A new archive of large volcanic events over the past millennium derived from reconstructed summer temperatures

Information about past volcanic impact on climate is mostly derived from historic documentary data and sulfate depositions in polar ice sheets. Although these archives have provided important insights into the Earth's volcanic eruption history, the climate forcing and exact dating of many events is still vague. Here we apply a new method of break detection to the first millennium-length maximum latewood density reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures to develop an alternative record of large volcanic eruptions. The analysis returns fourteen outstanding cooling events, all of which agree well with recently developed volcanic forcing records from high-resolution bipolar ice cores. In some cases, however, the climatic impact detected with our new method peaks in neighboring years, likely due to either dating errors in the polar ice cores or uncertainty in the interpretation of atmospheric aerosol transport to polar ice core locations. The most apparent mismatches between forcing and cooling estimates occur in the 1450s and 1690s. Application of the algorithm to two additional and recently developed reconstructions that blend maximum latewood density and ring width data reproduces twelve of the detected events among which eight are retrieved in all three of the dendroclimatic reconstructions. Collectively, the new estimates of volcanic activity with precise age control provide independent evidence for forcing records during the last millennium. Evaluating the cooling magnitude in response to detected events yields an upper benchmark for the volcanic impact on climate. The average response to the ten major events in the density derived reconstruction is −0.60 °C ± 0.13 °C. Other last millennium temperature records from proxies and model simulations reveal higher cooling estimates, which is, to some degree, related to the very different high frequency variance in these timeseries

High-resolution temperature variability reconstructed from black pine tree ring densities in Southern Spain

The presence of an ancient, high-elevation pine forest in the Natural Park of Sierras de Cazorla in southern Spain, including some trees reaching &gt;700 years, stimulated efforts to develop high-resolution temperature reconstructions in an otherwise drought-dominated region. Here, we present a reconstruction of spring and fall temperature variability derived from black pine tree ring maximum densities reaching back to 1350 Coefficient of Efficiency (CE). The reconstruction is accompanied by large uncertainties resulting from low interseries correlations among the single trees and a limited number of reliable instrumental stations in the study region. The reconstructed temperature history reveals warm conditions during the early 16th and 19th centuries that were of similar magnitude to the warm temperatures recorded since the late 20th century. A sharp transition from cold conditions in the late 18th century (t1781–1810 = −1.15 °C ± 0.64 °C) to warm conditions in the early 19th century (t1818–1847 = −0.06 °C ± 0.49 °C) is centered around the 1815 Tambora eruption (t1816 = −2.1 °C ± 0.55 °C). The new reconstruction from southern Spain correlates significantly with high-resolution temperature histories from the Pyrenees located ~600 km north of the Cazorla Natural Park, an association that is temporally stable over the past 650 years (r1350–2005 &gt; 0.3, p &lt; 0.0001) and particularly strong in the high-frequency domain (rHF &gt; 0.4). Yet, only a few of the reconstructed cold extremes (1453, 1601, 1816) coincide with large volcanic eruptions, suggesting that the severe cooling events in southern Spain are controlled by internal dynamics rather than external (volcanic) forcing.</jats:p

Regulatory T Cell Suppression of Gag-Specific CD8+ T Cell Polyfunctional Response After Therapeutic Vaccination of HIV-1-Infected Patients on ART

