A Parameter Estimation and Identifiability Analysis Methodology Applied to a Street Canyon Air Pollution Model

Mathematical models are increasingly used in environmental science thus increasing the importance of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. In the present study, an iterative parameter estimation and identifiability analysis methodology is applied to an atmospheric model – the Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPMr). To assess the predictive validity of the model, the data is split into an estimation and a prediction data set using two data splitting approaches and data preparation techniques (clustering and outlier detection) are analysed. The sensitivity analysis, being part of the identifiability analysis, showed that some model parameters were significantly more sensitive than others. The application of the determined optimal parameter values was shown to succesfully equilibrate the model biases among the individual streets and species. It was as well shown that the frequentist approach applied for the uncertainty calculations underestimated the parameter uncertainties. The model parameter uncertainty was qualitatively assessed to be significant, and reduction strategies were identified

Modelled atmospheric contribution to nitrogen eutrophication in the English Channel and the Southern North Sea

Eutrophication of the coastal waters results in algal blooms which may be harmful to the marine ecosystem and coastal economy. The main sources of nutrients are the rivers but an unquantified amount of nitrogen is also transported from ground sources via the atmosphere and deposited to the sea directly by rain and turbulent diffusion. A Lagrangian Particle Dispersion (LPD) model based on the open source code FLEXPART (http://flexpart.eu) is described that quantifies the dissolved nitrogen coming from the air in the English Channel and Southern North Sea (the ‘2Seas’ geographical region). The model uses meteorological records, emissions data and LPD computations to simulate the motion and deposition of nitrogen compounds. The emission sources contributing to the deposition are individually identified, and calculated concentrations are compared with ground measurements in selected locations. The highest calculated atmospheric depositions to the sea in the considered region are found to be along the Belgium–Netherlands coast

Biomass burning in eastern Europe during spring 2006 caused high deposition of ammonium in northern Fennoscandia

High air concentrations of ammonium were detected at low and high altitude sites in Sweden, Finland and Norway during the spring 2006, coinciding with polluted air from biomass burning in eastern Europe passing over central and northern Fennoscandia. Unusually high values for throughfall deposition of ammonium were detected at one low altitude site and several high altitude sites in north Sweden. The occurrence of the high ammonium in throughfall differed between the summer months 2006, most likely related to the timing of precipitation events. The ammonia dry deposition may have contributed to unusual visible injuries on the tree vegetation in northern Fennoscandia that occurred during 2006, in combination with high ozone concentrations. It is concluded that long-range transport of ammonium from large-scale biomass burning may contribute substantially to the nitrogen load at northern latitudes. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Reducing nitrous oxide emissions by changing N fertiliser use from calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) to urea based formulations

This research was financially supported under the National Development Plan, through the Research Stimulus Fund, administered by the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine (Grant numbers RSF10-/RD/SC/716 and RSF11S138) and from the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (Ref: DARD Evidence and Innovation project 13/04/06) for Northern Ireland. The first author gratefully acknowledges funding received from the Teagasc Walsh Fellowship Scheme (Ref: 2012005).peer-reviewedThe accelerating use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilisers, to meet the world's growing food demand, is the primary driver for increased atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide (N2O). The IPCC default emission factor (EF) for N2O from soils is 1% of the N applied, irrespective of its form. However, N2O emissions tend to be higher from nitrate-containing fertilisers e.g. calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) compared to urea, particularly in regions, which have mild, wet climates and high organic matter soils. Urea can be an inefficient N source due to NH3 volatilisation, but nitrogen stabilisers (urease and nitrification inhibitors) can improve its efficacy. This study evaluated the impact of switching fertiliser formulation from calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) to urea-based products, as a potential mitigation strategy to reduce N2O emissions at six temperate grassland sites on the island of Ireland. The surface applied formulations included CAN, urea and urea with the urease inhibitor N-(n-butyl) thiophosphoric triamide (NBPT) and/or the nitrification inhibitor dicyandiamide (DCD). Results showed that N2O emissions were significantly affected by fertiliser formulation, soil type and climatic conditions. The direct N2O emission factor (EF) from CAN averaged 1.49% overall sites, but was highly variable, ranging from 0.58% to 3.81. Amending urea with NBPT, to reduce ammonia volatilisation, resulted in an average EF of 0.40% (ranging from 0.21 to 0.69%)-compared to an average EF of 0.25% for urea (ranging from 0.1 to 0.49%), with both fertilisers significantly lower and less variable than CAN. Cumulative N2O emissions from urea amended with both NBPT and DCD were not significantly different from background levels. Switching from CAN to stabilised urea formulations was found to be an effective strategy to reduce N2O emissions, particularly in wet, temperate grassland.Department of Agriculture and Rural Development for Northern IrelandTeagasc Walsh Fellowship ProgrammeDepartment of Agriculture, Food and the Marin

