Reinforcement Learning with Intrinsic Affinity for Personalized Asset Management

The common purpose of applying reinforcement learning (RL) to asset management is the maximization of profit. The extrinsic reward function used to learn an optimal strategy typically does not take into account any other preferences or constraints. We have developed a regularization method that ensures that strategies have global intrinsic affinities, i.e., different personalities may have preferences for certain assets which may change over time. We capitalize on these intrinsic policy affinities to make our RL model inherently interpretable. We demonstrate how RL agents can be trained to orchestrate such individual policies for particular personality profiles and still achieve high returns

Reinforcement learning with intrinsic affinity for personalized prosperity management

The purpose of applying reinforcement learning (RL) to portfolio management is commonly the maximization of profit. The extrinsic reward function used to learn an optimal strategy typically does not take into account any other preferences or constraints. We have developed a regularization method that ensures that strategies have global intrinsic affinities, i.e., different personalities may have preferences for certain asset classes which may change over time. We capitalize on these intrinsic policy affinities to make our RL model inherently interpretable. We demonstrate how RL agents can be trained to orchestrate such individual policies for particular personality profiles and still achieve high returns.publishedVersio

Can Interpretable Reinforcement Learning Manage Prosperity Your Way?

Personalisation of products and services is fast becoming the driver of success in banking and commerce. Machine learning holds the promise of gaining a deeper understanding of and tailoring to customers’ needs and preferences. Whereas traditional solutions to financial decision problems frequently rely on model assumptions, reinforcement learning is able to exploit large amounts of data to improve customer modelling and decision-making in complex financial environments with fewer assumptions. Model explainability and interpretability present challenges from a regulatory perspective which demands transparency for acceptance; they also offer the opportunity for improved insight into and understanding of customers. Post-hoc approaches are typically used for explaining pretrained reinforcement learning models. Based on our previous modeling of customer spending behaviour, we adapt our recent reinforcement learning algorithm that intrinsically characterizes desirable behaviours and we transition to the problem of prosperity management. We train inherently interpretable reinforcement learning agents to give investment advice that is aligned with prototype financial personality traits which are combined to make a final recommendation. We observe that the trained agents’ advice adheres to their intended characteristics, they learn the value of compound growth, and, without any explicit reference, the notion of risk as well as improved policy convergence.publishedVersio

Reinforcement Learning Your Way : Agent Characterization through Policy Regularization

The increased complexity of state-of-the-art reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms has resulted in an opacity that inhibits explainability and understanding. This has led to the development of several post hoc explainability methods that aim to extract information from learned policies, thus aiding explainability. These methods rely on empirical observations of the policy, and thus aim to generalize a characterization of agents’ behaviour. In this study, we have instead developed a method to imbue agents’ policies with a characteristic behaviour through regularization of their objective functions. Our method guides the agents’ behaviour during learning, which results in an intrinsic characterization; it connects the learning process with model explanation. We provide a formal argument and empirical evidence for the viability of our method. In future work, we intend to employ it to develop agents that optimize individual financial customers’ investment portfolios based on their spending personalities.publishedVersio

Clustering in Recurrent Neural Networks for Micro-Segmentation using Spending Personality

Author's accepted manuscript.© 2021 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.Customer segmentation has long been a productive field in banking. However, with new approaches to traditional problems come new opportunities. Fine-grained customer segments are notoriously elusive and one method of obtaining them is through feature extraction. It is possible to assign coefficients of standard personality traits to financial transaction classes aggregated over time. However, we have found that the clusters formed are not sufficiently discriminatory for micro-segmentation. In a novel approach, we extract temporal features with continuous values from the hidden states of neural networks predicting customers' spending personality from their financial transactions. We consider both temporal and non-sequential models, using long short-term memory (LSTM) and feed-forward neural networks, respectively. We found that recurrent neural networks produce micro-segments where feed-forward networks produce only coarse segments. Finally, we show that classification using these extracted features performs at least as well as bespoke models on two common metrics, namely loan default rate and customer liquidity index.acceptedVersio

Clustering in Recurrent Neural Networks for Micro-Segmentation using Spending Personality

Author's accepted manuscript.© 2021 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.Customer segmentation has long been a productive field in banking. However, with new approaches to traditional problems come new opportunities. Fine-grained customer segments are notoriously elusive and one method of obtaining them is through feature extraction. It is possible to assign coefficients of standard personality traits to financial transaction classes aggregated over time. However, we have found that the clusters formed are not sufficiently discriminatory for micro-segmentation. In a novel approach, we extract temporal features with continuous values from the hidden states of neural networks predicting customers' spending personality from their financial transactions. We consider both temporal and non-sequential models, using long short-term memory (LSTM) and feed-forward neural networks, respectively. We found that recurrent neural networks produce micro-segments where feed-forward networks produce only coarse segments. Finally, we show that classification using these extracted features performs at least as well as bespoke models on two common metrics, namely loan default rate and customer liquidity index.acceptedVersio

Renosterveld Conservation in South Africa: A Case Study for Handling Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Neural Networks for Environmental Management

This work presents an artificial intelligence method for the development of decision support systems for environmental management and demonstrates its strengths using an example from the domain of biodiversity and conservation biology. The approach takes into account local expert knowledge together with collected field data about plant habitats in order to identify areas which show potential for conserving thriving areas of Renosterveld vegetation and areas that are best suited for agriculture. The available data is limited and cannot be adequately explained by expert knowledge alone. The paradigm combines expert knowledge about the local conditions with the collected ground truth in a knowledge-based neural network. The integration of symbolic knowledge with artificial neural networks is becoming an. increasingly popular paradigm for solving real-world applications. The paradigm provides means for using prior knowledge to determine the network architecture, to program a subset of weights to induce a learning bias which guides network training, and to extract knowledge from trained networks; it thus provides a methodology for dealing with uncertainty in the prior knowledge. The role of neural networks then becomes that of knowledge refinement. The open question on how to determine the strength of the inductive bias of programmed weights is addressed by presenting a heuristic which takes the network architecture and training algorithm, the prior knowledge, and the training data into consideration