We tested the hypothesis that therapeutic vaccination against HIV-1 can increase the frequency and suppressive function of regulatory, CD4+ T cells (Treg), thereby masking enhancement of HIV-1-specific CD8+ T cell response. HIV-1-infected subjects on antiretroviral therapy (N = 17) enrolled in a phase I therapeutic vaccine trial received 2 doses of autologous dendritic cells (DC) loaded with HIV-1 peptides. The frequency of CD4+CD25hiFOXP3+ Treg in blood was determined prior to and after vaccination in subjects and normal controls. Polyfunctional CD8+ T cell responses were determined pre- and post-vaccine (N = 7) for 5 immune mediators after in vitro stimulation with Gag peptide, staphylococcal enterotoxin B (SEB), or medium alone. Total vaccine response (post-vaccine–pre-vaccine) was compared in the Treg(+) and Treg-depleted (Treg-) sets. After vaccination, 12/17 subjects showed a trend of increased Treg frequency (P = 0.06) from 0.74% to 1.2%. The increased frequency did not correlate with CD8+ T cell vaccine response by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay for interferon γ production. Although there was no significant change in CD8+ T cell polyfunctional response after vaccination, Treg depletion increased the polyfunctionality of the total vaccine response (P = 0.029), with a >2-fold increase in the percentage of CD8+ T cells producing multiple immune mediators. In contrast, depletion of Treg did not enhance polyfunctional T cell response to SEB, implying specificity of suppression to HIV-1 Gag. Therapeutic immunization with a DC-based vaccine against HIV-1 caused a modest increase in Treg frequency and a significant increase in HIV-1-specific, Treg suppressive function. The Treg suppressive effect masked an increase in the vaccine-induced anti-HIV-1-specific polyfunctional response. The role of Treg should be considered in immunotherapeutic trials of HIV-1 infection

Modernizing and Expanding the NASA Space Geodesy Network to Meet Future Geodetic Requirements

NASA maintains and operates a global network of Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI), Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR), and Global Navigation Satellite System ground stations as part of the NASA Space Geodesy Program. The NASA Space Geodesy Network (NSGN) provides the geodetic products that support Earth observations and the related science requirements as outlined by the US National Research Council (NRC in Precise geodetic infrastructure: national requirements for a shared resource, National Academies Press, Washington, 2010. http://nap.edu/12954, Thriving on our changing planet: a decadal strategy for Earth observation from space, National Academies Press, Washington, 2018. http://nap.edu/24938). The Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) and the NRC have set an ambitious goal of improving the Terrestrial Reference Frame to have an accuracy of 1 mm and stability of 0.1 mm per year, an order of magnitude beyond current capabilities. NASA and its partners within GGOS are addressing this challenge by planning and implementing modern geodetic stations colocated at existing and new sites around the world. In 2013, NASA demonstrated the performance of its next-generation systems at the prototype next-generation core site at NASAs Goddard Geophysical and Astronomical Observatory in Greenbelt, Maryland. Implementation of a new broadband VLBI station in Hawaii was completed in 2016. NASA is currently implementing new VLBI and SLR stations in Texas and is planning the replacement of its other aging domestic and international legacy stations. In this article, we describe critical gaps in the current global network and discuss how the new NSGN will expand the global geodetic coverage and ultimately improve the geodetic products. We also describe the characteristics of a modern NSGN site and the capabilities of the next-generation NASA SLR and VLBI systems. Finally, we outline the plans for efficiently operating the NSGN by centralizing and automating the operations of the new geodetic stations

Climate-induced severe water scarcity events as harbinger of global grain price

The severe water scarcity (SWS) concept allows for consistent analysis of the supply and demand for water sourced grain production worldwide. Thus, the primary advantage of using SWS is its ability to simultaneously accommodate the spatial extent and temporal persistence of droughts using climatic data. The SWS concept was extended here to drivers of global grain prices using past SWS events and prices of three dominant grain crops: wheat, rice and maize. A significant relation between the SWS affected area and the prices of wheat was confirmed. The past price–SWS association was then used to project future wheat prices considering likely climate change scenarios until 2050 and expected SWS extent. The projected wheat prices increase with increasing SWS area that is in turn a function of greenhouse gas emissions. The need to act to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is again reinforced assuming the SWS-price relation for wheat is unaltered

Priming Immunization with DNA Augments Immunogenicity of Recombinant Adenoviral Vectors for Both HIV-1 Specific Antibody and T-Cell Responses