Source contribution to the bulk atmospheric deposition of minor and trace elements in a Northern Spanish coastal urban area

Mo, Ni, Pb, Ti, V and Zn was investigated in Santander, a Northern Spanish coastal city. Bulk deposition samples were collected monthly for three years using a bottle/funnel device. Taking into account that heavy metals are bioavailable only in their soluble forms, water-soluble and water-insoluble fractions were evaluated separately for element concentration. The fluxes of the studied elements in the bulk deposition exhibited the following order: Zn>Mn>>Cu>Cr>Pb>V>Ni>>As>Mo>Cd. The fluxes of Zn and Mn were more than 10 times higher than those of the other elements, withmaximumvalues of 554.5 and 334.1 µg m-2 day-1, respectively. Low solubilities (below 22%) were found for Cr, Ti and Pb, whereas the highest solubility was found for Zn (78%). With the exception of Cu, all of the studied metals in the water-soluble fraction of the atmospheric deposition showed seasonal dependence, due to the seasonal variability of precipitation. The enrichment factors (EFs) of Cu, Cd and Zn were higher than 100, indicating a clear anthropogenic origin. The EF of Mn (50) was below 100, but an exclusively industrial origin is suggested. Positive Matrix Factorisation (PMF) was used for the source apportionment of the studiedminor and trace elements in the soluble fraction. Four factors were identified from PMF, and their chemical profiles were compared with those calculated from known sources that were previously identified in Santander Bay: two industrial sources, the first of which was characterised by Zn and Mn, which contributes 62.5% of the total deposition flux of the studied elements; a traffic source; and a maritime source. Zinc and Mn are considered to be the most characteristic pollutants of the studied area.The authors are grateful for the financial support from the CTM 2010-16068 project (Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation)

Life cycle assessment of European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) landed by purse seine vessels in northern Spain

Purpose: The main purpose of this article is to assess the environmental impacts associated with the fishing operations related to European anchovy fishing in Cantabria (northern Spain) under a life cycle approach. Methods: The life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology was applied for this case study including construction, maintenance, use, and end of life of the vessels. The functional unit used was 1 kg of landed round anchovy at port. Inventory data were collected for the main inputs and outputs of 32 vessels, representing a majority of vessels in the fleet. Results and discussion: Results indicated, in a similar line to what is reported in the literature, that the production, transportation, and use of diesel were the main environmental hot spots in conventional impact categories. Moreover, in this case, the production and transportation of seine nets was also relevant. Impacts linked to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions suggest that emissions were in the upper range for fishing species captured with seine nets and the value of global warming potential (GWP) was 1.44 kg CO2 eq per functional unit. The ecotoxicity impacts were mainly due to the emissions of antifouling substances to the ocean. Regarding fishery-specific categories, many were discarded given the lack of detailed stock assessments for this fishery. Hence, only the biotic resource use category was computed, demonstrating that the ecosystems' effort to sustain the fishery is relatively low. Conclusions: The use of the LCA methodology allowed identifying the main environmental hot spots of the purse seining fleet targeting European anchovy in Cantabria. Individualized results per port or per vessel suggested that there are significant differences in GHG emissions between groups. In addition, fuel use is high when compared to similar fisheries. Therefore, research needs to be undertaken to identify why fuel use is so high, particularly if it is related to biomass and fisheries management or if skipper decisions could play a role.The authors thank the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness of the Spanish Government for their financial support via the project GeSAC-Conserva: Sustainable Management of the Cantabrian Anchovies (CTM2013-43539-R) and to Pedro Villanueva-Rey for valuable scientific exchange. Jara Laso thanks the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness of Spanish Government for their financial support via the research fellowship BES-2014-069368 and to the Ministry of Rural Environment, Fisheries and Food of Cantabria for the data support. Dr. Ian Vázquez-Rowe thanks the Peruvian LCA Network for operational support. Reviewers are also thanked for the valuable and detailed suggestions. The work of Dr. Rosa M. Crujeiras has been funded by MTM2016-76969P (AEI/FEDER, UE)

