundheit, Freizeit, Wohnen und Umfeld erklaert wird. Die Autoren unterscheiden dabei zwischen langfristigen und kurzfristigen Effekten. Sie erklaeren ferner die Domain-Zufriedenheiten und das subjektive Wohlbefinden durch objektive messbare Variablen, wie das Einkommen. Sie schaetzen ein Modell fuer die GS- und DS-Gleichungen mit individuellen Random-Effekten und Fixzeit-Effekten. (ICIUebers)German title: Die Anatomie des subjektiven WohlbefindensAvailable from http://www.diw.de/deutsch/publikationen/diskussionspapiere/docs/papers/dp265.pdf / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman

LISS panel - Viral Justice

This research investigates the perception of society about sharing messages about sexual victimization online, more specifically e-shaming.Suggestions for data usage: The data files are accessible via Centerdata. For more information, please use the link under Relations or www.lissdata.nl

Globalisation and governance Contradictions of neo-liberal migration management

'Neo-liberal globalisation has primarily entailed the liberalisation of trade and capital flows, but largely ignored the issue of labour mobility. Most literature on the political economy of globalisation likewise ignores global labour mobility. This paper first asks how globalisation affects human mobility. The conclusion is that globalisation integrates the world population into the global labour market in three principal ways: through accelerated commodification of labour power, through the integration via transnational production of national and regional labour markets, and by various (sometimes new) forms of international labour mobility. Regulation of the global economy is increasingly informalised and privatised, argues the paper. This trend is also noticeable in the governance of migration flows. The emerging de facto international regime for the regulation of migration is at the same time restrictive (to curb undesirable forms of migration and strengthen state control) and liberal (to enhance the deregulation and liberalisation of the global economy). This emerging form of governance largely lacks democratic legitimacy. In the final section the paper argues that a new, democratic, multilateral regime for the regulation of migration flows must be set up which can reflect the interests not just of governments and transnational capital, but those of migrants and the populations at large as well.' (author's abstract)'Neoliberale Globalisierung hat bisher die Liberalisierung von Handel und Kapitalfluesse impliziert, aber die Frage der Arbeitsmobilitaet weitgehend ignoriert. Die meiste Verhandlungen ueber die politische Oekonomie der Globalisierung haben ebenso die internationale Mobilitaet von Arbeit negiert. Dieses Arbeitspapier faengt an mit der Frage nach den Effekten von Globalisierung auf Mobilitaet von Personen. Die Schlussfolgerung ist dass Globalisierung die Weltbevoelkerung in einen weltweiten Arbeitsmarkt integriert auf drei Weisen: durch beschleunigte commodification (?) der Arbeitskraft, durch Integration (ueber transnationale Produktion) von nationale und regionale Arbeitsmaerkte, und durch verschiedene (manchmal neue) Formen internationaler Arbeitsmobilitaet. Regulierung der Weltwirtschaft wird zunehmend informell und privatisiert, und diesen Trend laesst sich auch bemerken bei der Regulierung von Migrationsfluesse. Das entstehende Regime fuer internationale Migration ist zugleich restriktiv (um unerwuenschte Migrationsformen entgegen zu gehen und die Kontrolle des Staates zu staerken) und liberal (um die Deregulierung und Liberalisierung der Weltwirtschaft zu ergaenzen). Dieses Regime entbehrt demokratische Legitimitaet. In den letzten Abschnitt wird argumentiert dass ein neues, demokratisches, multilaterales Regime fuer die Regulation von internationalen Migrationen errichtet werden soll, das sowohl die Interessen von Regierungen und Grossunternehmen als auch die Interessen von Aus- und Einwanderer und betroffene Bevoelkerungen repraesentieren kann.' (Autorenreferat)German title: Globalisierung und Governance: Widersprueche des neoliberalen MigrationsmanagementsAvailable from http://www.hwwa.de/Publikationen/Discussion Paper/2002/174.pdf / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman

Regional specialization and concentration of industrial activity in accession countries