Induction of HIV-1-specific T-cell responses relevant to diverse subtypes is a major goal of HIV vaccine development. Prime-boost regimens using heterologous gene-based vaccine vectors have induced potent, polyfunctional T cell responses in preclinical studies.The first opportunity to evaluate the immunogenicity of DNA priming followed by recombinant adenovirus serotype 5 (rAd5) boosting was as open-label rollover trials in subjects who had been enrolled in prior studies of HIV-1 specific DNA vaccines. All subjects underwent apheresis before and after rAd5 boosting to characterize in depth the T cell and antibody response induced by the heterologous DNA/rAd5 prime-boost combination.rAd5 boosting was well-tolerated with no serious adverse events. Compared to DNA or rAd5 vaccine alone, sequential DNA/rAd5 administration induced 7-fold higher magnitude Env-biased HIV-1-specific CD8(+) T-cell responses and 100-fold greater antibody titers measured by ELISA. There was no significant neutralizing antibody activity against primary isolates. Vaccine-elicited CD4(+) and CD8(+) T-cells expressed multiple functions and were predominantly long-term (CD127(+)) central or effector memory T cells and that persisted in blood for >6 months. Epitopes mapped in Gag and Env demonstrated partial cross-clade recognition.Heterologous prime-boost using vector-based gene delivery of vaccine antigens is a potent immunization strategy for inducing both antibody and T-cell responses.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00102089, NCT00108654

Causes and Consequences of Past and Projected Scandinavian Summer Temperatures, 500–2100 AD

Tree rings dominate millennium-long temperature reconstructions and many records originate from Scandinavia, an area for which the relative roles of external forcing and internal variation on climatic changes are, however, not yet fully understood. Here we compile 1,179 series of maximum latewood density measurements from 25 conifer sites in northern Scandinavia, establish a suite of 36 subset chronologies, and analyse their climate signal. A new reconstruction for the 1483–2006 period correlates at 0.80 with June–August temperatures back to 1860. Summer cooling during the early 17th century and peak warming in the 1930s translate into a decadal amplitude of 2.9°C, which agrees with existing Scandinavian tree-ring proxies. Climate model simulations reveal similar amounts of mid to low frequency variability, suggesting that internal ocean-atmosphere feedbacks likely influenced Scandinavian temperatures more than external forcing. Projected 21st century warming under the SRES A2 scenario would, however, exceed the reconstructed temperature envelope of the past 1,500 years

The IPCC’s reductive Common Era temperature history

J.E. acknowledges support by the Gutenberg Research College, J.E. M.T. and U.B. by the project AdAgrif (CZ.02.01.01/00/22_008/0004635) and ERC (AdG 882727), J.E.S. by the US NSF (OISE-1743738, AGS-2101214 and AGS-2303352), K.J.A. by the US NSF (AGS-1803946 and AGS-2102993), K.A. by the ARC (FT200100102), R.D. by the US NSF (OPP-2112314, OPP-2124885, and AGS-2102759), S.G and M. Stoffel by the SNSF (Sinergia CRSII5_183571), F.C.L. by the SRC (grant no. 2018-01272), Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation (grant no. MMW 2022-0114) and Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study (Pro Futura Scientia XIII Fellow), LS by the German Research Foundation (SCHN 1645/1-1), M. Sigl by the ERC (CoG 820047), and R.W. by the NSF-NERC (NE/W007223/1).Common Era temperature variability has been a prominent component in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports over the last several decades and was twice featured in their Summary for Policymakers. A single reconstruction of mean Northern Hemisphere temperature variability was first highlighted in the 2001 Summary for Policymakers, despite other estimates that existed at the time. Subsequent reports assessed many large-scale temperature reconstructions, but the entirety of Common Era temperature history in the most recent Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was restricted to a single estimate of mean annual global temperatures. We argue that this focus on a single reconstruction is an insufficient summary of our understanding of temperature variability over the Common Era. We provide a complementary perspective by offering an alternative assessment of the state of our understanding in high-resolution paleoclimatology for the Common Era and call for future reports to present a more accurate and comprehensive assessment of our knowledge about this important period of human and climate history.Peer reviewe

European summer temperatures since Roman times

The spatial context is critical when assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding frequency and severity in the long-term perspective. Recent initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatio-temporal scales. We provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer temperature fields back to 755 CE based on a Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on Composite-plus-Scaling. Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and Little Ice Age are larger in reconstructions than simulations. This may indicate either inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity to external forcing on sub-hemispheric scales in the climate models and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales including the representation of internal feedback mechanisms