Use of Fuzzycones for Sun-Only Attitude Determination: THEMIS Becomes ARTEMIS

In order for two THEMIS probes to successfully transition to ARTEMIS it will be necessary to determine attitudes with moderate accuracy using Sun sensor data only. To accomplish this requirement, an implementation of the Fuzzycones maximum likelihood algorithm was developed. The effect of different measurement uncertainty models on Fuzzycones attitude accuracy was investigated and a bin-transition technique was introduced to improve attitude accuracy using data with uniform error distributions. The algorithm was tested with THEMIS data and in simulations. The analysis results show that the attitude requirements can be met using Fuzzycones and data containing two bin-transitions

On-Orbit Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Star Tracker Warm Pixel Analysis

This paper describes the process of identification and analysis of warm pixels in two autonomous star trackers on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. A brief description of the mission orbit and attitude regimes is discussed and pertinent star tracker hardware specifications are given. Warm pixels are defined and the Quality Index parameter is introduced, which can be explained qualitatively as a manifestation of a possible warm pixel event. A description of the algorithm used to identify warm pixel candidates is given. Finally, analysis of dumps of on-orbit star tracker charge coupled devices (CCD) images is presented and an operational plan going forward is discussed. SDO, launched on February 11, 2010, is operated from the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). SDO is in a geosynchronous orbit with a 28.5 inclination. The nominal mission attitude points the spacecraft X-axis at the Sun, with the spacecraft Z-axis roughly aligned with the Solar North Pole. The spacecraft Y-axis completes the triad. In attitude, SDO moves approximately 0.04 per hour, mostly about the spacecraft Z-axis. The SDO star trackers, manufactured by Galileo Avionica, project the images of stars in their 16.4deg x 16.4deg fields-of-view onto CCD detectors consisting of 512 x 512 pixels. The trackers autonomously identify the star patterns and provide an attitude estimate. Each unit is able to track up to 9 stars. Additionally, each tracker calculates a parameter called the Quality Index, which is a measure of the quality of the attitude solution. Each pixel in the CCD measures the intensity of light and a warns pixel is defined as having a measurement consistently and significantly higher than the mean background intensity level. A warns pixel should also have lower intensity than a pixel containing a star image and will not move across the field of view as the attitude changes (as would a dim star image). It should be noted that the maximum error introduced in the star tracker attitude solution during suspected warm pixel corruptions is within the specified 36 attitude error budget requirement of [35, 70, 70] arcseconds. Thus, the star trackers provided attitude accuracy within the specification for SDO. The star tracker images are intentionally defocused so each star image is detected in more than one CCD pixel. The position of each star is calculated as an intensity-weighted average of the illuminated pixels. The exact method of finding the positions is proprietary to the tracker manufacturer. When a warm pixel happens to be in the vicinity of a star, it can corrupt the calculation of the position of that particular star, thereby corrupting the estimate of the attitude

Choice of observation type affects Bayesian calibration of ice sheet model projections

Determining reliable probability distributions for ice sheet mass change over the coming century is critical to improving uncertainties in sea-level rise projections. Bayesian calibration, a method for constraining projection uncertainty using observations, has been previously applied to ice sheet projections but the impact of the chosen observation type on the calibrated posterior probability distributions has not been quantified. Here, we perform three separate Bayesian calibrations to constrain uncertainty in Greenland Ice Sheet projections using observations of velocity change, dynamic thickness change, and mass change. Comparing the posterior probability distributions shows that the maximum a posteriori ice sheet mass change can differ by 130 % for the particular model ensemble that we used, depending on the observation type used in the calibration. More importantly for risk-averse sea level planning, posterior probabilities of high-end mass change scenarios are highly sensitive to the observation selected for calibration. Finally, we show that using mass change observations alone may result in projections that overestimate flow acceleration and underestimate dynamic thinning around the margin of the ice sheet.</p

Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting

This research has been supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Space Flight Center (postdoctoral program grant), the National Science Foundation, Office of Polar Programs (grant no. 1513396), the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (grant no. 024.002.001), the Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique – FNRS (grant no. 2.5020.11),the Fédération Wallonie-Bruxelles (grant no. 1117545), the National Science Foundation, Division of Polar Programs (grant no. 1916566), the National Science Foundation, Office of Polar Programs (grant no. 1756272) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (grant no. NNX17AI03G).The effect of the North Atlantic Ocean on the Greenland Ice Sheet through submarine melting of Greenland's tidewater glacier calving fronts is thought to be a key driver of widespread glacier retreat, dynamic mass loss and sea level contribution from the ice sheet. Despite its critical importance, problems of process complexity and scale hinder efforts to represent the influence of submarine melting in ice-sheet-scale models. Here we propose parameterizing tidewater glacier terminus position as a simple linear function of submarine melting, with submarine melting in turn estimated as a function of subglacial discharge and ocean temperature. The relationship is tested, calibrated and validated using datasets of terminus position, subglacial discharge and ocean temperature covering the full ice sheet and surrounding ocean from the period 1960–2018. We demonstrate a statistically significant link between multi-decadal tidewater glacier terminus position change and submarine melting and show that the proposed parameterization has predictive power when considering a population of glaciers. An illustrative 21st century projection is considered, suggesting that tidewater glaciers in Greenland will undergo little further retreat in a low-emission RCP2.6 scenario. In contrast, a high-emission RCP8.5 scenario results in a median retreat of 4.2 km, with a quarter of tidewater glaciers experiencing retreat exceeding 10 km. Our study provides a long-term and ice-sheet-wide assessment of the sensitivity of tidewater glaciers to submarine melting and proposes a practical and empirically validated means of incorporating ocean forcing into models of the Greenland ice sheet.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Twenty-first century ocean forcing of the Greenland ice sheet for modelling of sea level contribution