Seit 1990 haben die mittel- und osteuropaeischen Laender im Kontext der Europaeischen Union durch Handel und auslaendische Direktinvestitionen eine wachsende Integration erfahren. Die raeumlichen Auswirkungen dieses Prozesses sind bislang nicht sehr tiefgruendig untersucht worden. Gemaess dieser Bestandsaufnahme gehen die Autoren den Fragen nach, ob in dem Zeitraum von 1990 bis 1999 bei den Mustern der regionalen Spezialisierung ein Wandel zu beobachten und eine Umsiedelung der Produktionsaktivitaeten eingetreten ist. Des Weiteren sind die Determinanten der regionalen Spezialisierung und der industriellen Konzentrationsverlaeufe von Interesse. In diesem Zusammenhang werden die Effekte der oekonomischen Integration auf die Muster der regionalen Ausrichtung und die geographische Konzentration von Produktionsstaetten in Bulgarien, Estland, Ungarn, Rumaenien und Slowenien identifiziert und erlaeutert. Unter Anwendung einer entsprechend erhobenen Datengrundlage ist eine regionale Umsiedelung von Industrien zu beobachten, die zu einer hoeheren durchschnittlichen regionalen Spezialisierung in Bulgarien und Rumaenien sowie einer niedrigeren durchschnittlichen regionalen Spezialisierung in Estland fuehrt. In Ungarn und Slowenien hat sich der Spezialisierungsgrad nicht wesentlich veraendert. Die Ergebnisse machen deutlich, dass sowohl die Ausstattung mit Produktionsfaktoren als auch die geographische Naehe zu dem europaeischen Zentrum die Produktionsstandorte in den Beitrittslaendern determinieren. (ICGUebers)'Since 1990, Central and East European economies have experienced increasing integration with the European Union via trade and direct foreign investments. The spatial implications of this process have not been investigated in-depth so far. Have patterns of regional specialization changed over the period 1990-1999? Has a relocation of manufacturing activity taken place? What are the determinants of regional specialization and industrial concentration patterns? This paper identifies and explains the effects of economic integration on patterns of regional specialization and the geographic concentration of manufacturing in Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Romania and Slovenia. Using a specially created data base, we find evidence of regional relocation of industries, leading to higher average regional specialization in Bulgaria and Romania and lower average regional specialization in Estonia. In Hungary and Slovenia the average regional specialization has not changed significantly. Our results indicate that both factor endowments and geographic proximity to European core determine the location of manufacturing in accession countries.' (author's abstract)German title: Regionale Spezialisierung und Konzentration von industriellen Aktivitaeten in BeitrittslaendernSIGLEAvailable from Universitaet Bonn, Zentrum fuer Europaeische Integrationsforschung -ZEI-, Bonn (DE) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekDEGerman

Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment

We introduce a combined density nowcasting (CDN) approach to dynamic factor models (DFM) that in a coherent way accounts for time-varying uncertainty of several model and data features to provide more accurate and complete density nowcasts. The combination weights are latent random variables that depend on past nowcasting performance and other learning mechanisms. The combined density scheme is incorporated in a Bayesian sequential Monte Carlo method which rebalances the set of nowcasted densities in each period using updated information on the time-varying weights. Experiments with simulated data show that CDN works particularly well in a situation of early data releases with relatively large data uncertainty and model incompleteness. Empirical results, based on U.S. real-time data of 120 monthly variables, indicate that CDN gives more accurate density nowcasts of U.S. GDP growth than a model selection strategy and other combination strategies throughout the quarter with relatively large gains for the two first months of the quarter. CDN also provides informative signals on model incompleteness during recent recessions. Focusing on the tails, CDN delivers probabilities of negative growth, that provide good signals for calling recessions and ending economic slumps in real time

National climate change policy Are the new German energy policy initiatives in conflict with WTO law?

'This paper addresses German energy policy instruments and their compatibility with WTO rules. Germany and the EU are forerunners in international climate change policy and driving forces behind the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. German energy policy includes approaches to foster electricity generation from renewable resources. Our major question is whether both the policy tools currently applied (standards, taxes and subsidies) and those under consideration (labels, green certificates and border tax adjustment) are compatible with WTO rules. Our findings are that currently neither the design nor the application of the policy instruments are in conflict with WTO rules. However, the setting of production standards for electricity supply is the cru-cial issue in this debate and if trade in electricity increases, so will the potential for conflict. Rejecting imports because of the way electricity was produced could lead to disputes and to a need for settlements by the WTO legal system. Moreover, when introducing tools like green certificates or border tax adjustments, it is important to find the balance between effectively fostering the reduction of global emissions and eligibility under WTO law.' (author's abstract)Im Mittelpunkt des Arbeitspapiers stehen die energiepolitischen Instrumente in der Bundesrepublik und ihre Kompatibilitaet mit den WTO-Regeln. Die deutsche Energiepolitik umfasst u.a. Ansaetze zur Foerderung der Elektrizitaetserzeugung durch erneuerbare Ressourcen. Die zentrale Frage der Studie richtet sich darauf, ob sowohl die bereits bestehenden Politikwerkzeuge (Standards, Steuern und Subventionen) als auch die geplanten Instrumente (Labels, gruene Zertifikate und Grenzabgaben-Anpassung) mit WTO-Regeln vereinbar sind. Im Ergebnis wird zwar festgestellt, dass gegenwaertig weder die Ausrichtung noch die Anwendung von Politikinstrumenten in Konflikt mit den WTO-Regeln stehen. Dennoch stellt das Setzen von Produktionsstandards fuer die Elektrizitaetsversorgung nach Meinung der Autoren eine kritische Frage in dieser Debatte dar, und wenn der Handel mit Elektrizitaet zunimmt, wird auch das Konfliktpotenzial steigen. Im Falle der Einfuehrung von Werkzeugen wie gruenen Zertifikate oder Grenzabgaben-Anpassungen ist es nach ihrer Einschaetzung wichtig, die Balance zwischen einer effektiven Foerderung der Reduktion von globalen Emissionen und einer Uebereinstimmung mit WTO-Recht zu finden. (ICIUebers)German title: Nationale Klimapolitik: stehen die neuen energiepolitischen Initiativen Deutschlands in Konflikt mit dem WTO-Recht?SIGLEAvailable from Deutsches Institut fuer Wirtschaftsforschung -DIW Berlin-, Berlin (DE) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekDEGerman

EU KLEMS

Productivity in the European Union: A Comparative Industry Approach (EU KLEMS, 2003) This project aims to create a database on measures of economic growth, productivity, employment creation, capital formation and technological change at the industry level for all European Union member states from 1970 onwards. This work will provide an important input to policy evaluation, in particular for the assessment of the goals concerning competitiveness and economic growth potential as established by the Lisbon and Barcelona summit goals. The database should facilitate the sustainable production of high quality statistics using the methodologies of national accounts and input-output analysis. The input measures will include various categories of capital, labour, energy, material and service inputs. Productivity measures will be developed, in particular with growth accounting techniques. Several measures on knowledge creation will also be constructed. Substantial methodological and data research on these measures will be carried out to improve international comparability. There will be ample attention for the development of a flexible database structure, and for the progressive implementation of the database in official statistics over the course of the project. The database will be used for analytical and policy-related purposes, in particular by studying the relationship between skill formation, technological progress and innovation on the one hand, and productivity, on the other. To facilitate this type of analysis a link will also be sought with existing micro (firm level) databases. The balance in academic, statistical and policy input in this project is realised by the participation of 15 organisations from across the EU, representing a mix of academic institutions and national economic policy research institutes and with the support from various statistical offices and the OECD. This project is funded by the European Commission, Research Directorate General as part of the 6th Framework Programme, Priority 8, "Policy Support and Anticipating Scientific and Technological Needs". The 2017 update of the EU KLEMS database has been funded by the European Commission under the service contract ECFIN-163-2015/SI2.716986 for the 'Provision of updated EU KLEMS-type data for growth and productivity analysis'. Any errors or omissions are entirely the responsibility of The Conference Board. For comments and suggestions please send an email to [email protected]