Characterizing the tropospheric ozone response to methane emission controls and the benefits to climate and air quality

Reducing methane (CH4) emissions is an attractive option for jointly addressing climate and ozone (O3) air quality goals. With multidecadal full-chemistry transient simulations in the MOZART-2 tropospheric chemistry model, we show that tropospheric O3 responds approximately linearly to changes in CH4 emissions over a range of anthropogenic emissions from 0–430 Tg CH4 a−1 (0.11–0.16 Tg tropospheric O3 or ∼11–15 ppt global mean surface O3 decrease per Tg a−1 CH4 reduced). We find that neither the air quality nor climate benefits depend strongly on the location of the CH4 emission reductions, implying that the lowest cost emission controls can be targeted. With a series of future (2005–2030) transient simulations, we demonstrate that cost-effective CH4 controls would offset the positive climate forcing from CH4 and O3 that would otherwise occur (from increases in NOx and CH4 emissions in the baseline scenario) and improve O3 air quality. We estimate that anthropogenic CH4 contributes 0.7 Wm−2 to climate forcing and ∼4 ppb to surface O3 in 2030 under the baseline scenario. Although the response of surface O3 to CH4 is relatively uniform spatially compared to that from other O3 precursors, it is strongest in regions where surface air mixes frequently with the free troposphere and where the local O3 formation regime is NOx-saturated. In the model, CH4 oxidation within the boundary layer (below ∼2.5 km) contributes more to surface O3 than CH4 oxidation in the free troposphere. In NOx-saturated regions, the surface O3 sensitivity to CH4 can be twice that of the global mean, with >70% of this sensitivity resulting from boundary layer oxidation of CH4. Accurately representing the NOx distribution is thus crucial for quantifying the O3 sensitivity to CH4

Residential exposure to motor vehicle emissions and the risk of wheezing among 7-8 year-old schoolchildren: a city-wide cross-sectional study in Nicosia, Cyprus

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Several studies have reported associations between respiratory outcomes in children and a range of self-reported, administrative or geographical indicators of traffic pollution. First-time investigation into the frequency of asthmatic symptoms among 7-8 year-old Cypriot children in 1999-2000 showed increased prevalence in the capital Nicosia compared to other areas. Geographical differences on an island the size of Cyprus may reflect environmental and/or lifestyle factors. This study investigates the relationship between self-reported symptoms and residential exposure to motor vehicle emissions among Nicosia schoolchildren.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The addresses of children in the metropolitan area of Nicosia who participated in the original survey (N = 1,735) were geo-coded and the level of exposure of each child was assessed using distance- and emission-based indicators (i.e. estimated levels of particulate matter and nitrogen oxides emissions due to motor vehicles on main roads around the residence). Odds ratios of wheezing and asthma diagnosis in relation to levels of exposure were estimated in logistic regression models adjusting for person-based factors, co-morbidity and intra-school clustering.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found an increased risk of wheezing at distances less than 50 m from a main road and/or only among those experiencing the highest levels of exposure. The strongest effect estimates were observed when exposure was defined in terms of the cumulative burden at all roads around the residence. Adjusted odds ratios for current wheezing were 2.33 (95% CI 1.27, 4.30) amongst the quartile of participants exposed to the highest levels of PM at all roads 50 m of their residence and 2.14 (95% CI 1.05, 4.35) for NOx, with no effect at intermediate levels of exposure. While the direction of effect was apparent at longer distances, differences were generally not statistically significant.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Children experiencing the highest burden of emissions in Nicosia seem to be at a higher risk of reporting asthmatic symptoms. Due to the small number of children residing at close proximity to main roads and lack of evidence of risk at intermediate levels of exposure or longer distances, the observed pattern alone does not explain the generally higher prevalence observed in urban Nicosia compared to other areas.</p