This research has been supported by the National Science Foundation, Office of Polar Programs (grant no. 1916566), the National Science Foundation, Division of Ocean Sciences (grant no. 1756272), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (grant no. NNX17AI03G), the National Science Foundation, Office of Polar Programs (grant nos. 1513396 and 1504230), the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (grant no. 024.002.001), the Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique – FNRS (grant no. 2.5020.11), and the FédérationWallonie-Bruxelles (grant no. 1117545).Changes in ocean temperature and salinity are expected to be an important determinant of the Greenland ice sheet's future sea level contribution. Yet, simulating the impact of these changes in continental-scale ice sheet models remains challenging due to the small scale of key physics, such as fjord circulation and plume dynamics, and poor understanding of critical processes, such as calving and submarine melting. Here we present the ocean forcing strategy for Greenland ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), the primary community effort to provide 21st century sea level projections for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. Beginning from global atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, we describe two complementary approaches to provide ocean boundary conditions for Greenland ice sheet models, termed the "retreat" and "submarine melt" implementations. The retreat implementation parameterises glacier retreat as a function of projected subglacial discharge and ocean thermal forcing, is designed to be implementable by all ice sheet models and results in retreat of around 1 and 15&thinsp;km by 2100 in RCP2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The submarine melt implementation provides estimated submarine melting only, leaving the ice sheet model to solve for the resulting calving and glacier retreat and suggests submarine melt rates will change little under RCP2.6 but will approximately triple by 2100 under RCP8.5. Both implementations have necessarily made use of simplifying assumptions and poorly constrained parameterisations and, as such, further research on submarine melting, calving and fjord-shelf exchange should remain a priority. Nevertheless, the presented framework will allow an ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models to be systematically and consistently forced by the ocean for the first time and should result in a significant improvement in projections of the Greenland ice sheet's contribution to future sea level change.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

The impact of glacier geometry on meltwater plume structure and submarine melt in Greenland fjords

Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet often drains subglacially into fjords, driving upwelling plumes at glacier termini. Ocean models and observations of submarine termini suggest that plumes enhance melt and undercutting, leading to calving and potential glacier destabilization. Here we systematically evaluate how simulated plume structure and submarine melt during summer months depends on realistic ranges of subglacial discharge, glacier depth, and ocean stratification from 12 Greenland fjords. Our results show that grounding line depth is a strong control on plume-induced submarine melt: deep glaciers produce warm, salty subsurface plumes that undercut termini, and shallow glaciers produce cold, fresh surface-trapped plumes that can overcut termini. Due to sustained upwelling velocities, plumes in cold, shallow fjords can induce equivalent depth-averaged melt rates compared to warm, deep fjords. These results detail a direct ocean-ice feedback that can affect the Greenland Ice Sheet

Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models

Projection of the contribution of ice sheets to sea level change as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) takes the form of simulations from coupled ice sheet–climate models and stand-alone ice sheet models, overseen by the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). This paper describes the experimental setup for process-based sea level change projections to be performed with stand-alone Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet models in the context of ISMIP6. The ISMIP6 protocol relies on a suite of polar atmospheric and oceanic CMIP-based forcing for ice sheet models, in order to explore the uncertainty in projected sea level change due to future emissions scenarios, CMIP models, ice sheet models, and parameterizations for ice–ocean interactions. We describe here the approach taken for defining the suite of ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet simulations, document the experimental framework and implementation, and present an overview of the ISMIP6 forcing to be used by participating ice sheet modeling groups

The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: A multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6

The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global mean sea-level rise today and is expected to continue to lose mass as the Arctic continues to warm. The two predominant mass loss mechanisms are increased surface meltwater run-off and mass loss associated with the retreat of marine-terminating outlet glaciers. In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by output from a representative subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century. The simulations are part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6).We estimate the sea-level contribution together with uncertainties due to future climate forcing, ice sheet model formulations and ocean forcing for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The results indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass in both scenarios until 2100, with contributions of 90-50 and 32-17mm to sea-level rise for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The largest mass loss is expected from the south-west of Greenland, which is governed by surface mass balance changes, continuing what is already observed today. Because the contributions are calculated against an unforced control experiment, these numbers do not include any committed mass loss, i.e. mass loss that would occur over the coming century if the climate forcing remained constant. Under RCP8.5 forcing, ice sheet model uncertainty explains an ensemble spread of 40 mm, while climate model uncertainty and ocean forcing uncertainty account for a spread of 36 and 19 mm, respectively. Apart from those formally derived uncertainty ranges, the largest gap in our knowledge is about the physical understanding and implementation of the calving process, i.e. the interaction of the ice sheet with the ocean. © Author(s) 2020

Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming

Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming