Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The Scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date

Scotland observed an unusual influenza A(H3N2)- dominated 2017/18 influenza season with healthcare services under significant pressure. We report the application of the moving epidemic method (MEM) to virology data as a tool to predict the influenza peak activity period and peak week of swab positivity in the current season. This novel MEM application has been successful locally and is believed to be of potential use to other countries for healthcare planning and building wider community resilience

Segmentation and Evaluation of Adipose Tissue from Whole Body MRI Scans

Accurate quantification of total body and the distribution of regional adipose tissue using manual segmentation is a challenging problem due to the high variation between manual delineations. Manual segmentation also requires highly trained experts with knowledge of anatomy. We present a hybrid segmentation method that provides robust delineation results for adipose tissue from whole body MRI scans. A formal evaluation of accuracy of the segmentation method is performed. This semi-automatic segmentation algorithm reduces significantly the time required for quantification of adipose tissue, and the accuracy measurements show that the results are close to the ground truth obtained from manual segmentations

Prediction of Mechanical Properties of Polymers With Various Force Fields

The effect of force field type on the predicted elastic properties of a polyimide is examined using a multiscale modeling technique. Molecular Dynamics simulations are used to predict the atomic structure and elastic properties of the polymer by subjecting a representative volume element of the material to bulk and shear finite deformations. The elastic properties of the polyimide are determined using three force fields: AMBER, OPLS-AA, and MM3. The predicted values of Young s modulus and shear modulus of the polyimide are compared with experimental values. The results indicate that the mechanical properties of the polyimide predicted with the OPLS-AA force field most closely matched those from experiment. The results also indicate that while the complexity of the force field does not have a significant effect on the accuracy of predicted properties, small differences in the force constants and the functional form of individual terms in the force fields determine the accuracy of the force field in predicting the elastic properties of the polyimide

Modified-release hydrocortisone in congenital adrenal hyperplasia

Context Standard glucocorticoid therapy in congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) regularly fails to control androgen excess, causing glucocorticoid overexposure and poor health outcomes. Objective We investigated whether modified-release hydrocortisone (MR-HC), which mimics physiologic cortisol secretion, could improve disease control. Methods A 6-month, randomized, phase 3 study was conducted of MR-HC vs standard glucocorticoid, followed by a single-arm MR-HC extension study. Primary outcomes were change in 24-hour SD score (SDS) of androgen precursor 17-hydroxyprogesterone (17OHP) for phase 3, and efficacy, safety and tolerability of MR-HC for the extension study. Results The phase 3 study recruited 122 adult CAH patients. Although the study failed its primary outcome at 6 months, there was evidence of better biochemical control on MR-HC, with lower 17OHP SDS at 4 (P = .007) and 12 (P = .019) weeks, and between 07:00h to 15:00h (P = .044) at 6 months. The percentage of patients with controlled 09:00h serum 17OHP (< 1200 ng/dL) was 52% at baseline, at 6 months 91% for MR-HC and 71% for standard therapy (P = .002), and 80% for MR-HC at 18 months’ extension. The median daily hydrocortisone dose was 25 mg at baseline, at 6 months 31 mg for standard therapy, and 30 mg for MR-HC, and after 18 months 20 mg MR-HC. Three adrenal crises occurred in phase 3, none on MR-HC and 4 in the extension study. MR-HC resulted in patient-reported benefit including menses restoration in 8 patients (1 on standard therapy), and 3 patient and 4 partner pregnancies (none on standard therapy). Conclusion MR-HC improved biochemical disease control in adults with reduction in steroid dose over time and patient-reported benefit

Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH) – a community perspective

This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through on-line media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focussed on process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come